Brewers in front with Nationals for Carl Pavano?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Guys we've missed on so many picks, I'm not saying Pavano is the answer but I think the picks are thought to be more valued than they should be on this board by many.

[jwill535]

You also have to factor in that we will have two 1st round picks to pay, plus a potential sandwich pick. You have to figure that they wont be upset missing out on another high pick to pay.

[Schlitz001]

Gallardo was a pretty good second round pick and so was JJ Hardy. I agree that prospects are a gamble, but you can't win if you don't play. I don't want Pavano in the rotation for reasons already stated in this thread. Forfeiting the pick is just reinforcement. I envision that Pavano will be overpaid by whoever signs him because after Lee he is being branded as the best FA pitcher available. I'd rather see DM sign a high risk, high reward, low price tag pitcher or make another trade.

[HiAndTight]

In 2005 he had shoulder problems, in 2006 he had back problems. 2007 and 2008 were due to the TJ surgery. You would probably need some proof that it was a conditioning problem though given just how often pitchers get hurt.

 

My opinion isn't based totally on that 4 year stretch. The fact that he didn't start that many games at the beginning of his career, and finally got healthy the two years before he became a FA is suspicious to me. Sure, pitchers get hurt, but how many good starters pitched as rarely as he has throughout his career? I just find it hard to believe that a pitcher has started 30 games 4 times in his 12 year career, 3 of those times he was playing for a contract, and it is a complete coincidence.

You should look into the issue the Yankees and Pavano had when Pavano pitched through injuries because he was putting so much pressure on himself to live up to his contract and ended up hurting himself worse.

 

I don't know him as a person, but that right there, a stupid thing to do, but it tells me he's not TRYING to stay off the mound...just the opposite rather. I believe it was some rib injury that ended up putting him out for the rest of one of the years. Happened while he was rehabbing.

 

 

The pressure of playing in NY and getting hurt may well have caused him to press and cause other injuries as a result.

[paul253]

I didn't realize Pavano was a Type A free agent. If we sign him we'd have to give up our second round pick. I realize we may have three picks before that but it just makes me want Pavano even less than I already do. We need to restock our farm system and giving up a second round pick to sign aging starters isn't a good way to do that. Not unless we can sign him to a one year deal and hope he stays a Type A free agent.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers already have two guys as we stand that would be #3/#4 starters on a good team in Marcum/Wolf. I see no need to overpay to get another one. If you are willing to shell out eight figures, you had better add a guy who can be a #1/#2. It seems like Garza is the only realistic option for that now, though Greinke would fit as well if Melvin is willing to pillage the prospect base.

[Warning Track Power]

The Brewers already have two guys as we stand that would be #3/#4 starters on a good team in Marcum/Wolf. I see no need to overpay to get another one. If you are willing to shell out eight figures, you had better add a guy who can be a #1/#2. It seems like Garza is the only realistic option for that now, though Greinke would fit as well if Melvin is willing to pillage the prospect base.

You don't consider Shields as a legit #1/#2?

 

 

[paul253]

You don't consider Shields as a legit #1/#2?

 

I'd be ok with Shields but I'd much rather have Garza. Shields had a terrible year last year. He should be able to be gotten for less than it would take to get Garza. Shields, in my opinion, is not a 1 or 2. If you're willing to give up what it takes to get Shields, you may as well add a little more and get Garza.

[RockCoCougars]

Guys hit Shields too well for my taste- .294 BAA last year.

[trwi7]

Guys hit Shields too well for my taste- .294 BAA last year.

 

And the previous three years were .275, .254 and .247. I don't think either is a bad target, but I'd prefer Shields. Possibly another year of control as well as buying low.

 

Some comparisons between Garza and Shields. I'm not using Shields' 2010 season to show just how similar they are.

 

Garza - 3.86 ERA

Shields - 4.01 ERA

 

Garza - 3.05 BB/9

Shields 1.93 BB/9

 

Garza - 7.10 K/9

Shields - 7.15 K/9

 

Garza - 1.09 HR/9

Shields - 1.15 HR/9

 

They're pretty much the same. The only difference between Shields' 2010 and his previous three seasons is a 3% drop in his LOB%, a .354 BABIP (career .314) and the highest HR/FB% of his career (13.8% 2010 to 11.7% career.) Now if you think that's an outlier, he's an excellent buy low candidate. If you think that's going to be a trend, you would probably want Garza instead. I think it's an outlier, so I'd be willing to gamble on Shields.

[DannoMac21]

Guys hit Shields too well for my taste- .294 BAA last year.

 

And the previous three years were .275, .254 and .247. I don't think either is a bad target, but I'd prefer Shields. Possibly another year of control as well as buying low.

 

Some comparisons between Garza and Shields. I'm not using Shields' 2010 season to show just how similar they are.

 

Garza - 3.86 ERA

Shields - 4.01 ERA

 

Garza - 3.05 BB/9

Shields 1.93 BB/9

 

Garza - 7.10 K/9

Shields - 7.15 K/9

 

Garza - 1.09 HR/9

Shields - 1.15 HR/9

 

They're pretty much the same. The only difference between Shields' 2010 and his previous three seasons is a 3% drop in his LOB%, a .354 BABIP (career .314) and the highest HR/FB% of his career (13.8% 2010 to 11.7% career.) Now if you think that's an outlier, he's an excellent buy low candidate. If you think that's going to be a trend, you would probably want Garza instead. I think it's an outlier, so I'd be willing to gamble on Shields.

Yeah...but even if the margin is slight...Garza pretty much outdoes Shields in most categories. And Garza's 2 years younger...and has consistently put up a sub 4 ERA. Garza's my first option, no question, IMO.

[Team Canada]

Before there's too large a tangent, remember there is a Garza thread...

[baybeachbum]

Does the fact that Carl Pavano hasn't already re-signed with the Twins mean that the Brewers have a legitimate chance to sign him?

 

It just seems that the longer it takes, the better the chances he signs with the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

The only way the Brewers get him is that they offer him a 3 year deal.

[baybeachbum]

Then why hasn't he already signed with the Twins? Pavano said he was going to make his decision early this week. It is now late this week. Perhaps he is not as sold on the Twins as everyone believes.

[DannoMac21]

My buddy from Minnesota said from all indications he's heard and whatnot he'll be shocked if the Twins don't re-sign him. Twins shed salary so they could re-sign him.

[RockCoCougars]

My buddy from Minnesota said from all indications he's heard and whatnot he'll be shocked if the Twins don't re-sign him. Twins shed salary so they could re-sign him.

Why are they dragging their feet then- get 'er done! Hopefully this is true, and Brewers fans don't get another Christmas Eve miracle like we did four years ago.

[brewtank34]

My buddy from Minnesota said from all indications he's heard and whatnot he'll be shocked if the Twins don't re-sign him. Twins shed salary so they could re-sign him.

Why are they dragging their feet then- get 'er done! Hopefully this is true, and Brewers fans don't get another Christmas Eve miracle like we did four years ago.

 

Thank goodness for the Greinke trade. Otherwise, Brewer fans would be still be forced to talk about the potential signing of Carl Pavano. HAHA!! Greinke >>>>>>> Pavano! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

[Beast Light]

So who's glad that we didnt' sign this guy? Once again, his performance appears to be tailing off now that he has been paid.

[RockCoCougars]

Thank god that bullet was dodged. Pavano only pitches well in contract years, and I don't think it's a coincidence. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[Beast Light]

Thank god that bullet was dodged. Pavano only pitches well in contract years, and I don't think it's a coincidence. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Agreed. Carl Pavano is one of the most extreme examples of a player that pitches particularly well in contract years only to pitch terribly (if at all) after being paid. You'd think that, coupled with his age (35) would have made not signing him a no-brainer.

 

He presented the type of risk that a team like the Brewers, who need to make every dollar count, should not be taking.