Brewers in front with Nationals for Carl Pavano?

[RockCoCougars]

Haurdicourt reporting that Pavano 'prefers' the Twins. Hopefully, Pavano and the Twins can get something agreed to. If so, it will be the biggest bullet this team has dodged since the Giants 'stole' Dave Roberts from the Brewers.

[Ennder]

My opinion isn't based totally on that 4 year stretch. The fact that he didn't start that many games at the beginning of his career, and finally got healthy the two years before he became a FA is suspicious to me. Sure, pitchers get hurt, but how many good starters pitched as rarely as he has throughout his career? I just find it hard to believe that a pitcher has started 30 games 4 times in his 12 year career, 3 of those times he was playing for a contract, and it is a complete coincidence.

In 2001 he had some arm problems as well but other than that from 1998-2002 he split time between the majors and minors, he didn't have any injury problems.

[paul253]

If so, it will be the biggest bullet this team has dodged since the Giants 'stole' Dave Roberts from the Brewers.

 

I agree. At least Melvin learned his lesson from aging vets and only offered him two years, but I could really do without Carl Pavano. He would just cost too much money.

[Ennder]

I don't think the money is a big issue at two years, the fact he is a type A free agent is what would break the deal for me.

[kramnoj]

In 2001 he had some arm problems as well but other than that from 1998-2002 he split time between the majors and minors, he didn't have any injury problems.

 

If he didn't have any other injuries, he had curious usage patterns. In 2000 he didn't appear in the minors and only started 15 games. in 1999, he only had 5 IP in the minors, meaning a total of 109 IP that year. In 2002 he had a little over 80 IP total. I will grant that in 1998 between the minors and majors he had 30 starts, so that helps him a little, but for the most part my question remains.

[Oldcity]

Haurdicourt reporting that Pavano 'prefers' the Twins. Hopefully, Pavano and the Twins can get something agreed to. If so, it will be the biggest bullet this team has dodged since the Giants 'stole' Dave Roberts from the Brewers.

Melky Cabrera says hello.

[Invader3K]

No offer to Pavano yet.

[dadofandrew]

FYI, I believe Doug considers an "offer" to be an official offer sheet, faxed to the agent/player. Needless to say, the idea they met with Pavano for a few hours and never discussed terms is a bit foolhardy.

[Ennder]

In 2001 he had some arm problems as well but other than that from 1998-2002 he split time between the majors and minors, he didn't have any injury problems.

 

If he didn't have any other injuries, he had curious usage patterns. In 2000 he didn't appear in the minors and only started 15 games. in 1999, he only had 5 IP in the minors, meaning a total of 109 IP that year. In 2002 he had a little over 80 IP total. I will grant that in 1998 between the minors and majors he had 30 starts, so that helps him a little, but for the most part my question remains.

My guess would be he was shut down late in 2000 for the arm injury that kept him out of the early part of 2001. In 2002 he had 136 IP in the majors and 20 IP in the minors which seems normal. I couldn't find any info on 1999.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/111885999.html

 

TH makes it sound like the Brewers have a good shot at Pavano now. It keeps changing on a daily basis it seems like.

[MNBrew]

I go back & forth on the 3 years thing w/ Pavano. And while there are multiple possibilities out there for beefing up our rotation, none of them are certain....

 

You know, at some point, the best teams often are the ones who go for it and aren't afraid to make risky moves. It's natural and also somewhat funny how often fear and statistically-justified sensibility become one in the same. But sooner or later, you need to go for it. Who could argue that the 2 deals that really put the '81 & '82 Brewers over the top were the Simmons-Vuckovich-Fingers trade in the '80-'81 offseason (Sixto, Sorenson, Davids Green & LaPoint) and the Sutton trade in late '82 (for Kevin Bass, Frank DiPino, & Mike Madden, all of whom also had good big-league careers) -- 7 current or eventual productive big leaguers for 4 top-caliber guys? Part of the key on those deals was timing, but part of it was having good assets & being willing to take risks in the first place.

 

For all that's risky about possibly giving Pavano a 3-year deal, he proved last year that he's still a very solid pitcher and he'd represent a significant upgrade to the 2011 Brewers rotation. Signing Pavano, even if it's for 3 years, would seem less risky than giving up 3-5 solid young players/prospects to land a Greinke or Garza. And signing Pavano PLUS keeping all those prospects still leaves the Brewers in a decent position to make other deals as needs arise.

 

Sure, a Pavano 3-year deal could backfire. So could trading for young players. And any proven guy could still get hurt (sure-thing always-healthy multiple Cy Young guy Johan Santana being a prime example). You can always talk down ANY possible option. But at some point, you have to commit to go for it. The alternative is standing pat & hoping you get lucky by everything coming fully together. Personally, I'd rather see the Brewers do what it takes to put the most talent on the roster AND keep their stash of prospects as strong as possible. Pavano would make all that occur. After watching him pitch up here in MN last year, I don't think signing him is crazy at all.

 

(note: edits for clarity & punctuation)

[Milltownhooker]

2 yrs with a vested option is probably the way to go. What about adding Pavano & Blanton to the rotation.

[Bnowell4evr]

If we can afford it I really like the idea of adding both Pavano and Blanton. Getting 5 guys who can pitch 200 innings with the type of bullpen and offense we have is a reason for optimism.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Gallardo

Marcum

Wolf

Pavano

Blanton

 

That's not bad at all. Doubt it will happen though.

[PilprinBuddha]

I see it as only possible if Prince gets dealt. Not sure I would be that interested in both.

[Oldcity]

That's really expensive for a rotation that is merely "solid."

[theavrock]

If we can afford it I really like the idea of adding both Pavano and Blanton. Getting 5 guys who can pitch 200 innings with the type of bullpen and offense we have is a reason for optimism.

Last year was the first year Pavano has pitched 200 innings since 2004 and Blanton hasn't pitched 200+ since 2007. Granted he came close in 2008 and 2009, but last year he only pitched 175. I don't think we can say with any certainty that either will pitch 200+ for sure next season.

[Invader3K]

Well, maybe not say with certainty, but both can probably be projected to pitch 200 innings or there abouts.

[RockCoCougars]

I think Blanton would be great as a #4/#5 starter because he has shown durability and is an 'innings eater'. That said, I'm not a huge fan of innings eaters, and I don't want both Blanton and Pavano in the rotation. I'm also not convinced that Pavano would be an innings eater. Obviously, anything could happen with Blanton a la Doug Davis last year, but I'd go with him, because he is younger, cheaper, and has a better track record than Pavano (particularly in going out there every fifth day). Again, I would only move on this if the Phillies were either willing to accept Hawkins in the deal, or kick in some salary relief- about $5 million. I'm not on board for giving Blanton $16 million over two seasons, but I would go with $10 or $12 million over two.

[Hate those Rodents]

Wondering aloud whether people would prefer Blanton for two years at the full 17 million or Pavano for two years at 20 million. Let's also figure what we have to give up to get Blanton is roughly the exact equal of what you value the second round pick we'd have to give up for Pavano to be. Just thinking it could create an interesting discussion...

[dadofandrew]

I'd take Blanton by a smidge. Of course, we don't know if it'd take a random A baller or an actual prospect of some merit. Blanton's FIP was lower last year, but with his build, he does not figure to age well. That says, he's several years younger than Pavano.

[Invader3K]

As Tom Haudricourt points out, signing Pavano would also cost a second round draft pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

This season's draft's second round picks are pretty far behind the first round, due to lots of comp. sandwich picks. If ever there were a season to forfeit a second rounder, it's this one. But Pavano isn't a player for whom I'd want the Brewers to part with said pick.

[crewcrazy]

Considering the state of the farm system, I'd be hesitant to give up that second round pick. They need an infusion of big-time talent, and this is regarded as one of the deepest drafts in years. They should still be able to get a player with a pretty good ceiling with that second round pick. The only way I'd feel comfortable with forfeiting that pick is if the team somehow gets a sandwich pick for Trevor Hoffman, but I doubt he signs before Pavano does.

[Invader3K]

I agree with crewcrazy. I'd rather have the potential upside of a second round pick than the more probable downside of signing Carl Pavano.