Zach Duke Outrighted; Update -- Pirates trade Duke to Arizona for a PTBNL

[pogokat]

Just thought this was interesting because there were several here who wanted the Brewers to attempt to trade for him way back win...some even claiming that moving Prince for him was a shrewd idea...

 

Duke, Like Francouer, has demonstrated that sample size is actually important!

[NYChez]

He'll go to Texas and Mike Maddux will turn him into a 15-game winner.

Edit: I also predicted Jose Bautista would go to Toronto and hit 54 HR. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[craigharmann]

How is this possible? He got a vote for the Cy Young!

[endaround]

He could easily be a 15 game winner. His season last year was derailed due to a HR/FB rate out of th enorm, a really low strand rate, and high BABIP. His xFIP the last 3 seasons: 4.57, 4.31, 4.48 which puts him about average. Put on teh right team an average pitcher ca get 15 wins. Heck on the Brewers Looper got 14 despite being below replacement level.

[Invader3K]

Would it make any sense at all for the Brewers to pick him up?

[Ennder]

Duke isn't someone I'd want as anything but a cheap #5. He is like Dave Bush, a 4.50ish ERA type guy but who lets way too many balls in play so his actual ERA is going to be at the whim of LOB%/BABIP/(HR/FB%). That typically isn't the type of guy you want to put in front of a below average defense in a neutral/hitters park.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I guess Andy Laroche was also released. What about signing Laroche to play 3B and trading McGehee? It's a gamble, but could it be worth it?

[Gobias Industries]

Laroche can't hit at this level. He's a utility infielder at best, imo.

[Sage]

Zach Duke is a bit of bigger name, but that's all he's got. We'll get better production from Chris Narveson in the 5th spot than we would from Duke. I just don't think he's really worth the gamble. If we really want another 5th starter, we'd bring Dave Bush back.

[And That]

If no one gives him a big league deal, I'd have no problem giving him a minor league deal with an NRI. Pretty solid injury depth, if nothing else.

[RockCoCougars]

Ah yes, the Madison Bumgarner of 2005. Just goes to show that a lot of this 'young pitching' doesn't pan out.

 

As for the Brewers signing him, I think that given his subpar stuff, the only chance Duke has to make it at this point is to become the next Jamie Moyer. Let another team take that chance.

[TooLiveBrew]

Duke was never regarded as highly as Bumgarner. I don't get why you wanted to just take a dump on prospects because a guy with average stuff wound up getting released after having a below-avg. career so far. Duke proves nothing about any other player aside from Zach Duke.

[RockCoCougars]

Duke was never regarded as highly as Bumgarner. I don't get why you wanted to just take a dump on prospects because a guy with average stuff wound up getting released after having a below-avg. career so far. Duke proves nothing about any other player aside from Zach Duke.

OK, Daniel Hudson then....

 

At any rate I disagree. Duke was very highly regarded in 2005. Like Bumgarner, he didn't have amazing stuff, but he had the fast rise to the majors and brief outstanding minor league track record, they were both roughly the same age as well. Duke also got off to a better start to his career than Bumgarner. I think that they are very comparable, Bumgarner had the rep as a hard thrower, but if he actually was throwing in the mid 90's at some point, he's taken a huge hit in velocity for whatever reason.

 

At any rate, I didn't mean to take a dump on Bumgarner, I was making a statement as to how fleeting young pitching brilliance can be.

[logan82]

I wouldn't mind Duke on a AAA contract with a big league invite. His K rate sucks but he would be ok as depth.

[greeg35]

I was making a statement as to how fleeting young pitching brilliance can be.

 

 

But SOME of them work out (otherwise there wouldn't be any good pitching right?); they just work out at a low rate...which is why I believe teams like the Brewers need to hold on to as many of their pitching prospects as possible. That makes the chances higher for us having at least ONE of them pan out for us so we don't have to overpay for other peoples' pitching via FA or trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

He could easily be a 15 game winner. His season last year was derailed due to a HR/FB rate out of th enorm, a really low strand rate, and high BABIP. His xFIP the last 3 seasons: 4.57, 4.31, 4.48 which puts him about average. Put on teh right team an average pitcher ca get 15 wins. Heck on the Brewers Looper got 14 despite being below replacement level.

He's got a career BAA of .305. It's hard to spin that as good when the sample size (964 innings) is so large. He pitched half his games in a park that isn't kind to RH power hitters. Put him in more hitter friendly Miller Park where he's been awful (.370/.417/.581 in 11 starts) for half his games and he might be the worst starting pitcher in either league.

[dadofandrew]

Miller Park is not a bad LHP park. The Crew has hit lefties hard the last few years though, so it's likely just that. Heck, MP is a bit of a pitcher's park the past 3 years. Duke has the potential to win 15 games and make less than $1M, few SP's have that potential.

[DHonks]

just curious, but what are Duke's numbers if we subtract facing the Brewers the last year or two? With our domination of Pitt, I'm curious

[dadofandrew]

2010--5.25 w/o Brewers, 5.72 total

2009--3.81 w/o Brewers, 4.06 total

 

Also, he did not get to face the Pirates, which probably would lower his ERA further.

[monty57]

I'll agree somewhat with RockCoCougars in that young pitching is extremely overvalued, probably by both GM's and fan site posters. As Pogo mentioned in the opening post, many here were salivating at the thought of trading a rookie Prince for a rookie Zach Duke. Then, this season, the thought of trading perennial MVP-candidate Fielder for a good young pitcher was seemingly laughable.

 

On topic, it's sad to see a promising talent fail. I hope Duke can find success at the MLB level, but other than a MiLB contract, I don't think the Brewers should take the chance. We already have plenty of question marks that we could insert into the 2011 rotation. I hope we focus on some moves which will bring more talent into the rotation. If we can somehow find a #1/2 guy to mix in with Yo and the resurgent Wolf, and pick up a #3-ish guy to put at #4, leading to Narveson or whomever gets the #5 spot we could be pretty good next season. Let's see if Melvin can pull that out of his hat.

[dadofandrew]

I don't like young pitchers as much as young hitters because they get hurt far more. That's why the idea of dealing Lawrie for an arm that may be one pitch away from struggling to not suck scares me so.

[logan82]

I don't like young pitchers as much as young hitters because they get hurt far more. That's why the idea of dealing Lawrie for an arm that may be one pitch away from struggling to not suck scares me so.

That is kind of the theory behind how the Brewers were currently built. At least I believe it was anyway. Draft hitters high and you are taking safer picks than pitchers. Higher chance to contribute at the MLB level.

Melvin, despite his detractors has put together mostly solid pitching staffs outside of 2009 and 2010.

 

[endaround]

Part of that is moving prospects for pitchers. If we could have gotten something for Salome.....

[logan82]

Part of that is moving prospects for pitchers. If we could have gotten something for Salome.....

If Salome had lived up to his 2008 season and not completely fallen off the map.

[endaround]

I think I've mentioned it before, but look at where the Brewers were in 2008 at all levels and just how much really bad luck seemed to hit the team. That Hunstville lineup looked stacked and ready to be up in Milwaukee and destroying pitching by 2010.