College Basketball 2010-2011

[heresrobin]

A quick Milwaukee update:

With their win against Valpo last night, the Panthers keep their slim No. 1 seed Horizen tournament hopes alive. If I'm not mistaken, I think they've all but locked up at worst a No. 4 seed. This team is playing pretty darn well right now and have won 7 straight. Their next game is a Bracket Buster game at Buffalo. But the more important game is next week when they travel to 1st place Cleveland St. - the Panthers are currently 1 game out.

[LouisEly]

Marquette lost to St. Johns by fewer points than Duke did. As a comparison has only beaten two currently ranked teams - Ohio State and Purdue, both at home. Same number of current top-25 teams that Marquette has beaten (Syracuse & Notre Dame). Wisconsin's win over Minnesota is roughly equivalent to Marquette's win over West Virginia. Of those 20 games you reference against "decent" competition, 11 of them have been against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Wisconsin has only played four games against teams currently ranked in the top 25. If Marquette played in a weaker conference like the Big 10, they would have a better record.

[jjfanec]

Marquette lost to St. Johns by fewer points than Duke did. As a comparison has only beaten two currently ranked teams - Ohio State and Purdue, both at home. Same number of current top-25 teams that Marquette has beaten (Syracuse & Notre Dame). Wisconsin's win over Minnesota is roughly equivalent to Marquette's win over West Virginia. Of those 20 games you reference against "decent" competition, 11 of them have been against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Wisconsin has only played four games against teams currently ranked in the top 25. If Marquette played in a weaker conference like the Big 10, they would have a better record.

So losing close is a good thing? I have never heard the committee use this as a criteria before so I doubt they do this year. Marquette has played some tough top 25 teams but they are like 2-9 in those games. You are right Wisconsin does not have an awesome resume and that is why they will be a 4 seed, but considering they knocked Marquette off in Milwaukee I think their resume is a little better. Wisconsin's wins over Illinois, Michigan St., Minnesota and even Michigan will look about as good as the West Virginia win once WVU plays decent BE competition. WVU is 1-5 vs ranked Big East teams and still has 4 more games to go. They are likely to be around 19-11 come Big East tourney time. The Badgers have a pretty good record against the rpi top 100 10-6, Marquette is 5-11. Marquette is 3-10 vs RPI top 50. Wisconsin is 6-5. Wisconsins SOS is 34 to Marquettes 31. Not really comparable resumes. I know RPI is not the greatest ranking but it gets the point across clearly. Marquette has lost far more than they have won against potential tourney teams. Wisconsin has been just above .500.

 

I just dont see a good resume for Marquette because close loses dont mean anything other than you will lose by less in your first round game. I think Marquette will get in bc they are right on the bubble right now. Palm had them as one of the last 4 teams in.

[danzig6767]

I'd agree with you Ely that Marquette is probably a little better than their record, but in the end, that doesn't really matter much because they are 15-11.

 

The NCAA Tournament committee can only give a team so much credit for hanging tough in nearly every loss because the bottom line is they are still losses.

 

This Marquette team has talent, but i think they badly miss the senior leadership that was on the squad last year. While Lazar deserved all the credit he got, a guy like Acker is also sorely missed. He was undersized and wasn't a great talent, but he was very smart, took great care of the ball, and could drill a three when it was badly needed late in a close game. For example, no way does MU collapse and lose that Louisville game if Acker was still running the point.

 

Late in games, this team also lacks a go to type of guy when things are falling apart and they badly need a basket to calm things down. Butler strikes me as a great great kid, but i think he's almost to unselfish.

[danzig6767]

Marquette lost to St. Johns by fewer points than Duke did. As a comparison has only beaten two currently ranked teams - Ohio State and Purdue, both at home. Same number of current top-25 teams that Marquette has beaten (Syracuse & Notre Dame). Wisconsin's win over Minnesota is roughly equivalent to Marquette's win over West Virginia. Of those 20 games you reference against "decent" competition, 11 of them have been against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Wisconsin has only played four games against teams currently ranked in the top 25. If Marquette played in a weaker conference like the Big 10, they would have a better record.

So losing close is a good thing? I have never heard the committee use this as a criteria before so I doubt they do this year. Marquette has played some tough top 25 teams but they are like 2-9 in those games. You are right Wisconsin does not have an awesome resume and that is why they will be a 4 seed, but considering they knocked Marquette off in Milwaukee I think their resume is a little better. Wisconsin's wins over Illinois, Michigan St., Minnesota and even Michigan will look about as good as the West Virginia win once WVU plays decent BE competition. WVU is 1-5 vs ranked Big East teams and still has 4 more games to go. They are likely to be around 19-11 come Big East tourney time. The Badgers have a pretty good record against the rpi top 100 10-6, Marquette is 5-11. Marquette is 3-10 vs RPI top 50. Wisconsin is 6-5. Wisconsins SOS is 34 to Marquettes 31. Not really comparable resumes. I know RPI is not the greatest ranking but it gets the point across clearly. Marquette has lost far more than they have won against potential tourney teams. Wisconsin has been just above .500.

 

I just dont see a good resume for Marquette because close loses dont mean anything other than you will lose by less in your first round game. I think Marquette will get in bc they are right on the bubble right now. Palm had them as one of the last 4 teams in.

It's not even remotely debatable that Wisconsin has a much superior resume and they simply are a better team. I didn't think the Badgers would be this good this season. I expected them to make the big dance as Bo always does, but be more of an 8-9 seed type of team, not the 3-5 seed i see them ending up as. The development of Taylor has been amazing though, to the point i think he's Wisconsin's best and most important player, even over Leuer.

 

Where i'm very concerned about them in regards to the NCAA Tournament is that they are so reliant on the perimeter jumper, especially the three ball and while most teams shoot better at home, their splits are pretty extreme.

 

Home: 14 games

 

FG: 348/720 (48.3%)

3's: 132/301 (43.9%)

 

Road/Neutral: 11 games

 

FG: 236/579 (40.8%)

3's: 77/246 (31.3%)

 

Wisconsin will have a tough time winning any game in the tournament if their threes aren't dropping, they take (over 20 per game). Unless they can buck this trend of shooting great at home, but tending to shoot much worse from the perimeter away from the Kohl Center, i'm not sure how they can win multiple games vs good teams because so much of their offense is based on shooting jumpers/threes, with few to no easy baskets in transition.

[jjfanec]

Marquette lost to St. Johns by fewer points than Duke did. As a comparison has only beaten two currently ranked teams - Ohio State and Purdue, both at home. Same number of current top-25 teams that Marquette has beaten (Syracuse & Notre Dame). Wisconsin's win over Minnesota is roughly equivalent to Marquette's win over West Virginia. Of those 20 games you reference against "decent" competition, 11 of them have been against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Wisconsin has only played four games against teams currently ranked in the top 25. If Marquette played in a weaker conference like the Big 10, they would have a better record

It's not even remotely debatable that Wisconsin has a much superior resume and they simply are a better team. I didn't think the Badgers would be this good this season. I expected them to make the big dance as Bo always does, but be more of an 8-9 seed type of team, not the 3-5 seed i see them ending up as. The development of Taylor has been amazing though, to the point i think he's Wisconsin's best and most important player, even over Leuer.

 

Where i'm very concerned about them in regards to the NCAA Tournament is that they are so reliant on the perimeter jumper, especially the three ball and while most teams shoot better at home, their splits are pretty extreme.

 

Home: 14 games

 

FG: 348/720 (48.3%)

3's: 132/301 (43.9%)

 

Road/Neutral: 11 games

 

FG: 236/579 (40.8%)

3's: 77/246 (31.3%)

 

Wisconsin will have a tough time winning any game in the tournament if their threes aren't dropping, they take (over 20 per game). Unless they can buck this trend of shooting great at home, but tending to shoot much worse from the perimeter away from the Kohl Center, i'm not sure how they can win multiple games vs good teams because so much of their offense is based on shooting jumpers/threes, with few to no easy baskets in transition.

I agree completely. I will be surprised if this team makes it out of the opening round because they are so reliant on 3's. Last night they could not hit anything in a game that was there for the taking.

[owbc]

I will be surprised if this team makes it out of the opening round

because they are so reliant on 3's. Last night they could not hit

anything in a game that was there for the taking.

I thought UW had very few open jump shots last night relative to the Ohio State game. Purdue chose to defend the perimeter and let Jon Leuer beat them. The Badgers might have survived if Leuer didn't have to go to the bench with foul trouble because Purdue didn't have an answer for him. Besides, it is extremely difficult to win at Mackey and they put up a good fight. UW will beat Purdue if they meet in the B10 tourney.

 

As for a first round exit, that sounds like another one of those familiar Wisconsin comments that comes up every year but never happens. Bo Ryan is 8-1 in the round of 64. The Badgers will be a 3-5 seed and are unlikely to lose. How far they can conceivable go really depends on their bracket draw, which has been bad the last few years by most standards. The Sweet 16 is probably a reasonable expectation but you never know if Taylor gets hot (or conversely if they have a cold shooting night against a team that rebounds well).

 

I think Marquette still has a good chance at the tourney--they have an easy schedule going out and 4 more wins should get them in.

[homer]

The defense failed UW against Purdue as much as the offense did.

[jjfanec]

The defense failed UW against Purdue as much as the offense did.

For as many shots as they missed, Leuer getting in foul trouble and as poor as the defense was, they were still right in that game at the end. They went to the Jordan Taylor isolation play to late in the game but in the last 4 minutes he could get to the rim whenever he wanted. Not sure what was going on before that.

[danzig6767]

I will be surprised if this team makes it out of the opening round

because they are so reliant on 3's. Last night they could not hit

anything in a game that was there for the taking.

As for a first round exit, that sounds like another one of those familiar Wisconsin comments that comes up every year but never happens. Bo Ryan is 8-1 in the round of 64. The Badgers will be a 3-5 seed and are unlikely to lose. How far they can conceivable go really depends on their bracket draw, which has been bad the last few years by most standards. The Sweet 16 is probably a reasonable expectation but you never know if Taylor gets hot (or conversely if they have a cold shooting night against a team that rebounds well).

 

I think Marquette still has a good chance at the tourney--they have an easy schedule going out and 4 more wins should get them in.

I'm not expecting a first round exit either, but i wouldn't be surprised by a first round exit. Bo's teams have for the most part have been more perimeter based on offense than other good teams around college ball, but this year's team is more reliant than normal on the three ball and thus, i think it makes them more unpredictable in the NCAA Tournament.

 

With them shooting so many threes per game on average, when they are hitting them at a good clip, they are very tough to beat regardless of the opponent. On the flip side, when they are mostly bricking their threes, they can be prone to getting upset IMO, even if say they were a 3-4 seed facing an 11-12 seed in the first round.

 

So even though i'd bet against it, i think this squad has better odds to advance to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 than other Ryan teams simply based on if they have a 2-3 game stretch of hot shooting in the tournament. I think there is a chance for that only because unlike some other Badgers teams, this one does have three really good perimeter shooters in the starting five between Taylor, Leuer, and Nakivil. Besides those three, all of Gasser, Bruesewitz, and Jarmusz are capable three point shooters, they just are more inconsistent. This means there are six guys that a defense legitimately has to guard out to the three point line. That said, the adage of live by the three, die by the three has truth to it. In college ball today, all teams are reliant on the three to a degree, but it's generally the teams who are more diverse that manage to advance to the Elite 8 or Final Four because teams will just have games where the jumper isn't falling and really good teams can find other ways to score enough points to win.

 

As for Marquette, unfortunately i don't see them making it, that loss to St. John's was a killer. They probably need to win out now and win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Marquette has talent, but i just don't think they have the leadership on the court to run off five straight wins. They'll lose at least one of those five games and maybe even two. Next year though, i like their chances to have a much better season, especially if Buzz can get the PG situation settled better.

[jjfanec]

Badgers and Marquette both do what they needed (and were expected) to do with their weekend games. Comfortable wins. I will be interested to see how much the Badgers drop in the rankings after a loss at Purdue.

[DocBrewPack]

I dont think Wisconsin will drop much. Purdue also just beat Ohio State.

[danzig6767]

When i watch Wisconsin, more and more it seems to me that Keaton

Nakivil is the wildcard in determining if they can have a nice run in

the NCAA Tournament. The guy has a fabulous jumper for a big man,

especially from three point land, but he's very inconsistent with that

jumper when away from the Kohl Center.

 

When he is hitting though, the Badgers are so much tougher to defend.

Not only aren't big men typically used to defending out to the three

point line, when Nakivil is hitting, he make defenses pay for helping

on Leuer or when Taylor penetrates. That leaves an opposing coach into

a tough decision. Say Nakivil hits a few early jumpers/threes, does

that coach continue to double Leuer if he catches in the post and

Nakivil is standing outside the three point line on the same side?

 

BTW, that Josh Gasser kid has developed into a nice player as only a

freshman. I'm sure it had to be a kick in the gut when Vander Blue

decommitted, but given the struggles of Vander this year which opened

the door for Gasser, my guess is UW wouldn't trade Gasser for Blue.

[jjfanec]

When i watch Wisconsin, more and more it seems to me that Keaton

Nakivil is the wildcard in determining if they can have a nice run in

the NCAA Tournament. The guy has a fabulous jumper for a big man,

especially from three point land, but he's very inconsistent with that

jumper when away from the Kohl Center.

 

When he is hitting though, the Badgers are so much tougher to defend.

Not only aren't big men typically used to defending out to the three

point line, when Nakivil is hitting, he make defenses pay for helping

on Leuer or when Taylor penetrates. That leaves an opposing coach into

a tough decision. Say Nakivil hits a few early jumpers/threes, does

that coach continue to double Leuer if he catches in the post and

Nakivil is standing outside the three point line on the same side?

 

BTW, that Josh Gasser kid has developed into a nice player as only a

freshman. I'm sure it had to be a kick in the gut when Vander Blue

decommitted, but given the struggles of Vander this year which opened

the door for Gasser, my guess is UW wouldn't trade Gasser for Blue.

You are completely right. If Keaton is on, the Badgers could make a deep run. We already know that Taylor and Leuer can score, but Keaton gives them another weapon. With he and Leuer both being 3-point threats it really stretches a defense out. Not only that but the other guy you brought up - Gasser - is becoming a threat to hit double digits. 4 of his last 8 games have been double digit scoring games. He also plays solid defense. Even in the Purdue game they lost this week I think this team showed something. Keaton struggled, Leuer was great but I had to sit a long time with foul trouble, and Taylor did not get going until there were 4 minutes left yet they were still right there with a top 10 team on the road.

 

The rise of Gasser and fall of Blue throughout this season has been crazy. Blue can barely see the floor right now and seems to turn it over more than he scores. Gasser has become a better shooter and defender as the season has gone on. I still wish the Badgers had Blue, but not over Gasser but over Brust

[TooLiveBrew]

BTW, that Josh Gasser kid has developed into a nice player as only a freshman. I'm sure it had to be a kick in the gut when Vander Blue decommitted, but given the struggles of Vander this year which opened the door for Gasser, my guess is UW wouldn't trade Gasser for Blue.

 

Gasser has really been fun to watch. I certainly didn't expect him to contribute as much as he has already.

[homer]

Diamond Taylor being an idiot opened the door for Gasser.

[jhart05]

Great college hoops coming up this week...

 

If you are not doing anything Thursday night, the Milwaukee Panthers have their biggest game in the past 5 years.

 

at Cleveland State

6pm

Time Warner Sports Ch 32

 

Win, and the Panthers are Horizon League Champs, get to host the tournament, and a trip to the Big Dance runs thru the Mecca.

 

Cleveland State is currently in 1st Place alone. They win and they are Champs.

 

Going to be a great game, don't miss it.

[homer]

I think Butler is going to win that tournament. They're on fire right now.

[jhart05]

We've also won our last 7 conference games, including one at Butler.

 

I can tell you from talking to some Butler fans on message boards and such... they do not want to face us in the conference tournament.

[trwi7]

Don't you have to beat Youngstown State to win it too?

[jhart05]

Yes, but that will be a much easier game. Not worried about that one. Have to win at Cleveland first.

[Menotti80]

If MU wins @ UCONN, then doesn't collapse in its last 3 games, they are likely a tourney lock.

 

So from that perspective, it's a pretty big MU game tomorrow...

[heresrobin]

jhart05,

 

What is the injury situation with the Panthers going into this game? I thought that I read that several Panther players are nursing injuries going into this game (I think it was Hill, Williams, and Allen but I'm not sure). Are these guys going to be OK?

[Menotti80]

Wow, what a finish!

[young guns]

Im at work only able to watch the game through game center. The only thing I can think of is, how did Wisconsin win this game?