Brewers may shop Braun? Gammons says he's hearing so...

[TooLiveBrew]

As joepepsi laid out, two reasonable scenarios in this specific discussion are

 

1) Braun in LF through 2015, no Lester ... 2) Gamel in LF through 2016*, Lester as #1 SP

 

While it's certainly possible that Gamel could be used to add a SP, he alone wouldn't be capable of returning someone of Lester's quality.

 

 

Going by WAR, Lester averages about one win better than Braun over the past 3 years (5.7 vs. 4.6). One win is something, but it's not enough risk premium for me, especially since I don't know if Lester is going to get any better than he already is and I think Braun has at least one 5 WAR season in him in the near future.

 

Braun might have a 5 WAR season in him, but that's largely going to depend on whether he puts the work in to become a less horrible defender. Lester has already had three 5 WAR seasons in him, and projects to have many more left. This isn't much of a question for me; Lester is clearly the more valuable player imo.

 

I'd be willing to trade that extra season that Braun has on his contract for the better player at the much more difficult position. I think that if we ran this idea past RedSoxfan.net, they'd think it was a bad idea for the Sawx.

 

 

* -- just my estimate of how long Gamel is under team salary control... could be wrong

[strawbossisevil]

I would make the deal. Filling in LF and 1B is not that difficult. Finding a SP the level of Lester is much more challenging.

 

Add to the fact that we have a couple big offensive prospects in Gamel and Lowrie. And I think we will be fine offensively. Especially if we can lock down Weeks longterm.

 

If we could learn anything from San Francisco, it is that above average pitching can carry a team into and through the playoffs.

[kramnoj]

Braun might have a 5 WAR season in him, but that's largely going to depend on whether he puts the work in to become a less horrible defender.

 

Braun has not been horrible in LF, and he was better in 2010 than he was in 2009, his first time playing the position.

 

I don't understand why fans of this team want to exaggerate the deficiencies of some of our players.

[JumpinMacFlash]

I'm going to preface this post by stating that I don't think the Brewers will or should trade Ryan Braun.

 

That said, I don't really understand the anger toward Gammons. This is exactly what he said in the audio:

 

"I think one name to watch, and I don't know if it will happen or not, but there is some talk in Milwaukee that Ryan Braun could get traded. I think the Red Sox would jump big into that if they could possibly get him."

 

He heard talk that Braun could get traded. He reported it as that. He even said he didn't know if it would happen or not. He reported some chatter that he heard, not that the Brewers were discussing Braun with other teams. Could they be? Sure, but Gammons doesn't say that. He says the talk is in Milwaukee. That sounds more to me like internal dialogue. Also, he's on NESN talking about the Red Sox. He's speculating (which it's clearly evident that he's speculating based on the words he uses) that the Red Sox would go hard after Braun if he were available. That doesn't really sound like a stretch of the imagination. I would think most teams would go hard after Braun considering his contract and level of production.

 

Really...he's on a Hot Stove show talking about rumors. He mentions some idle trade talk that he heard. There's nothing irresponsible about it. We're going to hear oodles of rumors between now and Spring Training. What makes this rumor so offensive? The fact that involves Braun? It's completely beyond me why people would instantly assume he's lying.

 

From our perspective, it makes perfect sense to hold onto Braun. He has a favorable contract, he's the face of a franchise, he's a star, he's marketable, and all those good thing. If we understand that, the organization has to understand that. That doesn't mean that there isn't some internal dialogue about trading him. The things that make him valuable to the Brewers would also make him valuable to another team, and could net the Brewers a haul in a trade. We immediately jump to Jon Lester as a trade target. Of course that makes sense to us, but Lester is signed by Boston through 2013 with a $13 million team option for 2014. The things that make Braun valuable to the Brewers make Lester just as valuable to the Red Sox, if not more so considering he is 26, left-handed, and very successful.

 

Really, it's something that's very unlikely to come to fruition, but that doesn't mean the idea hasn't been privately explored. I'm not trying to be a wet blanket; I know we're here to debate topics, including rumors. However, let's treat it like the rumor it was reported as and not be so quick to discredit the messenger.

[Invader3K]

"Gamel could stand out in LF as effectively as Braun and probably post stats similar to Braun's 2010. "

 

I really disagree with this. Now I'm going to copy and paste something I just posted over on the JSOnline which sums up my take on that argument (I post as Brauntosaurus over there):

 

Gamel could possibly be worse defensively than Braun

(though there's no way to know this without seeing him play LF, which I

don't think he ever has). As far as his offense, here's what Braun did in

2010:

 

.304/.365/.501, 25 HR, 103 RBI

 

If Gamel put up those numbers, he would probably be a lock for NL Rookie

of the Year (if he's still eligible). Saying he could "very likely" do that is

pretty misleading.

 

Ryan Braun is one of the greatest all around offensive players this team

has seen, ranking up there with the likes of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor.

If he continues his current pace, he's a veritable lock for the Hall of

Fame, years from now. You don't trade away that kind of player when

he's young and cost controlled.

 

Anyway, this whole thing started with pure speculation from Peter

Gammons, who is an unabashed BoSawx homer. It's the usual Boston, "We

can trade for every good player and every marquee free agent wants to

come here," type attitude that they usually display. I remember how Ben

Sheets was always "rumored" to get traded there after his stellar 2004

season. They think Milwaukee is a glorified farm club for them, if you go

off some of the trade proposals you see suggested by their fans.

[thebruce44]

As joepepsi laid out, two reasonable scenarios in this specific discussion are

 

1) Braun in LF through 2015, no Lester ... 2) Gamel in LF through 2016*, Lester as #1 SP

 

Or it could be:

 

1) Braun in LF through 2015, Gamel at 3rd through 2016, 2-3 WAR pitcher (from McGehee trade) as #2/3 through 2016...2) Gamel in LF through 2016, Lester as #1 SP

 

 

I would take #1.

[nate82]

Exactly. How often did we hear rumors about Ben Sheets getting traded after '04 as well? Same old, same old here.

I wonder if the Brewers would have traded Sheets in '04 would they have gotten the same haul as the Marlins did?

[And That]

Filling in LF and 1B is not that difficult. Finding a SP the level of Lester is much more challenging.

Finding average players at those positions is relatively easy. However, we have exceptional players there, and finding exceptional players is, by nature, very difficult. There are only a handful of players in either league who wouldn't be downgrades from Braun and Fielder.

 

And we're not getting any of them.

 

I agree with thebruce44 - trading McGehee and keeping both Gamel and Braun makes a lot more sense to me than relying on McGehee and Gamel.

[JohnBriggs12]

Filling in LF and 1B is not that difficult. Finding a SP the level of Lester is much more challenging.

Finding average players at those positions is relatively easy. However, we have exceptional players there, and finding exceptional players is, by nature, very difficult. There are only a handful of players in either league who wouldn't be downgrades from Braun and Fielder.

 

And we're not getting any of them.

 

I agree with thebruce44 - trading McGehee and keeping both Gamel and Braun makes a lot more sense to me than relying on McGehee and Gamel.

Also, from the Red Sox perspective what's stopping them from finding the abundant LF/1B types and keeping Lester.

 

Braun had an off year offensively in 2010, his worst in 4 seasons.. I think that's coloring a lot of people here. I also think the defensive knocks on him are largely crock. He tends to be cautious with balls hit directly over his head. That's the toughest ball for any outfielder much less one still adjusting to the position. He runs down a lot of balls in the corner that other LF with less speed don't get to. As for him being disinterested? I don't know how you can tell what's inside a guy by the look on his face.

 

Take nothing away from Lester. He's a great pitcher with a reasonable contract through 2014. If he stays healthy for 4 years, sure he might be more valuable than Braun. But there's a significantly greater injury risk for pitchers and right now I don't see an adequate replacement for Braun.. The solution to finding quality is drafting and developing guys.

[nate82]

Anybody who wouldn't trade Ryan Braun straight up for Jon Lester hasn't seen enough of Jon Lester.

My opinion. And Buchholz is right there, too, close behind. Please don't lump them together in a potential deal, it's not fair to the Sox.

It wouldn't be fair for the Sox but they would have to come up with the best offer to get Braun. If Braun would be available in the trade market it wouldn't just be the Red Sox bidding on Braun it would be practically the whole league bidding for Braun. So something like Lester and Buchholz would probably be the price that it would cost the Red Sox.

 

Is that price logical no it is far from being logical but when you have multiple teams bidding on one player the price is only going to increase. How high the price will be set by the teams bidding for Braun. If the Brewers could get more out of a trade for Braun and the Red Sox were only offering Lester while other teams are offering more players at the same level of play as Lester then it would be foolish for the Brewers to accept that trade and not the others.

[RockCoCougars]

I'll trade them Braun if they want to give up both Lester and Bucholz. Lester is still somewhat of a risk because of the Hodgkins.

 

At any rate, Gammons is a huge Boston homer, which I take this with a grain of salt. He probably thinks that Bard and Ellsbury would be a fair swap.

[Rhett16]

It's nice to dream of the fantastic rotation we could have by moving Fielder and Braun for some quality arms. Unfortunately it won't take the sting out of the dozens of 2-1 and 2-0 losses we will suffer because of it.

 

Move Fielder, keep Braun.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

This seems pretty ludicrous to me. You don't trade away a franchise player (especially one you've been able to lock up early) who's still very cheap. Lester is a very good pitcher, but you have to get more than that for Braun. I don't think trading the team's best player is a solution to the pitching problems as it only creates more holes.

 

Pulling Braun out of this lineup would also be scary. As good as we hope Gamel will be and could theoretically replace Braun, he hasn't shown a lot to me and I'm a big Gamel supporter.

 

But I don't think this is even worth discussing because I think Gammons is pulling this one out of his...

[craigharmann]

But I don't think this is even worth discussing because I think Gammons is pulling this one out of his...

hair?

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd trade Braun and Fielder plus a prospect to Boston for Lester AND Buchholtz.

 

Something like this,

Boston gets - Braun, Fielder, Peralta or Rivas.

 

Brewers get - Lester and Buchholtz

 

Keep in mind that the Red Sox can re-sign Fielder

 

Boston has a huge payroll anyways and could probably go out and sign a big time FA SP or trade other Minor League pieces for one. The Brewers have 2 top offensive prospects that are breaking into the Majors in Gamel and Lawire who can take over for Fielder and Braun. The Brewers would still have Jeffress, Rogers and Odorizzi. I'm not going to rule out Braun being traded even though it is highly unlikely. The Brewers would still have about 30-40 million to spend this off-season

 

I think Doug Melvin will do something huge this off-season and the players going out IMO will be a big time offensive players for the Brewers. The Brewers seem to be preparing to change the dynamic of this offense by hiring Roenicke and if you read some of their statements it all makes sense.

 

btw.. I don't think Gammons would mention the Brewers trading Braun at all unless he heard of something. He is too smart for that.

 

Mods I made a mistake and put Weeks to Boston and I meant Fielder.

 

 

 

 

[WisconsinSportsRule]

But I don't think this is even worth discussing because I think Gammons is pulling this one out of his...

hair?

Sure, you can finish the sentence any way you want http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[dadofandrew]

I'd say it's likely BOS asked about Braun as they asked about Fielder. I can't imagine Ryan and Prince both leaving, and considering Prince is all but gone, and Braun's team friendly contract, I'd be shocked...shocked.

[PrinceEatMeat]

There's no way the Brewers would take this big of a PR hit. Trading Prince is something they can pretty easily get away with. But if they traded Braun, lots of fans would be furious guaranteed. I don't see Melvin even entertaining the idea of trading Braun.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If the Brewers had legitimate back-up options I could see them pulling the trigger and trading Fielder AND Braun to Boston for IMO 2 of the best pitchers in the AL. Probably won't happen, but I'm just thinking outside the box. Heck I'd even add a top prospect like Jeffress to that package if the Brewers could get Lester and Buchholtz.

[TooLiveBrew]

There's no way the Brewers would take this big of a PR hit. Trading Prince is something they can pretty easily get away with. But if they traded Braun, lots of fans would be furious guaranteed.

 

I'll start this by reiterating that I don't think there's any real kind of chance that the Brewers could get Lester for Braun. However, that's exactly the kind of bold move the Brewers should be looking to make if it were available; to bring in some legit top of the league pitching. If fans wouldn't understand that an all-bat LF isn't nearly as hard to find as an arm like Lester, too bad. They'd forget about any sore feelings once Lester went out & continued to dominate.

 

I definitely am a Braun fan. Don't want to suggest otherwise. However, I'm an ever bigger fan of stud pitchers like Lester.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Does anybody know if Braun's no-trade clause is a full no-trade clause?

[TooLiveBrew]

Per Cot's:

no-trade clause 2008-11, limited no-trade clause 2012-13 (may block deals to 12 clubs)

no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)

[PrinceFielderx1]

Per Cot's:

no-trade clause 2008-11

What does this mean? Usually it will say "full" or "limited" no-trade clauses, but this is sorta in between..

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I was confused about that too. I guess if you just infer what it means based on what else is typed, you have to assume it's a full NTC for '08 through '11. *shrug*

[Invader3K]

Maybe the person in Milwaukee that Gammons supposedly heard from was Anthony Witrado. I remember last year he was trying to put out the idea that the Brewers might shop Braun as well.

 

Boston gets - Braun, Fielder, Peralta or Rivas.

 

Brewers get - Lester and Buchholtz

 

No offense, but I think this would be a terrible trade for the Brewers. We would be giving up way too much. Granted we'd get a couple very good starting pitchers, but we'd be giving up our two best hitters PLUS a prospect? No thanks.