Winter Weather Thread 2010-2011

[owbc]

Took a quick look at this storm. This one is going to paint a 12-18" band of snow about 250 miles wide stretching from Missouri to Maine. Strong high over North Dakota will create a nice pressure gradient. Lots of energy at upper levels. Abnormally cold temperatures for a panhandle hook storm will crank up the lake effect.

 

This will start as a long duration light snow event--don't get fooled, it will start soft and then hit hard at the end when the surface low arrives. It will go for 48 hours in some spots along the lake.

 

The only problem--one of the major models still sends the storm south and only gives Milwaukee 6" of snow or so. While that is still a decent amount of snow, this one has the potential to break records. So stay tuned.

[pitchleague]

considering it's the end of January and you're only on post 125 or so in this thread, I'd think you'd all be doing cartwheels over the winter you've had.

 

Of course, it IS only January 29th. You still have the annual State Basketball Tournament Winter Storm to go at the minimum.

[trwi7]

http://media.journalinteractive.com/images/weathermap1.jpg

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[RyDogg66]

So does this mean Oshkosh to Green Bay wont be getting any snow in this storm? Man, I hope so.

[PeaveyFury]

Interesting that WISC-3 in Madison seems to only be calling for 1-2 inches total from this storm.

[owbc]

This storm is drawing comparisons to the January 1-3, 1999 storm that shut down Milwaukee for a few days. I think the airport got about 16" in that one although it was tough to tell because of the wind.

 

NWS Milwaukee has reluctant to draw a map of snowfall accumulations, but here is my best guess.

 

Racine/Kenosha: 18-24 inches, up to 30" in isolated areas (depends on how much Lake Effect)

Milwaukee/Ozaukee: 16-24 inches

Janesville/Waukesha/Beaver Dam/Sheboyban: 12-20 inches

Madison area: 8-14 inches, higher totals south/east

Lake Winnebago area: 6-12 inches

 

About 2/3 of the snow will fall on Tuesday night. Do not plan to drive anywhere on Wednesday. The rest will fall over the next 48 hours. Exact snowfall accumulations will be difficult to measure, since gale force winds are anticipated. This will be a fluffy snow and 4-8 foot drifts will be common.

 

Of course the temperature will then drop below 0 on Wednesday night, but fortunately it will recover quickly.

 

 

[owbc]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png

 

Here is proof that I am not making up those numbers. Just an unprecedented snowstorm--and especially amazing because it is not even a direct hit (although the models continue to trend in that direction)

[RyDogg66]

The only question now is, will Milwaukee weather men/women burn 1 or 2 "storm names" on the impending blizzard. I am sure they are huddled in a room at this very moment deciding such a crucial dilemma.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm confused -- going to the NOAA page for Milwaukee right now, if you add the high end of total snow accumulation forecasts for Mon., Tues., & Weds., at most you get 18". For Racine, 20".

[hawing]

The map OWBC linked above is from the Milwaukee/Sullivan NWS page. I looked at it sometime Sunday afternoon and the forecast for Madison was "only" 15.some inches then. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

I have a feeling we'll be walking home from the UW-Purdue game tomorrow night. Since it starts at 6:00, we'd already planned to just walk over from work, but if it's blizzard conditions by 8:00, taking Metro home will take about as long, if we catch a bus at all.

[Patrick425]

Owbc, where do you locate that map on the national weather service site? Can you provide a link?

I find the site to somewhat not user friendly (and it is REALLY slow today). I tried looking at the "Graphical Forecast" area, but could only find forecasts in 12 hour increments and you had to move your curser over "snow totals" to get the map to change (and the page often errored out and would not even do this).

[RyDogg66]

I have a feeling this one is going to miss us. I predict we see snow, but nowhere near the 10-20 inches that are predicted.

[GoudaBrew]

 

Owbc, where do you locate that map on the national weather service site? Can you provide a link?

 

I find the site to somewhat not user friendly (and it is REALLY slow today). I tried looking at the "Graphical Forecast" area, but could only find forecasts in 12 hour increments and you had to move your curser over "snow totals" to get the map to change (and the page often errored out and would not even do this).

 

 

Wow, I was about to post this almost to the word. Love that graphic OWBC has, but for the life of me I cannot figure out weather.gov.

[adamb100]

Looks like mother nature is giving us the storm early...

[owbc]

All the info you need is here.

 

The snow started a little early which I believe is due to added moisture from the lake that was not predicted by the models. This is all bonus on top of the earlier forecasted amounts.

 

The model-forecasted start of the snow is right on schedule coming up from Northern Illinois right now.

[RockCoCougars]

I thought that this storm was supposed to wait a week. Now the local media is chasing its tail trying to cover both Packermania and Strormapalozaa. How are all the cub TV reporters going to be able to not only give us live 'the snow is very heavy' coverage from the interstate frontage road, but also to detail the divided family in which the Packer fan married a gal from Pittsburgh who carries a Terrible Towel in her back pocket? They may need to extend the local news to an hour.

[homer]

Tom Skilling (ace weatherman for WGN here in Chicago) says the storm may bring "occasional lightning and thunder." Here comes.....THUNDERSNOW!

 

http://dcist.com/attachments/Aaron%20Morrissey/2009_1218_thundersnow.jpg

[hawing]

Thundersnow is so cool...as long as the lightning isn't striking someone or something, I guess.

 

I can't make the image link here, but the Sally Forth comic strip (which is usually a combination of hackneyed and weird) for February 1 is perfectly timed for the current forecast and the media's coverage of it.

 

Edit: Here we go!

 

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/hs016.snc6/166664_1804183150064_1404434242_1959857_5232388_n.jpg

[owbc]

Just an absolute monster--headed straight for WI.

 

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g13.2011032.1715_smUS_wv.jpg

[craigharmann]

We've got strong winds and REALLY cold temperatures (I think) for Texas, and we're on the southern boundary of this bad boy. Stay safe and be careful out there!!

[adamb100]

UWM canceled evening classes today and all classes tomorrow.

 

Bring on the snow...

[owbc]

Sorry Patrick425, I accidentally erased your post when I was trying to write a response!

 

Patrick had a great observation based on the current radar image--the lake effect snow is heavier over the inland counties than over Milwaukee today. This is likely caused by the orographic effect of the Kettle

Moraine/higher elevation over Waukesha compared to Milwaukee. The

surface winds are being forced upward, which enhances the lift and hence

the precipitation.

 

Another reason is that this is a different

kind of lake effect snow than eastern WI usually experiences. This is

known as a "parallel band" lake effect snow, which can be seen by the

numerous parallel bands in the lake effect snow. The second kind of lake

effect snow is called a "convergence band" and is usually focused in

one heavy band as opposed to many light bands. The parallel bands are

weaker and vertically shorter than the convergence band, so the parallel

bands are more sensitive to the effect of the hills to aid lift (rising

air and moisture are the two main ingredients to make snowflakes).

 

Conversely,

the convergence band generates its lift from a "land breeze" effect

where air flows from higher pressure over cold land to lower pressure

over the warmer lake (on both sides of the lake), creating one band in

the middle of the lake that occassionally will drift on shore with a NNE

wind. When air converges at the surface, it is forced upward, so the

orographic effect of land is not as obvious.

[trwi7]

Tom Skilling (ace weatherman for WGN here in Chicago) says the storm may bring "occasional lightning and thunder." Here comes.....THUNDERSNOW!

 

http://dcist.com/attachments/Aaron%20Morrissey/2009_1218_thundersnow.jpg

 

Why does the thunder snow look like lightning?

[homer]

Why does the thunder snow look like lightning?

Do not question THUNDERSNOW!

[hawing]

Thundersnow looks like lightning because how do you draw thunder?

 

Tonight we walked from Library Mall to the Kohl Center for the basketball game (with the wind), then back to my building on Library Mall to get my backpack (against the wind), then to University & Park to catch a bus home. Sweet merciful crap. After the 10 minute walk against the wind, I had snow deep in the slash pockets of my winter coat - on both the right and left sides.

 

Scott Walker closed state agencies in the counties affected by this storm to the public on Wednesday, so I have a snow day. Biddy Martin called a snow day for UW-Madison; we were at the Kohl Center when the text alert went out to students and we didn't really need to check Facebook or wisc.edu to see what they were cheering about.

 

I'll tip my cap to Madison Metro, as the bus we took was only about seven minutes behind schedule...unless it was the scheduled bus from half an hour before, but even if that was the case, it got us home at a pretty decent clip.

 

Interesting night all around. This storm is as advertised, and Madison isn't even supposed to get the worst of it.