Winter Weather Thread 2010-2011

[BrewCrewForever]

obsessedwithbrewcrew, what do you know about this snow coming Saturday? I know we are getting a quick 1"-3" on Thursday afternoon/night but then more on Saturday.

[owbc]

Tricky forecast this weekend. Looks like a general 2-4" on Saturday from a potent mid-level wave. That will come mostly in a quick burst and could be mixed with rain to the south.

 

Not much agreement on whether we will get a low pressure system developing as well. I would say that 2-4" looks like the minimum amount, with 4-8" if the more intense scenario plays out.

 

Too soon to say for sure.

[BrewCrewForever]

Thanks obsessed, let us know when you know more.

[davego]

It is cold, cold, cold in Eau Claire tonight. Down to 4degrees at 7:15. By Sunday night, lows looking at 12-17 below (that's right...below) zero. In the best weather term I can come up with...that is STUPID-COLD!

[greeg35]

this is starting to feel transaction-forumesqe, with Obsessed playing the part of some kind of "weather insider" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Hammer]

I mirror davego...it is flippin cold here in Chip Falls this evening...even STUPID-COLD already!

[BrewCrewForever]

this is starting to feel transaction-forumesqe, with Obsessed playing the part of some kind of "weather insider" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Yup, he is my go to weather guy. I trust him more than some of the guys on Milwaukee TV.

[owbc]

Thanks guys! I have a good time following the winter weather, so it's nice to pass on the information.

 

Latest models bring the snowier solution to Wisconsin, possibly warm enough for rain near the WI-IL border and right along the lakeshore. I hesitate to make any forecast changes based on the differences between the models. We will be talking about rain instead of snow in Milwaukee if the forecast track moves much farther north. Definitely one to watch closely for those with travel plans on Saturday.

 

No matter what the snow total, some really cold air is coming in right behind the storm. There is no dispute about that.

[hawing]

OWBC could practically put the bf.net seal of approval on his resume.

[owbc]

Winter Storm Watch out for Saturday. 6-10 inches expected NW of a Mineral Point-Madison-Beaver Dam-Sheboygan line. Lesser accumulations SE of that line.

 

The exact location of the rain-snow line will most likely be refined in future updates.

[hawing]

OMG! It's snowing in Madison right now! Snowmageddon is upon us!!!11

[owbc]

Now it looks like the weekend storm is going to impact Minneapolis and Northern WI. Mostly rain is expected in Southern WI. Maybe a few inches of snow on the backside when the cold air hits, but nothing major. The Winter Storm Watch will almost certainly be canceled. Major impacts will be north of a La Crosse to Green Bay line.

[DatHoser]

First, OWBC, my yearly thanks for being the most trusted meteorologist I know.

 

Second, ugh - I'd rather have just snow than rain followed by cold and possible snow. Makes for messy, icy conditions.

[owbc]

Just came inside to look at the new models--was sitting out in the sun enjoying a nice 70 degree day. As for you Wisconsin people...

 

Latest update--slight southward shift in the last model run--rain/snow line looks to set up somewhere from Madison up to Beaver Dam and Sheboygan. Precipitation will start out mixed and then change to rain in the south/east and snow in the north/west before eventually transitioning to all snow everywhere. It is an extremely difficult forecast. There is only about a 50 mile difference between the areas that will get 8" to 12"+ of snow and the areas that will see a slushy 2-4" with sleet and freezing rain mixed in. The track can also easily shift by 50 miles in the next 24 hours.

 

Right now it looks like the Milwaukee area will see a total of 1-4 slushy inches and the Madison area will see about 3-6". There is also the possibility of enough freezing rain to cause travel headaches because of the cold air already in place. If the colder track ends up happening, an additional 2-4" could fall on top of my forecast totals.

 

Regardless of the actual totals, I recommend just staying inside on Saturday.

[PlayerHader]

So we are looking at up to a foot in Wausau?

[owbc]

Yeah Wausau is going to get dumped on. The official forecast is 10-18", I can't see any reason to dispute that.

 

Edit: the NWS thinks southern WI will get more than I am predicting, but this is one of the most pessimistic forecast discussions I have ever seen. They are basically expecting their forecast to fail:

 

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT COME INTO A REASONABLY TIGHT CONSENSUS...AND THIS IS PRETTY UNUSUAL GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW UNTIL THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. FOCUS OFTEN IS ON THE INCREMENTAL SFC LOW POSITIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS USED AS A ROUGH GUIDE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. A TRACK ACROSS CHICAGO USUALLY MEANS ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL SEE APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO...THE MODELS HAD A STORM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... ESSENTIALLY MISSING US. THEN 36 HOURS AGO MANY OF THE MODELS SHIFTED...RATHER JUMPED...FAR NORTH...TAKING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THAT MEANT MORE OF WET/MIXY WINTER EVENT FOR US. THE SHIFT NORTH ISN/T UNUSUAL...THE DEGREE OF THE JUMP WAS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH NOW. THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ALWAYS HAD A SOLUTION SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.. ACTUALLY SOUTH OF CHICAGO. THE 12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA...NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SOUTH...MOVING IT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WITH THE ENSEMBLE GFS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS OVER CHICAGO. THAT/S TROUBLESOME AND MEANS A COLDER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE HAD. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN AND IS ACTUALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER NOW. MORE TROUBLE. LOOKING AT THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED...THAT COULD BRING WARNING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE VARIED SOLUTIONS OUT THERE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR OUR TWO NRN ROW OF COUNTIES...MINUS OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. KEEP THE WATCH AND ACTUALLY EXPAND IT A BIT. NEED TO SEE MORE CONSENSUS ON A SOUTHERN SOLUTION BEFORE THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXPAND THE WARNING. IN FACT...THE NAM/S NORTHERN SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING RIGHT AND THIS WOULD MAKE THIS FORECAST A BIG GOOSE EGG. WE MAY SEE WINTER STORM WARNING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED...THUS THE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO THE WI/IL BORDER. THE SOUTHERN SHIFT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 500 AND 700MB LOWS ARE ALL VERY SOUTH...CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN SOME CASES...OF THE SFC AND H8 LOW CENTERS AND THIS IS RATHER INVERTED FROM TYPICAL SYNOPTIC ORIENTATION. SO...TO SEE THE LOWER LEVELS PULLED/FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVELS...MAKES MORE SENSE. [/pre]

[sbrylski]

Stop yelling, NWS.

[hawing]

Stop yelling, NWS.

Actually, this fall the NWS solicited input on the possibility of changing its statements from all caps to mixed case.

 

The NWS Sullivan map is weird tonight. The two southernmost tiers of Wisconsin counties (except Grant) are under a Winter Storm Watch. To the immediate north of Dane County is the hot pink Winter Storm Warning. Grant and Crawford counties are in a Winter Weather Advisory. To the southwest (NW Illinois and NE Iowa) is a Blizzard Watch.

 

Something's going to happen in south central Wisconsin; it's just not obvious exactly what yet.

[owbc]

Last model run before the storm and they trended back even farther south again as anticipated.

 

Madison might have frozen precipitation the whole time now--over an inch of liquid water equivalent. I have no idea how Madison always seems to cash in on the big storms, but it looks to be happening again. Precip will start as freezing rain and sleet but quickly change to snow in the afternoon. The forecast will likely be upped to the 8-12" range.

 

Milwaukee is still a little more of a question mark. There should be a nice heavy rain in Milwaukee in the afternoon. Everywhere north and west of a Johnson Creek to Sheboygan line should get at least 8". The rain/snow line will then gradually migrate eastward, with totals decreasing down to 2-3" near Kenosha.

 

It looks like the NWS is going to wait for the European model before going to a warning, that might change my forecast a bit but I'm fairly confident based on the current location of the low in Nebraska.

[davego]

In Eau Claire we are expecting doom. I'd rather deal with zombies then 19 inches of frozen death.

[BrewCrewForever]

In Eau Claire we are expecting doom. I'd rather deal with zombies then 19 inches of frozen death.

Haha, good one davego. Here in Germantown we look to be in the 5-9 inch range when all said in done. Not to bad I guess. But with my small snow blower I will probably do two rounds of removal.

[owbc]

Timing has been pushed back, but this monster is going to strike with a vengeance tonight. Milwaukee has been upgraded to a winter storm warning, so the entire state of Wisconsin is now in a winter storm warning!

[1992casey]

I'm in Milwaukee right now, but my neighbor plowed 10 inches out of my driveway in north central Wisconsin. I'm hoping I'm clear for a drive home tomorrow.

[hawing]

the entire state of Wisconsin is now in a winter storm warning!

Except for the counties in the blizzard warning. Edit: Which now includes the whole southern third of Wisconsin, as of 1:56 PM CST.

 

Also, casey, given the winds expected Sunday, I hope you have a backup plan in case you have to stay in Milwaukee.

 

Edit: The University of Minnesota closed its Twin Cities campus at 1:00 today due to the storm.

[owbc]

Driving back is going to be dangerous tomorrow with the blowing snow. I'm glad this is hitting now and not in 10 days when I have to fly back to WI.