Ron Roenicke Hired as Manager

[trwi7]

The eight candidates.

 

Los Angeles Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke (the winner)

 

ESPN analyst Bobby Valentine

 

Mets scout Bob Melvin

 

Chicago White Sox bench coach Joey Cora

 

Former Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu

 

Los Angeles Dodgers Triple-A manager Tim Wallach

 

Former Cleveland manager Eric Wedge (who got the Seattle job)

 

Washington Nationals third base coach Pat Listach (now the Cubs bench coach)

[topper09er]

Average WPA on successful steals: .0145

Average WPA on unsuccessful steals: -.0451

Based on this the breakeven point was 75.7%, and they were only 66.6% which explains the negative WPA.

 

Also please remember that the goal of baseball is to win games, not score the most runs. Less stealing may lead to more overall runs but many of them will only increase a large lead or be too little too late. Looking at the linear weight of SB and CS over different run scoring environments (http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html) we see that if the game is low scoring, say 2 aces matched up and you predict a 2-1 game

2 runs per game PER TEAM:

SB = .149

CS = -.261

breakeven = 63.7 % only

 

if you predict a high scoring game, say we scored 2 runs in the first and Manny Parra is pitching

8 runs per game PER TEAM:

SB = .212

CS = -.678

breakeven = 76.2%

 

So depending on the context of each INDIVIDUAL game you can swing from less and 2/3 SB rate needed to more than 3/4 rate needed.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm going to blissfully & ignorantly hope that Ron Roenicke isn't going to be Runnin' Ron Roenicke, or Giving-Outs-Away Ron Roenicke. Because that's kind of the impression I got of him in reading about him prior to the official hire. And this press conference doesn't sound like any of the stuff I read was off-base.

 

I'll try to be optimistic about this hire, but I think I'm going to have a hard time.

 

 

I also love that Roenicke said he will make an effort to get to know all

of his players and keep up on their lives. That's something that Macha

definitely didn't do. He failed to get to know Prince and Braun as well,

which were two of the guys that were most important to the team.

 

I definitely got the impression that it was Fielder & Braun that made their relationships with Macha tricky, not the other way around.

[MNBrew]

Some folks' absolute paranoia 'round here about the running game strikes as somewhere between humorous, intense, & annoying. Passing judgement about Roenicke now seems a bit silly.

 

I want an aggressive offense in all respects. I'm optimistic we have a better chance of achieving that under Roenicke.

 

Who knows? Maybe I'm the one out to lunch. Or maybe it's just that I'm willing to give the team some time to play before I make up my mind on what I think will happen.

[bjkrautk]

Mark Belling interviewed Roenicke at the start of the second hour of his show (for anyone looking to track down the audio - he puts the show up as a podcast).

 

Rick Peterson is under contract, but "not an automatic" to come back. Roenicke has spoken with Peterson and is continuing to talk with him; the pitching coach position is one that he believes to be very important to his job.

 

It was also interesting to hear him talk about the rationale behind running and playing an aggressive game: that the team will carry that aggression over to all other aspects of their play, including defense.

[Funketown]

It's amazing how quickly the expletive hits the fan when words like those are uttered here on BF.

 

I obviously don't agree with his philosophy, but I'll wait to judge him. I really want to like this guy based on what little I know about his character, so hopefully he was exaggerating things a bit.

[sbrylski]

Some folks' absolute paranoia 'round here about the running game strikes as somewhere between humorous, intense, & annoying. Passing judgement about Roenicke now seems a bit silly.

 

I want an aggressive offense in all respects. I'm optimistic we have a better chance of achieving that under Roenicke.

 

Who knows? Maybe I'm the one out to lunch. Or maybe it's just that I'm willing to give the team some time to play before I make up my mind on what I think will happen.

Passing judgement? We are trying to make predictions about how he's going to run the team, and then stating what we like/dislike about that potential style of managing.

 

Nobody has actually said he's a crap hire, doesn't know what he's doing, or it won't work out. Just expressing some apprehension about some of his tendencies. We shall see how he handles this team and how it plays out.

 

But what you're saying above is that it's never okay to predict what an individual will bring to a team until he plays/coaches. If we traded for Albert Pujols, could we express excitement over him likely bringing 35-45 homers to the team, even though he hasn't yet? If the Packers signed Randy Moss, could we express doubts about his locker room presence?

 

Nobody has written Roenicke off yet.

[And That]

I obviously don't agree with his philosophy, but I'll wait to judge him. I really want to like this guy based on what little I know about his character, so hopefully he was exaggerating things a bit.

This is basically how I feel about him. It remains to be seen how his philosophy will actually play out on the field.

[RockCoCougars]

This team should have no problem doubling their stolen base output next season. The fact that Gomez, Weeks, and Escobar COMBINED for less than 40 steals is criminal, especially considering the fact that they had an 80 percent success rate. Each of those guys should be able to steal 40 bases on their own.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Gomez or Escobar can get on base enough to steal 40.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think Gomez or Escobar can get on base enough to steal 40.

You definitely have a point there, but if they get 500 or so plate appearances (which didn't and probably won't happen for Gomez) they had better be getting on base enough to steal 40.

[Tbadder]

In all fairness to him we've got to reserve judgement. I do believe it's important for the Brewers to run more because they've got the guys to do it. A good manager will utilize what he's got, and several Brewers need to be running. I think the Brewers will steal more runs than they lose based on the talent we have, but in the end I don't think it will matter all that much. What I do believe is that he will be an excellent communicator, which is what a team that skews young really needs. I think this will help the clubhouse immensely. I don't know if that will translate into more wins. I also believe that his apprenticeship couldn't have been under a better guy. I hope some of that translates to his managerial style. Overall, this is the kind of hopeful choice I'm glad management made. I would have really been upset with Melvin.

[patrickgpe]

most surprising thing i fell is that he said on belling's show that peterson wasn't a lock to make the staff and he though peterson was a good pitching coach but he had others in mind, will meet with melvin tomorrow.

 

you can go to www.belling.com and go to the podcast link and do hour 2 part 1 if you want hear the interview....

[Ennder]

Does it surprise anyone that someone who worked with Mike Scioscia and Joe Maddon would want to be aggressive on the basepaths? Both of those managers are known for this and it has worked pretty well for them overall.

[MNBrew]

Some folks' absolute paranoia 'round here about the running game strikes as somewhere between humorous, intense, & annoying. Passing judgement about Roenicke now seems a bit silly.

 

I want an aggressive offense in all respects. I'm optimistic we have a better chance of achieving that under Roenicke.

 

Who knows? Maybe I'm the one out to lunch. Or maybe it's just that I'm willing to give the team some time to play before I make up my mind on what I think will happen.

Passing judgement? We are trying to make predictions about how he's going to run the team, and then stating what we like/dislike about that potential style of managing.

 

Nobody has actually said he's a crap hire, doesn't know what he's doing, or it won't work out. Just expressing some apprehension about some of his tendencies. We shall see how he handles this team and how it plays out.

 

But what you're saying above is that it's never okay to predict what an individual will bring to a team until he plays/coaches. If we traded for Albert Pujols, could we express excitement over him likely bringing 35-45 homers to the team, even though he hasn't yet? If the Packers signed Randy Moss, could we express doubts about his locker room presence?

 

Nobody has written Roenicke off yet.

Pardon me. I misspoke. Your reaction was to points I wasn't intending to make.

 

What I meant was to say, "Passing judgement about Roenicke's preferred style at this point in time seems a bit silly." And I said it because that theme has come out multiple times over this & other relevant threads.

[dlk9s]

I really think everyone is worrying too much about "small ball" and base stealing. I really doubt Roenicke is all of a sudden going to start having guys bunt every time a runner gets to first base or have the team attempt to steal 500 times next season. He seems like a very smart guy - he'll evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the team and do what he feels is best to get the most out of each inning. People are acting like McGehee is going to attempt 30 stolen bases and Prince is going to bunt whenever Braun gets on base ahead of him.

[dlk9s]

I should add that from a personality stand point, I couldn't be more thrilled with the hire. Roenicke sounds like a manager that the players will grow to respect tremendously.

[carniesandrubes]

Fun fact: 97% of new baseball managers say their new team is going to be more aggressive and run more during their introductory press conference.

[bork]

Besides the Peterson comment, the other comment that stood out on the Belling interview was that Del Crandall was the one manager he admired the most in his years in baseball.

 

He also mentioned how impressed he was with the Milwaukee fans when the Angels played the Indians in the snowout series.

[PrinceFielderx1]

This team should have no problem doubling their stolen base output next season. The fact that Gomez, Weeks, and Escobar COMBINED for less than 40 steals is criminal, especially considering the fact that they had an 80 percent success rate. Each of those guys should be able to steal 40 bases on their own.

This is one of the main reasons why I didn't like Macha's managerial style. He IMO was holding this offense back. The offense was still good, but he could have done a lot more with it. I'm even more in favor of this signing based on some of the comments from Roenicke.

[bullox]

Tell you what - I'm going to form an opinion and possibly discredit this guy half a year before his team ever hits the field. Go get em!

[Sage]

Fun fact: 97% of new baseball managers say their new team is going to be more aggressive and run more during their introductory press conference.

Fun fact: 78% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

I'm very impressed with Mr. Roenicke, and I suspect that he will quickly earn the respect of the Brewers' clubhouse. He sounds like a very, very smart person that should be a very good manager. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in his first season.

[ELCABALLO45]

Does it surprise anyone that someone who worked with Mike Scioscia and Joe Maddon would want to be aggressive on the basepaths? Both of those managers are known for this and it has worked pretty well for them overall.

This. Agreed 100 percent.

 

I know its hard to judge a guy just from watching a press conference but I really liked what I heard from him.

[And That]

Tell you what - I'm going to form an opinion and possibly discredit this guy half a year before his team ever hits the field. Go get em!

It's not ok to form an opinion of someone from hearing them talk?

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really don't expect Roenicke to go overboard with base stealing and stuff, but seriously we have so many guys on this team that could be stealing an incredible amount of bases. That didn't happen because Macha was our manager. With Roenicke in control, we'll see Weeks taking off a lot more, Hart taking off more, and so on. Guys like Escobar, Cain, and Gomez will go to town if they can get on base enough. Aggressive base running could make a real difference for this team when it comes to scoring runs. Especially if we do end up trading Fielder, I think we need to steer away from being known for home run hitting. Not that we can't still hit home runs, but we do need to produce runs in other ways and aggressive base running is a way to do that.