Can Mark Rogers start 2011 in MLB and then limit his innings?

[The Truth]

Mark Rogers looked very impressive at the end of the season. I'm wondering what the logic is of pitching him in Nashville next year? If the problem is innings, can't his innings just be limited in Milwaukee? i.e. have him skip some starts utilizing off days early in the season so it doesn't mess with the other pitchers in the rotation, or have a long reliever make a few spot starts against lesser opponents?

 

I want the Brewers to start out 2011 with the best possible rotation, and starting Rogers in AAA seems like a waste. I don't get the whole "injury risk" thing either as a logical argument if his innings are limited. Isn't pitching in AAA just as hard on the arm as MLB? If anything, his health will be better taken care of in Milwaukee in terms of better facilities, better training staff, easier modes of travel etc

 

If the Brewers see 2011 as a rebuilding year and they want to limit Rogers' service time, well thats an entirely different scenario, otherwise I just don't get it

 

Clue me in here

[And That]

If they wait a few months (or whatever it is) to bring him up, they'll have him for an extra year down the road. That's the main reason they won't/shouldn't put him in the big league rotation out of spring training. It's also easier to manipulate his innings in AAA where winning, in effect, is not the priority.

[PlayerHader]

In all honesty, I would look to get whatever innings out of Roger's arm that we can right now while he is healthy. It sounds sinister, but the chances of him in 6 years being as healthy and strong as he is right now aren't the greatest.

[The Truth]

thanks... OK, so essentially it is about service time, and I get that. However, what if Fielder isn't traded? (I see that scenario as possible considering his trade value might not be as high as the Brewers wish). What if they bring back Fielder for 2011, one more year to "go for it" as the PR will be spun in the fans direction. Seems to me that you want to start out with the best rotation possible in April/May, get off to a fast start, not be essentially "out of it" all season like the 2010 Brewers were.

 

I realize alot of all that depends on what other moves are made. Alot can and likely will happen between now and late March

 

Manipulating innings in AAA is easier, good point....

[thebruce44]

thanks... OK, so essentially it is about service time, and I get that. However, what if Fielder isn't traded? (I see that scenario as possible considering his trade value might not be as high as the Brewers wish). What if they bring back Fielder for 2011, one more year to "go for it" as the PR will be spun in the fans direction. Seems to me that you want to start out with the best rotation possible in April/May, get off to a fast start, not be essentially "out of it" all season like the 2010 Brewers were.

 

I realize alot of all that depends on what other moves are made. Alot can and likely will happen between now and late March

 

Manipulating innings in AAA is easier, good point....

 

While Rogers looked very good at the end of this year, he still has plenty to work on in the minors. Yes, he was all but unhitable, but the control can still improve.

 

Unless a guy is absolutely tearing it up and is clearly better than your 4th or 5th starter, I see no reason to lose a year of his service time for an extra month or two no matter what situation the team is in.

[The Truth]

thebruce44 : so we're banking on Rogers being a significant part of the 2017 Brewers and don't care as much about the start the Brewers have in 2011? Isn't Rogers already clearly better than Narveson/Capuano/Parra?

[Invader3K]

I agree with those saying he should start with the Brewers in 2011 if at all possible. With his injury history, I am not going to get overly concerned with service time. I realize starting pitching is extremely valuable, but counting on him to still be an effective starter in 2015 or 2016 seems to be like not seeing the forest for the trees. If he's really good in 2011 and 2012 (and still healthy), they can offer him an extension buying out his first year or two of free agency, and he'll probably take it (if he's not foolish).

[And That]

I don't think we're going to be competitive enough next year where Rogers missing 8-10 big league starts and the difference between whatever the result of those starts would be and the guy who makes those big league starts in his stead is going to cost us a playoff spot.

 

I'd rather Rogers' innings be kept down (and he will be limited to 150-160 innings next year) in the minors, as opposed to him missing starts and working out of the bullpen burning service time. I don't agree with the thought that you have to assume he's going to injured a few years down the road.

[endaround]

He wasn't that good last year. His control was spotty and he needs to slowly work up his innings anyway. Have him as the injury call up from AAA and he'll liekly be up by June for a while anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

While Rogers looked very good at the end of this year, he still has plenty to work on in the minors. Yes, he was all but unhitable, but the control can still improve.

I've read/heard that one reason Rogers's BB rate looks so bad in the minor is that he was often working on his secondary pitches. Small sample of course, but his command looked very good in the bigs this season, and his 2.7 BB/9 supports that. Frankly, I think he's basically MLB-ready now, but agree with Toby that the Brewers would probably be foolish to not stash him in AAA for the early parts of '11 & salvage an extra year of salary control.

[And That]

My big takeaway from the past two seasons is that the Brewers sucked because they couldn't competently develop good pitching. Trading two months of service time for (potentially) one year of service time of a good pitcher would seem to further the Brewers' incompetence in that regard.

[TheCrew07]

Rogers had 10 IP in MLB and 116 between AA-AAA for a total of 126 IP this last season. Lets not get carried away over 10 nice IP at MLB, and I've always been a huge Rogers supporter on the MiLB forum.

 

If you bring him up immediately the scenario is 160ish innings of Rogers + 60 replacement innings from some other starter, I think it's foolish to push him into the 180 IP range when he just finally broke the 100 IP threshold for the first time in his career (He pitched 98.2 innings in 2005). I understand the "he might get hurt again" argument, but why should we go out of our way to add unnecessary risk?

 

Start him in Nashville and see how his command holds up, that's his biggest issue as a pitcher. It doesn't do him, the team, or us any good if he starts in Milwaukee and isn't locating effectively. Mark wasn't exactly what I would term "economical with his pitches" this season, he needs work in that dept. We have already have a bunch of guys who struggle to get through the 6th, I see no reason to add to that issue for the sake of pushing Rogers. Melvin will bring in some oldie retread and Rogers will find his way into the rotation soon enough as an injury replacement regardless. When that happens, I doubt he goes back down.

 

If he ends up being lights out in spring training and earns a slot in the rotation I'll live with it, but if they are pushing him just to push him, I'll take serious issue with what's happening. I would love for him to take a big jump over the winter, I'm just not sure how realistic that is. Mark is ascending as a player, I'm just not sure what to comfortably predict from him next spring.

 

The minor league pitcher who's ready to jump into the rotation and go the distance innings wise is Amaury Rivas, I hope he gets a shot to show what he's got in ST next season. He's gone 120, 133, and 141 IP over the last 3 seasons... I could get pretty excited about a Gallardo, Jeffress, Rogers, Rivas, and Wolf rotation to close out 2011.

[logan82]

Narveson and Parra should be huge reminders of what a few innings in September mean about future success.

[thebruce44]

While Rogers looked very good at the end of this year, he still has plenty to work on in the minors. Yes, he was all but unhitable, but the control can still improve.

I've read/heard that one reason Rogers's BB rate looks so bad in the minor is that he was often working on his secondary pitches. Small sample of course, but his command looked very good in the bigs this season, and his 2.7 BB/9 supports that. Frankly, I think he's basically MLB-ready now, but agree with Toby that the Brewers would probably be foolish to not stash him in AAA for the early parts of '11 & salvage an extra year of salary control.

I have heard this too and agree. That being said, with such a small amount of experience in the upper levels I still think he has plenty to work on in AAA next year. Basically, I am trying to say that another couple of months in the minors isn't going to hurt his development and I don't think it will significantly hurt the Brewers chances at the playoffs next season either.

 

Do I think Rogers is significantly better than Narv-dog/Cappy? I think he will be a year or two from now. The first two months of next season? I have no idea. I would hate to find out he isn't while burning a year of service time.

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

He still has some command issues to work on. You don't want to be straining your bullpen in April in May covering 4 innings every time he starts or having "bullpen days" while Rogers skips starts. That will toast their pen by Flag Day. Presumably they will add at least one starter via trade to fit in with Gallardo, Wolf, and Narveson. Wolf (3.71) and Narveson (3.89) were both effective starters over the 2nd half. Along with Gallardo and likely one top half of rotation starter to be had in a deal, that will be 4/5 of their April rotation.

 

The 5th guy will be keeping Rogers spot warm. Ideally, I think that should be Loe myself. If you assume Hawkins returns in decent form, along with the likes of McClendon, Villanueva, Braddock, and Parra, they should have the bullpen covered to get to Axford. Loe, a starter most of his professional career, showed he can smoothly transition from starter to short reliever. Instead of starting out at Nashville as he did last year, start him in Milwaukee. By mid-season when Rogers shows he's ready, the bullpen will probably need bolstering so just move Loe back out there and insert a fresh Rogers capable of making regular starts.

[JohnBriggs12]

Narveson and Parra should be huge reminders of what a few innings in September mean about future success.

Narveson posted some solid numbers (1.378 WHIP, 7.4 K/9IP, a .266 BAA, 12 wins). Not sure why you're lumping him in with Parra. Parra as a starter was 2-7, with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. Narveson was 11-9 with a 4.85 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP as a starter. That 1.31 WHIP as a starter was best on the team.

[1992casey]

Mark's pitch counts and innings totals are the overriding factors. It's hard to limit pitch counts and innings in the majors. To accomplish that, you'd probably have to start him out as a reliever. When the team would want him to start, he wouldn't be stretched out. As pointed out above, in the minors, the team can pitch him any way they want.

 

Service time doesn't always need to be an overriding factor, but given everything else involved, it may as well come into play. Mark has approximately a month of time right now. A month plus 20 days in the minors would allow the team to keep him an extra year. While less important, super-two can also be considered. That would mean leaving him in the minors about three months. Of course, all this service time stuff assumes he stays up for good once he finally gets the call.

[logan82]

I meant Narveson and Villanueva actually but I will lump them all together.

[CheezWizHed]

Isn't Rogers already clearly better than Narveson/Capuano/Parra?

 

I don't think we have seen enough of Rogers to come to that conclusion. Lots of players pitch great for the first couple outings, then MLB figures them out, scouting reports proliferate, and teams start hitting them.

 

Remember that Parra's first 14.2 innings in the MLB, he had 3ER, 15K, 3BB, and 12H.

 

So, no, I don't think Roger's 10 innings give me any indication that he is better than Narveson, Capuano or Parra.

[Ennder]

Remember that Parra's first 14.2 innings in the MLB, he had 3ER, 15K, 3BB, and 12H.

 

And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career.

 

Having said all that, 10 IP is really completely meaningless so we don't know anything about Rogers from a major league standpoint.

[CheezWizHed]

And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career.

 

I don't remember the injury you mentioned, but I don't think he has had any injury since '07 (his MLB debut) that would effect him long term. Inability to control his pitches has stalled his career.

[thebruce44]

Remember that Parra's first 14.2 innings in the MLB, he had 3ER, 15K, 3BB, and 12H.

 

And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career.

 

Having said all that, 10 IP is really completely meaningless so we don't know anything about Rogers from a major league standpoint.

Are you saying that Parra's career took a different turn than it would have without said hand injury?

[Ennder]

Remember that Parra's first 14.2 innings in the MLB, he had 3ER, 15K, 3BB, and 12H.

 

And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career.

 

Having said all that, 10 IP is really completely meaningless so we don't know anything about Rogers from a major league standpoint.

Are you saying that Parra's career took a different turn than it would have without said hand injury?

I'm saying the shoulder surgery in 2006, the broken pitching thumb in 2007, the huge innings jump in 2008, the neck injury and shoulder surgery in 2009 and then the hip injury in 2010 makes Parra a very hard player to use as an example of anything. How much of it is the injuries and how much of it is something else. It is pretty much impossible to say.

[twobrewers]

The Brewers have expressed interest in returning Jeffress to a starting role - but he also has very limited innings on his arm.

 

Neither him, nor Rogers, appear to need much more seasoning before they are MLB ready.

 

Since it appears that the biggest obstacle would be the large innings jump for both of them as starter - can someone give me a legitimate reason why we shouldn't piggy-back them as starters? We would need 33 starts at 9 innings each for them for a total of 297 innings. Rogers can start and pitching approximately 160 innings and Jeffress can back him up with about 140 innings.

 

I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't combine for an ERA under 5.00. Plus they would be working with the best coaches the Brewer have to offer against the best competition.

[trwi7]

Jeffress needs quite a bit more seasoning imo.