Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners

[Invader3K]

The biggest thing with Dunn is that Dunn would likely be willing to sign with the Brewers, something many other top flight FAs would not be.

Wasn't there some quote out there about him not liking Milwaukee? I could be wrong. At this point, he probably would...but it would likely take a 4 year deal, maybe at $15 million per year. I don't think that would be a horrible deal for the Brewers, but you had better be sure we can get some good pitching for Fielder before committing to Dunn.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i dont understand why dunn would hate milwaukee. he has always killed it there.

[Invader3K]

i dont understand why dunn would hate milwaukee. he has always killed it there.

Well, like I said, I could be mistaken. I assume he would come here if the Brewers are willing to beat out everyone else. The nice thing with Dunn is that you basically know what you will get from him every year, as he is extremely consistent offensively. Defensively, you know he's going to be a negative going in. Whether he's worse than Fielder seems debatable to me.

[greeg35]

I like Dunn; but he seems to be in the opposite direction from where Roenicke and the gang are going.....lots strikeouts, slow (understatement), bad defense.

[nate82]

Wasn't there some quote out there about him not liking Milwaukee? I could be wrong. At this point, he probably would...but it would likely take a 4 year deal, maybe at $15 million per year. I don't think that would be a horrible deal for the Brewers, but you had better be sure we can get some good pitching for Fielder before committing to Dunn.

Well if Milwaukee is the only team that offers him the chance to play 1B which is what Dunn wants to do then I don't see him turning down an option of playing 1B over just being a DH because he doesn't like the stadium.

[reillymcshane]

If the Brewers don't trade Fielder, what are the odds that someone actually tops the 5-year $100 million deal that they offered this past year?

 

He can hit, no doubt, but he also sports poor defense, slow base running, and a body type that scares a lot of people.

 

How do people perceive him? As Adam Dunn? As Ryan Howard?

 

Do teams see Dunn as a $15+ million/year player - much less $20 million? Unlikely. Is Fielder that much different than Dunn? If not, maybe the Brewer offer will turn out to be the best that Fielder gets.

 

Howard (who gets $25 million a year) and Fielder aren't that dissimilar - but Howard from 2006-09 he averaged 49.5 HR a year. Fielder averaged 40 the past four years. Is it realistic to use the Howard contract as a benchmark? Or were the Phillies a bit insane to give out this contract? I don't think any team really considered Howard a $25 million/year player.

 

If Prince hits 'average' - say 40 HR, .280ish BA, .390-.400 OBP - is someone going to drop more than $20 million for him?

 

Perhaps it will come down to what kind of season he has - if it's 35-40 HR, maybe no one will sniff near $20 million. But a 50 HR season and someone will likley look beyond the warts and add the impact bat. Especially a team with an opening - such as Boston (see you Big Papi) or the Dodgers or Orioles or Cubs.

 

Fielder has expressed a desire to play 1B - not DH. Does he take $20 million from Boston to DH or $20 million from Milwaukee to play 1B?

 

With that in mind, it might just be best to hang on to Prince. If he has a monster year, perhaps he prices himself out of Milwaukee - but if he does have a monster year, that might mean the Brewers are in playoff contention. Even if we lose him, we still get 2 draft picks. But if we trade him now, I doubt we'll get the chance to bring him back. Keeping him might be worth the risk - assuming you want to sink $20 million a year in Prince following 2011 (and that's another question - if Prince does hit .280 with 40 HR, would you bring him back for $20/year for five years).

[thebruce44]

i dont understand why dunn would hate milwaukee. he has always killed it there.

 

 

I think he complained about the batter's eye a while back.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd be very leery about giving Dunn $15 million a season for four years. I think that's low though, some foolish team will give him more, though probably for fewer years. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 3 yr/ $55 million. As I said, Dunn isn't getting any younger, and baseball history has shown that big guys like him tend to hit the wall quickly once they do. He may be able to maintain for the length of the contract, but it's a bad gamble. Dude has DH written all over him, because if he starts to break down with knee/foot/leg problems, he's not going to be able to play the field- not even considering that he's inadequate out there at this point. Because Prince is so much younger, I'd gladly give him an extra 5 million or so per season, as long as the deal didn't go longer than 4-5 years.

[nate82]

Prince is going to get a deal similar to Howard's contract but with more years added onto that contract. You will have a lot of teams bidding on Prince and those teams are going to have a lot of money to spend. The teams that will be bidding on Prince in 2011 will be the Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, Cubs, White Sox, and the Jays. You could even add in the Cardinals as being a team that maybe looking at Prince to replace Pujols if a deal doesn't get done there. There will be three players on the market for those teams to sign that will be the big prizes. What Prince does in 2010 will not have as much of an impact on his contract that he will receive. With there only being Gonzalez, Prince, and Pujols on the market after the 2011 season I don't see how Prince doesn't get a huge payday. If the Cardinals resign Pujols then Prince and Gonzalez will be getting contracts similar to what Howard got and probably a little bit more.

 

Prince is going to receive a deal at something like $170m and 7 years from a team. That completely blows Milwaukee out of the market for Prince and I believe Prince would take that deal and be a DH at Boston, Baltimore, or Toronto. I am not sure the Cubs, White Sox, or the Nationals would be able to match that. I think the Nationals may try and match that depending on what they give Pena this off season that is though I only see Pena getting a 1-year deal.

[RockCoCougars]

My gut says that Prince is not going to get as much as people think unless he has a huge year next season (I'm talking Top 5 MVP). I base this mostly on the fact that teams seem leery at best trading for him. From what we know, last deadline, teams were not blowing up Melvin's pager. I don't think this completely is because these teams are simply going to wait until 2012 to get him without giving up players. He wasn't a rental player, either. Any team that wanted him could have had him for two playoff runs relatively inexpensively. It seems that a lot of teams have the same issues that the Brewers and fans here have....his size, his defense, and most importantly dealing with Boras. How's that going to change in 12 months? Finally, it seems that the economy has kind of driven down the market on free agents. A lot of guys so far have taken one year deals, the Yankees are telling guys like Jeter to test the market, etc. Time will tell, but Prince may end up kicking himself someday for turning down the Brewer's extension offer.

[PrinceEatMeat]

My gut says that Prince is not going to get as much as people think unless he has a huge year next season (I'm talking Top 5 MVP). I base this mostly on the fact that teams seem leery at best trading for him. From what we know, last deadline, teams were not blowing up Melvin's pager. I don't think this completely is because these teams are simply going to wait until 2012 to get him without giving up players. He wasn't a rental player, either. Any team that wanted him could have had him for two playoff runs relatively inexpensively. It seems that a lot of teams have the same issues that the Brewers and fans here have....his size, his defense, and most importantly dealing with Boras. How's that going to change in 12 months? Finally, it seems that the economy has kind of driven down the market on free agents. A lot of guys so far have taken one year deals, the Yankees are telling guys like Jeter to test the market, etc. Time will tell, but Prince may end up kicking himself someday for turning down the Brewer's extension offer.

I don't think there's any way possible that he gets less than what Howard got. And I think that's what most people are expecting him to get. So I have to disagree with you. Obviously people think Howard got overpaid, and he did, but there's no reason to think that Fielder won't also be overpaid. I would be shocked if Boras couldn't get him at least $25 million per year. So I highly doubt he'll regret rejecting $20 million a year.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am just a little torn on how we proceed here, as I am sure Doug is. I guess I'd like to trade Prince, but not for too little. I just think he's gone after this year and would rather get something fairly good in trade vs. take the picks after the season. I am one of the ones that would take Gavin Floyd for Prince if we can get that offer on the table. I also really don't want McGehee or Gamel as our first baseman of the future, if that's what Doug is thinking. That would seem to lead to two other ideas. 1) We could trade McGehee as our first big off-season move for a #3 type of starting pitcher. All of a sudden, there is not that incredible need for a starting pitcher like there is now, so teams wouldn't be able to low ball us for Prince. Just a theory I have I guess that trading McGehee before Prince might lead to us getting better offers for Prince. The other option would be to go out and sign Dunn for 4/60. I frankly would like for him to be our first baseman for a contract like that. Does signing Dunn lead to improved offers for Prince, or lesser offers? I am not sure. I guess I am saying that if I am Doug, maybe try and deal McGehee for pitching first and get yourself involved a bit with Dunn. Doing one or both of these things might lead to better offers and more suiters for Prince.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I like Dunn; but he seems to be in the opposite direction from where Roenicke and the gang are going.....lots strikeouts, slow (understatement), bad defense.

I guess Roenicke wanted the Brewers to keep Fielder. There was a quote a wile back I can't remember what article it was from.. So my point is that if Roenicke wanted Fielder then why wouldn't he want Dunn?

[Invader3K]

I really doubt Melvin will or won't trade Fielder based on "Roenicke wants to keep him." That quote was obviously just a cover in case the Brewers don't get any decent trade offers for him.

[Hate those Rodents]

Yeah, there's not a manager in baseball that wouldn't take Prince Fielder on their team or want him on their team. Same for Adam Dunn I'm sure. I am betting Roenicke would probably take Dunn and say Gavin Floyd over Fielder not only for next season but for future seasons as well.

 

Take a look at this lineup

 

Weeks

Cain

Braun

Dunn

Hart

Gamel

Lucroy

Escobar

 

Starters

Gallardo

Floyd

Pitcher for McGehee

Wolf

Narveson

 

This team no doubt competes for the playoffs this year and beyond and is very fiscally responsible as well.

[RockCoCougars]

Dunn + Floyd is going to cost in the neighborhood of $25 million per in a couple of years. I think that Dunn will be $15 million per at the very least- probably $16-$18 million as he made $12 million last year, and he's getting a raise for sure- someone's going to overpay. Floyd will be getting at least $7 million, and over $9 million if his 2013 option is picked up. I'm not sure that I'd want to lock into that kind of cash for those two. Call me crazy, but I'd rather give Prince $22 million and use the $3 million towards another pitcher. Floyd has strung together three decent seasons, but nothing earthshattering- he doesn't have dominant stuff by any means. If you give Dunn a four year deal, he's going to be 35 at the end of it. A huge risk if you ask me. Prince is 5 years younger and despite his rotund frame, the guy has been extremely durable. I'd offer Prince a 5 year/ 110 million deal with an option for a sixth year of $30 million that vests if he plays a significant portion of the games. I'm not sure how he could leave that on the table.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd offer Prince a 5 year/ 110 million deal with an option for a sixth year of $30 million that vests if he plays a significant portion of the games.

 

I really want no part of paying a 32-yo Fielder $30M. I agree that kind of deal would be about as much money as he could get, though.

[endaround]

Dunn had to settle for the Nats last time since they were the only ones who would even offer him 2 years at 8 figures. I don't know why his value is suddenly going to mean he'll get a 4-5 year deal.

[Invader3K]

I'd offer Prince a 5 year/ 110 million deal with an option for a sixth year of $30 million that vests if he plays a significant portion of the games.

 

I really want no part of paying a 32-yo Fielder $30M. I agree that kind of deal would be about as much money as he could get, though.

Plus that proposed offer isn't really much more than the Brewers were already rumored to have offered. Prince is holding out for at least $150 million or so, which the Brewers should have no part of.

[greeg35]

So my point is that if Roenicke wanted Fielder then why wouldn't he want Dunn?

 

 

I think that's a valid point as they have similarities; but Fielder and Dunn are quite different. Fielder is more athletic (relatively speaking) and I think he's better in the field, not to mention that Fielder is younger. The biggest difference is that resigning Fielder would have a positive PR effect for the Brewers. I also think they don't realistically think that they'll be able to sign Fielder. Melvin has shown he will make his best offer knowing that it probably isn't good enough just to say he tried his best to sign a guy (like CC). So I don't think they'll sign either of them for different reasons.

I agree with Cougars that Boras/Fielder may get a rude awakening when they see how bad the current market is even compared to the market when Howard signed a couple years ago.

[endaround]

The current market just gave Juan Uribe 3 years at $7m per. The current market just gave a guy coming off a dismal year with a dying fastball $7m with a full NTC.

[greeg35]

I guess I was talking about the market for Fielder and first basemen specifically. If they are expecting a Howard type contract I think they'll be disappointed. Heck, Howard shouldn't have even gotten a Howard contract. Time will tell.

[Invader3K]

Story is up on MLB Trade Rumors that Dunn is seeking a 4 year/$60 million deal. So that's in the wheelhouse of what we were discussing on this board.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Story is up on MLB Trade Rumors that Dunn is seeking a 4 year/$60 million deal. So that's in the wheelhouse of what we were discussing on this board.

I knew he was looking for at least a 4 year deal. With that said that is still way less then Fielder would get. I say give him the deal.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Problem with Dunn is that we wouldn't even start to consider him until we got rid of Fielder. And that likely won't happen for awhile. If we signed Dunn we're conceding that we are getting rid of Fielder and lose all leverage.