Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners

[NYChez]

Eliminated because can't afford him or already have a 1B/DH (13): TB, Tor, KC, Cle, Oak, Phi, Fla, Wash, Stl, Cin, Pit, Ariz, SD

Here are possible suitors, from least likely to most likely:

Least likely: Yankees - Have Teixeria locked up thru 2016 and A-Rod tied up through 2017. A-Rod will be a DH by 2014 and will be owed over $80 M after that. There's just not a long-term spot for Prince.

2nd least likely: Dodgers - Have Loney who they like, but the main thing is the Dodgers are too cheap.

Group of teams that traditionally don't pay huge contracts but may try to make a splash (7):

Houston, Atlanta, Minnesota (replace Thome), Baltimore, Colorado (replace Helton - imagine how many HR's he'd hit at Coors), Texas, Milwaukee.

Mid-market teams that pay big contracts and could use offense (3): White Sox, Detroit, Seattle.

Huge market teams that need a 1B / DH (5): Angels, Mets, Cubs, San Fran, Boston.

Given this list:

1. Do people agree that the Yankees are NOT a serious contender?

2. Would anyone move a team from my eliminated list to being a possibility.

3. Can someone with a knowledge of each team's prospects eliminate some of the teams not already eliminated based on them not having what the Brewers need.

[trwi7]

Only ones I could possibly see are the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers and Orioles. White Sox are out because their farm system is horrid. Orioles are unlikely I think. I don't think McPhail is going to trade a bunch of young cost-controlled players for one year of Fielder when Fielder won't take them anywhere near playoff contention. So that leaves the Tigers who have some interesting pieces and Rangers.

[LouisEly]

Prolly should belong in the Trade Rumors forum, but...

 

...never underestimate the inferiority complex the Mets have on the Yankees. While logic dictates they shouldn't do it... since when do the Mets operate under logic? They can't stand being in the Yankees shadow, and if given the chance may very well want to make some headlines to draw attention to themselves.

 

The Angels have Kendry Morales at 1B coming back from the broken leg. Matsui is a free agent, but they might very well slide Abreu to DH since he has at least one year left, possibly two guaranteed if he gets 550 PAs next year or 1100 combined PAs between 2010-11.

 

Boston doesn't really need one. Youkillis and Ortiz have those positions locked down pretty good. I don't see why Boston wouldn't pick up Ortiz's $12.5M option for 2011 to go to Fielder unless they want to sign him long-term as a DH. They can pick up Ortiz's option for 2011 and then sign Fielder as a FA after 2011 so they don't have to trade anything for him - just a draft pick.

 

I say give permission to Boras to seek a trade with a deal for a contract extension in the offseason if collective bargaining rules allow it. Let him find out what the market really is, then come crawling back for that 5-year, $100M contract they offered.

[sveumrules]

Don't rule out OAK.

 

They've taken chances on one year rentals the last couple years (Holliday, Sheets) and have a serious lack of power. Oh wait, Prince is too fat for Beane. Forget I said anything.

[craigharmann]

I think Detroit is probably the most intriguing place. They need to get butts in the seats, and since big Cecil played there, and Prince grew up there, that could help them. Plus Prince still has the boulder on his shoulder about daddy, I believe, so that could be payback in Prince's eyes.

[Hammer]

I put it in the trade forum about 3 weeks ago that Prince was really close to going to Detroit at the deadline (per the radio host that claimed that he was in the know). I really think that this deal goes down this offseason as Detroit could really use another bat to go with what they currently have.

[Invader3K]

Detroit, Angels, and Rangers seem like the three most likely fits to me.

 

And yeah, this should probably be in the Trade Rumors forum.

[colbyjack]

The Mets have Ike Davis, and the Braves have Freddie Freeman. I don't think either one is in the market for a 1B. Todd Helton is the face of the Rockies franchise even if he is getting old, but he re-worked his contact last March to make it much more manageable. The Giants got very good productivity from Huff this season, and they also saw Brandon Belt enjoy a breakout season in the minors. They still are a candidate, but not as obvious of one IMO. I don't see the Red Sox being a fit unless Beltre leaves via free agency and Youkilis moves back to 3B.

 

I don't see the Brewers dealing Fielder to either the Cubs or Astros, even if they may be good fits. And I would agree that it seems unlikely the Yankees would get involved with Fielder.

 

I think the Orioles could get involved. They have some young players coming up, but are lacking the one, big impact bat that Fielder could provide. They have some young pitching to deal (Zach Britton?), and may be one of those teams looking to make some noise this offseason.

 

But yes, I think the Tigers are the best fit given their needs, what they have to trade, willingness and ability to deal with big free agents and Scott Boras, and past history of being willing to trade young talent.

[44Fishy]

Do you think Jack Z might make a run at him?

With the haul they got for Cliff Lee, they have a few pieces to play with, especially the pitcher with the criminal past (Lueke, I think) and I'm sure they would love to get rid of that PR nightmare-

That would give the Mariners the flexibility to move Fielder at the deadline like they did with Lee-
Then they have more time to let Smoak get ready in the minors-

[Invader3K]

How severe is Luebke's "baggage?" Would the Brewers want to deal with him?

[44Fishy]

Josh Lueke's baggage:

Sounds like he got a little Rothlisberger-ish with a woman and got popped for it-
IIRC the charges included false imprisonment and sodomy-
Short jail sentence, a few months, I think-
Pretty major for her, but I don't think it's the type of thing that is going to derail his career-

The baggage for the Mariners was that somebody along the chain of command didn't relay that information to the Mariners President (I think) and he was asked about it in an interview and he had no idea and he was pretty ticked off about it-
So they looked like either they didn't do their due diligence (doubtful) or that they didn't share the info either because they forgot to or because they were worried the President would veto the deal-
One of their longtime scouting directors fell on the sword over the deal, but there's a good chance it was Jack trying to sweep something under the rug-
In the team's mass e-mail to fans yesterday, they touted all their big-time prospects by name that fans can look forward to seeing in the years to come, but Lueke's name was absent from the list-

I'm not saying he'd be the centerpiece of a deal, he's just a young relief pitcher, but they are definitely motivated to move him and could include him in a package-
from NBC's Hardball Talk blog:

Granted, maybe Lueke doesn't fit the definition of a "top prospect" by virtue of being a reliever, but he did post a 1.86 ERA and 94/14 K/BB ratio over 63 innings between the Rangers and Mariners organizations this season. Some have even mentioned him as a future closer. The 25-year-old right-hander pitched 12 games with Triple-A Tacoma to end the season, so they'll have to make up their minds pretty soon.

[Invader3K]

I remember reading recently that Zdureincik admitted they hadn't done enough due diligence on him. Thanks for the clarifications.

[Principessa21]

I think you can add Yankees to the eliminated list. Besides Teixeira and Rodriguez, there is also Posada, Jeter, and possibly Montero.

 

The only reasons why the Red Sox wouldn't pick up the option on Ortiz are because 12.5 is a lot for a DH and he was awful against lefties (OPS .599). Still I'd be surprised if the option wasn't pick up/ Prince ended up there.

 

RE: Zdureincik and Lueke

I call BS on JackZ. Not only did a former coach come out and said he did tell Zdurincik before the trade, but Lueke's troubles were reported right after the Lee deal was completed.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not interested in adding anyone with the character of Lueke.

 

If Detroit wants in, it starts with Scherzer, not Porcello. I can see them moving Porcello, because he lacks the stuff to be a top of the rotation pitcher, he's just another guy. I'd rather have the two draft picks.

[colbyjack]

Has Porcello's stuff dropped off? Last year he was throwing a mid-90s power sinker. I'd be surprised if he were even mentioned if he still throws that hard. I know his numbers weren't as good this season, but he's still incredibly young.

 

We've talked about this before, but I'm guessing Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner would be among the pitchers/prospects being discussed.

[RockCoCougars]

Porcello throws low 90's, and is basically a one pitch sinkerballer who doesn't strike anyone out. Granted he is young- maybe he will develop an out pitch down the road and develop into a #2 type pitcher. I'm not willing to give up Prince to take that gamble.

[And That]

I'd take the A's and Nationals off the "eliminated" list. The A's have been vocal about wanting to add power to the middle of their lineup and Fielder could DH for them. If the Nationals lost Dunn, they could be looking for a big-time replacement. Not likely, but possible.

[JohnBriggs12]

Porcello throws low 90's, and is basically a one pitch sinkerballer who doesn't strike anyone out. Granted he is young- maybe he will develop an out pitch down the road and develop into a #2 type pitcher. I'm not willing to give up Prince to take that gamble.

I'd ask why is okay to ignore how many K's a hitter has as an out is an out but at the same time preferring strike outs to other outs from your pitcher? Ground ball guys get more double plays in general. That being said I'm not completely sold on Porcello because ground ball rate isn't all that high either though he's still awfully young..

[And That]

I'd ask why is okay to ignore how many K's a hitter has as an out is an out but at the same time preferring strike outs to other outs from your pitcher?

I don't think anyone ignores K's from a hitter. Here's a good explanation of why K's are less important to hitters than pitchers. Basically, it's easier to be a good hitter who racks up strikeouts than a good pitcher who doesn't get strikeouts.

[endaround]

I think you can't eliminate the Dodgers. Loney stinks as is about to get paid about $5m to do so and Manny is gone leaving a hole and lots of money. Now the divorce complicates things but Fielder makes sense for them.

 

I still think if the Brewers really want to compete next season, you hang on to Fielder and take the picks, trade McGehee whose trade value should be higher anyway and have Gamel fill in at 3B for a year which also give you a year to evaluate Lawrie at 3B.

[thebruce44]

JohnBriggs12[/b]]

RockCoCougars[/b]]Porcello throws low 90's, and is basically a one pitch sinkerballer who doesn't strike anyone out. Granted he is young- maybe he will develop an out pitch down the road and develop into a #2 type pitcher. I'm not willing to give up Prince to take that gamble.

I'd ask why is okay to ignore how many K's a hitter has as an out is an out but at the same time preferring strike outs to other outs from your pitcher? Ground ball guys get more double plays in general. That being said I'm not completely sold on Porcello because ground ball rate isn't all that high either though he's still awfully young..

 

As AndThat said, there is a strong correlation between pitchers performance and their strikeout totals while there is a very weak correlation between a batters performance and their srikout totals.

 

The resons for this are debatable, but the results really aren't.

[nate82]

I think you can't eliminate the Dodgers. Loney stinks as is about to get paid about $5m to do so and Manny is gone leaving a hole and lots of money. Now the divorce complicates things but Fielder makes sense for them.

Loney doesn't stink. He was 1 point below average with a 99 OPS+ this season. I wouldn't call that a bad $5m investment for a player that is basically giving you about league average production. I wouldn't be surprised to see Loney have a break out year if he played anywhere but in the NL West.

[RockCoCougars]

Porcello throws low 90's, and is basically a one pitch sinkerballer who doesn't strike anyone out. Granted he is young- maybe he will develop an out pitch down the road and develop into a #2 type pitcher. I'm not willing to give up Prince to take that gamble.

I'd ask why is okay to ignore how many K's a hitter has as an out is an out but at the same time preferring strike outs to other outs from your pitcher? Ground ball guys get more double plays in general. That being said I'm not completely sold on Porcello because ground ball rate isn't all that high either though he's still awfully young..

'Pitching to contact' may be a good thing if you have pinpoint control and pitch for a team with a solid defense in a pitcher's park. That doesn't apply here. It follows that a strikeout pitcher would be more effective for this team. I would guess that most staff aces strike out somewhere in the minimum of 7 strikeouts per 9 innings. Porcello was under 5 this year, I believe.

 

Personally, I'm more old school and take the contrary viewpoint that strikeouts for a hitter are 'worse' than a regular out. I've always argued against the 3TO. If you make and out and don't put the ball in play, nothing good can result. Hence my dislike of guys like Jose K. and Cammy.

[kramnoj]

If you make and out and don't put the ball in play, nothing good can result.

 

A K is better than a DP.

 

Strikeouts for hitters in moderation aren't significantly worse than an out on contact. Hitters who strike out at a very high rate, however, will struggle to be productive hitters.

[endaround]

I think you can't eliminate the Dodgers. Loney stinks as is about to get paid about $5m to do so and Manny is gone leaving a hole and lots of money. Now the divorce complicates things but Fielder makes sense for them.

Loney doesn't stink. He was 1 point below average with a 99 OPS+ this season. I wouldn't call that a bad $5m investment for a player that is basically giving you about league average production. I wouldn't be surprised to see Loney have a break out year if he played anywhere but in the NL West.

He's a below average hitter at the greatest offensive position. His WAR for his last 3 years: 0.7, 1.6, 1.2. That's bad