BA Top Prospect season-League-by-League -- Latest: Gamel #12 in Pacific Coast League

[clancyphile]

Well, when we drafted Heckathorn wasn't the consensus that he was destined to be a bullpen guy with the upside of being a closer? I was talking to a friend who scouts the AFL, and while I am paraphrasing, he liked that he was a big bodied guy who throws on a downward plane. The problem is (as some of us found out when he was in Appleton) is that he throws to many "flat" strikes. Honestly, if a #3 SP is the ceiling some of these prospects guru's give him I am pretty ok with that, considering we hopefully will have that #4-5 pitching spot coming from in-house. While I may not have posted it on here, I believe that the most over paid and undervalued move for an organization is buying 2nd tier FA starting pitching.

 

While looking at his numbers in 2010, and I can't seem to find data on GO/AO rates, his decline in K/9 and slight decline in BB/9 is promising, while it is a sample sample of 40IP or so. When I saw him pitch the first game of a double header at Space Coast, he moved at a quick pace with a lot of confidence commanding both sides of the plate. If he stays healthy, and is that "gritty innings eater" Melvin loves, I think he is in the bullpen by next August, provided he keeps the ball in the yard in Huntsville.

Why not keep him as a starter, and see if he can hit that #3 starter ceiling? If so, then isn't moving him to the bullpen a waste?

I remember when Tim Dillard was racking up CGs, and the Brewers began a bullpen-rotation-bullpen "is he, or isn't he" approach. Dillard ended up a AAAA pitcher, when he might have helped fill a hole in the rotation had the Brewers not messed with what was looking like a solid starter.

 

[nate82]

I remember when Tim Dillard was racking up CGs, and the Brewers began a bullpen-rotation-bullpen "is he, or isn't he" approach. Dillard ended up a AAAA pitcher, when he might have helped fill a hole in the rotation had the Brewers not messed with what was looking like a solid starter.

 

Dillard is not a starter. There is more to pitching than CG's especially in the minors. Dillard's stuff is basically that of a bullpen guy or an emergency starter ie you don't have anyone else on your roster who can go more than 3 innings.

[JohnBriggs12]

What does Komatsu's height have to do with anything? There's some pretty good CF in the NL around his size. Has the BA staff ever heard of 5'9" Shane Victorino, 5'10" Andrew McCutcheon, 5'10" Cody Ross, or 5'11" Micheal Bourne?

 

Seems to me his height makes his strike zone smaller which is an asset for a guy that profiles as a leadoff hitter.

[monkeyman343434]

and there's no way Victorino is 5'10... he's lucky if he's 5'8

[Tedaldtada]

Lawrie checks in at #5 on the SL list.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610759.html

 

Lots of Cubs on there too. There have been a lot of Cubs on all of the corresponding lists.

[colbyjack]

The Southern League is up today. Brett Lawrie checks in at #5:

 

http://www.baseballameric...spects/2010/2610759.html

 

I would have to look back to see who was on the team, but it's a little surprising that no Brewers farmhand made the list 5 years ago. Must have been the years between Fielder/Hart/Hardy, etc. and Braun/Gallardo.

 

Here's Lawrie's profile:

 

After debuting in the SL as a 19-year-old last August, Lawrie spent all of 2010 in Huntsville. He didn't disappoint, leading the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16), total bases (250) and comparisons to Dan Uggla (countless).

 

Like Uggla, Lawrie is a strong, aggressive hitter with a big swing. He has a quick bat that stays in the hitting zone for a long time, and balls carry well off his bat. While he's prone to chasing pitches out of the zone, he also has shown the ability to make adjustments during at-bats and series. He stole 30 bases this year, but he also was caught 13 times and his speed is only average.

 

Lawrie's offense is well ahead of his defense at this point. He made 25 errors this year and still needs to improve his hands and footwork around second base. Many scouts believe he'll land on an outfield corner, where he'd have average range and arm strength.

 

Hopefully the chat will offer some notes on players not listed, such as Mark Rogers. I know Rogers has the injury history, but there were still reports of him throwing 101 mph. At what point does prospect status balance between that history and his current potential?

 

I got my print issue of BA the other day, and can tell you that one Brewers farmhand is listed on the PCL top 20 list.

[sveumrules]

Ackley over Lawrie is a total joke.

 

All Ackley has over Lawrie is walk rate and presumably defense. Plus Ackley's walk rate is going to decline as he moves up and teams realize the power isn't there, while Lawrie's will likely increase as he is two years younger and already has more power than Ackley can ever dream of developing.

[Tedaldtada]

BA has been terrible lately, to me at least. They seem conceded and, as we have seen, make quite a few due diligence errors. I think Sickel's might be the best of the 'prospectors', (except for ColbyJack of course).

[TooLiveBrew]

I got my print issue of BA the other day, and can tell you that one Brewers farmhand is listed on the PCL top 20 list.

 

Jeffress or Gamel... probably Jeffress

[trwi7]

I got my print issue of BA the other day, and can tell you that one Brewers farmhand is listed on the PCL top 20 list.

 

Jeffress or Gamel... probably Jeffress

Jeffress didn't pitch in Nashville. Only two candidates for me. Braddock and Gamel. I'd guess Gamel just based on Braddock being a reliever.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Ackley over Lawrie is a total joke.

 

All Ackley has over Lawrie is walk rate and presumably defense. Plus Ackley's walk rate is going to decline as he moves up and teams realize the power isn't there, while Lawrie's will likely increase as he is two years younger and already has more power than Ackley can ever dream of developing.

You're projecting one guys walk rate to go down and the others to rise? That's sloppy at best, walk rate increases with age almost uniformly. Ackley's defense and Lawrie's power must be considered a wash, then Ackley gets the nod since Lawrie might not stay at 2B in the eyes of scouts. Lawrie might be better than Ackley - I have them in the same tier of prospect, so it's kind of a pointless exercise to get all jazzed up over one at 5 and the other at 4 or whatever. But calling it a "total joke" is a total joke - they are top 15 prospects in baseball.

[sveumrules]

Ackley is 2 years older and played college baseball in a very strong conference. He has "power potential" but currently is OBP>SLG. His advanced approach flies at AA, but if the power doesn't start to show up he's going to get challenged more and more in the zone. It's one thing to rack up BBs against guys who are still trying to command their stuff in AA, but I see him as someone who is going to need to have a very high BABIP and be a plus defender to have significant MLB value.

 

Lawrie is younger, grew up playing baseball in Canada and has already shown what kind of power he possesses. If he continues to hit with power he will see less and less pitches in the zone. I understand his defense knocks him down a bit and he is probably going to end up in a corner somewhere long term.

 

If you're asking me to pick between two comparable prospects who (currently, at least) play the same position I'll take the guy who is 2 years younger and has already shown plus power across two levels every time. It just seems to me that oftentimes BA rates prospects using these criteria in the order listed; draft position/organization/what they've actually done between the chalk and walls.

[colbyjack]

Ian Campbell handled the Southern League, and I'm not even sure who that is. It may be one of their "freelance" or guest writers that has a pretty good understanding of the SL (similar to Bill Mitchell with the AZL).

 

He only mentioned one Brewer farmhand in his chat, in reference to some players that just missed the list (I asked a question about Mark Rogers with no response):

 

Huntsville's Amaury Rivas, who shows a hard, sinking fastball but who needs to develop his secondary pitches and show better command.

 

Remember last year his changeup was named the best in the FSL. Both Heckthorn and now Rivas' has been mentioned as having questionable secondary pitches. I understand that coaches and scouts may have different opinions on a pitchers/players stuff/abilities, but that still remains to be somewhat inconsistent reporting.

 

I've questioned BA's lists enough this year, and I do value the work they do, so I'll leave it at that. That said, I'd still like to know where Rogers fit in. I don't care about his injury history, command or anything else, how many other pitchers in all of the minors can throw 93-98 consistently with the ability to reach/surpass triple digits?

[dadofandrew]

I can't believe Zach was in the PCL long enough, as he was up in May.

 

I'd have had Lawrie #3, behind Minor and Stanton.

[TooLiveBrew]

Jeffress didn't pitch in Nashville. Only two candidates for me. Braddock and Gamel. I'd guess Gamel just based on Braddock being a reliever.

 

Oh, I thought cj's print issue was looking forward to the '11 season.

[And That]

Gamel #12 in the PCL.

[trwi7]

Until Scheppers starts full time, he wouldn't even be in the top 20 for me. The only place Castro's bat has been impressive is in the Cal League. Maybe you could rank him ahead of Gamel because of positional value, but that's it. I'll take Gamel over Wallace as well.

[colbyjack]

I got the latest print issue of BA yesterday, and their draft report cards are featured.

 

Cody Hawn was listed as the best pure hitter, Hunter Morris the best power hitter, Kevin Berard, Kenny Allison and Johnny Dishon the fastest runners and Yadiel Rivera the best defensive player. Allison and Berard were again mentioned among the best athletes.

 

Tyler Thornburg (93-95/98), Jimmy Nelson (92-93/96) and Matt Miller (91-95/97) all noted for their fastballs. Nelson and Brian Garman mentioned for their sliders (Garman's reaches the mid-80s).

 

Allison was mentioned again as the best late-round pick, drawing comparisons to Lorenzo Cain. Garman was another mentioned in this category for pitching 89-91 with his power slider. Allison is a player that was somewhat of an unknown on draft day, as I had a difficult time digging up information on the guy, but apparently is a sleeper prospect in the system. Garman could move fast as a lefty reliever.

[Mass Haas]

Kevin Berard, Kenny Allison and Johnny Dishon the fastest runners; Allison and Berard were again mentioned among the best athletes.

 

Still just 18 years old (19 in December), the 22nd round Berard only saw the field three times in Maryvale (2B twice, catcher once, DH seven times).

 

Listed as a catcher on draft day, among the fastest runners? Must be those 18-year-old legs...

[CheezWizHed]

Tyler Thornburg (93-95/98), Jimmy Nelson (92-93/96) and Matt Miller (91-95/97) all noted for their fastballs. Nelson and Brian Garman mentioned for their sliders (Garman's reaches the mid-80s).

 

Garman was another mentioned in this category for pitching 89-91 with his power slider.

 

Sweet! Any idea over what span those numbers are taken from? One game? I knew Nelson started out slow(er) and picked up some steam towards the end of the season. But I'd be pretty happy with a sinker style pitcher throwing at those velocities.