BA Top Prospect season-League-by-League -- Latest: Gamel #12 in Pacific Coast League

[colbyjack]

I know battlekow posted that Tyler Roberts was the #4 prospect in the Arizona League the other day, but since there are a lot of lists coming out, I thought it would be nice to have them all in one place. This thread could morph into the team-by-team prospects as those lists will follow the league-by-league ones within a matter of weeks.

 

4. Tyler Roberts, c, Brewers

Roberts had a decent 2009 pro debut in the AZL after Milwaukee drafted him in the 10th round from a rural Georgia high school. He returned to Arizona in 2010, helped the Brewers win the league title and projects as a solid regular in the big leagues.

 

Nicknamed "Country," Roberts ranked second in the league with 17 doubles and sixth with six homers. Brewers manager Tony Diggs lauded him for having no fear at the plate, and also for his makeup. He worked hard this year to keep his weight under control and to improve his conditioning.

 

His offense is ahead of his defense, though he has made significant refinements working with Brewers minor league catching instructor Charlie Greene. Roberts was very raw in 2009, having learned most of what he knew about catching from watching Braves games on television. His setup behind the plate is now good, and his arm is average and could improve with better footwork.

 

And a question fielded by Bill Mitchell in the AZL chat:

 

Quincy (Virginia): Any thoughts on Brooks Hall? Is his stuff any good? I know he gave up a lot of hits, but his bb and k rate seemed solid.

 

Bill Mitchell: Hall was drafted by the Brewers in the fourth round and signed late in the summer for an overslot bonus, so he didn't make his official pro debut until this year. He's got a tall, projectable body and a good fastball/slider combo but needs to work on his location.

 

Five years ago Lorenzo Cain was the league's #8 prospect after taking home MVP hardware. The late Nick Adenhart is probably the only other name of mention on that list.

 

Here is the schedule for the lists. The Pioneer League is up on Monday, Midwest League up next Friday:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/

 

Any guesses for those two? You would think the Helena pitching staff (Nelson, Thornburg, Miller) could be represented well. The T-Rats could also have a nice presence on the MWL list (Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Gennett, Ke. Davis).

 

By the way, Jesse Biddle, a prep lefty whom many had linked to the Brewers prior to the draft, was named the #7 prospect in the Gulf Coast League:

 

Biddle grew up just outside of Philadelphia, and his hometown team made him a first-round pick and handed him a $1.16 million bonus in June. He helped pitch the Phillies to the Northern Division title but was promoted before they won the GCL playoffs.

 

A physical lefthander, Biddle has a strong 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame and a 90-94 mph fastball. He has good command and mound presence for a high school pitcher. He also throws a curveball and changeup that need more consistency. In the spring, scouts saw him throw a slider that they preferred to his curveball and thought had the potential to become a plus pitch.

[battlekow]

The Pioneer League rankings are up. Matt Miller comes in at #9:

Miller pitched his way out of Michigan's rotation this spring, but he adapted well to pro ball, leading the Pioneer League in wins (seven) and ranking second in opponent average (.244). Helena captured the PL championship, with Miller picking up two of the Brewers' four posteason victories, including the clincher against Ogden.

A 6-foot-6, 220-pound workhorse, Miller logged 146 innings between college and pro ball, including the playoffs. His fastball sits at 92-93 mph and touches 95, and he deftly mixes in a slider and changeup that both improved over the course of the season, in part because he's a sponge for instruction. If he continues along his current path, he could develop into a mid-rotation starter with a plus fastball and slider and an average changeup.

Jimmy Nelson is #14:

Drafted 64th overall in June, Nelson became the Brewers' top signee when first-rounder Dylan Covey was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes and opted to attend San Diego. Nelson logged 110 innings while working exclusively as a starter for the first time this spring as an Alabama junior, so Milwaukee eased him into pro ball as a reliever.

After years of rearing back and firing fastballs at 95 mph yielded mixed results, Nelson has learned the virtues of throttling back to 90-92 and locating the ball with sink. His fastball plays up to plus because of heavy, boring action in on righthanders. He falls in love with his mid-80s slider and uses it to good effect, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for Helena.

Nelson doesn't show much of a changeup. He also has an awkward delivery, in which he has some effort and lands on a stiff front leg, and he'll have to smooth out those rough edges if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen.

You might be surprised at the absence of Cody Hawn and Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg just missed having enough innings to qualify for the list, and Hawn was a college first baseman, so he'd probably have had to hit like 2001 Barry Bonds to really make some noise.

P.S. Check out the lists from five and ten years ago for a trip.

[battlekow]

I asked in the chat where Thornburg would have ranked if he'd qualified:

Matthew Eddy: A Brewers third-rounder this year from Charleston Southern, RHP Tyler Thornburg had few peers in the league in terms of raw stuff. He missed qualifying for this list by a mere 1 2/3 innings. The 21-year-old produced sparkling results--1.93 ERA, 14.7 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.11 WHIP--as he touched 97 mph and showed a hammer curveball. Though he's just 5-foot-11, Thornburg has the athleticism and quick arm to continue starting. As to the PL ranking, I could see Thornburg as high as No. 3, ahead of Tillman, or as low as No. 6, ahead of Lemmerman. But I think I'd lean toward the higher ranking.

EDIT: Wow, a Seth Lintz question:

Jon (Peoria): What do you think are the odds that either Juan Duran or Seth Lintz reach their ceilings?

Matthew Eddy: Both are risky plays. A Brewers second-rounder in '08 out of a Tennessee high school, Lintz just doesn't throw strikes and draws criticism for his coachability. He ran up a 10.07 ERA and 5.7 walks per nine for Helena this year--though that walk rate is actually an improvement from his AZL mark of 8.5 a year ago.

More:

Robert (Secaucus, NJ): Did either Cody Hawn or Austin Ross (the Brewers' 6th & 8th round picks, respectively) get any Top 20 consideration? Both were impressive statistically.

Matthew Eddy: A University of Tennessee product, 1B Cody Hawn received serious consideration for the Top 20. He has power to all fields and batted .308/.407/.542 with 13 homers and a league-leading 61 RBIs for Helena. In the deciding Game Three of the finals he homered twice and drove in eight runs. Hawn doesn't run at all and plays below-average defense at first base, though he does have a discerning eye that will help bring his solid-average power to the fore. He'll probably strike out too much to project as more than a .260 type hitter. As to former Louisiana State RHP Austin Ross, he was a lesser candidate for the 20, though he certainly had a loud year. He commands a fringy fastball and slider and has a great idea how to pitch, but most saw him as an emergency big league arm at best.

[Mass Haas]

The T-Rats could also have a nice presence on the MWL list (Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Gennett, Ke. Davis).

Not so much -- it's tough in a 16-team league. Odorizzi the only Rattler, at # 8 among the top 20.

[ListachRides]

In the MWL chat Callis said Gennett would've been in the 20-25 range which is pretty impressive given how stacked the league was. The bad news is that he also said he didn't think Kentrail's glove would play in center but didn't think his bat was enough for left, and said the scouts he talked to were unimpressed with Heckathorn and didn't like his off-speed pitches.

 

It's interesting that they liked Miller ahead of Nelson on the Pioneer League list.

[battlekow]

Not so much -- it's tough in a 16-team league. Odorizzi the only Rattler, at # 8 among the top 20.

Just to put the depth into perspective, Callis said it might have been the best MWL group of prospects since 2000 and that he'd take the top 5-8 MWL players over the top SAL guy. The scouting report on Odorizzi:

The Brewers have struggled to develop pitchers, and premium 2009 draft picks Eric Arnett and Kyle Heckathorn underwhelmed MWL observers with their work in Wisconsin's rotation. But the Rattlers did have a keeper in Odorizzi, who led the league in strikeouts per nine innings (10.1) and threw the first eight innings of a no-hitter in his second-to-last start. Two scouts called him a lesser version of Zack Greinke.

Odorizzi's fastball ranges from 89-95 mph with sinking and boring action, and he maintains his velocity deep into games. He's still settling on a breaking ball and scouts prefer his curveball, which has potential as a plus pitch, to his slider, which is more of a cutter. He has some feel for a changeup, though he's still looking for consistent arm speed when he throws it.

A former all-league wide receiver at his Illinois high school, Odorizzi is athletic and has an easy, repeatable delivery. It allows him to throw strikes and get his pitches on hitters quicker than they expect. He also draws praise for his mound presence.

From the chat:

Jonathan (Brewtown): Did Rattlers Scooter Gennett and Kentrail Davis impress you this season?

Jim Callis: Gennett more than Davis. Gennett was in the 21-25 range, a guy I hated to leave off. He's a scrappy offensive second baseman, kind of a poor man's Nick Franklin without any pretense of being able to play shortstop. Davis hit well, but only after not playing well in the FSL, and I think he's a LF. Not sure if he has enough bat to make him a solid regular there.

Jim (South Bend): Was Kyle Heckathorn considered in this list?

Jim Callis: Scouts were underwhelmed by him. Some velo but also some effort, not much in the way of secondary pitches. He wasn't as much of a disaster as Eric Arnett was, but scouts weren't in love with Heckathorn at all.

Ha. Okay, we get it: Heckathorn isn't as good as his numbers might lead you to believe, but "wasn't as much of a disaster as Eric Arnett" is silly hyperbole. Come on now, Jim.

[ramssuperbowl99]

battlekow wrote:

Ha. Okay, we get it: Heckathorn isn't as good as his numbers might lead you to believe, but "wasn't as much of a disaster as Eric Arnett" is silly hyperbole. Come on now, Jim.

Good work battlekow challenging Jim Callis on his twitter (www.twitter.com/jimcallisba). Callis responded with "understatement, not hyperbole". Not sure he used those words correctly, as saying that Heckathorn not being a disaster like Arnett is an understatement means that Heckathorn was actually worse than he implied in the first place.

[colbyjack]

That's a very curious assessment by Callis, since Baseball America also had Heckathorn's changeup ranked as the league's best according to their poll of the league managers. There is an obvious inconsistency there, and you have to wonder if Callis is speaking of "scouts" or the 1 scout that he polled that saw Heckathorn on his worst day.

 

As for Davis, even coming out of college when the Brewers drafted him everyone knew he was an offense-first type of player, a la Shannon Stewart, with the ability to get on base, score and drive in runs and steal a few bases along the way. The comparisons to Kirby Puckett had more to do with his body type than his ability to play CF, so I don't really understand why that profile now seems to be held against him when it once was somewhat looked as a positive. Basically, how can it be looked as a surprise and/or a negative if it was already known? That skill set led to him being considered a legitimate first-rounder and one of the best overall hitters last year -- it didn't hinge on his ability/inability to play CF.

 

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: If Odorizzi, or any of these players, were Red Sox farmhands Callis and others would be stumbling over themselves trying to think of good things to say about them (hello Nick Hagadone). I'm not overly optimistic, but confident that this group is going to bear some dang good fruit some day without the prospect accolades.

[monkeyman343434]

That's a very curious assessment by Callis, since Baseball America also had Heckathorn's changeup ranked as the league's best according to their poll of the league managers. There is an obvious inconsistency there, and you have to wonder if Callis is speaking of "scouts" or the 1 scout that he polled that saw Heckathorn on his worst day.

 

As for Davis, even coming out of college when the Brewers drafted him everyone knew he was an offense-first type of player, a la Shannon Stewart, with the ability to get on base, score and drive in runs and steal a few bases along the way. The comparisons to Kirby Puckett had more to do with his body type than his ability to play CF, so I don't really understand why that profile now seems to be held against him when it once was somewhat looked as a positive. Basically, how can it be looked as a surprise and/or a negative if it was already known? That skill set led to him being considered a legitimate first-rounder and one of the best overall hitters last year -- it didn't hinge on his ability/inability to play CF.

 

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: If Odorizzi, or any of these players, were Red Sox farmhands Callis and others would be stumbling over themselves trying to think of good things to say about them (hello Nick Hagadone). I'm not overly optimistic, but confident that this group is going to bear some dang good fruit some day without the prospect accolades.

Kind of like Gallardo, when everyone was saying how much better Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes were?

 

 

[Never Outhustled]

As for Davis, even coming out of college when the Brewers drafted him everyone knew he was an offense-first type of player, a la Shannon Stewart, with the ability to get on base, score and drive in runs and steal a few bases along the way. The comparisons to Kirby Puckett had more to do with his body type than his ability to play CF, so I don't really understand why that profile now seems to be held against him when it once was somewhat looked as a positive. Basically, how can it be looked as a surprise and/or a negative if it was already known? That skill set led to him being considered a legitimate first-rounder and one of the best overall hitters last year -- it didn't hinge on his ability/inability to play CF.

I agree that Kentrail not making BA top 20 is extremely odd. BA loved Kentrail in college, then he puts up a mid-900 OPS in the MWL during what could have been his college junior season. He also shows a much better arm than BA reported for him, and is now a potentially a plus defensive RF. All this leads to BA suddenly thinking he's a bum? Is BA even aware that Kentrail played most of the season on 2 bad hamstrings? Did they do any homework here? BA gets an error on this one.

[colbyjack]

From the chat on Heckathorn as quoted above:

 

Some velo but also some effort, not much in the way of secondary pitches.

 

BA's midseason tools reports:

 

Best Changeup: Kyle Heckathorn, Wisconsin

 

There is some serious inconsistency here that makes me question the validity of either report.

[battlekow]

From the chat on Heckathorn as quoted above:

 

Some velo but also some effort, not much in the way of secondary pitches.

 

BA's midseason tools reports:

 

Best Changeup: Kyle Heckathorn, Wisconsin

 

There is some serious inconsistency here that makes me question the validity of either report.

I asked Callis, and he said: "Scouts didn't like it nearly as much as mgrs did."

[ramssuperbowl99]

From the chat on Heckathorn as quoted above:

 

Some velo but also some effort, not much in the way of secondary pitches.

 

BA's midseason tools reports:

 

Best Changeup: Kyle Heckathorn, Wisconsin

 

There is some serious inconsistency here that makes me question the validity of either report.

I asked Callis, and he said: "Scouts didn't like it nearly as much as mgrs did."

I asked Kevin Goldstein and he said, "Possible that he becomes a #3, not realistic, and I saw his best start."

Not sure what to make of Heckathorn...maybe a back-of-the-rotation type guy?

 

[BKsToolbox]

Well, when we drafted Heckathorn wasn't the consensus that he was destined to be a bullpen guy with the upside of being a closer? I was talking to a friend who scouts the AFL, and while I am paraphrasing, he liked that he was a big bodied guy who throws on a downward plane. The problem is (as some of us found out when he was in Appleton) is that he throws to many "flat" strikes. Honestly, if a #3 SP is the ceiling some of these prospects guru's give him I am pretty ok with that, considering we hopefully will have that #4-5 pitching spot coming from in-house. While I may not have posted it on here, I believe that the most over paid and undervalued move for an organization is buying 2nd tier FA starting pitching.

 

While looking at his numbers in 2010, and I can't seem to find data on GO/AO rates, his decline in K/9 and slight decline in BB/9 is promising, while it is a sample sample of 40IP or so. When I saw him pitch the first game of a double header at Space Coast, he moved at a quick pace with a lot of confidence commanding both sides of the plate. If he stays healthy, and is that "gritty innings eater" Melvin loves, I think he is in the bullpen by next August, provided he keeps the ball in the yard in Huntsville.

[colbyjack]

Honestly, if a #3 SP is the ceiling some of these prospects guru's give him I am pretty ok with that, considering we hopefully will have that #4-5 pitching spot coming from in-house. While I may not have posted it on here, I believe that the most over paid and undervalued move for an organization is buying 2nd tier FA starting pitching.

 

Those are some really good points BKsToolbox. I was going to comment on ramssuperbowl's post about Goldstein labeling Heckathorn's upside as a #3 starter, and that's really not that bad for the reasons you stated. I'm not that upset that he didn't represent BA's top 20, just wanted to point out some inconsistencies with their reports (although I know that they always have had some inherent inconsistencies since their top tools feature is gathered by surveying the league coaches while their league-by-league top prospects is done by surveying coaches and scouts alike).

 

And as Mass mentioned, it was a deep league this year. I still think Davis deserved to be mentioned (and agree with X that BA gets an E on that one), and wouldn't be surprised to see him tear up the Southern League next year. I do think the Brewers need to challenge him.

[biedergb]

I agree with the big club bias: If Kentrail Davis or Scooter Gennett were Red Sox, Yankee, Braves farmhands, they would be ranked because of the attention those clubs get. Think of how many can't miss prospects the Yanks have had. The question is it a BA bias, scouts bias, or something else?

[pogokat]

When it comes to Yanks, red Sox, and Braves prospects, I think a lot of it is promotion and national exposure...It's hard to watch any of those teams on TV...or see them mentioned on Sportscenter without the broadcaster commenting on how awesome some prospect of theirs is...also, just the amount of people that follow those teams and talk about their prospects seems to cause people o view the players in a more positive light...

[colbyjack]

FWIW, I just came across my own notes on Heckathorn after watching him pitch for the T-Rats in mid-April:

 

Extra hitch in delivery -- elbow. Great size, arm, body. Short arms ball, creates deception. Possible stress on elbow. Has some Ryan Dempster to delivery/Brad Penny like build. Good to great change. Followed fastball location with excellent changeup location with exact same arm speed. Froze batter (James Jones -- Mariners) on FB/CH/FB all hitting the same spot dropping velo by 10 mph. Easy velo (89-94), maintained well deep into game.

 

I reminded myself that I didn't see much of a breaking pitch from Heckathorn, but I also reminded myself how impressed I was with his change. The starter/short reliever concern will likely cloud over him as he approaches the big-leagues given his delivery, but his body can more than sustain long innings.

[battlekow]

No Brewers made the FSL">http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610749.html]FSL Top 20.

EDIT: In response to a question from Toby, Jim Callis had this to say about Erik Komatsu's defense and Dan Meadows' prospect status: "Komatsu solid in CF, Meadows a finesse LH"

[CheezWizHed]

Komatsu solid in CF

 

Nice to hear about Little Pine. Suddenly we are flush with CFs that carry a decent stick (Cain, Schafer, Komatsu, Ke. Davis)

[battlekow]

From the chat:

Jonathan (Milwaukee): Did Cody Scarpetta just miss this list? Thanx

J.J. Cooper: Scarpetta was in the 25-30 range, but the difference between 25-30 on this list and 18 isn't that dramatic. Brackman (No. 20) has a significantly higher ceiling, but Scarpetta has a higher likelihood of reaching his, which is as a back end of the rotation starter. Actually though Wily Peralta from his same staff may have ranked ahead of him if we expanded the list.

[TooLiveBrew]

How would a guy have been ahead of someone else if you "expanded the list", even though he (Peralta) already meets your list's qualifications?

To qualify for consideration, a player must have spent at least one-third of the season in a league. Position players must have one plate appearance for every league game. Pitchers must pitch 1/3 inning for every league game, and relievers have to have made at least 20 appearances in full-season leagues and 10 in short-season ones.

[battlekow]

How would a guy have been ahead of someone else if you "expanded the list", even though he (Peralta) already meets your list's qualifications?

What I think he means is that if the list was long enough to include Scarpetta, it would also include Peralta, who would be ahead of Scarpetta, i.e. he/they like Peralta more than Scarpetta.

Elaborating on the subject, and others:

Kade Nelson (Chippewa Falls,Wi.): I can't believe Erik Komatsu or Cody Scarpetta could not crack the top 20...Were they close? ...Also,what can you tell me about Evan Anundsen? He looked so good in '09. I know he was hurt but how is he doing? Still a decent prospect? Thanks.

J.J. Cooper: Guys liked Komatsu, but there's a lot to like and not a whole lot to love. He's got a very solid swing and a good idea of what he's doing at the plate. But he projects as more of a backup outfielder in the big leagues than a starter as his speed, power and range in center is average. But mainly it's because he doesn't project as much thanks to his short size. As one scout put it "if he was 6-foot-3, he'd be a guy." If you want to have something to cheer you up, scouts and managers liked Wily Peralta, who was actually closer to making the Top 20. Peralta's fastball wasn't consistent, but he has a plus fastball at his best (up to 95-96 mph) and an average breaking ball. What he lacks right now is the consistency and feel that a pitcher needs (although that is something that can be developed). His results don't match up to his stuff yet.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ah, thanks bk. Definitely didn't understand his point.

[Tedaldtada]

Couple of posts from a Sickels AQA:

 

1. Brewers Prospect:

Can you talk a little bit about Wily Peralta? What have you heard?

 

peralta

He’s got very good stuff but his command slipped in Double-A….the ERA was still good but the peripherals went bad, poor K/IP ratio for a guy who throws pretty hard. He still got grounders though. although used as a starter, I think he might be better off in the bullpen in the long run.

 

2. Brett Lawrie

Have seen some talk about bad body language from various sources on Brett Lawrie.

 

Is he the next Milton Bradley? Of course not, but do you see his questionable makeup as a concern for development?

 

lawrie

the term from scouts i’ve heard about Lawrie is “red-ass”….aggressive, highly competitive, kind of a jerk but very intense and wanting to succeed. I’d be interested in what “bad body language” means…that could mean a lot of different stuff. Is he getting lazy or something? I’d have to check my sources about that.