Can Randy Wolf rebound in 2011?

[JJHardy7]

I hope I don't get beat up too bad for asking this, but Wolf has had a fairly solid 2nd half of the season. I'm not trying to debate his salary or years left on his contract, but earlier in the year it almost appeared he'd have a tough time being a #4 contending staff. His ERA is under 4 (I know it's not the best stat) since the all-star break and a huge difference is home runs allowed: 21 in the pre-all star break and only 6 after. I know that could be a small sample either way, but if Wolf can pitch like he has in the 2nd half in 2011 that gives me a little bit more confidence we can improve this staff next year. Obviously Wolf has a spot in the rotation no matter what next year, but if he can perform like this I feel better about at least one spot in the rotation for next year. Thoughts?

[dadofandrew]

His ERA is 3.88 for the season if you leave out that 12 run game where he ate innings because the bullpen was tired. That game still counts, but you can only lose it once. He's a solid SP, who has been less effective versus LH bats than usual. If he stays healthy, I feel very good about him for '11. He and George have a nice relationship too. It was painful watching Lucroy have to visit the mound a couple times every inning.

[Nottso]

To me, the "good second half" isn't the aberration, but the "poor first half" is. What Wolf has done over his last 10 or so starts is a lot closer to his career norms than what he did in his starts earlier in the year. I would think (hope) Wolf starts off next year right where he's leaving off this year.

[Sage]

I think once he got paired with Kottaras, he really got into a groove. George knows exactly what Randy wants to throw, and it usually works. Maybe he just needed to get adjusted to his new team, who knows. But I think he's a solid pitcher, and I'd bet he'll have a nice year next year (don't expect #'s like he put up with Dodgers, but I don't think anyone ever did expect that).

[molitor fan]

I'm very pleased to see Wolf's solid performances lately are getting recognized on this board after seeing an avalanche of venom spewed towards both Wolf and Melvin on the jsonline blog site this morning. The stupidity espoused on that site vexes me (especially since a guy stole my molitor fan tag and is one of the posters that befuddle me with their lack of logic), but I was still surprised that Wolf's great start last night was poo-poo'd as meaningless there.

 

I think Wolf is a more than competent 3rd starter and while his contract was a risk, I think Doug made the right call on this one.

[logan82]

My only problem with Wolf is he needs to work with Lucroy. I think they can iron things out given time. Lucroy got thrown to the wolves.

[crewcrazy]

It's easy to forget that Wolf's first month of the season was also pretty good -- in 5 April starts, he had a 3.34 ERA, struck out 22, and only walked 10. In the middle months, he just couldn't locate anything and was giving up a ton of walks and home runs as a result. Now that he's found his location again, he's gone back to being pretty dependable.

 

I still think the team needs a guy to slot in between Yo and Wolf, but I'm feeling a lot better about next year's rotation if he can keep pitching to that 3.75-4.00 ERA range I thought he was capable of heading into this year.

[RockCoCougars]

As one of his harshest critics here a few months back, I want to eat some crow and give Randy his props. For his past 8 or 9 starts, he is earning his money, it looks more and more like he will not be Suppan II.

 

I have to take a little credit for this myself though, because my 'Time for Wolf to Step it Up' post coincided with the beginning of this stretch. I'm sure Randy is an avid Brewerfan.net reader, and my words motivated him.

[Never Outhustled]

Wolf is 34 years old, and has had an ERA under 4.30 just once in the last 6 years. I doubt his numbers next year will be any better than there are right now. I would think he'll have a bout with command issues again next year, as it happens to all control pitchers with mediocre stuff. He's tollerable, but its a stretch to even expect league average.

[CheezWizHed]

He really needs to rebound in 2010, as Bogut might not 100% healthy to begin the season. I wonder if Bogut can pitch?

[JohnBriggs12]

Wolf is 34 years old, and has had an ERA under 4.30 just once in the last 6 years. I doubt his numbers next year will be any better than there are right now. I would think he'll have a bout with command issues again next year, as it happens to all control pitchers with mediocre stuff. He's tollerable, but its a stretch to even expect league average.

Check that again X ellence. His ERA for this year is now 4.24. Showing how you can manipulate numbers, you can reverse it and say, he hasn't had an ERA over 4.30 for 3 straight seasons and every year he's made 20 or more starts (8 times) since 2000, he's never had an ERA over 4.36.

 

He's pitched to the numbers on the back of his bubble gum card this season. He is what he is and that's a solid number 3 starter. Solid number 3's can pitch like number 2's for a while and number 4's for a while. He'll likely put up similar numbers next year. His 2009 was a bit of an aberration, but he's still a very useful guy.

 

Because I have MLB extra innings and don't live in Wisconsin, I get to see other teams telecasts of Brewer games. The Giants have by far the best in the business in Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper. Krukow, a former major league starter and Kuiper who watch the Giants staff all year, have tons of respect for Wolf and how he attacks hitters.

 

Wolf's contract isn't all that onerous. Heck Ted Lilly collected $13 million this year. Another year like this one, and Wolf will still have value in the trade market.

[Never Outhustled]

 

He is what he is and that's a solid number 3 starter.

The NL league average for starters this year is 4.10, so even with this hot streak Wolf isn't even average. Going forward, age will likely start to affect him. He'll be 35 before next season is over.

 

 

Wolf's contract isn't all that onerous. Heck Ted Lilly collected $13 million this year. Another year like this one, and Wolf will still have value in the trade market.

Wolf is .7 WAR this year, he's grossly over-paid. Lilly is over-paid this year, but has earned every dollar over the life of his FA deal with the Cubs, rare for a FA pitcher.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

The NL league average for starters this year is 4.10, so even with this hot streak Wolf isn't even average. Going forward, age will likely start to affect him. He'll be 35 before next season is over.

 

Might be wise to adjust for parks instead of using raw numbers. I think you'll find him to be pretty much the definition of a #3.

[homer]

How are replacement level pitchers determined? Wolf is .7 WAR right now.

[ramssuperbowl99]

How are replacement level pitchers determined? Wolf is .7 WAR right now.

The "replacement player" is defined as a player who is 80% as good as the MLB average.

Personally, I think Wolf is due to rebound slightly. His FIP from 2007 to 2009 hovered between 3.95 and 4.17, his xFIP from 4.17 to 4.36. He's older, so I guess the .8 jump in each could be due to a lack of skill, as his swinging strike % is down a fair bit, but I don't think a 2 WAR season is much to ask for. And I'd put a 2 WAR season right around the #3/#4 starter area. With Yovani firmly manning the #1 and Wolf/Narveson filling out the back end of the rotation (and lefty quota), the Brewers just need a quick infusion of a #2/#3 to have a respectable rotation next season.

[logan82]

The NL league average for starters this year is 4.10, so even with this hot streak Wolf isn't even average. Going forward, age will likely start to affect him. He'll be 35 before next season is over.

 

This year maybe but it has an average starter in the NL has typically been around 4.30 or higher. In 2009 the middle 32 starts for NL teams were a 4.24 ERA.

[Never Outhustled]

The NL league average for starters this year is 4.10, so even with this hot streak Wolf isn't even average. Going forward, age will likely start to affect him. He'll be 35 before next season is over.

 

Might be wise to adjust for parks instead of using raw numbers. I think you'll find him to be pretty much the definition of a #3.

Miller Park is about neutral in the adjustment, so it won't change anything.

[And That]

If Wolf starts the season finale and pitches 7 scoreless innings (which, given his run of good starts isn't out of the question), he can get his ERA to or below league average. Not too bad for a guy that had a terrible first half.

[CheezWizHed]

Maybe the title should be changed to say, "Can Wolf continue his success from the end of this season?" He has looked like a different pitcher lately.

 

Funny thing is that he ERA, BAA and WHIP are all very close to career norms for him. His K/9 is down and his BB/9 is up a bit from career averages, but it looks like those numbers are skewed a bit from this early career K rates.

 

But then again, his career has some really good and really bad seasons...

[gregmag]

BTW, he's now up to 1.7 WAR. Seems odd that he'd jump 1 WAR in a week, even though he has been pitching great. Instinctively the .7 seemed low to me; 1.7 seems about right.

 

For comparison, Gallardo has 2.6 WAR; Capuano has 0.4; Narveson has -0.3; Bush has -1.5; Davis also has -1.5.

[cwolf2012]

"Gallardo has 2.6 WAR"

 

Where are you getting that from? Fangraphs has Gallardo at 4.9 WAR for pitching, and Wolf at .7 still.

[trwi7]

BTW, he's now up to 1.7 WAR. Seems odd that he'd jump 1 WAR in a week, even though he has been pitching great. Instinctively the .7 seemed low to me; 1.7 seems about right.

 

For comparison, Gallardo has 2.6 WAR; Capuano has 0.4; Narveson has -0.3; Bush has -1.5; Davis also has -1.5.

 

Fangraphs has Wolf at 0.7 WAR, Narveson at 1.4 WAR, Capuano at 0.5 WAR (in 150 less innings) and Gallardo at 4.9 WAR.

[gregmag]

I'm looking at Baseball Reference. I'm not sure what accounts for the discrepancy. Does Fangraphs compound WAR for pitching, batting, and fielding? BR has Gallardo at 2.6 WAR for pitching, 1.2 for batting, and 0 for fielding. That makes up some of the discrepancy but not all of it. I'm not sophisticated enough in advanced metrics to know whether there are competing methods of calculating WAR that yield such widely divergent results. Anyway, that's where I got my numbers; sorry if it's an unreliable source. That certainly explains (debunks) the Wolf change; whatever he is, he hasn't more than doubled his production in a week.

[cwolf2012]

I think BR uses ERA or something other than FIP for WAR on pitchers.

[thebruce44]

gregmag1[/b]]I'm looking at Baseball Reference. I'm not sure what accounts for the discrepancy. Does Fangraphs compound WAR for pitching, batting, and fielding? BR has Gallardo at 2.6 WAR for pitching, 1.2 for batting, and 0 for fielding. That makes up some of the discrepancy but not all of it. I'm not sophisticated enough in advanced metrics to know whether there are competing methods of calculating WAR that yield such widely divergent results. Anyway, that's where I got my numbers; sorry if it's an unreliable source. That certainly explains (debunks) the Wolf change; whatever he is, he hasn't more than doubled his production in a week.

 

BR's WAR is crap, well some people think all WAR is crap, but BR's is especially bad for hitting and pitching. Its annoying that there are two sources now.