How does Thornburg project long-term?

[colbyjack]

I think Tyler Thornburg is arguably the most fascinating story among the Brewers minor league prospects this season. After last night's game, as noted in the link report, he finished the year (assuming he doesn't somehow manage to make another appearance) with a 2.33 ERA in 10 games (7 starts), 27 IP, 17 hits, 47 Ks and 15 BB. The Brewers were obviously careful with him, as he missed almost all of July, and went 2 weeks in between his last 2 outings. Listening to his recent games, he always started the game sharp, but started to lose his control when he approached his 3rd-5th innings of work, somewhere in the 40-60 pitch count range. When the Brewers drafted him, most scouting reports indicated that he could be a future short reliever and potential closer, but he has the repertoire (fastball/curveball/changeup) to start, although the effectiveness of his curve, and especially his change, seems to vary significantly from one appearance to another.

Now, he hasn't been a pitcher full-time until he began his professional career, being used as an outfielder as well at Charleston Southern. He also bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen there, never really posting numbers that would lead you to believe he could be dominant since he was pitching in a less-known conference (meaning we tend to expect Nintendo-like numbers from prospects of significance from non-powerhouse conferences). Similar to Matt Miller, and even Kyle Heckathorn from the year before, I don't think the Brewers drafted any of them with the intent on grooming them as relievers.

It should also be noted that he was handled somewhat aggressively in college, once allowing him to toss 158 pitches in a complete game win over Florida last spring. As some of the reports indicate below, he has some Lincecum to him, even if he isn't that good, but improved control and sustainability (158 pitch outing aside) are obviously key to his progress moving forward. On the flip side, he could soar much more quickly to the big-leagues if developed as a reliever. This quote from below really could say it all:

He wasn’t necessarily miscast in the role (as a starter) as he doubled as an outfielder, hitting .276-5-24, and scouts say his command will improve and he’ll sustain his velocity deeper into games once he is able to concentrate on pitching only.

Here are a batch of scouting reports on Thornburg.

Perfect Game, pre-draft:

SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Despite his undersized frame, Thornburg can generate some serious heat with a fastball that sits at 93-94 mph, and can reach 95-97. He utilized that pitch almost exclusively in some outings last summer in the Cape Cod League as Brewster’s primary closer, going 0-0, 2.60 with eight saves. He throws his fastball with a lot of effort, though, and there are questions if he’ll ever develop command with his exaggerated mechanics, or whether his arm or body will hold up in the long haul. Thornburg also has struggled to develop consistency with the rest of his arsenal, which includes a curveball and developing changeup. He gets good extension in his over-the-top delivery and actually evokes comparisons to San Francisco Giants righthander Tim Lincecum with the hitch in his mechanics, not to mention the velocity he can generate in his small build. Thornburg is also a significant two-way talent, and had expectations of being used in the field for Brewster, only to be disappointed when he got just two at-bats last summer. But it enabled him to concentrate his efforts on pitching, where his future lies. Thornburg has played in right field on a regular basis in three seasons at Charleston Southern, in addition to his role as a pitcher, and started all 53 games of the 2009 season at the position, while hitting in the 3-hole. He hit .292-12-49, and topped Charleston Southern in homers and RBIs. He made all 18 relief appearances by coming in directly from right field, without warming up in a conventional manner, and posted a 4-4, 3.73 record with a save. In 31 innings, he walked 24 and struck out 35. As both a freshman and junior for the Buccaneers, Thornburg was used as a starting pitcher, and played in the field only on the days he didn’t pitch. After going 2-5, 7.04 as a starter in 2008, it was quickly determined that he was better served by being used as a closer—both the purposes of his two-way role and his professional future. In his first true shot at a closing role, in the summer of 2008 in the Valley League, he was selected that league’s No. 2-ranked prospect after going 1-1, 1.48 with 10 saves (second in the league) in 18 appearances, while striking out 38 in 24 innings. More on the basis of need, he returned to a starting role this spring for Charleston Southern. Though his performance (5-2, 4.89 in 10 starts, with 26 walks and 64 strikeouts in his first 57 innings) hasn’t been overly impressive, nor his showing as an everyday right fielder (.256-7-18), Thornburg’s draft status hasn’t suffered as he continued to pump mid-90s fastballs.—ALLAN SIMPSON

UPDATE (5/15): Despite Thornburg’s heroic two-way efforts, Charleston Southern closed out the 2010 season with a 17-38 record overall, and 6-20 in the Big South Conference. Thornburg didn’t step up at the plate like he has in the past (.252-7-18, 47 SO), but was impressive throughout on the mound (5-4, 4.14, 78 IP/34 BB/88 SO), showing steady 92-93 mph velocity, peaking occasionally at 95. He solidified his standing as a solid third-fourth rounder, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if a team jumped up and took him in the second round.—AS

Baseball America, pre-draft:

Scouts and opposing coaches inevitably invoke Tim Lincecum when discussing Thornburg, which certainly is a compliment. It started last summer, when Thornburg closed for Brewster in the Cape Cod League. He struck out 18 in 17 innings and racked up eight saves, using a delivery similar to Lincecum's, and his size (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) is in the same ballpark, though he's thicker. That helped Thornburg hold up through the grind of being Charleston Southern's top pitcher as well as a middle-of-the-order hitter who often plays right field when he doesn't pitch. He made an early statement with a complete-game, 158-pitch victory against Florida, which won the Southeastern Conference regular-season crown. He also mixed in a loss at Presbyterian, the Big South's ninth-place team. A rough season with the bat and the impending draft prompted the Buccaneers to keep Thornburg's focus on the mound in the season's final month, and he ranked third in the Big South in strikeouts while leading the league with a .213 opponent average. He has top-five-rounds stuff with a low-90s fastball that has topped out at 95 mph. His fastball lacks life and can be pretty flat, which makes his power curveball his best pitch. Thornburg is still looking for a consistent third pitch to round out his repertoire. He's likely more of a middle reliever, a quick-armed set-up man in the Scot Shields mold who should be off the board by end of the fifth round.

Andy Seiler, pre-draft:

Tyler Thornburg is a hard-throwing collegiate right-handed starting pitcher from Charleston Southern University. Thornburg originally came to Charleston Southern from Riverwood High School in Atlanta, Georgia. He wasn’t highly-regarded coming out of high school, even in an area that’s a hotbed of talent, so he went undrafted and headed for Charleston Southern in the fall of 2007 as a two-way player. Once there, he played both in the outfield and pitched out of the starting rotation, having good success on the mound, but being prone to the big inning. He moved to the bullpen for his sophomore year, having better success there and continuing that success as a reliever on the Cape last summer. He returned to school this spring hoping to do well enough to get drafted in the top ten rounds, but he’s exceeded expectations in the starting rotation, while also playing right field during the first half of the year. After such a great year, scouts project him to be a possible number three starter or setup man, with most thinking the bullpen is the likely destination. His stuff is good enough for either spot. His fastball is a solid-average to above-average pitch that sits 91-94, touching 95, and he locates it quite well. It moves a little bit, but it can be hittable at times, so he needs to locate it down in the zone as a pro. His curveball is a potential plus pitch, and he gets most of his strikeouts with it. He doesn’t throw a changeup well, but he’ll need to learn one or perhaps a cutter as a pro starter. He should go in the area of the third to fifth round range, where he’ll be signable for the neighborhood of slot money.

Perfect Game, #73 Cape Cod League prospect (Allan Simpson) summer of '10:

Despite his undersized frame, Thornburg can generate some serious heat with a fastball that sits at 93-94 mph, and can reach 95-97. He utilized that pitch almost exclusively in some outings this summer as Brewster's primary closer, going 0-0, 2.60 with eight saves. He throws his fastball with a lot of effort, though, and there are questions if he'll ever develop command with his exaggerated mechanics, or whether his arm or body will hold up in the long haul. He also has struggled to develop consistency with the rest of his arsenal, which includes a curveball and developing changeup. Thornburg gets good extension in his over-the-top delivery and actually evokes comparisons to San Francisco Giants righthander Tim Lincecum with the hitch in his mechanics, not to mention the velocity he can generate in his small build. Thornburg is also a significant two-way talent, and had expectations of being used in the field this summer for Brewster, only to be disappointed when he got just two at-bats. But it enabled him to concentrate his efforts on pitching, where his future lies. Thornburg has played in right field on a regular basis in two seasons at Charleston Southern, in addition to his role as a pitcher, and started all 53 games of the 2009 season at the position, while hitting in the 3-hole. He hit .292-12-49, and topped Charleston Southern in homers and RBIs. He made all 18 relief appearances by coming in directly from right field, without warming up in a conventional manner, and posted a 4-4, 3.73 record with a save. In 31 innings, he walked 24 and struck out 35. As a freshman, Thornburg was used as a starting pitcher for the Buccaneers, and would play in the field only on the days he didn't pitch. But after going 2-5, 7.04 as a starter, it was quickly determined that he was better served by being used as a closer—both the purposes of his two-way role and his professional future. In his first true shot at a closing role, in the summer of 2008 in the Valley League, he was selected that league's No. 2-ranked prospect after going 1-1, 1.48 with 10 saves (second in the league) in 18 appearances, while striking out 38 in 24 innings.

Perfect Game, #77 Cape Cod League prospect (Greg Schimmel) summer of '10:

Thornburg was Brewster's hard-throwing closer who impressed some scouts with big velocity despite his small frame, but who looked like a one-pitch pitcher in some outings. If his body holds up and he can command his secondary pitches more consistently, he could be a very good pro, but those are two big question marks with him. Thornburg is undersized at 5-11, 176, and he throws with big-time effort. He gets good extension and has a hitch in his motion before he throws straight over the top. I hesitate to make this comparison, as his mechanics are not as exaggerated and his stuff is not as good, but Thornburg evokes a faint comparison to Tim Lincecum. But Thornburg's command is not as good, he doesn't throw as hard and his curveball doesn't break as much. Still, Thornburg's fastball sat in the 93-94 mph range, and his 77 mph curveball had very good overhand break. He also showed a decent changeup with some tailing action in on righthanded hitters.

Perfect Game, #2 Valley League prospect summer of '09:

Thornburg flashed his best arm strength of the summer at the league’s all-star game, touching 95 mph—yet his fastball command was inconsistent and it was one of the few times all season that he got hit around. With a fastball that was a more customary 91-94 mph during the balance of the summer, he went 1-1, 1.48 with 10 saves (second in the league) in 18 appearances. In 24 innings, he fanned 38 while allowing just 15 hits and 10 walks. Thornburg threw only his fastball and knee-buckling curve as a closer, but actually has a solid three-pitch mix and fanned 12 in his one start of the summer. He was used primarily as a starter as a freshman at Charleston Southern, but struggled in the role, going only 2-5, 7.04 with 26 walks and 55 strikeouts in 54 innings. He wasn’t necessarily miscast in the role as he doubled as an outfielder, hitting .276-5-24, and scouts say his command will improve and he’ll sustain his velocity deeper into games once he is able to concentrate on pitching only. Size may remain an issue, though, and his maximum-effort delivery may be best suited in a short role in the final analysis.

[Tedaldtada]

I think he will build up stamina now that he can focus on pitching, meaning I want him to start until he proves he cannot. I, at least, have the patience to wait for him to make it as a SP.

[filthyfrog]

Max effort deliveries are always the hardest to repeat consistently and maintain deep into games, but there's no question he should get a chance to be a starter. I expect him to get the piggyback treatment in Appleton next year, which will give us a chance to see him in both roles. It'll be interesting to see the starter vs. reliever splits.

[And That]

Like all high Brewers pitching draft picks, he will be developed as a starter and will learn a change-up come hell or high water.

 

His potential intrigues me, though the combination of a "flat" fastball and one (apparently) non-dominant breaking pitch is going to temper my enthusiasm. I think a funky delivery can be intimidating to hitter in a lower level like the Pioneer League, and with all the rest they've given him, he's probably hitting closer to 95 than 92, and that's usually enough to get out rookie ball hitters.

 

So, the biggest questions I want to see answered about him before he sniffs the Power 50's top 10 are: if he's developed as a starter, how does his velocity hold up and can he develop that third pitch?; and, however he's developed, will his odd mechanics allow him to both stay healthy and exhibit adequate control over a full season?

[CheezWizHed]

Next year should be really interesting for him. With the limited pitch counts, long breaks, etc... its hard to know if the Brewers sense a problem or just taking it easy after a heavy use/abuse college year (158 pitches in a game?).

 

Think they will skip him over Wisconsin to Brevard? Probably not...

[dadofandrew]

Like all sub 6 foot RHP's, it will be an upset if he makes it as a SP. Some do, but so few they are probably 5% of all RHP's.

[Never Outhustled]

Like all sub 6 foot RHP's, it will be an upset if he makes it as a SP. Some do, but so few they are probably 5% of all RHP's.

 

Whether he makes it as a starter will have nothing to do with his height, it will be determined by his change-up and fastball command. There is few short RHSP simply because there is few short pro RHP overall. Very few pitchers that size have plus velocity.

 

Its pretty amazing to me to read that Thornberg was moved to the mound from RF mid-inning without warm-ups 18 times. That can't be good for a pitchers command.

[colbyjack]

Whether he makes it as a starter will have nothing to do with his height, it will be determined by his change-up and fastball command. There is few short RHSP simply because there is few short pro RHP overall. Very few pitchers that size have plus velocity.

 

I agree with X's point 100%. Being a shorter RHP doesn't mean the odds are necessarily against him succeeding, just that he's in a smaller class of player. The only odds against him are the same ones that are against everyone else in that making it to and sustaining success at the big-league level is extremely difficult. And as the Manny Parras of the world have proven, that quite often goes far past one's physical talents.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, his success so far this year at Helena proves the 5'11", 185lb isn't intimidated by the pitchers selected before and after him in the draft. But its got to be a funny sight with him standing between 6'6", 245lb Jimmie Nelson and 6'6", 220lb Matt Miller. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif