best rookie pitching crop since..?

[thebruce44]

Patrick425[/b]]

I would guess he jumps up into the top 30. Jeffress we hopefully will see in the top 50. If they stay healthy they will move up quick as they become more well known in the upper levels.

If either of them make the list next year, I don't see how Rogers would be ahead of Jeffress. I would guess that Jeffress would be in the top 75 at best. I don't see how or why Rogers would crack the top 100. He had a decent year...nothing great.

 

If the Brewers had pitching prospects that were the equivilent to Fielder and Weeks before they got to the majors, I could possibly get more excited. Guys like Strasburg, Lincecum, Bumgarner, etc....but Jeffress and Rogers?...meh.

I think you are severely discounting the year that Mark had. He was already considered a top prospect because of his tools before his injury, which have returned. He had success at AA (in fact more success than a lot of the prospects in the 40-50 range). I really would be shocked if he doesn't even crack the top 100.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

Reggie Cleveland? All I remember from his time is his getting hammered by the Red Sox as the Brewers fell out of the race in 79.. He was not a Brewer product by the way.

 

We got him from Texas for Ed Farmer. Cleveland had some decent seasons for the Red Sox. He sucked as a Brewer though.

 

I think Barry Cort was our first Canadian, Reggie Cleveland was our second.

 

Reggie Cleveland had a nice beard though.

 

http://www.joesportsfan.com/jsfpics/cards/ReggieCleveland.jpg

 

Sort of like Roy Howell

 

http://cardboardgods.com/sitebuilder/images/Roy_Howell-322x456.jpg

[Patrick425]

These are Mark's stat's this year:

 

2010 Pitching Statistics
Club (League)	Class	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	BB/9	SO/9	WHIP	STK%	G/F
Nashville (PCL)	AAA	0	0	2.08	1	1	0	0	4.1	3	1	1	0	3	3	6.23	6.23	1.38	65%	1.50
Huntsville (SL)	AA	6	8	3.71	24	24	0	0	111.2	86	60	46	3	69	111	5.56	8.95	1.39	59%	2.33
Milwaukee (NL)	MAJ	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	9.00	0.00	56%	#INF
Major League Totals		0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	9.00	0.00	56%	#INF
Minor League Totals		6	8	3.65	25	25	0	0	116.0	89	61	47	3	72	114	5.59	8.84	1.39	59%	2.27

The only stat that stands out to me is the SO/9, but that's tempered by the BB/9. A 3.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at AA, certainly does not scream out "top prospect" to me. Again, he was ranked #44 at one time 4 years ago. He'll be 25 in January. I don't think these numbers are enough to put him back in the top 100. We'll find out.

[TooLiveBrew]

Opposing hitters only were able to muster a .209 AVG against Rogers this season. I think that's pretty impressive.

[thebruce44]

His FIP is also pretty good. At AA I am more concerned with his strikeout rates and stuff than ERA. Control often comes last but the tools and potential are off the charts. Plus his pitching will translate well to getting MLB hitters out as oposed to a guy like Hendrickson who will have great numbers that won't translate to the bigs. BA weighs this heavely when ranking their pitching prospects and I expect them to continue this trend with Rogers.

[Patrick425]

Well, I hope I'm wrong about him AND I hope he can stay healthy.

[Funketown]

I hadn't realized that Rogers' GB/FB ratio was so good this year in AA. His walks still do really concern me, and I'm thinking the best plan at this point is to give him some innings in the bigs at the end of the season and start him in AAA next year.

[Never Outhustled]

The only stat that stands out to me is the SO/9, but that's tempered by the BB/9.

Rogers has only allowed 3 homers this year in 117 innings. That stat jumps out and punches me in the face. When you combine that with his K rate, average against, and groundball ratio, it shows a pitcher that is almost unhittable.

[JonnyLungs]

This isn't some great revelation but the only way Jeffress and Rogers will make decent starters if they get their walk rates down. They'd both make fine relievers as is given their stuff. I'd use them as starters next year but if they don't make a decent amount of progress in the BB/9 department I'd look into making them relievers permanently.

[strawbossisevil]

I have no doubt that both Jeffress and Rogers should be appearing on BA's top 100 list. Both have elite fastballs and have put up solid numbers at AA. Arms like theirs don't grow on trees. Both have top of the rotation potential. If both of them meet that potential, you have to think that the future looks very bright for the Milwaukee pitching staff, especially if we add another plus arm when we trade Fielder this offseason.

[Tedaldtada]

People really, really need to read the Daily Link Reports more often. Rogers often was focusing on his change-up this year. In fact, there were many games where he was not allowed to throw his devastating curve ball. Mark easily just had one of the most exciting years in Brewer MiLB history. When he used his full arsenal, his command improved along with the results. He is a SP, no doubt.

[Patrick425]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]People really, really need to read the Daily Link Reports more often. Rogers often was focusing on his change-up this year. In fact, there were many games where he was not allowed to throw his devastating curve ball. Mark easily just had one of the most exciting years in Brewer MiLB history. When he used his full arsenal, his command improved along with the results. He is a SP, no doubt.

Perhaps there are some intangibles (limits on his curve ball) that I am not aware of that go beyond what his stats can tell this year.

 

However, I still find it hard to get overly excited about a 24 year old who missed two full years due to injuries. By the time he's allowed to go 200 innings he'll probably be 28 and in his arbitration years (This is the first year he's pitched over 100 innings). That's assuming he avoids additional injuries. If he can stay healthy for 2 or 3 straight years and shows better control, then maybe I'll start to get excited about him.

 

 

[Tedaldtada]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]People really, really need to read the Daily Link Reports more often. Rogers often was focusing on his change-up this year. In fact, there were many games where he was not allowed to throw his devastating curve ball. Mark easily just had one of the most exciting years in Brewer MiLB history. When he used his full arsenal, his command improved along with the results. He is a SP, no doubt.

Perhaps there are some intangibles (limits on his curve ball) that I am not aware of that go beyond what his stats can tell this year.

 

However, I still find it hard to get overly excited about a 24 year old who missed two full years due to injuries. By the time he's allowed to go 200 innings he'll probably be 28 and in his arbitration years (This is the first year he's pitched over 100 innings). That's assuming he avoids additional injuries. If he can stay healthy for 2 or 3 straight years and shows better control, then maybe I'll start to get excited about him.

 

I don't care how old someone is as long as the can touch 99-101 mph (as he did in his last milb start). He had the 4th best BAA in all of the minors. He gave up very few homers and extra base hits (pretty sure we determined that he gave up less than 20 XBH's all year).

 

The previous injuries are indeed worrisome, but he says he doesn't even think about the arm anymore. He says everything feels great.

 

People, it's very okay to get excited. Who gives a rip what Baseball America thinks. They are garbage anyways.

[Invader3K]

The fact is he's only 24. If Rogers was already 26-27, there would be much less to get excited about.

[GAME05]

his arm only got hurt when the Brewers changed his motion and had him stop throwing across his body. maybe now that he's back to doing that he can stay healthier even with a wrong motion. being in the majors at 24 despite missing a ton of time is an impressively quick rise to this level.

[thebruce44]

Patrick425[/b]]

Tedaldtada29[/b]]People really, really need to read the Daily Link Reports more often. Rogers often was focusing on his change-up this year. In fact, there were many games where he was not allowed to throw his devastating curve ball. Mark easily just had one of the most exciting years in Brewer MiLB history. When he used his full arsenal, his command improved along with the results. He is a SP, no doubt.

However, I still find it hard to get overly excited about a 24 year old who missed two full years due to injuries. By the time he's allowed to go 200 innings he'll probably be 28 and in his arbitration years (This is the first year he's pitched over 100 innings). That's assuming he avoids additional injuries. If he can stay healthy for 2 or 3 straight years and shows better control, then maybe I'll start to get excited about him.

 

It sucks he has missed time, but he threw 91 innings the year he was drafted, 98 his second year, and this year will probably hit 125-130. Next year he will hopefully get to 150ish, some of that in the majors without burning service time as a 25 year old. Then at 26 he is slated for around 185 innings in his first year of team control. After that if everything goes to plan he can go 200 innings for 5 years through age 32. This is Yo's 3rd year of MLB service time and it will be the first year he goes over 200 innings so this isn't all that unusual.

 

The guy is still young and can touch 100 mph with movement. He has a plus curveball and a developing change. I truly believe he will be a top 40-30 prospect this offseason according to BA. I am the eternal pessimist when it comes to pitching prospects, but with all of this info how can you not be excited?

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The guy is still young and can touch 100 mph with movement.

 

After seeing him throw with the Brewers, I have serious doubts that the radar readings of him touching 101 were accurate. I think he'll legitimately operate in the mid to upper 90s with movement, though, and that's obv. nothing to sneeze at.

[Tedaldtada]

TLB, fwiw, those readings were recorded by a teammate sitting behind home plate with a piece of team radar equipment.

[thebruce44]

The guy is still young and can touch 100 mph with movement.

 

After seeing him throw with the Brewers, I have serious doubts that the radar readings of him touching 101 were accurate. I think he'll legitimately operate in the mid to upper 90s with movement, though, and that's obv. nothing to sneeze at.

 

In his 9 big league throws he hit 98.3 on PitchFx. I don't think its out of the question he could touch 100+.

[TooLiveBrew]

TLB, fwiw, those readings were recorded by a teammate sitting behind home plate with a piece of team radar equipment.

Ah, I'd forgotten that. His avg. fastball velocity in the bigs so far is roughly 96 mph. Not sure if he's just been asked to take it easy on his arm or what, but there's a (relatively) big difference btw. 96 & 100. I hope I'm very wrong on my cynicism, and I don't want to give the impression in any way that I'm not completely excited about Rogers. I'd just expected to see, as a reliever, Rogers's best velocity.

[Never Outhustled]

his arm only got hurt when the Brewers changed his motion and had him stop throwing across his body. maybe now that he's back to doing that he can stay healthier even with a wrong motion. being in the majors at 24 despite missing a ton of time is an impressively quick rise to this level.

 

Actually, the injury occurred only after the Brewers backed off some of the mechanical changes Rogers was struggling with. He has taken to improved mechanics now, injury doesn't seem to be a major issue anymore.

 

I agree with you that where he's at now at his age is extremely impressive. He has the experience level of a 21-22 year old player. Rogers age should have an * by it because of the time he's missed. He has pitched just 281 innings in the minors. Yovanni Gallardo had 380 before he made his MLB debut as a 21 year old.

[And That]

FWIW, he was between 91-93 on the fastball out of the pen today. 100 may not be out of the question, but I also think it's something we'll rarely see as he's asked to sacrifice a little velocity to gain the control he'll need to succeed as a starter.

[trwi7]

Rogers just pitched another inning. This time he was in the 91-93 range. I wonder if that would be what's best for Rogers, ease up and throw in the 91-94 range to get better control which is what Brandon Morrow did this year.