Fielder- What Brewer would you give up to GET him?

[LouisEly]

Prince is not a fit for the Crew

 

Can you please explain why a LH impact bat on a team full of RH hitters is not a fit?

[Funketown]

To answer the question, not too much. Fielder is going to be getting somewhere around $15MM in arbitration next year, and he doesn't provide much more value than that. Of course, guys like Fielder that have superstar status do provide some value off the field, but it's probably not that much. I'd hope for a 50-75 SP prospect along with a couple of high ceiling throw-ins.

[twobrewers]

Man, everyone is pretty much ignoring the question.

 

I'd give any two players from the Power 50 outside of Lawrie, Rogers or Odorizzi. Everyone else in the system is still very much a "hit or miss" prospect. I'd take a year of Prince and two draft picks for hit or miss prospects.

 

If we are talking MLB players, I'd be willing to part with Hart, McGehee, or Weeks. (Weeks only because he is also for one year)

 

I'd guess one of Hart, McGehee or Weeks and a minor leaguer outside of Lawrie, Rogers or Odorizzi might work as well.

[logan82]

Prince is not a fit for the Crew

 

Can you please explain why a LH impact bat on a team full of RH hitters is not a fit?

We are not playoff contenders next year nor are we close.

 

I'd give any two players from the Power 50 outside of Lawrie, Rogers or Odorizzi. Everyone else in the system is still very much a "hit or miss" prospect. I'd take a year of Prince and two draft picks for hit or miss prospects.

 

If we are talking MLB players, I'd be willing to part with Hart, McGehee, or Weeks. (Weeks only because he is also for one year)

 

I'd guess one of Hart, McGehee or Weeks and a minor leaguer outside of Lawrie, Rogers or Odorizzi might work as well.

I think that would be a HUGE overpay for us. We are not playoff contenders next year nor are we close. Adding a guy like Fielder in 2011 makes zero sense for the Brewers unless we are giving up players who are gone after 2011. Even Weeks we would be much, much better off trading to address our rotation instead of bringing in another bat. We need to focus on players who will help us in 2012 and beyond. If they can help us ni 2011, great but they better be more than a one year wonder.

 

 

[mletto157]

Logan, do you see the talent on the Reds as vastly superior to that of the Brewers? I think with the right additions to the rotation, and a little luck the Brewers could contend for the division, and hence, the playoffs. Anything can happen if you have a moderately talented team; especially since our defense and pitching should both improve next season. I think that'll make a bigger difference than most realize.

[kilgore37]

If we can add 2 impact pitchers we are right back in the race. Cain starting in CF will be a big upgrade.

[logan82]

Logan, do you see the talent on the Reds as vastly superior to that of the Brewers? I think with the right additions to the rotation, and a little luck the Brewers could contend for the division, and hence, the playoffs. Anything can happen if you have a moderately talented team; especially since our defense and pitching should both improve next season. I think that'll make a bigger difference than most realize.

How does our defense improve more than marginally if we bring back all the same guys? Hart, Braun, McGehee and Fielder are all poor defenders with little hope of improving. I would be less surprised to see our defense decline with those 4 than improve. Escobar should improve and Lucroy/Kottaras is probably better than Zaun/Kottaras but catcher defense has minimal impact on balls in play and that is what our defense really sucks at.

 

Under the conditions set up in the lead we don't have Fielder on our team. Any player of value that we do have on our team would have to be traded to get pitching. If we give up anybody of value for Fielder, we don't get enough pitching to be competitive and Fielder is nowhere near the upgrade two good pitchers would be. Weeks, Hart or anybody else for Fielder is a wash or a minimal upgrade.

 

We don't have a moderately talented team. We have an above average offense and one of the worst rotations in baseball. Given a choice, I would only keep GAllardo and Wolf of the current rotation and maybe Capuano.

 

In reality, we need at least 2 good pitchers to get good enough to compete in our division. We don't need to get better than the Reds. We need to get better than the Reds, Cardinals, and Astros. The team as built right now is not a playoff team. They are about a 75-85 win team at each end of the luck spectrum. We could keep Fielder and sign a couple FA pitchers and go for it next year(Unfortunately I wouldn't be shocked if this happened, disappointed, not shocked. Attanasio strikes me as a guy who doesn't want to rebuild) or we could trade Fielder for a pitcher or 2 that would maybe help next year but help us by 2012 to supplement our top prospects who should be ready by then. Basically rolling the dice on a mid 80's win team for next year or going for a 90 win team in 2012.

 

Our rotation in 2012 is shaping up to be Gallardo, Wolf, Odorizzi, and maybe Rogers/Jeffress. That isn't to bad especially if we can supplement that with a good pitcher or 2 brought back in trade. Fielder vs Gamel/Lawrie is a much smaller difference than Parra/Narveson vs pitcher brought back in Fielder trade.

[mletto157]

Braun has been immensely bad this season on defense... I think in part because of our position in the division. As has been noted, he doesn't even appear to be running hard this season.

 

Fielder should be gone next season if we hope to get anything from him. I would like to see Hart take his place at 1B. Hart has played there before and could be a huge upgrade at 1B. His height makes him ideal for the position.

 

Gamel in RF could very easily be better than Hart has been.

 

McGehee is not a great 3B, but he might even be moved soon enough to make room for Lawrie, who could easily be better on D than him.

 

We know Cain is a good CF and should only improve. We know Escobar has the tools to be a great SS, and should also improve. Weeks has been improving his whole career.

 

Plus, with the pitching we'll have coming through the system and assuming we get at least one decent pitcher in the Fielder trade, we could have a passable rotation next year as well.

 

I guess I just don't see us as far from contending as you do. Maybe it's my fan colored glasses... but I definitely like to look on the positive side.

[logan82]

mletto157 wrote:

I guess I just don't see us as far from contending as you do. Maybe it's my fan colored glasses... but I definitely like to look on the positive side.

I don't think we are to far from contending if we get a good pitcher back for Fielder. I think we will be much better in 2012 than 2011 and that is the year we should shoot for while looking at trades.

 

If we keep Fielder I think we are much further from contending than if we trade him.

[thebruce44]

Prince is not a fit for the Crew

 

Can you please explain why a LH impact bat on a team full of RH hitters is not a fit?

You keep bringing this up. Yes, I get that its important to have a LH bat in the starting lineup. That doesn't mean that any LH bat or any elite LH bat is a fit for a team that needs several other pieces before being a contender and has payroll issues.

[jjkoestler]

I'll play along.

 

Hypothetical situation: The Brewers never drafted Prince and Overbay is still playing 1B.

 

2010 trade deadline assuming the Brewers are within 5 games of the division or wildcard: Gamel, Arnett/Heckathorn/Rivas, Gomez, and a lesser prospect (30-50 range in the Power 50 not named Richardson or Hawn)

 

2011 off season: McGehee, Arnett/Heckathorn/Rivas, and Gomez

[Never Outhustled]

That doesn't mean that any LH bat or any elite LH bat is a fit for a team that needs several other pieces before being a contender and has payroll issues.

 

 

 

Can you explain the payroll isues to me? The only payroll issue I see for next year is finding enough players to spend all the money the Brewers will have available to spend despite only having a few openings on the roster. Few teams will be able to outspend the Brewers this offseason, because $35 million worth of Melvin's mistakes finally come off the books.

[LouisEly]

Yes, I get that its important to have a LH bat in the starting lineup. That doesn't mean that any LH bat or any elite LH bat is a fit for a team that needs several other pieces before being a contender and has payroll issues.

It's important to have a couple of LH bats in the lineup, not just one. If they replace Fielder with Gamel you still have only one LH bat and it will not be as good as the LH bat that you traded in Fielder. They will be better off trading Hart and replacing Hart with Gamel so they have two LH bats in the lineup.

 

We are not playoff contenders next year nor are we close.

I think you underestimate the addition by subtraction of Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Estrada, Riske, and Hoffman, as well as the possibility of Rogers or Rivas making the jump from AA to fill one of the starting pitching spots.

[trwi7]

I think you underestimate the addition by subtraction of Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Estrada, Riske, and Hoffman, as well as the possibility of Rogers or Rivas making the jump from AA to fill one of the starting pitching spots.

 

I think you underestimate how we need another #1 or #2 pitcher as well as a #3 if we want to compete next year as well as replacing Fielder's bat all while improving the defense. That's not going to happen in one offseason.

[logan82]

LouisEly wrote:

I think you underestimate the addition by subtraction of Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Estrada, Riske, and Hoffman, as well as the possibility of Rogers or Rivas making the jump from AA to fill one of the starting pitching spots.

Hoffman I will give you but the rest of those guys didn't pitch enough to make much impact good or bad. Even if all those guys are healthy and pitched to mildly optimistic expectations we were still a low 80 win team.

 

 

[GAME05]

it's a difficult question to word, but i think i know what you mean. it's almost like it's 2008, you're the GM and Sabathia is available, and you have the current Brewers farm system.

 

i'd trade Gamel, Odorizzi and Braddock. Gamel can be dealt because we have 3B covered in the short-term. Odorizzi is doing great, but young in the system yet and we can try to find Version II with one of the two comp picks we get. Braddock might not add much value to another team being neither a starter or closer yet, but having Axford makes him expendable.

 

i have to disagree that Braddock is anywhere near enough to get someone the likes of Fielder. i'd much rather keep Fielder next year and take the picks if all we could get back was Braddock (no offense to Braddock or anything).

 

Option II if that first offer got turned down, would be Odorizzi, Rivas and Braddock.

[thebruce44]

That doesn't mean that any LH bat or any elite LH bat is a fit for a team that needs several other pieces before being a contender and has payroll issues.

Can you explain the payroll isues to me? The only payroll issue I see for next year is finding enough players to spend all the money the Brewers will have available to spend despite only having a few openings on the roster. Few teams will be able to outspend the Brewers this offseason, because $35 million worth of Melvin's mistakes finally come off the books.

If you honestly believe that because we will be ridding ourselves of "$35

mil worth of mistakes" we could trade future cost controlled players to take on a 1 year rental for

$15 mil then I strongly disagree with your assessment of the Brewers

finances.

 

Additionally, and this is outside of the scope of this thread, I think fans that assume we are going to have trouble spending all of the money we will have available are in for a long winter.

 

The payroll will likely fall back to $80 mil or lower given the drop in attendance that will occur. Then factor in raises to current players and a possible Weeks extension. Wolf will be getting $14 mil I believe. There are probably $5 mil in buyouts to players that wont be on the team. Hawkins at $4.25 may very well do nothing for us. I think they will either take on salary in a trade to get some extra pitching or they will sign another FA pitcher for $10+ mil. Hopefully Melvin goes the smart route and keeps a young bullpen but another reliever for $4-5 mil wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Anyway, its way too early to start adding all of this up, but given past history I don't think $35 mil of past mistakes off the books means it just goes into new production.

[Never Outhustled]

Then factor in raises to current players

I did.

 

and a possible Weeks extension.

How would that increase next years payroll? If anything, it would lower it.

 

 

 

Wolf will be getting $14 mil I believe.

$9.5 million, just like this year.

 

 

There are probably $5 mil in buyouts to players that wont be on the team.

$4 million to be exact.

 

 

 

Hawkins at $4.25 may very well do nothing for us.

His $4 million salary was already factored in, as he is not an expiring contract.

 

 

If we include Fielder at $15 million, pay arby raises to Weeks, Parra, and Coffey, and fill in the rest of the roster with the entry level guys we already have, it totals to just $63 million. Since we're assuming Fieldet gets dealt, the $35 million I mentioned was accurate.

[thebruce44]

X,

 

It looks as though you ignored the part of my post as it relates to this thread. Even so,

 

How would that [Weeks extension] increase next years payroll? If anything, it would lower it.

 

Really? You think if Weeks is extended he will make less than $2.75 mil next year or are you saying less than what he would get in Arby?

 

[Wolf at]$9.5 million, just like this year.

 

He deferred $4.5 mil this season to next year, did he not? Its just not showing up on Cot's spreadsheet.

 

Regardless, the point I was trying to make that you seemed to take exception with was:

 

If you honestly believe that because we will be ridding ourselves of "$35 mil worth of mistakes" we could trade future cost controlled players to take on a 1 year rental for $15 mil then I strongly disagree with your assessment of the Brewers finances.

 

I certainly agree that we will be in a better financial position entering next season than this season. I still don't think that means we should be taking on rentals or trading away future pieces to chase that 85th win. Hence, in this hypothetical situation, it would make little sense for the Brewers to take on 1 year of Fielder.

[Never Outhustled]

Really? You think if Weeks is extended he will make less than $2.75 mil next year or are you saying less than what he would get in Arby?

An extension would have him the same or less than his arby number.

 

 

 

I still don't think that means we should be taking on rentals or trading away future pieces to chase that 85th win. Hence, in this hypothetical situation, it would make little sense for the Brewers to take on 1 year of Fielder.

 

In this hypothetical, we'd still be trading away Fielder for a pitcher. Then lets say we deals McGehee and parts for a pitcher. Suddenly we have enough pitching, and we still have oodles of money available. 7/8 of the lineup is accounted for longterm. Dealing excess minors leaguers now makes sense. So lets say, hypothetically, the team we dealt Fielder to suddenly has money problems and puts him back on the market. It would make sense to take a look.

[colbyjack]

That is an incredibly tough question to answer, as I don't think our perspective allows us to answer that accurately. Many seem to think the Brewers can live without Fielder moving forward, assuming he's dealt for pitching and assuming that the offense won't take a drastic step backward while further assuming the pitching staff takes a big step forward (knowing/hoping that other moves would need to be made).

 

It does seem as though most people don't think we'll get much in return for Fielder. I think the Brewers should look at what the Rockies received in return for Matt Holliday two years ago (Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, Hutson Street) and not narrow their focus to two talented young arms + as rumored/reported. Both the A's and the Rockies were pretty creative making that deal happen, and while the Rockies didn't get pitching in return, they got probably the best young player they could in return, one of who has now developed into the best young players in the game.

 

To answer the question, I'll go Mat Gamel, Wily Peralta and a Taylor Green/Caleb Gindl/Erik Komatsu type of prospect, although I don't know if that would be enough to get him.

 

I will say this, if Daniel Hudson was ever offered he may have been the best pitching prospect Doug Melvin could have hoped for. I don't bring that up to get down on Melvin, as even at the time I didn't think Hudson's upside was great enough to be the centerpiece in a deal for Fielder. And of course, Hudson more than likely will come back to earth at some point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Can you explain the payroll isues to me?

Lowered attendance for '11, combined with the fact that the Brewers have appeared to stretch their payroll to or beyond the supposed limit in each of the past three seasons. My random guess as to what the payroll will be cut is to around the $75-80M mark.

 

i'd trade Gamel, Odorizzi and Braddock.

For only one year of Fielder? That seems like an overpay. I hope that kind of deal is out there this offseason, or the type of deal colby proposed.

[thebruce44]

I still don't think that means we should be taking on rentals or trading away future pieces to chase that 85th win. Hence, in this hypothetical situation, it would make little sense for the Brewers to take on 1 year of Fielder.

In this hypothetical, we'd still be trading away Fielder for a pitcher. Then lets say we deals McGehee and parts for a pitcher. Suddenly we have enough pitching, and we still have oodles of money available. 7/8 of the lineup is accounted for longterm. Dealing excess minors leaguers now makes sense. So lets say, hypothetically, the team we dealt Fielder to suddenly has money problems and puts him back on the market. It would make sense to take a look.

No, in this hypothetical it was made clear we don't have Fielder so we don't trade him for pitching. We are still far from a 90+ win team.

[logan82]

Many seem to think the Brewers can live without Fielder moving forward, assuming he's dealt for pitching and assuming that the offense won't take a drastic step backward while further assuming the pitching staff takes a big step forward (knowing/hoping that other moves would need to be made).

 

The difference between Fielder and Gamel/Lawrie seems to be much less than the difference between whomever our worst starter is and the starter we could get for Fielder. Provided we get an above average starter I would think worst case scenario is that the talent is a wash. Even a league average starter would improve us by about 2 wins over the season.

 

The other big thing we need to consider is when we are going to be a playoff team again. I think next year is highly doubtful so to me it makes little sense to have Fielder for next year. If we were talking about 2012 then maybe Fielder would be worth the few extra wins he provides. Seeing as how there is virtually no chance Fielder signs an extension his value to us is very small.

[Never Outhustled]

No, in this hypothetical it was made clear we don't have Fielder so we don't trade him for pitching. We are still far from a 90+ win team.

 

The hypothetical only makes sense if we already traded him away. If we didn't have him at all, who played 1B this last year? How'd we score these runs without him?