Rule 5 thread -- Latest: Rosario back to Brewers, Egan to Orioles

[Mass Haas]

Will the Brewers have some tough 40-man choices to make?

 

Current roster is at 39 players.

 

Here are the players who were added during the course of the season --

 

C Jonathan Lucroy

LHP Zach Braddock

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

RHP Kameron Loe

RHP Mike McClendon

 

Here are players who are likely to lose their 40-man roster status prior to December's winter meetings, because they'll be eligible for major league free agency.

 

RHP Dave Bush

LHP Chris Capuano

IF Craig Counsell

LHP Doug Davis

RHP Trevor Hoffman

C Gregg Zaun

 

And this thread really isn't about debating the topic of offering arbitration, but yes, additional spots could free up based on the possible departures of Todd Coffey or Carlos Villanueva, or others based on any sort of circumstance.

 

But the point is the Brewers should be able to add those they wish from the list below. If there are tough calls to make, it won't be becasue of overall space. We understand a trade of Prince Fielder could provide several players that need to be added to the 40-man right away, but to summarize, it's not a particularly "tight" year for spots.

[Mass Haas]

Remember --

Players who signed when 18 or younger are eligible for the draft after five years.

Players who signed when 19 or older are eligible after four years.

 

According to the rules, it's how old a player was on the June 5th immediately preceeding his signing.

So in terms of 40-man roster consideration, these are the players not eligible for free agency, but who would be Rule 5 eligible if not placed on the 40-man roster.

 

Thanks to poster Minigoon for tracking all this for us --

Current AAA Players --

 

2B Eric Farris

RHP Donovan Hand

OF Brendan Katin

RHP Brandon Kintzler

LHP Daniel Merklinger

 

Current AA Players --

 

LHP Casey Baron

LHP Bobby Bramhall

OF Chuckie Caufield

LHP Chris Cody

IF Taylor Green

RHP Wily Peralta

IF Zelous Wheeler

IF Steffan Wilson

LHP Brae Wright

 

Current High-A players --

RHP Evan Anundsen

RHP Darren Byrd

IF Matt Cline

RHP Corey Frerichs

OF Brock Kjeldgaard

C Sean McCraw

UT Sergio Miranda

LHP Mike Ramlow

UT Juan Sanchez

 

Current A players or below--

RHP Santo Manzanillo

OF Erik Miller

RHP Rolando Pascual

C Brett Whiteside

[Mass Haas]

Well, for me, the one and only stone-cold lock is Wily Peralta.

I think that the Brewers will also add Eric Farris, Taylor Green, and Brandon Kintzler.

That'd be a nice mix of a starter, a bullpen arm, and two infielders, although neither with a shortstop pedigree of any consequence at all.

If Kintzler excels in the Arizona Fall League, that should lock in his spot.

It's hard to believe Taylor Green could be on a bubble for a spot, but maybe that's the case. Many of you probably don't see him as a "likely".

Did Dan Merklinger work himself into the equation?

Will Brendan Katin be rewarded by being plucked by a power-starved team in Rule 5?

Purely from a Rule 5 perspective as another team looking in and seeing who might that team be able to carry all season, Kintzler, and perhaps Green with his 3B/ 2B versatility, are targets. Peralta's going to be added no matter what, so don't even worry how other clubs might "stash" him.

So when you comment here, as for predictions, this format might work -- here's mine.

Should add -- Peralta, Farris, Green, Kintzler
Will add -- Peralta, Farris, Green, Kintzler

Finally, please keep in mind our list is close to accurate, it may even be 100% so, but we don't have official confirmation from the Brewers (yet) regarding eligibility up and down the organization.

Have at it.

[dadofandrew]

I'd add Merklinger to both lists. I'd have him over Green, who reminds me of Inglett, nice player, but his ceiling isn't all that high. I'd also have DM over Farris, who is limited unless he can play SS/3B/OF. A LHP who K'd more than one an inning can easily be hidden as the last man out there.

[twobrewers]

Wow, Pascual is already rule V eligible. Time flies

 

I agree with Mass on Peralta, Green, Farris and Kintzler.

 

I'd say that Katin is a possibility depending on whether the Brewers have room on the 40-man roster, but I suspect they will allow him to go search for a better opportunity. He doesn't doesn't fit into Milwaukee's plan - Braun and Hart already have the corner spots locked up. I don't think Milwaukee has any interest in a AAA player pinch hitting on a regular basis as the 5th outfielder. They seem content with veterans handling that role.

 

As a wild card, how about Wheeler. Wheeler does play SS. Not well, but at least he would be a back-up SS if they have room on the 40 man roster.

 

Thanks Mass & Minigoon.

[endaround]

One thing to keep in mind is that the team is going to want 40 man room if they trade Fielder.

 

Unless they are sure Farris and Katin will be in Milwaukee in 2011, I don't see them getting spots. Inglett's spot is secure and since Farris can't play short I don't see him being added. Katin has a bit bigger window to be in Milwaukee since he seems to be facing the might of Carlos Gomez but I don't think anyone is afraid of losing Katin in the Rule 5 draft so my guess is they let it be for now. Green is a slightly different case but I think they'll risk losing a guy who had a mediocre 2nd time through AA. I think Peralta has to be added. And I think Kinztler should be as well. The big issue is what to do about Anundsen, will a team take him and stick him on the DL for all of 2011? I don't know how his rehab is going but it could be worth $400K and a loss of a year of service if he can come back full strength for someone in 2012.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The Brewers have plenty of 40 man roster space. In addition to the six Mass mentioned above, Estrada will also be cut. That leaves the the Brewers with 8 open spots. I think the Brewers will add Peralta, Kintzler, Farris, Merkingler, and Green. Leaving 3 spots open for trades. They may even look to add from the Rule 5 draft.

[Mass Haas]

The big issue is what to do about Anundsen, will a team take him and stick him on the DL for all of 2011? I don't know how his rehab is going but it could be worth $400K and a loss of a year of service if he can come back full strength for someone in 2012.

Anundsen was having trouble reaching the high 80's even when healthy, let's say for some reason he was on a major league DL for all of 2011 (we haven't even been told if he's had surgery or not). That would be two full seasons missed, and then a team would have to carry him on their roster for all of 2012 coming off two idle seasons. Just really hard to envision, that's all.

 

[Mass Haas]

As we learned last season with Adam Heether, sometimes these 40-man spots can come from potential minor league free agents. So we'll remind folks about the list in that thread in case anyone wants to nominate a Tim Dillard or a Martin Maldonado, or others.

[Mass Haas]

I'd add Merklinger to both lists. I'd have him over Green, who reminds me of Inglett, nice player, but his ceiling isn't all that high. I'd also have DM over Farris, who is limited unless he can play SS/3B/OF. A LHP who K'd more than one an inning can easily be hidden as the last man out there.

I think we all wish the Brewers would have been more aggressive with Merklinger this season. He'll be 25 in November and has one appearance above high-A ball.

 

Taylor Green's season (stats) was all over the place. He's 5th in the Southern League in RBI with 80 (in just 112 games). He posted an amazing .993 OPS in nearly 200 AB's with men on base, and a pitiful .531 OPS in the same number of AB's with the bases empty. 96 AB's against LHP with some struggles, but not entirely empty (nine XBH). 24 years old this November.

 

Both in the discussion. At times Green's Player of the Year Award does seem so three years ago, admittedly.

 

[agent39]

Taylor will be doing some catching in instructs. Fyi.

[twobrewers]

That is some pretty shocking news.

 

Maybe Taylor Green ends up being what they envisioned for Casey McGehee, a back-up 3rd, 2nd and C.

[craigharmann]

Taylor Green to try to be the Bill Hall of the Brewers? Play every position? Wonder if that was the Brewers' suggestion or Taylor's.

[Minigoon]

I agree with the majority of posters here. Green, Peralta, Kintzler, and Farris. I also think Merklinger is added. I think the AZ Fall League assignment (albeit a taxi squad assignment) seals it for Merklinger. Dark horse candidate would be Donovan Hand. Like McClendon, he just seems to get people out. Katin is also deserving, but I don't think it will happen.

[And That]

Peralta and Kintzler for sure, probably Green.

 

Whether or not they end up protecting Farris may depend on whether or not they make progress on a long-term deal with Weeks between now and the time the 40-man rosters need to be set for the Rule 5 draft. I'd still lean to probably yes on him - I think the Brewers like him a bit.

 

Merklinger may or may not be, depending on his performance in the AFL.

 

I'd like to see Katin and Dillard added (in Dillard's case, once the AAA season is over with this afternoon), but both are likely longshots. Wheeler and Ramlow fall in to the longshot category too.

[gregmag]

I don't see either Farris or Katin as having long-term value -- I don't think either will have a substantial big-league career. But I can see how Katin could help the Brewers in the short term. I don't see that with Farris; if the Brewers lose Weeks, they need a big-league hitter to play 2b, and I don't think Farris is a big-league hitter. Maybe if you want short-term injury insurance for Weeks, but that's a heck of a small niche. Also, I can easily see somebody grabbing Katin in the Rule 5. I can see somebody grabbing Dillard, but I don't see him as having above-replacement value.

 

Kintzler has been added. Peralta for sure. Green, in a year like this where we have some space, absolutely. Merklinger, yes, for the reasons Al stated. I like Wheeler as a future utility candidate, but I don't think anyone would grab him now in the Rule 5; I sort of feel the same way about Hand, whom I like a bit more than Dillard.

 

Should add: (Kintzler), Peralta, Green, Merklinger, Katin.

 

Will add: (Kintzler), Peralta, Green, Katin, Farris.

[pete]

Here are recent rule V drafts. Its a real test of knowledge of rosters and teams to know some of the names. Pitching dominates. Is my recollection correct that Chris Cody is very soft tosser and probably wouldn't be viewed as a major leaguer?

 

There is the odd position player in there. You never know when a team like the Padres will pick up an Everth Cabrera. I could see a team like the Pirates taking a shot on Katin and risking the 50K. About the only thing I can remember the org saying about him was Melvin once referring to him as "intriguing" when asked. I get the impression that they like both Taylor and Farris although that's not based on much. Farris reminds me a bit of Martin Prado.

[LouisEly]

Well, as of today Kintzler has been added so he's off my list.

 

Will add: Peralta, Green, Merklinger (lefties are too easy to stash away as LOOGies)

 

Questionable: Farris, Anundsen

 

Dark Horses: Frerichs, Manzanillo

 

I list Farris as questionable because of organization depth at 2B (Weeks, Lawrie, Gennett, Dykstra) - do they need another 2B? Unless they plan on trading Weeks I don't know that Farris is a lock, but the AFL assignment is a good sign. As mentioned, Anundsen is questionable due to injury. Frerichs lost 2009 to injury, but if you combine 2010 and 2008 his two years in A-ball total: 159 IP, 116 H, 171 K. Maybe they protect Manzanillo because of the potential of his arm; bullpen arms are the easiest to protect. Something tells me that if Katin isn't called up he won't be added; I could see the Padres, Pirates, or Mariners taking a flyer on him.

[agent39]

Taylor Green to try to be the Bill Hall of the Brewers? Play every position? Wonder if that was the Brewers' suggestion or Taylor's.

Taylors

[CheezWizHed]

That isn't a bad idea on Taylor's part... We pretty much lost our depth at C above A-ball, as opposed to a crowded 2B/3B. Just questionable if he could pick it up at this point in his career.

 

Either way, its nice to see someone with the ambition to make himself more playable rather than P&Ming about being moved...

 

I suppose its no irony that he is our best defensive 3B-man.

 

I root for Peralta, Merklinger and Green on the 40-man. Congrats to Kintzler for making it already. If they haven't added Dillard or Katin yet, they aren't going to...

[craigharmann]

Either way, its nice to see someone with the ambition to make himself more playable rather than P&Ming about being moved...

I agree! Making himself more valuable is a great way to go, and I'm glad he is willing to do it. I hope for nothing but the best for Taylor. I'd really like to see him stick at third, though.

[Tedaldtada]

If you have room, you might as well keep Katin and Dillard.

 

Say you put Katin on the 40 man. When could they remove him (I realize that he would be put on waivers if they removed him)? How much money would it cost? I'm sure there are some tricky rules or something I am not aware of.

[endaround]

Right now if a team wants Katin they have to keep him on the 25 man for a year. If he is put on the 40 man and then waived a team only needs a 40 man spot. Dillard could also be offered 40 man money with the Brewers and an NRI to Arizona and they coudl keep a 40 man spot open.

[dadofandrew]

No one cares if Farris has a future in MIL, the fear is who has value that you may lose for nothing.

[gregmag]

Well, I don't think Farris has a future in MLB, for the same reasons I don't think he has a future in Milwaukee. I'm not adamant about the point, but that's my best sense right now. I don't think a 24 year-old, limited to 2b, who hits .280 in a hitter-friendly AAA environment, with good speed but no patience or power, has any future. If I'm right, and if that's how other teams see him, then I'm not really concerned about losing him for nothing in the Rule 5, as I don't think he'd bring anything worthwhile back in a trade anyway. Everybody on my add list down to and including Katin has more present and future value. That leaves two roster spots. I'd much rather devote those spots to Fielder trade additions or DM's usual high grade of waiver-wire pickups -- or, what the heck, his usual low grade of Rule 5 dice-roll -- than to protecting Farris from the Rule 5.

 

Isn't Hernan Iribarren a useful comparison? It's pretty obvious, and I haven't followed the Farris debate avidly, so I apologize if someone has covered this ground. These two guys had essentially the same age-24 season at AAA: .277/.329/.341 for Iribarren, .274/.311/.348 for Farris (excluding his Arizona rehab stint). Farris was the better base-stealer, but Iribarren played CF and LF in addition to 2b. Look at their OPS progressions, ages 21-24:

 

Iribarren: 21/A/.739; 22/A+/.761; 23/AA/.793; 24/AAA/.670

 

Farris: 21/R+/.792; 22/A/.709; 23/A+/.725; 24/AAA/.659

 

Iribarren was a level ahead of Farris for each of the first three years, but Iribarren soundly outhit Farris during the last two of those seasons. Iribarren in his age 24 season crashed and burned, and it took that crash to bring him down to Farris' age 24 level. Iribarren, btw, rebounded from what for him was that terrible age 24 season by repeating AAA at age 25 and posing a .774 OPS. That was when we lost him on waivers, this past March, and nobody seemed excessively broken up. Can you imagine if Farris next year, at AAA, improved his OPS by 100 points and learned to play outfield? That would mark an enormous improvement in his value . . . and it would take that enormous improvement to get him up to where Iribarren was when we lost him for nothing.

 

So no, I'm not really concerned about protecting Farris for fear that we'll lose him for nothing. I don't mean to bash the kid; he seems to work hard and get a lot out of his ability. I just don't see him as a good use of a roster spot in present conditions.