Cliff Lee

[dadofandrew]

trwi7[/b]]

dadofandrew[/b]]There's a reason ARod has cleared waivers several times and was listed as having the most negative trade value...he's a good player, but no one can afford him. Lee gets injured, and a small market team is sunk, they simply do not have the money to make up for that loss.

 

The past three years we've been spending $20 million+ on Suppan, Hall and Riske. Where's the value there? Add Hawkins, Davis and Hoffman this year. We've been paying for uselessness for years. If we are going to spend $20-25 million and I'm not sure I want to right now, I'd rather spend it on one elite player than on three crappy players like we have been the past four years.

 

You are assuming we make no further mistakes on signings. That hasn't happened in a long time so I have a problem just assuming that will be the case going forward.

Well said. Signing Lee does not mean no one else will be hurt/ineffective, that's the nature of the game. I'm not sure how the argument that all your eggs in one basket is safer anyway, it seems like a bizarro world belief. As others have said, the idea the Yankees won't just pay $5M more than whatever offer the Crew can come up with seems shortsighted. The Yankees paid CC $3M more per year and 2 more seasons. They can do that with Lee too. The Crew's chance is to find players with loyalty that want to play in MIL. Cliff Lee has never played in MIL and probably has no desire to. Ditto for CLE, KC, and so on.

 

Mark A had a true statement the other day when he discussed how players have negotiated with them, went elsewhere, and then put MIL into their no-trade clause. They had no chance. That's exactly how I feel about Lee. The only way to get a guy like that is to sign and/or develop him, like Yo, and have him want to stay.

 

If you replace Lee's '10 stats with the Crew's worst SP, they prevent about 45 more runs, and by resting the 'pen a bit more, you can probably argue it's 50. Using the rule of 10, that's 5 wins...still nowhere near contention, probably about .500. If used wisely, I gotta think you can improve the club more than 5 wins with $25M.

[trwi7]

To be clear, I'm not arguing we should go and spend $25 million a year on Cliff Lee. I'm saying if we were to go the free agent route it would be better spent trying to get an elite player like Lee than how we have been using free agency.

[Invader3K]

To be clear, I'm not arguing we should go and spend $25 million a year on Cliff Lee. I'm saying if we were to go the free agent route it would be better spent trying to get an elite player like Lee than how we have been using free agency.

This I agree with, and it seems like Melvin and Attanasio have picked up on this from recent comments. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't sign any FA pitchers this winter. In fact, I pretty much hope that's what they do.

[Invader3K]

Here's a blurb from Jayson Stark that's up on MLB Trade Rumors right now:

 

One source told Stark that Cliff Lee will follow the money this winter: “Cliff would go to Siberia if they offered him the biggest contract."

[endaround]

I'd be very surprised if they don''t sign a FA pitcher this winter. They have 2 spots to fill and my guess is Fielder isn't going to bring in a starter who is ready to go in April unless SF wants a Fielder for Cain deal for some reason.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/102093458.html

 

Thought this was interesting from TH. Also includes a link to an article from Jayson Stark. Here's a quote from TH, "Stark was told the Brewers wanted two young front-line pitchers for Fielder back then and would have done a deal if a team made such an offer." Apparently, Melvin thinks he can get both starters that we need just for Fielder. I doubt that happens, but you never know I guess.

[dadofandrew]

I think they'll get 2-3 players, but only one P may be MLB ready. I think they'll sign a FA as well, but it will likely be of the bargain variety.

[jwill535]

Like I have been saying, the more money that the Brewers eat of Prince's salary next year, the better the haul. The money used there will be the most important FA money usage.

[monty57]

Yeah, two young, front-line starters seems pretty steep. No wonder no deals were made prior to trade deadline. I agree with Al on this. Prince will probably bring back one pitcher for our rotation in 2011 plus a high upside minor leaguer or two.

 

I'd guess we'll look for two new pitchers from outside the organization, so the other one will either have to come from trading other players or picking up a FA. Obviously, Cliff Lee would be wonderful but not probable.

[Never Outhustled]

As others have said, the idea the Yankees won't just pay $5M more than whatever offer the Crew can come up with seems shortsighted. The Yankees paid CC $3M more per year and 2 more seasons. They can do that with Lee too.

Just like they did with Manny Ramirez. No, they were outbid by their hated division rival. Like they did for Carlos Beltran? No, they were outbid by their cross town rival.

 

As for CC, the Brewers could easily being paying more for him right now than what the Yankees gave him. I didn't want top retain him at the time, but in hindsite it was a mistake.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just like they did with Manny Ramirez. No, they were outbid by their hated division rival. Like they did for Carlos Beltran? No, they were outbid by their cross town rival.

 

Whether you're going to put any importance in it or not, both those signings took place when The Boss was still in complete control. Since Cashman has been allowed to run the team the way he wants, the top priority targets aren't getting away -- Burnett, Teixeira, Sabathia, etc. I can see why you don't believe it as strongly as I do, but I am as close as you can get to 100% certainty without having clairvoyant abilities that Lee will be a Yankee next season.

[kramnoj]

Like they did for Carlos Beltran? No, they were outbid by their cross town rival.

 

They were only outbid in the sense that the Yankees didn't go strong after Beltran. There were rumblings that Beltran would have signed for less with the Yankees than he did with the Mets (better chance of winning). Contrary to what some believe, the Yankees actually have a limit, and couldn't get both Randy Johnson and Beltran that season, so the Yankees chose the Big Unit and let Beltran go.

 

I think the assumption is that Lee is signing with the Yankees, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers actually had more money to spend this offseason than the Yankees do. Just a guess, but I would imagine that the Yankees will sign Lee, but it will be backloaded where a lot of the money comes after 3 years or so when Posada, Rivera, and maybe Jeter may not be playing anymore.

[Baldkin]

The Yankees have 70M coming off the books this year. Seventy Million. Now Jeter and Rivera are about half that, and will be resigned... but still, they have as much money as the Brewers coming off the books even if you don't include Fielder's salary at all next year.

 

Vazquez and Pettite total 23M on their own.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, the Yankees will likely have two rotation spots to fill. I don't see how you can't realistically pencil Lee into their 2011 rotation at this point.

[kramnoj]

Baldkin, I don't see how your post proves anything different than what I said. If the Yankees retain Pettitte, Jeter and Rivera, they will have about the same money, or possibly less, to spend on Lee than the Brewers will.

 

We also at this point don't know that $213M is the new budget for the Yankees. That may have been a stretch for them this year, so we can't assume that they will be able to spend every dollar they spent this year.

[thebruce44]

As others have said, the idea the Yankees won't just pay $5M more than whatever offer the Crew can come up with seems shortsighted. The Yankees paid CC $3M more per year and 2 more seasons. They can do that with Lee too.

Just like they did with Manny Ramirez. No, they were outbid by their hated division rival. Like they did for Carlos Beltran? No, they were outbid by their cross town rival.

What does this have to do with the Milwaukee Brewers and Cliff Lee?

[thebruce44]

trwi7[/b]]

thebruce44[/b]]You are assuming we make no further mistakes on signings. That hasn't happened in a long time so I have a problem just assuming that will be the case going forward.

Once again though, we're paying like $40 million for uselessness this year. I'd imagine if Lee or some other elite free agent were signed, we wouldn't be spending $10 million an offseason on the bullpen or an extra few million on the bench or $5-8 million for a #5 starter.

Just looking at next year's obligations, we already are $2 mil in the hole on Soup, $11-13 mil on Wolf (depending on how he rebounds, that could be considered uselessness), $0.5 mil buyout on Hoffman, $8.8 mil on Hart (again, could be wasting or 5 mil if he reverts to being only a win above replacement level), $0.25 buyout on Riske, $1 mil buyout on DD, $4.25 on Hawkins that could again be uselessness, $0.25 on Zaun, and maybe another $1.5 mil waisted on hoping Gomez finally figures it out.

 

Thats potentially $14 mil for no production right there not counting Wolf, would could bring the estimate up to $25 mil. And thats just what we are already on the hook for. Then there will be injuries and some other unpredictable ineffectiveness. It happens every year, and to some extent, every team.