Cliff Lee

[reillymcshane]

I apologize for the long post - but here is how and why we go after Cliff Lee in the off season:

 

I don't think free agency is the best thing, but it does have its time and place. The Brewers need to fix their starting pitching, and Cliff Lee is the best starting pitcher available this year in Free Agency. We have a lot of money coming off the books, so I'm going to show how we can get Lee and actually fit him in our budget.

 

Here are the moves you make to set up this team:

 

1. Trade Fielder. Get a package centered around a young talented starter with upside - Madison Bumgarner is an example (I'm not saying he is the only guy, just an example). Get a guy with at least 5 years before free agency. This guy moves into the rotation and slides into the 4th slot. Gamel becomes the 1st baseman.

 

2. For the fifth starter, grab a cheap innings eating vet - like a Bush or a Looper type - someone to get six innings and - if you're lucky - a 4.50 era. But 5.00 is more likely. You could also try a younger player - maybe even go with Narverson.

 

3. Sign Ricky to a deal similar to Hart's. If that can't be done, expect 2011 to be his last year, and prepare lawrie to replace him in 2012.

 

4. Avoid old relievers like the plague. Most relievers are unpredictable as it is, and paying them $3-4 million isn't worth it. I'd rather role the dice on a cheap, young player. Make it a philosophy not to try and buy a bullpen. It rarely works. San Diego does it great.

 

5. Seriously consider dealing Gomez, as he looks like a 5th OF to me.

 

6. Sign Cliff Lee. I imagine this will take upwards of $120 million and six years. That's a huge commitment. Probably stupid for any team. Maybe crippling - but a rotation with Lee, Gallardo, Wolf, a young stud starter and a innings eating vet - along with an above average offense and solid bullpen - makes us a contender for several years. And just as important, the roster is manageable, payroll wise. One way to manage payroll is to pay Lee more early in the contract - thus increasing the value - something we probably need to do to really make the offer attractive. But by paying more up front now we gain flexibility later. Not much, but a little.

 

Can we afford Lee at $20 million a year? Here's roster and salaries for the next three years (I've rounded numbers to the nearest $500,000 for easy addition):

 

2011

 

C - Lucroy - .5

C - Kottara - .5

1B - Gamel - .5

2B - Weeks - 7.5

SS - Escobar - .5

3B - McGehee - .5

LF - Braun - 4.0

CF - Cain - .5

RF - Hart - 7.5

OF - Dickerson - .5

OF - Sign someone - 1.0

INF - Counsel (or someone like him) - 1.0

INF - Inglett - 1.0

 

SP - Lee - 25.0

SP - Gallardo - 3.5

SP - Wolf - 10.0

SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5

SP - Looper / Bush like innings eater guy - 2.0

 

RP - Axford - .5

RP - Braddock - .5

RP - Hawkins - 4.0

RP - Loe - 1.0 (I don't know if he's arby, so I gave him this number)

RP - Coffey - 2.0

RP - Villanueva - 1.0

RP - Narveson - .5

RP - Parra - 1.0

 

Other potential pitchers are Rogers and Jeffress. Coffey, Villanueva and Parra are all contenders to be non-tendered, but each is in there for now.

 

Total: $77 million - even with all the relievers. Add in around $5 million in buyouts (suppan, hall, hoffman, Davis). Total is around $82 million. This gives flexibility to add a little salary during the year if we are in the race and we have needs.

 

2012

 

C - Lucroy - .5

C - Kottara - .5

1B - Gamel - .5

2B - Weeks - 8.5

SS - Escobar - .5

3B - McGehee - 2.5

LF - Braun - 6.0

CF - Cain - .5

RF - Hart - 8.5

OF - Dickerson - .5

OF - Slot in a guy - 1.0

INF - Counsel (or someone like him) - 1.0

INF - Inglett (or someone like him) - 1.0

 

SP - Lee - 23.0

SP - Gallardo - 5.5

SP - Wolf - 10.0

SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5

SP - Looper / Bush like guy - 2.0

 

RP - Axford - .5

RP - Braddock - .5

RP - Loe - 2.0

RP - Narveson - .5

RP - Rogers - .5

RP - Jeffress - .5

RP - One or two other guys - 2.0

 

Total: $79 million. Again, we have space to add salary if needed during the year.

 

Also, if Weeks isn't resigned, then Lawrie is at 2B, and you save $8 million. If Weeks is still resigned, Lawrie would need a position - perhaps deal someone, or if someone falters or injured (which is bound to happen), move things accordingly.

 

2013

 

C - Lucroy - 2.5

 

C - Cheap catcher - 1.0

 

1B - Gamel - 2.5

 

2B - Weeks - 9.5

 

SS - Escobar - 2.5

 

3B - McGehee - 5.0

 

LF - Braun - 8.0

 

CF - Cain - .5

 

RF - Hart - 9.5

 

OF - Back up guy - 1.0

 

OF - Slot in a guy - 1.0

 

INF - Get a guy - 1.0

 

INF - Get a guy - 1.0

 

 

 

SP - Lee - 21.0

 

SP - Gallardo - 8.0

 

SP - Replace with home grown player (cross fingers!)

 

SP - Guy we get for Prince - .5 (could be higher if reached arbitration)

 

SP - Looper / Bush like guy - 2.0

 

 

 

RP - Axford - 2.5

 

RP - Braddock - .5

 

RP - Rogers - .5

RP - Jeffress - .5

RP - At this point, knowing who's a reliever and not is hard - but budget $5 million for the rest

 

Total: $85.5 million. This may be a tad high, but better high than low. We probably would still have a little wiggle room to add salary during the season. Not much, but a little.

 

Again, Lawrie should be in here, but you probably need to play things by ear and see how things turn out with injuries, FA, etc. to determine his future position.

 

I realize I'm making lots of guesses - salaries, whether guys like Rogers and Jeffress end up as starters or relievers - not to mention what will we really get for Fielder - and the biggest question, would Cliff Lee ever consider even signing here.

 

Beyond 2013 it's tough to do the numbers. Weeks and Hart come off the book, so you need replacements. Lee goes down by $2 million each year ($19 million in 2014, $17 in 2015, $15 in 2016) - which means he gets $120/six years - but with higher payments to start. Again, if that's enough to sign him, i don't know.

 

With regard to Lee, I just think the team needs a second top of the rotation guy to really help carry the club. I'm tired of us spending $10 million on mediocre starters. We don't have any stud starters coming up for a few years, so FA is the route we need to take. Of course, we could try and trade for a stud starting pitcher and try and sign him to a big contract - that's possible. But we'd have to give up something good for him - such as Lawrie. And that's if a team is willing to deal a great starter. Lee won't cost prospects or players (and a 2nd round pick), and he pitches lots of innings, goes deep into games, and has three years of ace-like play in a row - he's not a fluke. He's 32, so he's at the age where injury becomes more prevalent, so it's a massive risk. But the club would be set up for the next 3-4 years, and wouldn't need to make any big FA signings. In reality, it's the contract we all wish CC would have taken two years ago - six years and $120 million.

 

Such a move would take us out of the free agent market for several years - which is okay. We can use it for short term needs and role players.

[danzig6767]

Cliff Lee is an elite starting pitcher who also eats a lot of innings, that's the most valuable commodity in the game. In the offseason his agent will milk that demand and very likely get a huge offer or offers that would force the Brewers to top which could be very dangerous for the franchise. Dangerous enough that i doubt the Brewers will even try getting involved.

[Invader3K]

I think your logic is sound, and I like what you put together. That said, 6 years/$120 million is absolutely the upper limit of what I would like to see this team pay any starting pitcher. The problem is that if the Yankees really want him (which seems to be the case), they will just tack on more money and/or years and the Brewers won't responsibly be able to top it.

 

The only way we're going to be able to add serious impact pitching this off-season is through trades, I feel. Lee is the only really good SP on the free agency market this winter.

[Never Outhustled]

Nice work Reillymcshane.

 

We can afford a 5 yr/$135 million deal for Lee, $25 million per season plus a $10 million signing bonus on top of the years salary next year. The above post is $2 high with the Weeks and Hart salaries, we'd really have only $80 committed, $10 power than this years opening day budget. So theres room for the bonus. If we can get Lee, we'll max out the budget because we'll have very strong projected attendance.

[Baldkin]

While I agree with your post, in theory, you've neglected one very important thing: there is no way that Lee isn't a Yankee by opening day next year.

They will trump any offer any team gives Lee, because Andy Steroids Pettite is going to retire and they want Lee to take his spot in the rotation.

[monty57]

I'm on board with Baldkin. The Brewers competing with the Yankees is like me going to an auction with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. Even if I want to mortgage my entire future on something... if they want it, there's nothing I can do. I expect the Yankees to do with Lee what they did with CC, which is to offer well above what anyone else is likely to offer, and if the player doesn't immediately jump at that offer, they outbid themselves to make sure no one else even gets in the game. This will be even more assured if the All Star team currently assembled/bought in New York doesn't win the World Series.

 

That said, if we were ever to make an offer like this, this offseason would be the time to do it. We'll have a lot of excess cash, and would be able to offer a big "signing bonus" to front-load any offer. For instance, we could offer 5 years at $20MM/year, with a $10MM upfront signing bonus. It would be awfully enticing to get $10MM the minute you sign totalling $30MM in the first year rather than waiting six years to get a little more money.

[dadofandrew]

And if he gets hurt and misses 1-2 seasons?

[trwi7]

And if he gets hurt and misses 1-2 seasons?

 

Then you're still paying less than you were to Hoffman, Suppan, Hawkins, Davis and Hall this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Yankees have already identified Lee as their main target this coming offseason, just like Sabathia was two offseasons ago. They will not be outbid for him, period.

[Invader3K]

Plus Lee may want to go pitch with his former "co-ace" again.

[reillymcshane]

I do know that if Pettite retires and Vasquez let go, the Yanks have nearly $20 million right there freed up. While they don't have other big money coming off the books (i'm not counting Jeter and Rivera who we all assume will resign), getting the $20 million needed for Lee shouldn't be hard. As people say, he reportely wants to play in NY and the Yanks will need him. Still, you never know.

[twobrewers]

If they were to sign Cliff Lee, I believe they would keep Prince as well.

 

Why add one huge piece and trade another? With both they would be World Series contenders.

[endaround]

And if he gets hurt and misses 1-2 seasons?

And if Yo gets hurt and misses 1-2 seasons? The money doesn't matter for elite talent, there aren't replacements available for any price.

[Never Outhustled]

And if he gets hurt and misses 1-2 seasons?

 

Then you're still paying less than you were to Hoffman, Suppan, Hawkins, Davis and Hall this year.

 

You can throw Riske into that group too. That runs the combined salary of those players to $39.25 million. That makes it easy to see how some of us would have no problem spending a mere $25 million on a great player.

 

 

The Yankees have already identified Lee as their main target this coming offseason, just like Sabathia was two offseasons ago. They will not be outbid for him, period.

 

Maybe true, but the same was said a few years ago about the Yankees bringing home NY native Manny Ramirez, and he ended up with their biggest rival.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The better route to go imo is to trade two of our bats for two starting pitchers. Then we'll have 4 solid starters, and can plug in someone like Narveson as the 5th starter. If we have a solid starting rotation we can compete without 2 of our bats. The Giants are competing right now with almost no offense compared to what we have. I think the smart move is to trade Prince and one of Weeks/McGehee/Hart, and avoid pitchers completely in free agency.

[Never Outhustled]

The better route to go imo is to trade two of our bats for two starting pitchers. Then we'll have 4 solid starters, and can plug in someone like Narveson as the 5th starter. If we have a solid starting rotation we can compete without 2 of our bats. The Giants are competing right now with almost no offense compared to what we have. I think the smart move is to trade Prince and one of Weeks/McGehee/Hart, and avoid pitchers completely in free agency.

I understand what your saying, but at the same time, do you think its important to slash payroll by $30 million? Isn't that a little extreme?

[PrinceEatMeat]

The better route to go imo is to trade two of our bats for two starting pitchers. Then we'll have 4 solid starters, and can plug in someone like Narveson as the 5th starter. If we have a solid starting rotation we can compete without 2 of our bats. The Giants are competing right now with almost no offense compared to what we have. I think the smart move is to trade Prince and one of Weeks/McGehee/Hart, and avoid pitchers completely in free agency.

I understand what your saying, but at the same time, do you think its important to slash payroll by $30 million? Isn't that a little extreme?

Well, the pitchers we acquire will probably be cheap. But you figure that if we keep Weeks a good chunk of money will go to him. Then everyone will get increases in arby, and depending on what offensive positions are left open, I could see us going after a bat in free agency. Attanasio's comments just make it seem to me that he isn't willing to go after pitcher's in free agency anymore.

[Never Outhustled]

The better route to go imo is to trade two of our bats for two starting pitchers. Then we'll have 4 solid starters, and can plug in someone like Narveson as the 5th starter. If we have a solid starting rotation we can compete without 2 of our bats. The Giants are competing right now with almost no offense compared to what we have. I think the smart move is to trade Prince and one of Weeks/McGehee/Hart, and avoid pitchers completely in free agency.

I understand what your saying, but at the same time, do you think its important to slash payroll by $30 million? Isn't that a little extreme?

Well, the pitchers we acquire will probably be cheap. But you figure that if we keep Weeks a good chunk of money will go to him. Then everyone will get increases in arby, and depending on what offensive positions are left open, I could see us going after a bat in free agency. Attanasio's comments just make it seem to me that he isn't willing to go after pitcher's in free agency anymore.

 

Weeks and the other arby raises are already factored in, and I factored one of the pitchers we acquire to have a mid-sized salary too. We could sign a bat, but that won't eat up $30 million.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I understand what your saying, but at the same time, do you think its important to slash payroll by $30 million? Isn't that a little extreme?

Well, the pitchers we acquire will probably be cheap. But you figure that if we keep Weeks a good chunk of money will go to him. Then everyone will get increases in arby, and depending on what offensive positions are left open, I could see us going after a bat in free agency. Attanasio's comments just make it seem to me that he isn't willing to go after pitcher's in free agency anymore.

 

Weeks and the other arby raises are already factored in, and I factored one of the pitchers we acquire to have a mid-sized salary too. We could sign a bat, but that won't eat up $30 million.

Ok, well we don't need to spend all the money right away. I guess if we could get a quality starter that isn't old and average like Wolf or Suppan we might do it, but I just don't see it happening. Although, if we don't trade two bats for pitchers, I guess we do need to sign one starter. Either way, I don't see our payroll equalling this year's payroll.

[dadofandrew]

There's a reason ARod has cleared waivers several times and was listed as having the most negative trade value...he's a good player, but no one can afford him. Lee gets injured, and a small market team is sunk, they simply do not have the money to make up for that loss.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, the thing is the Yankees are basically playing with house money and the Brewers are using their life savings, when it comes to these types of huge contracts. Signing Lee and then seeing him go down to a serious injury, or even just declining, could be devastating to the team. Have to remember that he just turned 32 as well.

[trwi7]

There's a reason ARod has cleared waivers several times and was listed as having the most negative trade value...he's a good player, but no one can afford him. Lee gets injured, and a small market team is sunk, they simply do not have the money to make up for that loss.

 

The past three years we've been spending $20 million+ on Suppan, Hall and Riske. Where's the value there? Add Hawkins, Davis and Hoffman this year. We've been paying for uselessness for years. If we are going to spend $20-25 million and I'm not sure I want to right now, I'd rather spend it on one elite player than on three crappy players like we have been the past four years.

[thebruce44]

trwi7[/b]]

dadofandrew[/b]]There's a reason ARod has cleared waivers several times and was listed as having the most negative trade value...he's a good player, but no one can afford him. Lee gets injured, and a small market team is sunk, they simply do not have the money to make up for that loss.

 

The past three years we've been spending $20 million+ on Suppan, Hall and Riske. Where's the value there? Add Hawkins, Davis and Hoffman this year. We've been paying for uselessness for years. If we are going to spend $20-25 million and I'm not sure I want to right now, I'd rather spend it on one elite player than on three crappy players like we have been the past four years.

 

You are assuming we make no further mistakes on signings. That hasn't happened in a long time so I have a problem just assuming that will be the case going forward.

[travisteck]

I honestly do not see how any of you think that we have any chance at signing Lee.

 

First, as everyone has stated there's the Yankees, who will not be outbid.

 

If somehow they do get outbid, you know it will be by someone like the Red Sox, Angels, or obviously Texas. Ryan has stated that he wants to keep Lee there, he's his kind of pitcher. Goes out, throws a ton of innings, doesn't whine. Now that ownership is settled, I think that they are 2nd behind the yankess.

 

If we do offer up a contract, it would be the same as the lowest offer the yankees throw out there, and if you're Cliff Lee, who would you rather play for, a contender that has won almost 30 world series, or a team that hasn't won one? Now I hope as much as the next guy that some how, some way, we get him, but I think that anything we throw at him, Cashman and the yanks will come back with 10 mil more tacked on atleast.

[trwi7]

You are assuming we make no further mistakes on signings. That hasn't happened in a long time so I have a problem just assuming that will be the case going forward.

Once again though, we're paying like $40 million for uselessness this year. I'd imagine if Lee or some other elite free agent were signed, we wouldn't be spending $10 million an offseason on the bullpen or an extra few million on the bench or $5-8 million for a #5 starter.