Time to shut down Gallardo

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Gallardo has been shelled four of his past 8 outings, and has only two quality starts since the All-Star break. The stats aren't updated with tonight's game yet, but his post-AS break ERA must be over 7.00 and hitters are hitting well over .300 on him. His talent and value to this franchise is enormous and I just don't understand why we keep throwing him out there to eat innings when something is clearly bothering him.

 

Thoughts?

[PrinceEatMeat]

I agree, but Gallardo is too much of a competitor to admit that something is bothering him. Unless he does, I doubt he'll be shut down.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

He's needs to throw the curveball. Maybe he threw it tonight (missed most of the game), but ever since he got hurt on the curve, he just won't throw it and it's killing him. He doesn't have an "out" pitch without it.

[RU Rah Rah]

I hate to say this, but a related question regards Gallardo's overall talent. I am not -- repeat, not -- putting too much stock in the "similar pitchers" boxes on baseball-reference.com, but when you look at them for Gallardo, it's sobering. The names include such luminaries as Gary Gentry, Fausto Carmona, and Jason Bere. I know that he gets talked about in reverent tones, but do the numbers so far, after 80 MLB games, really justify it?

[TooLiveBrew]

I was going to bump an older Gallardo thread, but since this one was just started... FanGraphs just had a post on Yo earlier today -- and if it makes you feel better, RU Rah Rah, it compares him to King Felix http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. Giving Gallardo Love

Yovani Gallardo is one of four National League starting pitchers with a sub-3 FIP and yet only three posts have included him this season. Two April posts on his extension and fantasy availability and then Gallardo’s entry into the Trade Value series. Otherwise, Gallardo’s season is one of the fertile patches around these parts thanks to Jack Moore’s tears cried from neglect.

 

Workload appears to be the reason Gallardo’s name is absent from the best pitching season talk. He missed time with an oblique injury, limiting his innings total to 149 innings. Most of Gallardo’s company is at 180 innings and rising, making Gallardo’s innings supply appear bare. Still, 2010 is an impressive season. Gallardo is the same age as that Felix Hernandez guy and his FIP this season (and for his career) is comparable to the King.

 

Now, Gallardo has something like 640 innings fewer than Hernandez and his ability to get groundballs and limit walks is clearly trailing Hernandez’s, but that he can stand next to Hernandez and not look like a complete second-class citizen is a compliment. The hierarchy effect does come into play when comparing Gallardo to his slumdog rotation mates. While Gallardo himself has accrued 3.9 WAR, the sum of the next five pitchers with the highest starts total (Wolf, Bush, Narveson, Parra, and Davis) is 1.1. You can triple that and Gallardo still wins.

 

Gallardo’s fastball is a fine pitch that sits in the low-90s. It does not miss bats as often as one would expect, however, Gallardo supplements that aspect with precision. The true seductresses in his arsenal are his breaking pitches. A delightful pair, indeed, which tempt but rarely fulfills batters’ need for contact. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 10%, leading the rest of the Gallardo’s pack.

 

The smudge on Gallardo’s Mona Lisa is simply durability. Simply not because durability is the easiest thing in the world to alter or fix – just ask the last great starting pitcher the Brewers’ system produced – but in the sense that the number of issues with his play is one. To compete next year, Milwaukee needs insurance, not just from Lloyd’s of London, but also in the form of an upgraded rotation in order to complement their young ace. They also might need a spotlight to ensure Gallardo gets the shine he deserves.

[Diskono]

I hate to say this, but a related question regards Gallardo's overall talent. I am not -- repeat, not -- putting too much stock in the "similar pitchers" boxes on baseball-reference.com, but when you look at them for Gallardo, it's sobering. The names include such luminaries as Gary Gentry, Fausto Carmona, and Jason Bere. I know that he gets talked about in reverent tones, but do the numbers so far, after 80 MLB games, really justify it?

I wouldn't be too ashamed of being compared to those players through age 23 - Gentry had a WHIP under 1.2, Carmona was a Cy Young candidate, and Bere was an All-Star. The rest of their careers didn't go so well (though Gentry continued to be very solid until he had elbow problems), but that's not something a similarity score can predict.

[JonnyLungs]

Sure, shut him down now around 150 innings. But are people going to complain next year when he needs to go over 200 innings and that it will be too much of an increased work load from one year to the next?

[RU Rah Rah]

And just to be clear: I'm not suggesting that I think Yo is lousy or anything. He's obviously above average. I guess my question is: How far above average?

[Invader3K]

And just to be clear: I'm not suggesting that I think Yo is lousy or anything. He's obviously above average. I guess my question is: How far above average?

I think he's re-affirming my belief that he's closer to being a really good #2 than a true #1.

[bcf5575]

I was expecting to see Yo transition into an elite pitcher this year. He has shown flashes, but even earlier in the season when he was pitching better, high pitch counts prevented him from going late into games (which I believe an elite pitcher should do). I do wonder if the pressure of needing to be the "ace" of the staff has gotten to him over the course of the year. He is still a young guy, and having everybody counting on you to go 7-8 strong innings everytime out to save the bullpen could have an effect on a guy.

 

with that said, if he is truly healthy, I see no point in shutting him down this year. Every pitcher/player goes through slumps during the season and needs to learn to work through it.

[Patrick425]

Maybe when he's 30 and has 10 years of experience people will finally not be so concerned about "over-using" him. At what point do we drop this "young fragile arm" stuff and treat him like any other MLB pitcher?

[monkeyman343434]

I agree with Patrick, he's got to be able to go 200 IP this year. I think there are 2 major things holding Gallardo back from making the next jump up as a SP. 1) He just doesn't throw enough strikes. He has 1679 strikes in 2700 pitches thrown this year, just above 61%. That isn't going to cut it for an "ace." That means he's getting taken out of games way too early and throwing too many pitches to get deep into games. 2) He needs to start throwing a 3rd pitch to keep hitters off balance. Fangraphs lists his faseball being thrown 60% of the time, slider 17%, curveball 19% and changeup 4.5%. I lump together both the curve and slider as they're both breaking pitches (yes, I understand they have different movements and speeds), but I believe he needs to bump up that changeup percentage to around 8-10%. I think he would catch a few more guys looking and they'd have that extra pitch in the back of their minds. Plus, from what I've seen of his changeup, it's a pretty darn good pitch.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've been saying it all year. Yo is a #2 and Wolf is a #4- at least on a contending team. So Brewers rotation is a 2,4, and then a bunch of 5s. That's not to say Yo can't develop into an ace, he's just not there yet. As far as shutting him down, it really depends on his arm. If he is hurt or even has a tired arm, he should be shut down immediately. Otherwise, get the innings in.

[Patrick425]

If he is hiding an injury or not telling the club that he's not feeling good, I would really have to question his judgement. The Brewers are out of the race and he is under contract through 2015. How could he, or the team, possibly benefit by trying to pitch through or hiding an injury?

[Baldkin]

I've been saying it all year. Yo is a #2 and Wolf is a #4- at least on a contending team. So Brewers rotation is a 2,4, and then a bunch of 5s. That's not to say Yo can't develop into an ace, he's just not there yet. As far as shutting him down, it really depends on his arm. If he is hurt or even has a tired arm, he should be shut down immediately. Otherwise, get the innings in.

Once again, from the Fangraphs article:

Yovani Gallardo is one of four National League starting pitchers with a sub-3 FIP

After last night, he just barely inched over 3, to 3.05. He is 4th in the league in FIP. You may not value FIP, but his ERA is almost a run higher than his FIP because of the Brewers terrible defense. His BABIP against is .344. It was under.300 for his career before this season.

Maybe he doesn't throw enough strikes, but, really, can you blame the guy for trying to strike everyone out on this team?

[monty57]

I had thought the same thing about shutting Yo down until I looked at innings pitched. As long as he is not injured, he needs to keep starting. First, it will probably help him more to work through his "slump" than to be shut down and have to think about it all offseason. Second, building up his innings this season should help him get through more innings next year, when hopefully the September games will be more meaningful.

 

That said, if he is injured, then there is no question he should be shut down. This is no time to be a hero, and if there is any warnings of injury, he needs to be shelved.

[Ennder]

Gallardo has shown without a doubt that he is a true #1 this year. Just because he is tiring some late in the year doesn't suddenly change the rest of the season. He still has the 8th best xFIP in baseball on the year, if that isn't a #1 your expectations are just set way too high.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's not going to get close to 200 IP. He needs to work through this, not sit through this. In the long run, it may make him better. I think Macha needs a quicker hook with him though especially with the expanded rosters.

[topper09er]

There were stretches this year when he led the league in Ks and he currently leads in NL (remember including Halladay, Jimenez, Lincecum, Wainwright etc.) in K/9. Leading in those categories is basically the definition of an ace.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've been saying it all year. Yo is a #2 and Wolf is a #4- at least on a contending team. So Brewers rotation is a 2,4, and then a bunch of 5s. That's not to say Yo can't develop into an ace, he's just not there yet. As far as shutting him down, it really depends on his arm. If he is hurt or even has a tired arm, he should be shut down immediately. Otherwise, get the innings in.

Once again, from the Fangraphs article:

Yovani Gallardo is one of four National League starting pitchers with a sub-3 FIP

After last night, he just barely inched over 3, to 3.05. He is 4th in the league in FIP. You may not value FIP, but his ERA is almost a run higher than his FIP because of the Brewers terrible defense. His BABIP against is .344. It was under.300 for his career before this season.

Maybe he doesn't throw enough strikes, but, really, can you blame the guy for trying to strike everyone out on this team?

I value FIP, WHIP, SO/BB, all stats are relevant. But I'll throw one one everyone hates- Quality Starts. Yo's QS% is only 50%. There are 26 pitchers in the NL alone over 60%, 10 of them over 75%! I know, I know, QS stat is flawed and open to debate. But it does tell us how many times a SP "did their job." I don't look at this stat, or any stat, in a vacuum. But what I like about QS is that it factors in each individual start and tells you roughly how many starts Yo pitched "well enough to win."

 

In other words, an ace not only pitches lights out in plenty of games, he also minimizes the damge ingames he's "off." Yo has simply been lights out at times, but when he isn't it's hard for him to hang in there and gut out a decent start.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yo's QS% is only 50%. There are 26 pitchers in the NL alone over 60%, 10 of them over 75%!

 

You don't think a very poor defense behind a pitcher can lead to more baserunners, pitches, and shorter outings?

[mletto157]

I agree with Baldkin & Ennder. I think a lot of you are confusing bad pitching with our bad defense. This year Yovani has silenced critics in my opinion. He has proven that he can be a true ace. As our defense improves over the next few years (hopefully) his numbers will improve with it - including him going deeper into games.

[MJLiverock]

So the defense was just fine for the first half of the season for Gallardo and just now over his last 7 starts have started to play bad? I thought the bad defense was always the excuse for Parra?

 

Gallardo got shelled in a few of his starts raising his ERA over a point. I don't think the defense caused him to start giving up HR's and walking guys. He gave up some rockets in last nights game as well. From August 8th on he hasn't looked the same. Some may be mean reversion but he is getting hit harder and walking more guys.

[dadofandrew]

Yo has been a victim of his location and bad luck, a .400+ BAbip. He's at 150 innings, a very low amount. His velocity is fine, and he's striking out tons. He may be having a Manny Parra like problem deciding when to use his curve and change, but overall, good pitchers are not always lights out...Cliff Lee has lost several in a row, or at least the Rangers have when he's started.

 

That high blooper down the LF line was almost Joey Votto's first infield pop-up of the season. Instead, it was a double. Over 5 innings, a couple bad breaks can easily be the difference between 2 runs and 5. Yo should look at this last month as a perfect time to work on his control and change-up.

 

Also, considering the Brewers are -5 UZR/150 as a team this season, the "poor" defense has been vastly overstated. The irony here is, while it's easy to blame the defense, whenever a defense first player like Escobar or Gomez come along, they are criticized. Apparently, good defense is only desired with guys that can hit like Braun. Heh.

[endaround]

The irony is that neither Gomez or Escobar have been very good defensively and in fact were significantly worse than those they replaced despite being called defensive specialists.