Mark A: Fix Brewers Pitching... who goes?

[monty57]

Tom Hardricourt recently wrote an interesting article "Attanasio's priority: Fix Brewers' Pitching." From the article:

In other words, the Brewers probably will look to trade first baseman Prince Fielder, who can be a free agent after the 2011 season. Another regular player might have to go, too, because one starting pitcher isn't going to solve the problem.

 

I know there are a number of ways to address the pitching problem, but if someone other than Fielder is traded, who would it be? I don't see Hart getting traded after just signing a new deal. Cain, Escobar and Lucroy should be safe. I doubt Braun's going anywhere. Gomez won't bring anything back. That pretty much leaves Weeks and McGehee from the MLB roster. I guess my preference (if this is indeed true) would be to make an early offer to try to extend Weeks. If he won't extend, then he should definitely be shopped. If he does extend, then I would shop McGehee, replace him with Gamel at third and make a big push for Dunn in the offseason, with Konerko the consolation prize if we can't get Dunn.

 

Then the question becomes whether Weeks or McGehee alone would bring MLB pitching help. Weeks has finally started to show the talent that got him selected #2 overall, but he only has one year of control left. Casey's now put up back-to-back solid seasons, and is still in his pre-arby years, but still has his skeptics. If there are questions about whether Prince could bring back a good, young starter, what would Weeks or Casey bring?

[Kelbysdaddy]

i think prince is as good as gone. texas is probably the best fit and if the brewers dont get crash davis in the deal, i dont see why they wouldnt, i'd love to see konerko signed. mcgehee could be a good piece to move. although i really dont see the return being worth it but atlanta could be a good fit for him if chipper retires. both deals could get the pitching needed as both teams are pretty well off as far young, team controlled pitching goes. texas might be a little scorned if milwaukee guns for cliff lee though, which they definatly should.

[Never Outhustled]

I agree that dealing Prince and McGehee is the way to go, but I don't like the idea of spending big money on an over-aged poor defensive 1B. This team needs to get better defensively. That will help stretch out the pitching. Let Dickerson start. With a seasons worth of playing time, he's been worth over 3 WAR. Maybe find him a platoon partner. Konerko or Dunn are not $10 million a year better than Dickerson when you compare their total game and project age regression.

 

Don't ignore Toronto as a trade partner for Prince. Their new GM has been very aggressive, and there deep in quality starting pitching. They get Dustin McGowan back next year too. Overbay is a FA, and they have no one to replace him.

 

The team has soured on FA pitchers, but they should pursue Tim Hudson. He's throwing as hard as he ever has, he's dominant, and he has a positive history with Rick Peterson.

[Invader3K]

You want Dickerson to start at 1B? I really can't see that happening.

 

I kind of like the idea of Hudson, as long as it isn't a long term contract.

[Baldkin]

I'd assume Hart to 1B, and Dickerson in RF.... as Dickerson is an above average defensive OF.

 

The more I think about it, the more likely it seems that Gamel or McGehee are going to be moved this off season. The return for either of them + Prince would leave quite a bit of money available to spend on a free agent to fill either RF or 1B.

Heck, bring back Bill Hall and platoon him with Dickerson and move Hart to 1B.

[Invader3K]

OK, yeah, moving Hart would make more sense. Didn't think of that earlier.

 

Let's leave Bill Hall in the past as far as the Brewers though, please!

[Never Outhustled]

You want Dickerson to start at 1B? I really can't see that happening.

 

 

No, sorry I didn't explain that. Dickerson in the OF, with Braun or Hart at 1B. Get better defensively at 2 positions.

 

 

Edit: I see this questioned was already answered.

 

As for a platoon guy for Dickerson, my choice is Reed Johnson. Believe it or not, he kills lefties. He has an OPS over 900 versus southpaws 3 of the last 4 years. He makes just $800 K this year, and is a sound defender. I think he'd jump at a $1 million Brewers offer, and a chance to get about 55 starts minimum.

[tyguy20204]

I'm pretty sure Hudson signed a 3-year contract extension with the Braves. So he's out of the picture.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm pretty sure Hudson signed a 3-year contract extension with the Braves. So he's out of the picture.

 

Your right, Cots didn't have it listed earlier, but they finally updated it. I guess it happened awhile ago.

[Invader3K]

Good catch on Hudson being extended.

 

Here's the list of potential SP Free Agents from MLB Trade Rumors:

 

Bronson Arroyo (34) - $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Erik Bedard (32) - $8MM mutual option

Jeremy Bonderman (28)

Dave Bush (31)

Jose Contreras (39)

Kevin Correia (30)

Doug Davis (35) - $6.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (30)

Justin Duchscherer (33)

Shawn Estes (38)

Josh Fogg (34)

Jeff Francis (29) - $7MM club option

Freddy Garcia (35)

Jon Garland (31) - $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout

Rich Harden (29) - $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

Aaron Harang (33) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Hiroki Kuroda (36)

Cliff Lee (32)

Ted Lilly (35)

Rodrigo Lopez (35)

Kevin Millwood (36)

Sergio Mitre (30)

Brian Moehler (39)

Jamie Moyer (48)

Vicente Padilla (33)

Carl Pavano (35)

Brad Penny (33)

Andy Pettitte (39)

Nate Robertson (33)

Ben Sheets (32)

Jeff Suppan (36) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Brett Tomko (38)

Koji Uehara (36)

Javier Vazquez (34)

Brandon Webb (32)

Todd Wellemeyer (32)

Jake Westbrook (33)

Dontrelle Willis (29)

Chris Young (32) - $8.5MM club option

[monty57]

I guess I just worry that our offense would take a significant hit if we lose both Prince & Casey. We'll have offensive question marks with Lucroy, Escobar and Cain and Gamel will essentially be a rookie. Even if Gamel matches what Casey's doing (which is far from a given), the dropoff from Prince to Dickerson/Platoon partner would be pretty steep. I expect the increase from Braun to offset the regression from Hart, so I look at them as a wash. One good thing is that money is not a big worry next year, so a more proven MLB bat at 1B would make me more comfortable, although I do get your point about defense.

 

Weeks is the wildcard. I hope they're able to extend him, but do you trade him if he won't extend? I'd have to think that barring injury he will be a Type A free agent after the year. I guess it depends on the potential return and if you think Lawrie would be MLB ready at some point in 2011. If Rickie would return a young SP, we could alway sign a vet 2B (or re-up Counsell) who could be replaced by Lawrie after a couple months if necessary.

[Invader3K]

In my mind, Prince will be traded, and they'll get a quality SP for him. If you trade Gamel or McGehee, they'd better get a quality guy for him. Not just a middling bottom of the rotation type. But if you can get a high upside SP for one of them, I think you have to pull the trigger. We really only have Gallardo and Wolf as locks for the rotation next season.

[Gobias Industries]

-I like the idea of trading McGehee to the Rays for Shields.

-Fielder to whoever for some prospects. Melvin may have made a crucial mistake not getting a deal done at the deadline with the glut of FA 1B available.

-Gamel to 1B.

-Sign Beltre to play 3b. He's obviously had a great year so I'm assuming he'll opt out. I'd rather give a good position player a 3 yr deal than a middling SP.

-Sign Vazquez or maybe Bonderman to a 1 yr deal with a team option.

 

That gives us a rotation of:

Gallardo

Shields

Vazquez/Bonderman

Wolf

Narveson/Rivas/Butler

[jerichoholicninja]

Texas or Toronto is probably the best places for Prince to go with the Crew getting something worth it in return. Texas just traded their top 1B guy and I don't think they really see Davis as much of anything anymore. The new ownership wants to spend so they could possibly lock Fielder up for a while too. Most importantly they have pitching to spare.

 

Toronto has been very aggressive in moving players. Fielder is obviously an upgrade over Overbay, however, I think they would like to move Lind to first but they also have the option of a DH. They also have pitching to spare.

[Sage]

Here's my thought. Dunno if this would happen, but Kenny Williams is a pretty desperate GM when he needs to be, and he needs a lefty power bat in that lineup. So, here's what I would do:

 

- Trade Fielder to the White Sox for John Danks and Dayan Viciedo

- (If his option is declined) Sign Chris Young to a cheap risk-reward type of deal (maybe a $5 mil base salary with incentives).

- Hart to 1B, Dickerson in RF.

 

Rotation:

1) Yovani Gallardo

2) John Danks

3) Chris Young

4) Randy Wolf

5) Amaury Rivas

 

Needless to say, a big improvement over the current rotation. We improve defense in RF and at 1B, and we keep a lefty in the lineup with Dickerson. Option to trade Casey at the deadline, depending.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't see any reason why the White Sox would give Danks for one season of Prince, let alone Viciedo with him. Danks is still under team control for three seasons. So, while he'll be getting more expensive, he still has a ton of value.

 

To me, the obvious candidates to be dealt are Prince & Casey. I hope both are moved this offseason.

[paul253]

I don't like the idea of trading both him and McGehee in the same offseason. You'd be taking a huge chunk of your offense away and replacing it with a bunch of unproven guys. Plus I just can't see McGehee getting all that much in return. I think he's more valuable to us. I say move Hart to first and let Gamel play right with Cain in center, Gomez in AAA until he learns how to get on base. That leaves Fielder to help bring back pitching. I also wouldn't mind a prospect for prospect trade involving Lawrie, though I realize those aren't very common. One player I'd love to get is Pineda.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Trade Fielder in the offseason for pitching. Then trade McGehee at the deadline when Lawrie is ready for more pitching. Gamel at 1b, Lawrie at 3b.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Here's my thought. Dunno if this would happen, but Kenny Williams is a pretty desperate GM when he needs to be, and he needs a lefty power bat in that lineup. So, here's what I would do:

 

- Trade Fielder to the White Sox for John Danks and Dayan Viciedo

- (If his option is declined) Sign Chris Young to a cheap risk-reward type of deal (maybe a $5 mil base salary with incentives).

- Hart to 1B, Dickerson in RF.

 

Rotation:

1) Yovani Gallardo

2) John Danks

3) Chris Young

4) Randy Wolf

5) Amaury Rivas

 

Needless to say, a big improvement over the current rotation. We improve defense in RF and at 1B, and we keep a lefty in the lineup with Dickerson. Option to trade Casey at the deadline, depending.

what do you plan on doing with viciedo then? hes mlb ready and, in my opinion, a much better option at first then hart. i'm a big fan of that kid but i dont think danks/viciedo is enough for prince because danks already has a good amount of service time in.

 

[uwisfan]

I think it will be Prince and whichever of Gamel/McGehee nets more in pitching. McGehee gives the club a proven bat and probably better defense, while Gamel is younger with more upside and a lefty.. 2 of those 3 should be gone, but it depends on how the other clubs value them.

 

Lawrie is an interesting trading chip as well. I could see the Crew extending Weeks and flipping Lawrie for a nice arm.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers need to be careful and not overreact by focusing only on trades. Trades carry with them as much or more risk than signing FA. The failures in the FA market the last couple seasons weren't because it was necessarily bad strategy. It was a combination of going after the wrong guys (Wolf instead of Pineiro and Davis instead of Garland for instance) and some bad luck.

 

In recent years, the Brewers have reacted to the wrong things. Last year, the issue was "starting pitching depth", so they focused on numbers. They should have focused on quality. They also reacted to failures by ex-Cardinals Suppan and Looper by ignoring Pineiro because he too had success as a Cardinal.

 

I'm very leery every time Attanasio raises an issue. He generally misses the point. It was who Melvin signed, not that he signed guys rather than trading for guys. If they do start trading, it's who they get that's important, not how they got them.

 

Attanasio needs to focus on whether or not Melvin is doing the job. That should be the extent of his involvement. He shouldn't be setting baseball strategy.

[fleehaw]

Fielder plus their '11 salary differential to the Rays for Matt Garza

McGehee and a prospect like Lasker to the Marlins for Nolasco and Helms (if he's not a FA)

 

2b-Weeks

CF-Cain

LF-Braun

3B-Gamel

1B-Hart

RF-Dickerson/Katin

SS-Escobar

C-Lucroy

Bench: Katin, Inglett, Helms, Counsell, & Kotaras

Rotation: Gallardo, Garza, Wolf, Nolasco, Parra/Narveson

Bullpen: Parra/Narveson, Axford, Hawkins, Braddock, Coffey, Loe, & ....

[thebruce44]

I honestly think an outfield platoon of Dickerson/whoever has real potential to outperform what Hart would do next season in RF.

[Sage]

Here's my thought. Dunno if this would happen, but Kenny Williams is a pretty desperate GM when he needs to be, and he needs a lefty power bat in that lineup. So, here's what I would do:

 

- Trade Fielder to the White Sox for John Danks and Dayan Viciedo

- (If his option is declined) Sign Chris Young to a cheap risk-reward type of deal (maybe a $5 mil base salary with incentives).

- Hart to 1B, Dickerson in RF.

 

Rotation:

1) Yovani Gallardo

2) John Danks

3) Chris Young

4) Randy Wolf

5) Amaury Rivas

 

Needless to say, a big improvement over the current rotation. We improve defense in RF and at 1B, and we keep a lefty in the lineup with Dickerson. Option to trade Casey at the deadline, depending.

what do you plan on doing with viciedo then? hes mlb ready and, in my opinion, a much better option at first then hart. i'm a big fan of that kid but i dont think danks/viciedo is enough for prince because danks already has a good amount of service time in.

First off, Dank's amount of service time doesn't make him worth less... he'd easily be the second best pitcher on our staff, you could even name him co-ace with Yovani. As for Viciedo, what makes him Major League ready? He wasn't all that impressive in 82 PA this season in the Majors. .268/.268/.451 line, with 19.5% K rate, and a 0.0% BB rate. In a Danks/Viciedo deal, I would put Viciedo in the minors (where he belongs) to work on his patience at the plate before I would bring him up. How is a guy with 82 PA in the Major Leagues a "much better option at first" than Hart?

TooLiveBrew, that's why I said "Dunno if this would happen." It's really just wishful thinking on my part. If a deal with the White Sox went down, we'd be more likely to get Gavin Floyd than John Danks (not that I would be upset with getting Floyd).

[monty57]

I honestly think an outfield platoon of Dickerson/whoever has real potential to outperform what Hart would do next season in RF.

But that's not necessarily a good thing. Hart could be .750 OPS with Dickerson/platoon-mate at .760, in which case

 

2b-Weeks

CF-Cain

LF-Braun

3B-Gamel

1B-Hart

RF-Dickerson/Katin

SS-Escobar

C-Lucroy

 

Looks like a pretty poor offense.