Brewer's catching- - hopes? reality?

[MJLiverock]

Lucroy has not been good offensively this year. He is still a rookie and I have hope for him but statistically he has not been impressive. He and Kottaras each have just over 200 PA's and the difference between them isn't all that great other than batting average and a complete lack of power from Lucroy.

 

Kottaras .208/.319/.427 for an OPS of .746

Lucroy .274/.313/.371/ for an OPS of .683

Kendall .258/.320/.299/ for an OPS of .619 for comparison this year

Estrada .278/.296/.403 for an OPS of .699 as a Brewer.

 

Kottaras has a BABIP of .212 the lowest of any NL catcher with 200 PA's by quite a ways. Lucroy is at .309 which is middle to slightly above.

 

Lucroy is 14/20 in wOBA, Kottaras is 10th, both are below average.

 

Kottaras is a butcher defensively; Lucroy I am unsure on, other than I think his better than Kottaras.

 

What is the feeling on Lucroy's upside? Can he get on base enough to offset the low power like a young Kendall or will he continue to be Johnny Estrada v2.0? His walk rate is even lower than whipping boy Carlos Gomez. Until Lucroy's improved August his stat line was remarkably like Gomez.

[dlk9s]

Lucroy is fine. He seems to be a good defensive catcher. I would be very happy if he could keep hitting in the .270's or so. I have a feeling his OBP will improve with experience, particularly because I doubt pitchers are trying to pitch around him at all. If they throw him strikes, he is going to swing. I do see that he swings at pitches outside the strike zone quite a bit more than the league average, but again, I think this will improve with time - he's only played in 52 games. He actually makes contact more frequently than the league average, regardless of whether or not the pitch is a strike.

 

Bottom line, he seems to have a good head on his shoulders and to me, looks to be a player who will develop into a solid catcher. Remember, guys like Mauer and Piazza are not the norm.

[Baldkin]

We've got a backup catcher with a .746 OPS who is better defensively than either of our previous two starting catchers.

 

I guess I'm not quite sure what there is to complain about, other than Lucroy not taking enough BB's.

[rwa12]

If he handles the staff well, I'm fine with average production. I expect his offensive performance to improve slightly as he gets more comfortable with the staff. Able to focus his attention elsewhere and such.

[Invader3K]

We should remember that Lucroy is only 24 as well. He doesn't seem to waste too many ABs (31 K's in just under 200 ABs isn't horrible) and I think will develop better patience at the plate as he matures. I don't think you can compare him to Gomez offensively, who just seems to go up there and hack at everything.

 

As far as Kottaras, I don't think you can ask much more from a backup catcher. If anything, I hope he improves defensively.

 

Overall I'm pretty happy with the Brewers' current catching battery. A couple years ago, most would have figured that Angel Salome was the future behind the dish for the Crew. It's nice to see that even though Salome has faltered somewhat in the minors, Melvin isn't relying on aging and rather expensive veterans anymore.

[JohnBriggs12]

We've got a backup catcher with a .746 OPS who is better defensively than either of our previous two starting catchers.

 

I guess I'm not quite sure what there is to complain about, other than Lucroy not taking enough BB's.

It's hard for most 8th place hitters to take a lot walks. Pitchers do not generally nibble against 8th place hitters even with the pitcher behind them. By definition, 8th place hitters are the weakest in the lineup. Pitchers go right after them early in counts because usually their mistakes don't end up over the wall.. If the hitter takes early in counts he almost always gets behind.

[MJLiverock]

I just want to add I didn't start this thread because I want to get rid of Lucroy or anything, I fully agree he is young and probably arrived a year earlier than expected. I had been looking at his stats after reading a few posts here and there about how good he has been and how poor Kottaras has been and when looking I wouldn't say there has been a big difference between them.

 

Lucroy will probably always carry a higher average than Kottaras but his lack of power is what I remember from watching him play, which reminded me of Kendall. His low walk rate reminded me of Estrada who also "put the ball in play" a lot. Estrada actually k'd even less.

 

Lucroy's not a big guy and his ISO numbers from the minors didn't look all that strong either. He isn't going to be a HR hitter and that is fine on this team as it is now but a little pop in the bat would be nice. I know it is way too early to worry about his production, especially given the Brewer's catching history but I am willing to wait on declaring him to be anything more than average for upside for a catcher.

[endaround]

It takes about 1/2 a season usually for a player to adjust to MLB. The big positive with Lucroy is that his BB% has been increasing every month 4.5% in June, 4.9% in July to 5.6% in August. It isn't a huge improvement but its going in the right direction.

[dlk9s]

I don't see anything wrong with the HR pace Lucroy is on. Projected over a full season (although obviously as a catcher, he won't play a "full" season), he would hit double digits. And he's barely sniffed the majors so far.

[dadofandrew]

If Lucroy was not a C, I'd have doubts. However, as a catcher with a good arm, who has improved to "below average, but passable" on other defense, the bar is pretty low to have a nice career. If he can get up to .330/.400, about a 5-7% improvement, he's well above MLB average for a backstop, which is right about .320/.380. To be honest, if you take out the top 5, the average probably sits right about .300/.365.

 

As a 24 year-old, if he keeps getting better as you'd expect, he is probably the catcher in MIL for his time under team control, which is '16. Catcher is such an offensive black hole, that's why many of us were so excited about Salome's .350/.450 potential, but alas, he must conquer his inner demons before we speak of that again.

[MJLiverock]

I agree dadofandrew, I think your post sums it up pretty well. I really have no opinion on Lucroy's defense but that may be a good thing, he doesn't stand out as awful or excellect to my limited and untrained observation. He is probably the C in Milwaukee for his controlled years and I have no problem with not having to go out and sign an aged vet for multi millions to not necessarily be a whole lot better. If he could improve to the numbers in paragraph one I would be pretty darned happy.

[Funketown]

Lucroy's fine, and Kottaras is a fine backup. Lucroy's walk rate in AA in 2009 was around 15%, so I'm hoping he'll take some more walks as he gets more comfortable in the majors (is it just me, or are guys often less patient when they first break into the majors? I haven't read into it, but it sure seems like a lot of guys try to prove they can hit once they get to the majors).

[Warning Track Power]

While I am not happy about the overall underachieving 2010 version of the Milwaukee Brewers, I am excited about the future Milwaukee Brewers and the MLB training that Lucroy, Cain and Escobar have been able to receive in 2010. The on the job training they have received this season will hopefully pay dividends in the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons when Braun, Hart and a hopefully resigned Weeks will be getting near the end of their prime seasons.

[joepepsi]

There are two kinds of young players who have crappy OBA. Guys like Gomez who have never shown much plate discipline, and guys like Lucroy who are just getting started in their major league careers and going through some adjustment. Lucroy has a career .377 oba in the minors, 80 points above his career batting average. I think it's reasonable to expect at least a .340-.350 oba in 2011 or 2012. His minor league slugging is .460, so I expect once he gets going with his career he'll be at least around .425-.440 most seasons.

 

Remember, guys like Mauer and Piazza are not the norm.

I don't even want a catcher like that, although admittedly those two are awesome. But unless they can DH once or twice a week you end up overpaying for a guy who's going to sit out 30-40 games a year. I think Lucroy can be more of an AJ Piercynski type. I'm OK with that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the Brewers are going to be pretty strong at catcher for the next 3-ish seasons. Solid production at a very cheap price. And I love the LH/RH combo -- I think this duo can really give the Brewers an edge at catcher over the vast majority of teams.

[jackalope02ca]

I also think we are set at catcher for the next several years. Catching is a Defense 1st position. The fact Lucroy can hit for a decent average is a bonus. I'm more concerned with how they are defensively and if the pitchers are comfortable throwing to them than if they hit their weight.

[strawbossisevil]

As some have pointed out, to call Lucroy "not good" offensively, isn't looking at the whole picture.

 

He's putting up numbers that are pretty close to league average for catchers. He's young, as well, and we are very likely to see better things out of him both offensively and defensively going forward.

 

I don't really understanding the reason for complaining.

 

Lucroy was somewhat rushed to the majors. Expecting him to be an all star right off the bat was unrealistic. I assumed an OPS around .700, and so far that's basically what he's accomplished.

 

Comparing his power to Kendell is ridiculous. He has 4 HR this season already. There were a number of seasons where Kendell would play every day and not reach that number. He definitely projects to be a guy who could put up double digit HR totals year in and year out. That is not something to sneeze at coming from the Catcher position.

[Warning Track Power]

Catching is a Defense 1st position. The fact Lucroy can hit for a decent average is a bonus. I'm more concerned with how they are defensively and if the pitchers are comfortable throwing to them than if they hit their weight.

I couldn't agree more. I know the Angels are struggling this year but Jeff Mathis is a beast behind the plate. He is barely hitting above .200 and they have Mike Napoli who is a legit 30 HR threat and Mathis plays behind the plate more. Granted Napoli has gotten a lot of time at 1B since Morales' injury, but even in years past Mathis has played extensively because of his defensive prowess and ability to call a good game behind the plate. I am fine with Lucroy's offense even at the level it is at right now given his continued development defensively.

 

 

[BrewCrewForever]

I will take Lucroy and Kottaras over Kendall, Rivera and Estrada any day. Kottaras is not very good behind the plate, but he is the backup and if he can hit for some pop and take walks he will be fine catching twice a week.

 

Lucroy is pretty darn good on defense, needs to get a little better at blocking balls but he can throw guys out which is nice. At the plate, I really like what he has done and his approach. He just has to walk more, which hopefully he will with experience.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Let's not overlook the fact that Lucroy's only 2 seasons removed from hitting 20 HR's in 2008 split between West VA and Brevard.

 

That's a good bit of power at that age. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 12-15 HR's in 400 PA's in a given year, even as early as next year.

[MNBrew]

Lucroy hasn't hit for a lot of power and he needs to walk a little more. But to say he's not good offensively is ridiculous.

 

Not every catcher's going to hit like Johnny Bench, Joe Mauer, Pudge (Fisk or Rodriguez), or Posada. In fact, most aren't. But lacking an All-Star behind the plate, what Lucroy brings I'll take every day of the week without question.

[kramnoj]

But to say he's not good offensively is ridiculous.

 

No, it's an accurate description of how he's done so far in his major league career.

 

Per ESPN there are 36 catchers with 200 PA or more. Lucroy's OPS is 21st (for full disclosure, the catcher ranked 20th has and OPS 1 point higher). So of those catchers, he's middle of the pack. Around average. Average being less than good.

 

That doesn't mean that's what he's going to be in his career. His minor league career indicates he will walk more. He doesn't look to have prodigious power, but he should be ok.

 

I'll be optimistic and believe that the Brewers are set at catcher for the next 6 years and Kotteras should be a nice backup for a couple of years as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'll live with his .270ish average for now. Sure I would like to see more power and walks, but that will come. I've watched most of his ABs, and he's not a free swinger at all. In fact, he's one of the most disciplined hitters in the line-up. The problem is, looking up and down the Brewers line-up, Lucroy is the guy pitchers are going to go after. It's hard to walk when pitchers are giving you pitches to hit almost every AB.

 

Lucroy has some pop, and let him hit a few more HRs and pitchers will start nibbling more, and his walks will go up.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's all perspective. If you expected him to be the next Joe Mauer, IRod or Johnny Bench, you'd be disappointed. But those guys are once in a generation types. If you thought he has a chance to be a slightly above average major league catcher, then he's right on target. He's never going to be a 30 HR guy or a .320 hitter. If he can hit .275 and settle in the 15 HR a year range, that's pretty good production. Toss in a respectable caught stealing percentage around 30% and you have yourself a good major league starting catcher for the next 5-6 years.

[WV Brew]

This is an area of need for the Brewers. I'm not convinced that Kotteras is any kind of answer. There is nobody at AAA or AA who is a genuine prospect. Zarraga (44th round, 2006) can hit some (.279/.380/.373/.753) but catching seems to be a weakness? Often plays DH. Garfield is only 19 and may improve but (.243/.284/.317/.601) has been terrible at the plate this year. Rafael Neda (10th round, 2010) could be a fast mover but nobody can say just yet. Tyler Roberts could be a factor down the road but is repeating Arizona this year. There are a lot of question marks and it might be wise to look for FA's in the off season if they can improve on Kotteras. They are one Lucroy injury away from a disaster right now.