Can pitch-tracking data even study this?

[bjkrautk]

Something that's been stewing in my head, that I lack the time (or know-how) to test.

 

Hypothesis: The larger the average distance - from where the pitcher's strikes cross the plate, to the center of the strike zone - the more effective the pitcher.

 

Theory: In short: it's the Parra Principle...that the velocity of his fastball isn't what makes it ineffective, but his inability to pitch inside or outside, elevate the ball or keep it down.

 

It also recognizes that pitchers with dominant 'out' pitches usually induce swinging strikes that are nowhere near the zone. (In all the time I remember Francisco Cordero as the Brewers closer, I rarely recall him throwing the slider for called strikes...but with 2 strikes, defensive hitters flailed away at it. His blown saves usually came when 1-2 hitters would lay off the slider and draw walks. Turnbow was much the same, except hitters figured him out and he could never make the adjustments.)

 

It's also a way to chip away at (what I believe to be) the myth that pitchers can't control anything other than strikeouts, home runs, and walks. While a "pitcher's pitch" can still end up being hit off the foul pole, a pitcher's ability to deliver on a game plan - to put the ball where it is supposed to cross the plate - affects both the defensive positioning and the pitcher's effectiveness in a given situation.

 

I'm willing to accept that the geometric center of the strike zone may not be the perfect focal point for the analysis (since the high strike call is a rarity...I would actually guess that the real center point should be somewhere lower), but it is at least a starting point. There may also need to be some standardization, since not every hitters' strike zone should be identical. It is something I am almost as curious if it is possible to measure, with all the pitch tracking data that we have now, as I would be curious about the result.

[rluzinski]

There's no question that location has a significant effect on the outcome on a subsequent ball in play. Pitchers DO have an effect. It's just that many other factors come into play (batter skill, defensive skill). Over a only a season's worth of stats, BABIP doesn't tell you much. If however, you are talking about a 10 year vet, I'd trust BABIP a heck of a lot more.