Lineup Ready to Compete?

[Warning Track Power]

I've been contemplating this since Cain and Lucroy have become the regulars at CF and C and since Dickerson was acquired. Assuming we enter into the next few seasons with the lineup situated as it is currently with:

 

These 7 regulars:

OF: Braun, Hart, Cain

IF: Weeks, Escobar, McGehee

C: Lucroy

 

These 4 bench players:

OF: Dickerson, Gomez

IF: Inglett

C: Kottaras

 

Are you comfortable that this lineup will allow us to be legitimate competitors into the future assuming a rotation can be filled out around Gallardo? You will notice I have not filled the 1B position as I do not believe we know who will fill this hole (Braun, Hart, Gamel or Lawrie) but the question really focuses on the lack of having Fielder in the lineup and whether or not his absence will affect the productivity of Braun, Hart and McGehee especially.

 

I know there are obviously a lot of moving parts, but I am quietly confident that this group will be able to produce enough offense that even a league average pitching staff will allow the Brewers to compete for the Division for the foreseeable future.

[Baldkin]

It will only effect them in the sense that you're taking a .400 OBP guy out of the lineup. Braun is having by far the worst year of his career, even with Prince still here. The offense will take a hit, but there's no way our CF and SS production is as bad next year as it has been this year. Those two up ticks will fill the gap between any drop in 1B production.

[reillymcshane]

Gamel at 1B. It's a risk, but you need pitching, and with Fielder only here one year away from free agency - and unlikely to resign - he's the trade bait.

[BrewCrewForever]

If they improve the pitching, they can easily compete with this lineup. And I'm all in with Gamel at 1B next season. He won't totally replace Prince of course, but he should be good at the plate and could be better with the glove.

 

I would also think that Escobar, Cain and Lucroy will all progress and Braun should get back to his career averages. I really believe the elbow and then wrist injury have hampered him a bit this season. Just as the lower back thing did for the last few months of 2008. Let's just hope Hart and Weeks are right around where they are this season or close.

 

But it all comes down to pitching, this team even without Prince should score runs, but they have to prevent them as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

It will all come down to what they get for Fielder. It won't take much to improve on Parra, but they have more arms than him to replace and it will take more than a deal of Fielder to replace all of them. On the other hand, they are 37-31 since June 5th after making their "in season" improvements this year (Axford, Loe, Braddock added), (Suppan, Davis, Hawkins subtracted). Gamel's hot stick the last 6 weeks is encouraging, but he still has no major league track record, so he's definitely a wild card. He's going to be under a microscope if he replaces Fielder. At least Dickerson gives them a "plan B" option too, with him in right and Hart to first.

[monty57]

It will only effect them in the sense that you're taking a .400 OBP guy out of the lineup. Braun is having by far the worst year of his career, even with Prince still here. The offense will take a hit, but there's no way our CF and SS production is as bad next year as it has been this year. Those two up ticks will fill the gap between any drop in 1B production.

If I'm reading ESPN's 2010 stats correctly,

 

Braun batting #3 ahead of Fielder: .933 OPS in 328 AB

Braun batting #4 behind Fielder: .658 OPS in 136 AB

 

I know somebody, somewhere "proved" that protection is a myth, but I think Prince will be missed more than some give him credit for. I really hope Gamel steps up to the plate (I know, bad metaphore) and performs if given the chance. Personally, I think the Hart extension could come back to hurt us. I'd rather have seen him traded for pitching, Gamel take RF, and make a push for someone like Dunn or Konerko to fill the Fielder void. Over the next 3-4 years, I'd guess that Gamel will replicate or exceed what Hart will do, but neither will come close to Fielder's offensive production.

 

We are going to need to see vast improvements by Escobar (.645 OPS) and Lucroy (.668 OPS). Cain will need to continue to hit the way he is (.836 OPS) in order to replace the .843 OPS Jim Edmonds gave us this year. Braun's improvement will need to at least offset the regression we're likely to see from Hart (Braun is currently .082 OPS points below his career, while Hart is currently .070 above his). McGehee and Weeks will need to continue their solid offense for the whole season. We'll lose some offense when our pitchers come back to reality and start hitting like pitchers. And finally, someone (Gamel) will have to try to replace the "awful" .886 OPS production we're getting from Fielder, much of which is derived from a .405 OBP because pitchers refuse to throw to him due to his unbelieveable power. Even in his down year, Prince in 9th in MLB 1B in OPS, ahead of the likes of Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira. I love ya' Mat, good luck with the task at hand, but you're being set up for failure.

 

If we really improve our pitching (i.e. trade Fielder for someone who can be a #2ish starter and sign someone like Vazquez or trade for a top line starter), then I think we'd have a shot at the playoffs in 2011, even with the reduced offense. However, I'm guessing that if we go with what we have and plop Gamel in to replace Fielder, we'll have a pretty big dropoff in offensive production next year. Thankfully, we're dropping from a high level, so we should still have at least an average offense, and probably a little better than average. Unfortunately, a slightly above average offense mixed with below average pitching and poor defense doesn't scream playoffs to me.

 

In other words, if we're going cheap on offense, we need to spend big on pitching. Whether that's making a run at someone like Cilff Lee or trading for a salary dump top of the rotation starter (any other Dan Haren's out there?), we need to make some big splashes in the rotation if we don't want to have a pretty forgetful year in 2011.

[wibadgers23]

Yeah, I definitely think that line-up can compete next year, even if you take out Prince and add in Gamel. We basically have to replace three SP though. Parra, Narveson, and Bush all need to be replaced in the offseason if we want to even think about competing.

[Baldkin]

If I'm reading ESPN's 2010 stats correctly,

 

Braun batting #3 ahead of Fielder: .933 OPS in 328 AB

Braun batting #4 behind Fielder: .658 OPS in 136 AB

Yep, Braun has been in the #4 hole vs LHP this season. He's been absolutely horrible vs LHP this season. For some reason I think it's a change in his approach, rather than him forgetting how to hit, because Prince isn't behind him in the order.

If Braun doesn't learn to take a walk, pitchers will continue to not

throw him strikes, no matter who is hitting behind him. He may be an

amazing hitter but a .350 OBP and 8% BB rate just aren't good enough to

be considered elite. Put it this way: In Prince's worst season, 2006,

his BB% was 9.1%. Braun hasn't come close to that.

 

We're getting middle of the pack production from 1B, below average production from LF starting 3 rookies right now, who's offense will only get better and people are worried about the offense next year?

[logan82]

Braun also had most of his games in the 4 hole while he was struggling over the last 3 months.

[MJLiverock]

We're getting middle of the pack production from 1B, below average production from LF starting 3 rookies right now, who's offense will only get better and people are worried about the offense next year?

Prince's production is below last year but pretty similar to slightly better than 2008 and really pretty much average for his career. He is fourth in the league for 1B with 400 PA's in wOBA and 3rd in RC. In fact regardless of position he is 3rd in wRC or 7th in wOBA. I wouldn't call that middle of the pack.

 

Braun is having a down year by his standards and is more middle of pack ranking 6/13 in wOBA for left fielders but 3/13 in wRC.

 

Replacing Prince's bat in the lineup with say Gamel is going to result in a drop off there unless one thinks Gamel is going to put up a .400/.500/.900 line as a rookie.

 

 

There is room for improvement as you mentioned in SS, C, CF numbers. All three guys in Escobar, Gomez, and Lucroy have put up basically the same wOBA and wRC. Ranking them position wise, Lucroy ranks 14/20 for catchers with 190+ PA's in wOBA and 19/20 in wRC.

Gomez was 18/19 for CF with 250 PA's in wOBA (interestingly only ahead of Tony Gwynn, Jr.) and 19/19th in wRC (just behind TGJ). Escobar is 17/19 at SS with 250 PA's and 13/19 in wRC. Lucroy actually walks even less than Gomez who figures to be replaced hopefully by Cain to start the season.

 

The Brewers aren't without guys who are performing above expectations to offset Braun's down year and Fielder's average for him year. Hart and Weeks are both playing at levels never seen by either player for a full season. Not to mention McGehee continuing to prove doubters wrong with a respectable ranking of 6th and 4th in wOBA and wRC for 3rd baseman. Weeks and Hart have both been top 3 at their positions this year. Weeks has always been thought to have the talent to do it and remaining healthy is probably key to keeping it up for him. Hart is probably still questionable as to can he keep it up for the rest of this year and all of next.

 

I can easily see why the offense could be thought to take a step back next year without Prince. I don't think they will be the worst offense but they could drop a few notches.

 

[joepepsi]

We basically have to replace three SP though. Parra, Narveson, and Bush all need to be replaced in the offseason if we want to even think about competing.

But 2 of those starting pitchers can, in theory, be replaced with almost anyone for a net gain in the rotation. They could put almost anybody in Parra's and Narveson's roles and be better. Not good enough to be a contender I suppose, but better than what they've been getting this year. Which might make it worth it to pick up Davis' option and throw a deal to Capuano.

[monty57]

Also, Edmonds got most of the PAs in CF this season, and it's doubtful that Cain will match his offensive production for the season. Cain should add value on defense, but this is about offense.

 

While (as I said earlier), I think we'll have a decent offense next year, there are a lot of reasons for concern. Just because someone's a rookie doesn't mean they'll automatically be better next year. Hart is a big question mark, and since All-Star break he's hitting for a .770 OPS. That could just be randomness over a one month period, or it could be that his history of being extremely hot or extremely cold will continue. If we move from Prince to Gamel and Hart hits a .770 OPS next year, we're in some trouble, especially if Escobar and Lucroy don't add .100+ points to their OPS (no small task).

 

We are a top offense this year because Weeks, Hart and McGehee are having very good years, and Prince and Braun are so good that even though they're having "down" years, they're still better than most. We were also getting good production from Zaun before he got hurt and Edmonds before he was traded. I hope that Escobar and Lucroy are able to add .100 points to their OPS next year, but I don't think we can count on it. I hope Cain continues hitting over .350, but I doubt it will happen. I hope Weeks and Hart improve or maintain their career years they're having and I hope McGehee continues to play above all expectations.

 

It could happen, but I think there is reason to believe that our offense could slip, possibly considerably, next year. We're losing an anchor and replacing him with a question mark. With only one player who's capable of a .900+ OPS (Braun), we are already basing our offense on a number of "ifs."

[logan82]

I don't think it will be much of a problem to match our CF production from this year so far. Edmonds only hit .260/.316/.428/.744 as a CF this year for us and that was mostly with a platoon advantage. The Edmonds mystique is much bigger than his actual contribution.

 

CF .248/.302/.388/.690

[JohnBriggs12]

We basically have to replace three SP though. Parra, Narveson, and Bush all need to be replaced in the offseason if we want to even think about competing.

But 2 of those starting pitchers can, in theory, be replaced with almost anyone for a net gain in the rotation. They could put almost anybody in Parra's and Narveson's roles and be better. Not good enough to be a contender I suppose, but better than what they've been getting this year. Which might make it worth it to pick up Davis' option and throw a deal to Capuano.

You're kidding right? They'd be better off bringing back Braden Looper for a couple million than picking up Davis' option. As for Capuano, let's not get carried away every time he logs 3 good innings. Maybe he's worth bringing back if the price is right to compete with Narveson for a job, but starters have to get through a lineup more than one or two times and that's been his problem even going back to 2007. He's basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and change), and it's hard fooling guys 3 times in a game.

 

I still think Narveson's an adequate 5th starter, if they can bring in a number 2 and a decent number 4. He'll still be cheap and cheap guys provide flexibility. If he does fail, you move on to the next guy without hesitation. If you are paying a guy any significant amount to be your 5th starter, like you would with Davis, you end up holding on to him too long waiting to get your money's worth.