September rotation changes afoot; Latest -- Capuano replaces Parra in the rotation (reply #52)

[Diskono]

I don't think its at all outrageous to think he could start next year. If he gets a few starts in September, does well, and dominates in ST next year, its very possible he could wind up in the rotation. And if he's doing a good job, why not?

Because a twice surgically repaired elbow can't throw 200 innings.

How many innings can a surgically repaired elbow throw? Does anybody know? He'll probably be around 100 IP by the end of the season, and that's not even counting extended spring training.

[bjkrautk]

At this point, I'm kind of looking forward to see if Parra can make a go of it in the bullpen. He's shown that he can't get through 6. But, he has good enough stuff, that maybe coming in for an inning (and being an emergency starter) is a role that he can succeed in. Generally, the bullpen is the destination for failed starters, and there's certainly enough that made a living there that a one month audition for Parra might be instructive.

 

Robert

Same here; I said about a month ago that I was disappointed that Capuano was coming out of the rotation after the spot start, and that Parra was allowed to stick (even though I completely understood the reasoning).

 

Going to the pen could be a good thing for Parra, in that most starters turned relievers 'find' an extra couple of miles on the fastball when they no longer have to (try to) pitch 6+ innings, and can just cut loose. That being said, a 95 mph fastball down the heart of the plate is going to get hammered just as easily as a 92 mph meatball, so it might not make a difference unless / until Manny finds the corners.

 

[And That]

Capuano to the rotation, Parra to the bullpen according to a McCalvy tweet.

 

Cappy will start Saturday at home against Pittsburgh.

[Warning Track Power]

Capuano to the rotation, Parra to the bullpen according to a McCalvy tweet.

 

Cappy will start Saturday at home against Pittsburgh.

About the right time to make this move. I think Parra has had a long enough leash as a starter and has shown his line will consistently sit at about 5.2 IP, 4 ER. Be it a good or bad thing, we aren't quite bad enough to let him play out the season as a starter and continually put lines up like this. Getting to .500 while developing those players such as Lucroy, Cain, Braddock, Axford, etc.. should still be the goal for this season and Parra has had his shot.

 

[RockCoCougars]

Good. Give Capuano some starts, and see how he does- if he looks OK for the rest of the season, I'd be inclined to offer him an incentive laden contract for next year. Frankly, I'd rather have an '85 percent' version of the 2005 Capuano than Parra as the #5 going forward. I've seen enough of Parra in the rotation. Perhaps he can be a serviceable reliever in the slim chance that he has a future in Milwaukee.

[twobrewers]

Out of all pitchers in the NL with at least 80 IP on the year Parra comes in last for runs saved with his fastball at -1.91/100

 

Last year out of all pitchers in the NL with at least 120 IP on the year Parra came in last for runs saved with his fastball at -1.76/100 (Suppan was 2nd to last at -1.7)

 

In 2008 out of all the pitchers in the NL with at least 120 IP on the year Parra came in 3rd to last in runs saved with his fastball at -1.55/100.

It's posts like this that keep bringing me back to Brewerfan.net.

 

Thanks Ennder. I look forward to regurgitating that stat to my friends in the future.

[LouisEly]

Is it because his fastball is bad? Or is it because "the book" on him is that Parra doesn't have command of his off-speed stuff so when he gets in a jam he they know he is going to throw his fastball so they sit on it. Frankly I find it hard to believe that they can tell exactly what pitch is being thrown with a heckuva lot of accuracy.

 

This to me is the odd stat about Parra that stands out:

 

OPS vs. RH - 0.778

OPS vs LH - 1.059

 

For some reason lefties are killing Parra. That OPS vs. righties for a LHP is excellent - if he could just figure out how to be average LHP vs LHH he would be a good pitcher. Is something about his delivery tipping his pitches to lefties? It could relate to the fastball - if Parra doesn't throw his offspeed stuff to lefties, they can sit on the fastball which is easier for lefties to hit than curveballs and sliders.

[trwi7]

Getting to .500 while developing those players such as Lucroy, Cain, Braddock, Axford, etc.. should still be the goal for this season and Parra has had his shot.

Why should that be "the goal." It really doesn't matter if they lose 81 or 89 at this point. And since you say they should be developing the young guys, shouldn't Parra be a part of that group?

 

 

[Warning Track Power]

Getting to .500 while developing those players such as Lucroy, Cain, Braddock, Axford, etc.. should still be the goal for this season and Parra has had his shot.

Why should that be "the goal." It really doesn't matter if they lose 81 or 89 at this point. And since you say they should be developing the young guys, shouldn't Parra be a part of that group?

 

No. Parra's ERA since the first week of July is over 7. To me this is the equivalent of a hitter who is hitting under .200 after 2 months in the lineup. It's time to send that theoretical hitter back down to Triple AAA. Same thing with Parra, except if my memory serves, he is out of options. In this vein a move to a different role is warranted.

 

If Parra was showing signs of growth, he absolutely should be part of that group. But Parra isn't progressing. He has regressed. Now i am sure a stathead could prove me wrong, but what my eyes see tell me he was better 2 years ago than what he is now.

 

As for the goal of .500, maybe your right. Maybe I personally would feel better about this team at .500. But for that young group to have contributed to pulling this team back to .500 on the season after the atrocious start, I can't help but think it would do wonders for their confidence going into 2011.

[wibadgers23]

Now hopefully Rivas replaces Narveson in September.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I like this move. I much prefer Cappy to Parra and Narveson, and probably Bush as well. If I could keep one of the 4 I'd keep Cappy. Now Narveson should get removed as well.

[MJLiverock]

I don't have a problem if this is to try and see if Parra has any hope now as a reliever since the starting option seems done for. I have doubts about Parra as a reliever since his problems of pitching with guys on base and command of his pitches don't bode well for a reliever.

 

Cappy is a nice story but if the Brewers go into 2011 counting on him to be part of the rotation that tells me the rotation won't be any better than this year's version. Guys don't come back from 2 TJ surgery's and have success for long. If Cappy is one of their 5 best options next year the roation won't be very good.

 

He may have a few decent outings but counting on him for 150+ innings isn't wise. I remeber when Smoltz put up a few decent outings with the Cardinals last year after Boston cut him loose and people were excited and asking why the Brewers didn't grab him. Smoltz faded away as the year finished up and is nowhere to be found this year.

[monty57]

All I can say is that it will be an interesting off-season. Depending on how things shake out, if it looks like someone like Rivas or Rogers is going to be the #5, I wouldn't mind seeing Capuano start the season as #5 with Rivas/Rogers starting in AAA for a few starts, replacing Capuano a month or so into the season. That may keep Rivas/Rogers on regular starts and get them more experience against more advanced hitters before debuting in the majors.

 

Capuano is also a good guy as long reliever/spot starter, but I'd like to see him get more than 3-4 outings / month. However, if I were Capuano, and I had a chance to go somewhere that I would be in consideration for a full-time rotation spot, I'd have to take that over a long man role.

[TooLiveBrew]

Will Rogers need another season in the minors to build up his workload? He only threw 64.2 IP in '09, and is at 110 so far this season. I guess he could just throw his 150-ish IP next season at the big-league level, so maybe having him in the #5 role would allow the Brewers to skip some of his starts to make sure he can pitch later in the season.

[sveumrules]

To build up his workload and to work on his control. All his other rates are great but those walks are gonna need to comedown if he wants to be a MLB starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

Pitcher A career as Brewer (age 26-28):

 

248 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA; 1.592 WHIP.

 

Pitcher B career (age 24-27):

 

441 2/3 IP, 5.28 ERA; 1.662 WHIP

 

Pitcher C Brewer career (age 28-29)

 

218 2/3 IP, 5.19 ERA; 1.50 WHIP

 

 

Pitcher A = Wes Obermueller

 

Pitcher B = Manny Parra

 

Pitcher C = Wayne Franklin

 

 

Obermueller and Franklin both became sort of poster boys for fan's frustration with the Brewer pitching staffs at the time and neither did anything after leaving. Both weren't any worse than Parra, yet somehow there remains some out there that want to see him come back next year for fear he'll find success elsewhere.

[sveumrules]

The difference between Parra & Obie/Franklin is pure stuff. Wayne Franklin's hardest avg fastball velocity in a season was 89 and that was a year he pitched 50 innings. Parra's career average is 92, 3 MPH is pretty significant.

[Beast Light]

Will Rogers need another season in the minors to build up his workload? He only threw 64.2 IP in '09, and is at 110 so far this season. I guess he could just throw his 150-ish IP next season at the big-league level, so maybe having him in the #5 role would allow the Brewers to skip some of his starts to make sure he can pitch later in the season.

This is exactly what I like to see the 5th spot in a rotation used for. It would be great to see the Brewers get into some sort of rhythm with their starting pitcher and be able to use the 5th spot as they ease in all their young pitchers.

 

As for next year, Manny Parra better not be in the rotation to start the season or I am going to be very disappointed.

 

 

[Ennder]

The difference between Parra & Obie/Franklin is pure stuff. Wayne Franklin's hardest avg fastball velocity in a season was 89 and that was a year he pitched 50 innings. Parra's career average is 92, 3 MPH is pretty significant.

 

Except at this point there is no reason to think Parra's fastball is worth anything. He has had the worst fastball in baseball over the past 3 years, might be because his command is so bad they just sit on the fastball, might be the lack of movement on it, might be problems out of the stretch. The results though show that regardless of how good his velocity is his fastball is not a major league quality pitch. Parra has never really looked the same after his injuries, he wouldn't be the first promising young prospect to have his career derailed after a couple of injuries.

[sveumrules]

I realize how poor Parra's FB has been, and I attribute it mostly to location/command. I'm just saying as a lefty with his stuff he'll naturally get more chances than guys like Obie/Franklin. Whether he actually deserves it or not is another argument but until they come up with a gun that you point at a pitcher and it says "this guy is a pitcher" or "this guy will never put it together" the scouts will keep seeing those 92, 93, 94 readings and go off of that.

[nate82]

I wonder how much of Parra being bad the last two years has to do with his ridiculously high BABIP. Manny really hasn't been hit all that hard this year with a 18 LD% on the year Parra also has a GB% of 46.5% and Parra has a BABIP line of .358.

 

I'm not saying that Parra is perfect or that luck is the reason why he is bad but it is one of the contributing factors that he has been bad this year. I am also not convinced that Parra's 16.5% HR/FB rate is anything but a fluke. I am just wondering how much of this is bad luck and how much of this is because of the Brewers poor infield defense.

 

I also believe that Parra physically is nothing more than a 6 inning pitcher or a 100 pitch pitcher whichever comes first. To me it looks as though once he gets into the later innings he looks rather tired and out of it. I believe the Brewers need to realize this and just settle with Parra being a #4 or a #5 pitcher in the rotation instead of hoping he turns into a #2 or #1 like pitcher.

[Invader3K]

Slightly off-topic, but this is a really good article from Tom Haudricourt regarding the team's rotation woes:

 

Attanasio's priority: Fix Brewers' pitching

[brewmann04]

will ther be any chance that the brewers bring up the 2 big Boopers from Nashville in Katlin and Kohanasky

[Funketown]

I wonder how much of Parra being bad the last two years has to do with his ridiculously high BABIP. Manny really hasn't been hit all that hard this year with a 18 LD% on the year Parra also has a GB% of 46.5% and Parra has a BABIP line of .358.

 

I'm not saying that Parra is perfect or that luck is the reason why he is bad but it is one of the contributing factors that he has been bad this year. I am also not convinced that Parra's 16.5% HR/FB rate is anything but a fluke. I am just wondering how much of this is bad luck and how much of this is because of the Brewers poor infield defense.

For a long time I thought Parra's BABIP should project somewhere around .315 - .320, but after seeing him put up that .350 career BABIP in 444 innings, I see him as more of an anomaly than a victim of bad luck. A lot of explanations have been proposed over and over again (mostly his brutal fastball). I don't know why it is, but I'm uncomfortable attributing it to luck.

 

The HR/FB% does seem to be quite high for Parra, but again, his career rate of 12.8% is pretty high. I typically try to avoid saying things like "guys just hit him hard, center on his pitches, he serves meatballs", given that meatballers don't typically exhibit higher rates for BABIP or HR/FB. Who knows with this guy. He's quite the enigma (mmm...Enigma...).

[PrinceEatMeat]

will ther be any chance that the brewers bring up the 2 big Boopers from Nashville in Katlin and Kohanasky

Nope. Those guys aren't seen as much more than career minor leaguers in my opinion. It would be cool to see Katin, but doubt it happens.