Brendan Katin

[SenatorShriv]

I haven't been paying close attention to the minor league system this year so I'm just getting around to noticing that Brendan Katin is having another nice year at the plate. His OPS is currently sitting at about .900. Seeing as this is his third season in Nashville, it seems pretty clear that he isn't in the Brewer's long-term plans as an everday player (nore should he be), but it surprises me a little that he doesn't seem to be on the radar as a bench player either. He is 27 so he is probably reaching his peak performance years so if he doesn't get a chance with the Brewers or someone else soon, his ship may sail.

 

The questions include... Does Brendan Katin have a path to the major leagues with the Brewers? If we were to include him in a trade package during the off season are there teams that would want him on the bench or is he destined to be one of those "really good" baseball players who never get their shots at the major leagues?

 

Aside question - how is his defense in RF?

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see him added to the 40 man roster and given a September callup. I've heard he has a cannon for an arm, and is a good RF. It would give the Brewers a nice power bat off the bench next season as a 5th OF, assuming Gomez is traded this off-season. I guess that, or an injury is the only way I could see him making the big league roster next season.

[jdoz]

Hammers the ball, having a great year, and has a cannon for an arm. An absolute joke if he isn't given a shot at the major league level just at least to evaluate him for long term plan. Righteously has been criticized for poor plate discipline with high K/BB ratio, but even has that way down this year.

 

Would be a different story if the team was contending and stacked in the outfield and if he was 23. The team is out, the team's outfield could use another big bat, at least off the bench, and a good arm, and he's 27 so why not find out what he can do while he could still do it? At the very least a good showing as a call up would allow for a trade possibility if he remains outside the long term plan.

 

Not much downside here to a call up; good risk/reward if you ask me.

[Tedaldtada]

I pretty much agree jdoz. I was checking out his numbers this morning actually, and he has kept the obp in .360 range all year, a full 100 points above his avg. He is taking a step forward no doubt. He won't be a star, but he should have a decent career when all is said and done.

[FVBrewerFan]

Katin= Nelson Cruz. Is that a reach, yea probably, but it's a similar situation. Cruz put up big numbers but just didn't seem to fit into the Brewers' plans. With Hart being injured, it would have been a good time to bring Katin up and play every day in RF to see what he does. You already know what you have in Gomez and Dickerson. Sure would help if he was a LH hitter.

[jdoz]

He deserves a shot, that's all I'm saying.

 

http://web.minorleaguebas...recap&fext=.jsp&sid=t556

[DHonks]

I've always kind of envisioned him as a Jay Buhner type. His season is pretty good though. High OBP, high homers. His three year totals at AAA are pretty good as a whole, too. Seeing as our OF has speed, I could see him competing with Gomez for the 5th OF spot. Isn't Katin supposed to be pretty good in RF, especially his arm?

[TooLiveBrew]

He deserves a shot, that's all I'm saying.

 

http://web.minorleaguebas...recap&fext=.jsp&sid=t556

While I think I've always tempered my expectations, I absolutely agree that Brendan deserves a shot. I think he'll get it come ST 2011, but I hope that specific ST isn't the only performance of his that's considered. An outfield of Braun--Cain--Hart--Dickerson--Katin would be just fine by me. It'd be relatively cheap, to boot.

[Never Outhustled]

Katin is far more deserving of a MLB job than Carlos Gomez.

[JohnBriggs12]

Katin's 27 and he's struck out once every 3 AB's at AAA. His numbers are up some this year, but he's not in any way comparable to Cruz, who posted OPS of over .900 at age 25 and over 1.1 at age 27. Cruz also a career .311 hitter, and .591 slugger at AAA while Katin's .261 and .523. Cruz struck out a lot too but 1 in 4 AB's is a lot better than 1 in 3.

 

It's questionable whether a guy who has trouble making contact at AAA can be effective off the major league bench too. Brad Nelson, who made better contact in AAA couldn't handle that role. Gomez, for all his deficiencies as a hitter, at least gives you pinch running options and late inning double switch defensive options.

[dadofandrew]

.328/.539 in 3 seasons at AAA does not jump out as anything but a platoon/reserve to me. A K every 3 AB's versus AAA arms does not speak indicate success in the bigs either. Wait 'til he sees 3-2 breaking balls on the corner.

 

Cruz had a .397 OBP in AAA, and a far higher SLG as well. There's no comparison. Katin has power, so he's a breakout candidate, since so few AAA guys do, but he's not young and he plays corner OF. If he was a 2B/3B/CF, I'd say he had a future. As is, I don't see it.

[jjfanec]

I never been a huge Katin supporter because he would start off hot and then fall off at the end of the year. This year I kept saying if he continues to play well for the season I will come around on him. So, I am late in the game, but I will now say I think Katin deserves a call-up. He has limited the K's, while increasing his BB and power. Not much else you can ask for out of him

[Hammer]

Katin is far more deserving of a MLB job than Carlos Gomez.

What's funny is I was going to post the exact same thing. Wow X, we agree on something! With Cain and Dickerson on the team already there is absolutely no reason for Gomez to be on the roster anymore.

[kramnoj]

.328/.539 in 3 seasons at AAA does not jump out as anything but a platoon/reserve to me

 

Is anyone claiming anything different at this point? I would love it if Katin was on the ML roster next year and would hope that he would get few starts. But he would be a nice PH to have off the bench several times a week.

[dadofandrew]

The problem is, most any AAA player can be a reserve, without embarrassing himself or the team. What you need though is a guy like Dickerson, or even Inglett...guys who can PH when needed, but who can also step in and play a couple weeks in case of injury and not be a negative. Inglett is very similar to Frank C, who had a long career in the bigs. Dickerson, especially as a CF, has nearly average major league numbers.

 

A guy with the ceiling to be a reserve probably is not much of a reserve, he's more AAA depth. If Hart goes down for a month and you have a guy unable to get on base 30% of the time as his backup, he ain't much of a backup. His MLE is .272/.434, which again, is passable if he's a C or 2B, but not in LF/RF. It's just too many outs.

 

I just don't see him as anything more than what he is now, though you have to keep an eye on him because of his pop. Very few minor leaguers have even 20 HR a year power.

[MJLiverock]

.328/.539 in 3 seasons at AAA does not jump out as anything but a platoon/reserve to me

 

Is anyone claiming anything different at this point? I would love it if Katin was on the ML roster next year and would hope that he would get few starts. But he would be a nice PH to have off the bench several times a week.

It would be nice to have one RH pinch hitting option on the bench once a while. I guess the team invisions Gomez in that role?

 

 

[jdoz]

3 more today for Katin. No call up, might as well trade the guy and get something for him. Moreover, would give him a shot to rake in the majors as he's earned it.

[monty57]

If Hart goes down for a month and you have a guy unable to get on base 30% of the time as his backup, he ain't much of a backup.

 

Corey Hart isn't really an OBP machine at a .327 career clip. Katin's 24 HR in 88 games this year are as many as Corey Hart has ever had in a full 162 game season at the MLB level (in 2007, he may break it this year). I know it's AAA vs. MLB, but 24 HR in 88 games is darn good power regardless of the level.

 

His MLE is .272/.434, which again, is passable if he's a C or 2B, but not in LF/RF. It's just too many outs.

 

I don't follow MLE closely, but I've heard it's pretty much as accurate as an 18th century meteorologist. How does .280 avg / .376 OBP / .563 SLG at AAA translate to a .272 OBP / .434 SLG in the majors? If a .939 AAA OPS translate to a .706 MLB OPS then a .900 OPS MLB player must have hit for around a 2.000 OPS at AAA.

 

What you need though is a guy like Dickerson, or even Inglett...guys who can PH when needed, but who can also step in and play a couple weeks in case of injury and not be a negative. Inglett is very similar to Frank C, who had a long career in the bigs. Dickerson, especially as a CF, has nearly average major league numbers.

 

From all I've ever hears, Katin would give you a lot better defense than either Hart or Braun. Inglett threw a 54-MPH fastball off the mound. Not really the type of arm I like to see out of a RF. Plus, he was a utility infielder to start the season, until the team decided to put "OF" by his name. He isn't a natural OF and doesn't get a good jump on balls because of this. I'd say Katin's a much better defensive OF than Inglett. Dickerson is probably a better fielder than Katin, and I'd like to see the two of them in the 4/5 roles next year. One LH with a decent contact bat with limited power and good defense, one a RH bat with good power and good defense with a great arm.

 

I've liked Katin as a reserve OF for a couple of years simply due to his defense and power. Now that he's apparently developed the ability to take walks, it really seems like he could benefit the team.

[pete]

I think it would be great if Katin could adapt to not playing regularly and produce in that role. That happens sometimes although not usually. Having said that, Inglett is an infielder who is able enough to play a game or two if needed. The reason he threw in the 50s as an emergency pitcher was because he was told to dial it back to avoid any chance of injuring himself.

[Mass Haas]

With power being such a valuable commodity these days, it's hard to see Katin being completely passed over in Rule 5 if he's not added to the 40-man roster.

 

29 other teams, somebody would have to take a shot, right?

[LouisEly]

For as much as people complain about defense, Katin is an above-average corner OF defensively. Debate his OBP & K rates (I thought Ks didn't matter?), but considering his power, arm, and overall offensive and defensive abilities you could do a lot worse for a 4th OF.

[battlekow]

(I thought Ks didn't matter?)

At the big-league level, they don't--guys who are there already hit enough to be there. In MiLB, a large number of K's portends an inability to make enough contact with MLB pitching to hit at an MLB level.

[gregmag]

I don't follow MLE closely, but I've heard it's pretty much as accurate as an 18th century meteorologist.

 

Could you please provide some support for this assertion?

[monty57]

Could you please answer the rest of the paragraph I wrote:

 

How does .280 avg / .376 OBP / .563 SLG at AAA translate to a .272 OBP / .434 SLG in the majors? If a .939 AAA OPS translate to a .706 MLB OPS then a .900 OPS MLB player must have hit for around a 2.000 OPS at AAA.

 

If someone who posts a .939 OPS in AAA is expected (per MLE) to post a .706 MLB OPS, then what would someone have to do for the MLE to project them to be even a halfway decent player?

[monty57]

Just a quick search led me to this excerpt from seamheads.com:

 

"...Of course, creating MLEs at all is a bit of a fool’s errand. We can’t really know how any player would have played in a different environment, especially one that is drastically different regarding its level of competition. Some players can adapt and adjust their playing when faced with different settings, and some have difficulty. Nevertheless, it can be a fun and enlightening exercise..."

 

According to MLE, Alcides Escobar should hit for a .261/.299/.347 .646 OPS which isn't too far off of what he's doing. .251/.302/.343 .645 OPS

 

But how did they do with Casey McGehee? He was expected to post a .241 avg / .284 obp / .338 slg/ .622 OPS last year. Not really close.

 

Based on Corey Patterson's 2009 Nashville stats, he should post a .290 avg / .323 obp / .495 slg / .818 OPS. Based on MLE, we never should have let him go.

 

I think the people of seamheads.com got it right. It's a fool's errand, but can be a fun and enlightning exercise.