2011 General Draft Discussion

[sfl2hnq17]

Colby, what do you think about Kyle Winkler from TCU? Do you think that the Brewers would be interested?

[battlekow]

Colby, what do you think about Kyle Winkler from TCU? Do you think that the Brewers would be interested?

They drafted him in 2008, so I bet they would.

[colbyjack]

One other guy I'm intrigued by is Dante Bichette Jr. Colby, do you think he'll be around for the Brewers 2nd round pick or is his commitment to UGA pretty solid and going to make it difficult to sign him? The Brewers could use another 3B prospect as Taylor Green has kind of fizzled out a bit and the only other prospect is Mike Walker.

 

I don't think Bichette sticks at 3B, but I do think he could be at the team's pick in the 2nd round. I got up his 50 in 50 profile this evening if you want to read his detailed report (free for all to enjoy):

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5717

 

And speaking of free, most of PG's draft coverage is free. The only thing that won't be are the state-by-state lists, which really are the only thing of their kind out there, and well worth the price. Alabama's is available for free to get a feel for what the lists are all about:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or....aspx?Year=2011&State=AL

 

DHonks, sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. Instead of answering your question, I invite you to read the Arizona state preview. My PG associates usually have a good finger on the pulse of which players are being targeted for what rounds:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5690

 

SessileFielder already pointed out that the Brewers have already drafted Winkler once, so yes, they would be interested. His stuff was consistently better this season, at least earlier in the spring.

 

I don't mean to sound like a corporate shill, but if you don't visit Perfect Game regularly for draft coverage, please be sure to do so. We're working on some things behind the scenes right now that we hope to put in place on draft day, but won't be able to announce that until we can confirm that it will actually happen. I can tell you that we want to be the place people go to for draft coverage, as the amount of information we have in-house is unmatched (and that is a big part of the reason I was brought on board full-time). We're really our own scouting department, we just don't have any picks of our own.

 

And thanks to Toby for sharing some of my recent tweets.

[paul253]

Hey Colby. I was wondering if you could tell me how Javier Baez compares to Brett Lawrie when he was drafted. They both seemed to have big bats without a set position, though it looks like both will end up at third base. I remember quite a few people thought Lawrie was a steal when we got him and they turned out to be right. If we got Baez at 15 would that be considered a steal?

[And That]

Baseball America has a new mock draft up. This link is for subscribers only. They should have a free version up in a bit.

 

They have the Brewers taking Francisco Lindor at #12 and Sonny Gray at #15.

 

Edit: Here's the non-subscriber link, sans analysis.

[paul253]

I'd wet myself if we got Lindor and Gray.

[ListachRides]

Yeah, hard not to be excited that scenario. BA has Mahtook and Spangenberg going 13 and 14, both of whom I like less than Lindor or Gray. Guerrieri and Meyer were the two picks after Gray, in case anybody prefers one of those arms. My only concern with Gray is that there's been a lot of talk lately that he's going to end up a closer. But I'd still be thrilled to get him at 15.

[And That]

Callis tweeted to me:

[Lindor is a] hard guy to fit. Could go as high as 2.

Obviously, no guarantees Lindor will be around at 12.

[YoungGeezy]

Love Lindor pick but I honestly will be soooo pissed if we went college pitcher at 15 if the name is not Hultzen, Bauer, Cole, Bradley or maaaybe Barnes which should all be gone. Such a loaded draft with young, talented, power arm high school pitchers sitting there for a team absolutely desperate for some young high ceiling guys to reenergize and rebuild the system.

 

This whole idea of college pitchers move faster and are more safe is 100% complete [crap]. Only difference between the two is college guys are a little more polished and are closer to ceiling while high school guys are much more raw with harder to project and higher ceilings (a lot can change from 17-21). That is why there are so many guys like Barnes who were no ones in HS but become 1st round picks or like Parra in one yr going from 26rd to possible 1st rd (prior to d&f signing)

 

Plus I like the thought of a Pierce, Perez, Guierrieri pitching wave for the next 3-6 years.

 

Edit: Took out cuss acronym. - And That

[ListachRides]

I think you're being a bit too dogmatic on the high school vs. college issue. Gray and Meyer have among the best fastball-breaking ball combinations in the draft. Both have the ceiling of a #1 or 2 starter. Guerrieri's upside isn't higher than either. Both have issues with their command and inconsistent third pitches that may prevent them from reaching their ceilings, but Guerrieri really isn't any different on that front. The argument for Guerrieri is that as a younger guy with less coaching to this point there's perhaps more reason to hope he can make major improvement in those areas. Also, some may prefer his size/delivery to Gray's or Meyer's. The argument for the two college guys is that right now their top two pitches are more developed/consistent than Guerrieri's and there's a risk that he won't even develop those adequately. I'd be fine with any of the three, though my preference is probably: Gray, Guerrieri, Meyer. The Brewers can still land a high upside high school pitcher to bring up with Pierce and Perez later in the draft if they don't go that route in round 1. Now if they go for college players with 6 of their next 7 picks after round 1 like last year, I can understand getting worked up.

[Never Outhustled]

Love Lindor pick but I honestly will be soooo pissed if we went college pitcher at 15 if the name is not Hultzen, Bauer, Cole, Bradley or maaaybe Barnes which should all be gone. Such a loaded draft with young, talented, power arm high school pitchers sitting there for a team absolutely desperate for some young high ceiling guys to reenergize and rebuild the system.

 

This whole idea of college pitchers move faster and are more safe is 100% complete [crap]. Only difference between the two is college guys are a little more polished and are closer to ceiling while high school guys are much more raw with harder to project and higher ceilings (a lot can change from 17-21). That is why there are so many guys like Barnes who were no ones in HS but become 1st round picks or like Parra in one yr going from 26rd to possible 1st rd (prior to d&f signing)

 

 

 

 

 

Research strongly suggests that impact talent is no more common from the HS ranks than the college ranks. The HS versus college debate is old news, the 2 venues of aquiring talent are surprisingly equal in their results.

 

1 huge factor in so many player busts are make-up and character. Yet so many here are completely ignoring those factors while falling in love with Baez and Guierreri. Too many good players available at 12 and 15 to take risks like that. Even from a baseball only stance, Guierreri has a lot of similarities to Phillip Aumont. We can do better than Aumont.

 

I loved Gray out of HS, and still do. I'd love to add him now. Sure, he's short, just like Lincecome or Thornburg. He's most similar to Ben Sheets, but with dedication to stay in top physical condition.

 

I still think we need to consider CJ Cron at 15. Research shows that far and away the most productive picks are slugging college 1Bs. The gap between Cron's production and everyone else this year is massive. Why wouldn't we want a big time bat at 1B? He's the safest pick in the draft, and he still carries a ceiling of occasional All-Star. That's an awesome get at 15. The best thing the Brewers ever do in the draft is pick sluggers.

 

In all, we need high quality prospects, regardless of position. Picking for need is a luxory only teams with strong systems can afford. At some point in the future the Brewers will likely trade for a SS. We need to get some talent in the system to do that.

[brewerguy71]

I have to agree with X. An impact arm can be had from either HS or college. The real issue here, especially when it comes to the Brewers, is that they are very bad at developing pitching. The guys they have "developed", I would argue were guys who couldnt be broken, such as Sheets and Gallardo.

 

With what might be available to them I would prefer a bat at 12 such as Bell or Swihart, and at 15 a college arm. I think the HS arms they they will have a shot at are either not Brewer type picks, such as Archie Bradley, or very breakable, such as Guerrieri.

[nate82]

With what might be available to them I would prefer a bat at 12 such as Bell or Swihart, and at 15 a college arm. I think the HS arms they they will have a shot at are either not Brewer type picks, such as Archie Bradley, or very breakable, such as Guerrieri.

While I love Bell and would love for the Brewers to get him I don't see Boras advising him to take the money now even with the new changes coming to the draft with slotting. I believe Boras is going to do the same thing he told Teixeira and that is to go to college so he can get more money in the draft. Bell is going to be a top 5 pick talent player and he will get that money or more. Bell may just wait go to Texas and then come out and into the draft when he is 21 and be the #1 or #2 pick and get more money than he would now. Basically it is going to take #1 pick money to get Bell to sign and I am not sure the Brewers are willing to spend that much on Bell.

I agree with X on his CJ Cron pick. If he is available at 15 the Brewers need to take him. The Brewers have absolutely no one in the minors right now with a bat like Cron's. There is no power hitting anything in the farm system for the Brewers right now. The Brewers really need to pick the best player available it doesn't matter if it is a fielder or a pitcher. Hopefully the Brewers just go with the best player available at 12 and 15.

 

[Tedaldtada]

I don't think Cron has the ability to play anywhere in the field, not even first. There are others who agree that he is a DH only.

[paul253]

In all, we need high quality prospects, regardless of position.

Picking for need is a luxory only teams with strong systems can afford.

At some point in the future the Brewers will likely trade for a SS. We

need to get some talent in the system to do that.

 

While I agree with the best pick available idea, if there is a shortstop available who isn't a reach you have to take him. CJ Cron may be able to mash it but that doesn't help if we have nowhere to put him. When Prince leaves after this year, we already have 3 legitimate options to replace him at first....Gamel, McGehee and Hart. That doesn't even mention possible free agents like Derek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Pena. At shortstop Jose Reyes is a free agent but he'll command huge amounts of money. The majority of the other FA shortstops are mid 30s below average offensive guys. We have literally no prospects in the minors at shortstop and have to hope that someone like Rivera develops into an option three or four years from now. First base is 10 times easier to fill with a quality player than shortstop. The problem I have with drafting someone like Cron is that he is pretty much limited to left field or first base. Left field is Braun's until he doesn't want it anymore, which could be 8 or 9 years. First base is much, much easier to fill than shortstop. You can pretty much just take your best hitter and move them there and they will be adequate enough. The Brewers had to claim someone who was in AAA all year just because they didn't have enough guys capable of playing shortstop. I just feel like if we draft Cron, we'd be drafting him as a trading chip. Someone like Lindor could be an every day player at a premium position for half a decade. Even if something happens and we stumble into a better shortstop option, shortstops are usually able to convert to third base pretty easily. With a little work they can move to second or center field too. I just hate to use a top 15 pick on a thumper who can't move off of first base when the system is weak in every position except outfield. I know you have to go best available, but unless Cron is far and away the best available I'd rather Milwaukee go in another direction. In this draft I can't see him being far and away the best available.

[Tedaldtada]

I read a Lindor v. Machado comparison somewhere and the jist was that Machado's hit tool and power potential are worlds better then Lindor's. Anyone have any personal feelings regarding Lindor's high end hitting line?

[TheCrew07]

Paul you need to mix in a paragraph or two on these long posts if you could please.

 

 

You're looking at the MLB team and trying to plug prospects like you would with football, but it's never that simple because players are usually at least 2 years away from contributing when drafted. What others are saying is build the strongest system possible with the most impact players you can possibly get regardless of position. In the end you'll end up with holes in the organization, say SS for example... just because there wasn't a good SS prospect at the top of the board when it was our time to draft. That's okay though, the idea is to develop enough depth that you can trade for a more permanent piece some place. I realize Melvin hasn't done that to this point, but there's nothing a Scouting Director can do but build the deepest system possible.

 

The Brewers are in no position to be drafting for MLB need, the system is in terrible shape. I agree with BPA and grabbing as much impact talent as possible, let the chips fall where they may. While I'm not excited by the idea of more no glove all bat players, I think the end result is more a function of the way the Brewers develop players than a problem on the drafting side. At some point the Brewers will have to do a better job developing more well rounded players that are at least scratch defenders.

 

Blowing the Arnett and Covey picks has really gimped the system, they need to nail the first round this year.

[YoungGeezy]

Paul you need to mix in a paragraph or two on these long posts if you could please.

 

 

You're looking at the MLB team and trying to plug prospects like you would with football, but it's never that simple because players are usually at least 2 years away from contributing when drafted. What others are saying is build the strongest system possible with the most impact players you can possibly get regardless of position. In the end you'll end up with holes in the organization, say SS for example... just because there wasn't a good SS prospect at the top of the board when it was our time to draft. That's okay though, the idea is to develop enough depth that you can trade for a more permanent piece some place. I realize Melvin hasn't done that to this point, but there's nothing a Scouting Director can do but build the deepest system possible.

 

The Brewers are in no position to be drafting for MLB need, the system is in terrible shape. I agree with BPA and grabbing as much impact talent as possible, let the chips fall where they may. While I'm not excited by the idea of more no glove all bat players, I think the end result is more a function of the way the Brewers develop players than a problem on the drafting side. At some point the Brewers will have to do a better job developing more well rounded players that are at least scratch defenders.

 

Blowing the Arnett and Covey picks has really gimped the system, they need to nail the first round this year.

Yeah agreed, you can not draft for need in baseball. All is equal between two prospects (say Lindor and Starling fell to 12) maybe you go with were you have the whole but never just to to fill the spot. Look at last year we loaded up on college arms because our starting pitching was so terrible now we have a great rotation and all those guys we drafted to quickly move up and fill those holes are still at least 3 years away. You take the most talented, high ceiling prospect available regardless to what you have in the major leagues. Prospects and vis versa vets can always be moved postion or trade wise. You develop a big board and take the top guy left, C,1B,2B,SS,3B,LF,SP,CP or whatever position it is.

 

Now, I heard many times Baez cannot stick at SS but it is usually mentioned it is due to his frame not that he has a bad glove. That is however just from the reports I have read...is that the case?

 

Also I have read through every Guierrieri scouting report and link I can find to see why so many of you see him as this horrible trainwreck of a kid. Nowhere have I read about this horrendous character. The worse thing I find is that "if he had been more consistent before this season he'd be ahead of Bundy" that is something you will find all over. Sits 94-95 tops 98 with a "freakish" curveball. The consistancy thing worries me a bit but he is said to have clean mechanics and generates most of his power through his legs making it look effortless (not from over doing is arm speed or jerking his arm to much. He has a lot of work to do on his change for the fact that he never has had to use it, he just blows everyone way fastball or buckles them curveball. So maybe I just haven't found the same reports as you guys have (post them, id like to read them) so maybe he does maybe he doesn't but that is a lot of talent to pass on.

 

This draft is critical for the Brewers so I hope whatever way they go, it works out. If we could land another Lawrie-Odorizzi type combo again in the early rounds, that will be huge.

[nate82]

Blowing the Arnett and Covey picks has really gimped the system, they need to nail the first round this year.

I'll take Arnett as a blown pick but the Covey one was a blessing in disguise. Getting two picks in a rather loaded draft is rather nice all of the players that the Brewers could select this year are better than what the Brewers could have gotten last year including Covey. Yes it is another year the earliest that the player would be on the MLB roster. I like the talent better this year than what was available to the Brewers last year.

The Brewers just need to change their system around as defense can be taught it is just a matter of getting the correct people in the correct spots and drafting the correct players. I am hoping for at least one impact player and one above average player to be drafted.

[paul253]

What others are saying is build the strongest system possible with the

most impact players you can possibly get regardless of position.

 

I think you are completely misunderstanding what I said. I agree with the whole best available idea as I said. What am I arguing though is that if the players you are looking at are mostly comparable talent wise then drafting for need isn't always a terrible idea. I don't know how the Brewers grade players, but let's say they use 1-100 scale. If Player A is graded as a 90 and Player B is graded as an 87 then BPA dictates that you take player A. But if the Brewers are drafting and Player A is an outfielder, which the Brewers are loaded up on on multiple levels of their system and in the majors, and player B is a shortstop, which the Brewers desperately need because they have none, then I don't see why you can't take Player B and still be happy with the pick. I'm not saying you take the best available shortstop just because you need a shortstop. I've never said they should do that.

 

*New paragraph* http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

In the case of this draft, if the Brewers have Cron and Lindor graded mostly even, even if Cron is slightly ahead, then I don't see why they should take Cron if they are both available. I believe I read that he mostly profiles at first base whereas Lindor is a shortstop. Shortstops tend to be more able to switch positions later on if they need to (3rd, 2nd, CF, as I said) or they can be a super utility player. They can be kept on the roster as defensive specialists, something you'd never do with a first basemen. They are also much harder to replace than a first basemen and a good SS is going to have much higher trade value than a good 1B because they are not as common. If for some reason Cron gets to the big leagues and can't hit MLB pitching, he's useless. They aren't going to keep him on the roster just because he can play good defense at first base. We all thought Matt LaPorta would mash it all over the field but he is a just career .237 hitter through 700 major league at bats. So basically you have two guys graded the same but one guy offers all these other advantages. So why not pick him?

 

And let's be honest, we are talking about a guy who is supposedly be considered as the number two overall pick in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. It's not like picking him at #12 is going to be a major reach. I'd be surprised if he even made it that far. I'm not saying that Cron is a bad player or I'd be disappointed with him in the system. I'm just saying if the option was Cron or Lindor, I'd take Lindor. And if, when picking, they are debating between two players who they view as mostly even, why not take the one at the position you desperately need?

[YoungGeezy]

Not a fan of taking Cron (cousin of the famous Chad Moeller!) in the 1st round. Good college bat but like mentioned can't stick at C, can't play OF, and many are not sure how well he can play first. His ceiling is not very high either, would seem to be a complete waste of a pick in an outstanding draft class.

 

I have to agree with Nate that while I do like Covey and wish he would have been in our system, in this draft he'd profile as a 15-25 pick because of the depth. I think Covey would be considered along the lines of Dillion Howard this season (similar bodies and stuff). We have a great opportunity here, not as amazing as the D-Backs but many teams and scouts would roll over dead to be in our position. 2 top 15 in this draft?! That is nice. They have know since August about the 2 picks and they dont have all these extra picks so they should have a budget where they can be aggressive. Which means I think they could afford to pick Bradley and Swihart and not be to worried about looking them up. (Also have to remember Covey's money couldnt be used because it was to late to use it when they found out.) Not saying they should draft those two but they could.

 

I am really hoping Bichette Jr. is there in the 2nd....we know how the Brewers like their early bloodline picks and I remember watching a ton of stuff on him from showcases with Bryce Harper as freshman and sophmores and have been a big fan since. I think in most drafts he'd be a late 1st-sandwich pick guy so lets hope he can drop.

[TheCrew07]

No, I understood what you're saying, you explained yourself well, I just don't agree with your reasoning.

 

It all depends on how your rate his tools and how you project him, but rarely is there agreement in the draft room like you suggest. A couple of guys are going to be sold on the player (an area scout and a CC for example), a couple of guys maybe not so much and want to go a different direction. That's why the baseball draft is very interesting, so many different opinions, including the SD's. to wade through and come up with a pick. They do line-up the draft board, but even then they have some interesting debates, like in the case of Cordier vs Gallardo in 2004 as Colbyjack posted a couple of years ago:

 

Most of the player-by-player arguments at certain slots are debated among the crosscheckers and scouts. I do know there was a big debate in the war room between Ryan Sweeney and Tony Gwynn Jr. in 2003, and between Yovani Gallardo and Erik Cordier in 2004, but again, that wasn't because of any involvement of Doug Melvin as far as I know.

 

Teams do what you suggest in the later rounds all the time.... in the 20s they start looking to fill out roster spots on the rookie teams so they can field a complete team at each level. Personally I like a player to have 1 stand out tool, then I want dynamic athleticism, however with BPA you're also going to get a good mix of players who aren't necessarily toolsy, but are good performers.

 

SS might be a position of need, but if you project the guy to be a 2.5-3 WAR player at his peak (if he pans out perfectly) and there is someone with a much higher ceiling available, I know where I'm going with that pick. With all the draft picks that flame out in the first round, it's more important to get the right player than it is to get the position, admittedly sometimes the most talented player isn't the best pick for a variety of reasons as X alluded to.

[YoungGeezy]

Just a note if there is anyone who does not know this, TheCrew07 noted on it but Doug Melvin has almost nothing to do with the draft. He sits in the room and stuff but it is 100% Seid's show and his decisions. Melvin doesn't scout, breakdown hours of tape or anything like that. He strictly focuses on the major league club. I believe Gordy Ash actually oversees the minors (well Nichols is in charge but reports to Ash who reports to DM). So I didn't read were someone mentioned DM but I read and hear it all the time and it drives me nuts. The geniouses on JSOnline are the worse, I just love how they all blame DM for picks gone bad... ugh jsonline comment box...

[TooLiveBrew]

Not a fan of taking Cron (cousin of the famous Chad Moeller!) in the 1st round.

 

You've convinced me. I'm against this pick. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[YoungGeezy]

Hey now, all that family does is bring cycles to Miller Park! Lol http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif