2011 General Draft Discussion

[DHonks]

Colby, what about the Horizon HS guys. I know that Jordan Dunatov, Nick Valenza, and Zach Stierstorfer have been talking with scouts lately. Have you heard any projections for them?

[colbyjack]

Levi Michael? Seriously? Hes a nice player with a high floor, but not a guy I'd take at 15, and not sure if I'd take him in the first round.

 

Meyer's consistency is encouraging, but keep in mind my projection was made based off of who I think they will take based on a variety of factors, and not based on who I want them to take. I think the #15 pick will be more of a wildcard, but I really don't think the pick will be a Larry Greene surprise.

 

And yes, I think if Rendon is at #2 I think the Ms take him. If not they go Lindor. They want a bat.

[sfl2hnq17]

Colby I have been following the last couple of drafts and I have been reading about this one recently as well. Can you give me an idea of who might fall to the Brewers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? Or maybe BPA's there?

[ListachRides]

I like Barnes a lot. I was quite worried a few months ago that Meyer fit the Brewers' type and that he would be yet another Brewer draftee to disappoint with his lack of control. His numbers and scouting reports have been better lately, so maybe there's hope on that front. In his favor there's been a lot of preference expressed for high-upside high school players, but Meyer has as much upside as any high school player they could take at 15.

[LouisEly]

Colby I have been following the last couple of drafts and I have been reading about this one recently as well. Can you give me an idea of who might fall to the Brewers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? Or maybe BPA's there?

Not sure what the scouts are saying about this guy but when I read that a guy a) leads the NCAA in slugging %, b) is a catcher, c) bats lefty, and d) the league coaches vote him best defensive catcher and best catcher arm - even if it isn't a major conference - he's someone I put on the radar. Also listed as the conference's second best MLB prospect by colby's Perfect Game. Even if he can't stick at C, the bat may play well at 3B, another position of need in the organization.

 

Maybe not a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but his teammate is another guy I'm intrigued by. 8th in the NCAA in slugging %, named conference's best infield arm by one organization, conference's 5th best MLB prospect, and on the watch list for the Brooks Wallace award - best college shortstop - he's another guy I have on the radar. Being a college senior and given the Brewers organizational need for SS, he might be a guy who could rise quickly through the organization. Again, I don't know what scouts are saying about him, but wondering if he might be someone to target in that 5th-15th round range.

 

Oh, and given that this guy is Canadian and given the Brewers organizational need for SS, I think it's a given that they draft him somewhere.

[battlekow]

Jonathan Mayo's first mock is up:

12. Milwaukee Brewers: Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut

The first of two picks, Milwaukee can almost bundle them if it so chooses, starting with Barnes in this spot.

15. Milwaukee Brewers: Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, S.C.

If the Brewers believer Guerrieri will go 13th or 14th, they might take the high schooler with their first pick. This selection is unprotected.

[tstads20]

My thinking as well, Colby. If Rendon is still there at 2 and the medical records come out clear, Seattle takes him. If not, Lindor isn't so odd. I wasn't aware of the continuing shoulder problems.

 

As for the Brewers, I really like Matt Barnes with one of those picks. Good fastball and good command of his pitches are the types of things I like to hear.

 

Agreed that #15 seems like a total wildcard right now, but I wouldn't be disappointed with Guerrieri, really feeling 'eh' on Greene.

[colbyjack]

James Madison has been an interesting program to follow this year given the guys that are putting up huge offensive numbers this year for them. That is a pretty common topic of conversation trying to determine whether their success is legit. Lowery is currently ranked #103 on PG's college list.

 

Some 2nd-3rd round targets as I see it...

 

Erik Johnson, RHP, Cal -- Big bodied RHP with good stuff

Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford -- tall projectable, has been used as a reliever but has starters repertoire, fresh arm

Tyler Goeddel, 3B/OF, CA prep -- good contact bat with developing power, good overall athlete

Trevor Story/Phillip Evans/Joe Panik/Julius Gaines -- all of these guys could go between the team's 1st and 2nd rounders, but it would be nice to get a premium SS prospect

Jason Coats, OF, TCU -- had a huge year last year and was one of the best hitters on the Cape last summer, not as great this spring

Jake Cave, OF/LHP, VA prep -- good overall athlete, great arm on mound with advanced CH and good FB

Eric Haase, C, MI prep -- he shouldn't fall to the Brewers 2nd rounder, but if he does, I hope they take him

Chris Marlowe, RHP, OK St. -- really exciting arm, somewhat Thornburg-esque -- has a hammer curve

Ryan Carpenter, LHP, Gonzaga -- doubt he's there, but a great pick if he is

Sean Trent, 3B/OF, FL prep -- big arm, polished offensive skills

Matt Dean, 3B/OF, TX prep -- similar prospect to Trent

Nick Burdi, RHP, IL prep -- missed some time w/ injury, but has interesting sinker/slider combo

Burch Smith, RHP, OK -- big body with big stuff, didn't have greatest year but talent is there

Austin Wood, RHP, USC -- see Smith

Connor Barron, IF/OF, MS prep -- super athletic, rising quick

Brett Austin, C, NC prep -- good all-around C prospect

Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, FL -- college reliever has stuff to start, big arm and FB, improving breaking ball

 

The more I think about Matt Barnes, the more I like him for one of the team's picks. He entered the year as a top 10 overall selection, and while a lot of players have established themselves as premium players, Barnes has quietly had a very big college season while showing incredible command, his biggest issue entering the year, while maintaining his velo and improving his breaking stuff. The K numbers aren't there, but he is pitching much better to contact, and is also doing a much better job game-planning to exploit his opposing team's weaknesses. He's a perfect example of a player that could be a steal this year that normally would be a no-brainer to go in the top 10.

[nate82]

Colby you think Alex Dickerson could be available for the Brewers to take during the second round? I haven't heard much about him lately has his stock really fallen that far since the beginning of the spring? Or are scouts just concerned that he is a 1B/DH type of a player?

[bucksman4]

How did the Brewers get 2 first round picks?

[nate82]

1 is from not signing their first round pick last year which is the #15 pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

Dylan Covey, the young man diagnosed with Diabetes after the draft. He decided he wanted to be close to his family so he went to the Univ. of San Diego.

[YoungGeezy]

Dylan Covey, the young man diagnosed with Diabetes after the draft. He decided he wanted to be close to his family so he went to the Univ. of San Diego.

 

 

May have lucked out if this season is any indication. He will continue to get better as he adjusts to his disorder but as of right now he is a ways a away from being where a 12th pick 2-4 million signing bonus guy should be. Hopefully in 2yrs he is back on track butcan fall to Brewers as a 2nd to 5th rd pick. This season was very ugly for him. Still wish him the best

[Tedaldtada]

In the latest bit of draft news over at the Sickels Stable, there is mention of Oregon lefty Tyler Anderson:

Tyler Anderson, P, Oregon

He has a Pettite-esque pickoff move and the change is MLB caliber already with potential to be a plus pitch. His fastball has some movement and sits in the low 90’s and can touch 95, or so I’ve been heard. His slider is a good pitch and projects as a third average or above pitch. Whoever gets him in the middle of the 1^{st[/sup] round may have the fastest pitcher to reach the majors out of this draft, if they want to move him that fast.}

If all of this is true, this is who I want at 15. I love the bit about his pickoff move. That shows an attention to detail. Same with the bit about his change up. Reminds me of a lefty Odorizzi or A's lefty Trevor Cahill.

[DHonks]

tedaldtada29, when I think of an MLB-ready lefty, I always think of Jeremy Sowers. So I'm not a huge fan at this point

[Tedaldtada]

tedaldtada29, when I think of an MLB-ready lefty, I always think of Jeremy Sowers. So I'm not a huge fan at this point

I wasn't enamored by his mlb-readiness. I like the attention to detail (great pickoff move) and the good, potentially plus, change. I also like low-90's heat from a lefty. He is in a tough conference and, for pick 15, he is an appropriate talent who isn't looking to break the bank. That is why I think he is a very nice fit.

[YoungGeezy]

Once again I hate the thought of drafting college, Brewers need some young prospects outside of Rivera, Pierce, Johnson, Berard, Bucci, Hall, Stosh, Garfield, Roberts, Garcia, and Arias ( only ones under 21 in the States) We need some young, high ceiling guys to repropal this system. All these college bats and arms have not really made to much traction. You look at our trades Odorizzi, Lawrie, Escobar, Jeffress, and Cain (d&f pick) were all young, high ceiling guys, we need more of that!

 

I'd still be happy to get a bat like Mahtook or Springer but I'd prefer to stay away from the college pitching and focus on this extremely deep and talented, hard-throwing group of HS arms. This kind of draft just doesn't show up on the Brewers door step every day even more so with the 2 top 15 picks.

 

Here would be by HS Draft board

1. OF Bubba Starling--Huge fan of, I'd easily take over Bundy

2. SP Dylan Bundy- Elite HS pitcher in class

3. SS Fransico Lindor---Won't fall to us but a quality SS

4. SP Archie Bradley--- Love Bradley not a fan of the price tag

5. SP Taylor Guerrieri--Really hoping we pick him

6. C Blake Swihart---Great bat and arm strength can catch or move to RF

7. SP Daniel Norris (L) One of my other favorites in the draft, fill a huge South Paw hole in our system

8. OF Derek Fisher---I really like this kid, almost as much as I did Trout when the Angels decided to steal him from us. I'd take at 15 even.

9. SP Jose Fernandez--- Big arm, Frame like Peralta

10. SP Dillon Howard--- Has the body, velocity, and the secondary pitches

11. 3B Javier Baez---Ton of pop, have to love the bat

12. OF Brandon Nimmo--- Good bat, Good speed, Good Arm, seems to have a pretty high ceiling

13. OF Josh Bell--- Should be higher prob but not as high on him as I am Fisher, Baez, and Nimmo

14. OF Travis Harrison --- Monster Bat, Will launch moonshots

15. SP Henry Owings--- South Paw, multiple pitches, and could add more ticks as he fills out 6'6 190 body

16. 3B Dante Bichette Jr. Very polished hitter, with power and will take walks

17. C Austin Hedges--- Best catcher in the draft who will stick there for sure

18. SS Christian Lopes--- My favorite SS. Good all the way around. Great D, very good hitter, and room to add some pop

19. SP Robert Stephenson---Can touch 97, will throw strikes and attack hitters.

20. OF Charlie Tilson--- Want a fast, true lead-off #2 in order guy with a plus OF arm? Tilson is the guy.

21. 1B Nick Delmonico--- Love the Bat, don't think he will stick at catcher but would like to have if somehow fell to 2nd to us.

22. SP Tyler Beebe--- Clean mechanics, polished stuff...Vanderbilt signee

23. OF Larry Greene--- Big power potential

24. SP Dillon Maples---Great command, decent FB velocity low to mid 90s, nice curveball and change up, father was a minor league pitcher

25. Phillip Evans- Strong Arm but not always on the money, nice speed, quick wrist

 

Dwight Smith, Mike Kelly, Billy Flamion, Tyler Greene, Joe Ross would round out top 30

[chickinbrickin]

Once again I hate the thought of drafting college, Brewers need some young prospects outside of Rivera, Pierce, Johnson, Berard, Bucci, Hall, Stosh, Garfield, Roberts, Garcia, and Arias ( only ones under 21 in the States) We need some young, high ceiling guys to repropal this system. All these college bats and arms have not really made to much traction. You look at our trades Odorizzi, Lawrie, Escobar, Jeffress, and Cain (d&f pick) were all young, high ceiling guys, we need more of that!

 

I'd still be happy to get a bat like Mahtook or Springer but I'd prefer to stay away from the college pitching and focus on this extremely deep and talented, hard-throwing group of HS arms. This kind of draft just doesn't show up on the Brewers door step every day even more so with the 2 top 15 picks.

 

Here would be by HS Draft board

1. OF Bubba Starling--Huge fan of, I'd easily take over Bundy

2. SP Dylan Bundy- Elite HS pitcher in class

3. SS Fransico Lindor---Won't fall to us but a quality SS

4. SP Archie Bradley--- Love Bradley not a fan of the price tag

5. SP Taylor Guerrieri--Really hoping we pick him

6. C Blake Swihart---Great bat and arm strength can catch or move to RF

7. SP Daniel Norris (L) One of my other favorites in the draft, fill a huge South Paw hole in our system

8. OF Derek Fisher---I really like this kid, almost as much as I did Trout when the Angels decided to steal him from us. I'd take at 15 even.

9. SP Jose Fernandez--- Big arm, Frame like Peralta

10. SP Dillon Howard--- Has the body, velocity, and the secondary pitches

11. 3B Javier Baez---Ton of pop, have to love the bat

12. OF Brandon Nimmo--- Good bat, Good speed, Good Arm, seems to have a pretty high ceiling

13. OF Josh Bell--- Should be higher prob but not as high on him as I am Fisher, Baez, and Nimmo

14. OF Travis Harrison --- Monster Bat, Will launch moonshots

15. SP Henry Owings--- South Paw, multiple pitches, and could add more ticks as he fills out 6'6 190 body

16. 3B Dante Bichette Jr. Very polished hitter, with power and will take walks

17. C Austin Hedges--- Best catcher in the draft who will stick there for sure

18. SS Christian Lopes--- My favorite SS. Good all the way around. Great D, very good hitter, and room to add some pop

19. SP Robert Stephenson---Can touch 97, will throw strikes and attack hitters.

20. OF Charlie Tilson--- Want a fast, true lead-off #2 in order guy with a plus OF arm? Tilson is the guy.

21. 1B Nick Delmonico--- Love the Bat, don't think he will stick at catcher but would like to have if somehow fell to 2nd to us.

22. SP Tyler Beebe--- Clean mechanics, polished stuff...Vanderbilt signee

23. OF Larry Greene--- Big power potential

24. SP Dillon Maples---Great command, decent FB velocity low to mid 90s, nice curveball and change up, father was a minor league pitcher

25. Phillip Evans- Strong Arm but not always on the money, nice speed, quick wrist

 

Dwight Smith, Mike Kelly, Billy Flamion, Tyler Greene, Joe Ross would round out top 30

 

There is more and more talk that Lindor may slip to 13th or later. If he would fall to the Brewer's I would be pumped. Not exactly sure why his stock is falling, but everything I hear says the sky is the limit for this kid.

 

[paul253]

There is more and more talk that Lindor may slip to 13th or later. If he

would fall to the Brewer's I would be pumped. Not exactly sure why his

stock is falling, but everything I hear says the sky is the limit for

this kid.

 

 

I'm just wondering where you heard this from? I was under the impression his stock was going up and that Seattle might take him at #2 over Rendon.

[heresrobin]

I'm sort of digging either Taylor Jungmann or Tyler Anderson at that No. 15 pick if the Brewers feel the need to go college player due to signability issues. I know what everybody says about Jungmann - maxed out with only No. 3 starter upside, but at some point it sort of gets hard to ignore the results. He's dominated at every step of the way for an elite program. His success in tournament games including CWS games has been stellar - if I'm not mistaken, he's like 6-0 in about 40 innings of work in tournament games. And I'll definitely defer to the people who pay more attention to this stuff than me, but somebody convince me why the Brewers shouldn't take him with either their No. 12 or No. 15 pick. What am I missing with this guy?

[ListachRides]

There is more and more talk that Lindor may slip to 13th or later. If he

would fall to the Brewer's I would be pumped. Not exactly sure why his

stock is falling, but everything I hear says the sky is the limit for

this kid.

 

 

I'm just wondering where you heard this from? I was under the impression his stock was going up and that Seattle might take him at #2 over Rendon.

KLaw had Lindor ranked 12th in his most recent top 100 and wrote that Lindor was slipping and could last until the teens. He then projected the Diamondbacks to take Lindor at 7 in his mock a week later, but implied he was their fallback option for that pick. If Lindor is indeed the backup plan but not the preferred choice for a number of top 10 teams that would suggest its conceivable he falls to the Brewers. I expect reports on teams' preferences will change repeatedly over the next 2 weeks so who knows?

 

As for Jungmann, I've no objection to taking him with the unprotected pick at 15, though it would be nice if he was paired with a higher upside guy (like Guerieri) at 12. I don't mind going the college route in round 1, even if the prospect only has a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter or starting caliber position player, both of which have considerable value. It's in rounds 2-5 (depending on the draft) where you start seeing college guys who only project as back-end starters, relievers, 4th OFs and utitility IFs that I think it makes more sense to gamble on high school guys who have more room to make a significant leap in physical ability/skill development. This being an especially deep draft in college arms, that may not be a concern until round 3.

[YoungGeezy]

Like it has been mentioned many times you can't be scared at 15 and draft for signability. Remember Brewers are not loaded with extra picks like in 08 & 09 so that opens up some, money, Covey's money from last year is still out there im guessing (it was to late to spend elsewhere) and Brewers do an excellent job signing their top picks (had Covey locked up til the physical). They have know since August they were going to have 2 top 15 picks and I am guessing have budgeted for it. There are evey few guys that Id 100% say no to at 15 and that is Bradley (to much leverage with Football) and Purke. The rest I think are not major risks. Why pass up on a high ceiling guy like a Guerrieri, Swihart, Fisher, Baez, Norris and etc. to be safe. Take BPA, and hopefully a young one at that.

 

LETS GO SEID!!! Time to re-engergize this farm system!!! Go youth!!!! Joel Pierce and Osmel Perez needs some friends to help develop the next great Brewer wave!

[colbyjack]

Colby you think Alex Dickerson could be available for the Brewers to take during the second round? I haven't heard much about him lately has his stock really fallen that far since the beginning of the spring? Or are scouts just concerned that he is a 1B/DH type of a player?

 

He could fall to the team's 2nd round pick. He's having a good, not great spring, as his power is down (although so are a lot of other college hitters due to the new bats). He's somewhat one dimensional as a hitter with power, as he's likely restricted to LF or possibly even 1B down the road.

 

Tyler Anderson and Jeremy Sowers are two different kind of pitchers. Sowers was your prototypical crafty lefty, who I liked quite a bit coming out of both high school and college. Obviously he didn't pan out, but just because he didn't doesn't mean Anderson won't. Anderson is actually getting his degree after only three years in college, and is a very driven and determined young man. If he doesn't succeed it won't be because of a lack of effort.

 

Nick Faleris of DiamondScapeScouting saw him earlier this spring and took some good video of him:

 

 

As for Jungmann, the fact that he does project as a #3 starter affects his draft status. Plus, there is some effort on his arm and a noticeable head-snap. He uses an upside-down takeaway (part of the 'inverted W' that is frowned upon), although so do Purke, Gray and several other pitchers. So, there could be some future injury risk and his ceiling is limited. That said, I agree that he has won from day one since stepping on Texas' campus, and falls under the near MLB-ready category.

 

I personally don't think signability will play as big of a factor for the Brewers 2 picks. As noted, they don't have extra picks, and they've known since last summer that they would have an extra pick, meaning the likely have budgeted appropriately. They may not go over slot for whoever they take, but I don't buy the rumor last week that Larry Greene could be their pick. Most of the people I spoke to about that don't think Greene is worthy of a first-round pick, although the Brewers reportedly aren't/weren't the only ones that were possibly considering him for a first-round pick.

[LouisEly]

you can't be scared at 15 and draft for signability.

 

It's not so much signability as it is that if a player and his agent knows that the pick is unprotected they know they have the upper hand in negotiations and don't have to budge on their signing demands. It's that the Brewers may end up having to pay a lot more than that player/slot is worth to sign the player, and that takes away money from other HS picks that have college commitments like a Gennett or a Brooks Hall that they might need that money to sign.

 

Thanks for the feedback on Lowery. If he was anything other than a LH-hitting catcher with supposedly good defense/arm (with the possible exception of a LH-hitting SS with good defense) I wouldn't think as much of him. But being a LH-hitting catcher with supposedly good defense/arm I'd be really tempted to pull the trigger on him in the 4th/5th round, possibly 3rd.

 

One other guy I'm intrigued by is Dante Bichette Jr. Colby, do you think he'll be around for the Brewers 2nd round pick or is his commitment to UGA pretty solid and going to make it difficult to sign him? The Brewers could use another 3B prospect as Taylor Green has kind of fizzled out a bit and the only other prospect is Mike Walker.

 

I'd be really happy with two pitchers at #12 and #15, Bichette or a SS prospect in the 2nd round, a CF or SS prospect in the 3rd, and Lowery in the 4th.

[DHonks]

Colby, if you could take a look at my post on the last page regarding my students, I'd love to hear the latest thoughts. Also, I spoke with one today--Nick Valenza--and he says some teams are talking to him about the top 5 rounds, other teams are saying 6-10. The Brewers have said that they have a round in mind, and if he's available then, they're taking him.