2011 General Draft Discussion

[narwhalattack]

According to Jim Callis, Bundy is looking for 6 years and 30 mil. Do you see him falling in the draft because of his asking price?

 

And I wouldn't be surprised if Lindor isn't available by the time the Brewers pick, with SS with great defense is tough to find

[colbyjack]

Yeah, Bundy's asking price was circulating at the event I was at today. He, Starling and Archie Bradley were among the topics of conversation. That said, Bundy has really put himself in special company this year. Big asking prices always scare teams away, but all three have no business going to college (similar to Karsten Whitson -- he could be pitching in low-A right now).

 

Lindor shouldn't be around at #12, my point is that I wouldn't be surprised to see him taken in the top 2-5.

[narwhalattack]

What do you think of Amir Garrett? I heard that he's still very raw, but a 6'6 lefty with mid-90s fastball seems very promising in my opinion.

[colbyjack]

He's a very interesting wildcard to the draft. You don't see this type of prospect make such a late arrival to the draft discussion, a two-sport athlete (with basketball being the primary sport prior to recent reports) with upside similar to Antonio Gates' development in the NFL. I think everyone is trying to catch up to get info on him, which makes it a little difficult to share an informed opinion of him.

[sfl2hnq17]

After reading about Daniel Norris, I would go crazy if the brewers got him at 12. No lefty to speak of in the prospect mold in the lower levels. Passing on him would be a mistake.

[YoungGeezy]

Add Guerrieri @ 12 and Norris @ 15 add them to the Joel Pierce and Brooks Hall pitching group. Im sick of all these college pitchers as of late. Right now our system is full of low level 22-23 yr old guys (many of whom are not as dominant as they should be and those who are that are critized because they are to old for the leage). He have such a shortage of young pitching. Above Rookie ball, Stosh is 20 in A, Bucci is 20, Lasker and Nieves is 21 in A+ and Peralta and Scarpetta are 22 in AA. (Rogers and Rivas are 25 and the youngest in AAA) Not saying that it is awful, thing I like the wave that are coming and we should turn out a couple of big league pitchers but why not focus on refilling or rebooting the system with some young high ceiling pitchers.

 

The same goes for young Bats, Seid has been loading up on all these college bats and and has really not went after young HS hitters.

2010

Yadier Rivera (9)

Kevin Berard (22)

 

2009

Cameron Garfield (2)

Max Walla (2)

Tyler Roberts (10)

Scooter Gennett (16)

Demetrius McKelvie (25)

 

7 signed HS bats (unless I missed some) in last 2 years as compared to 27 college signed hitters (good amount were roster fillers)

 

Dante Bichette Jr is a guy id love to get in the 2nd if he is still around

[narwhalattack]

Agreed. I don't agree with the "draft the college guys because they come up through the system faster" philosophy. I'd prefer that the Brewers draft high-upside HS players.

[And That]

The Brewers are probably going to use relatively high draft picks (top 15 rounds) on college position players (especially infielders) simply because they have to field a competitive team in Helena. Between Helena and the Arizona roster that we know of (i.e., not counting young Latino players who are stateside from the DSL), the Brewers have 2 or 3 guys that play the infield: Joey Paciorek, Kyle Dhanani and Kevin Berard. That's it. I would imagine Hitaniel Arias will play for Arizona or Helena as well, but he's just a 1B.

 

I agree, though... I too hope the Brewers generally gravitate towards high school kids. The system needs to be rebuilt, not patched with limited ceiling college guys.

[YoungGeezy]

The Brewers are probably going to use relatively high draft picks (top 15 rounds) on college position players (especially infielders) simply because they have to field a competitive team in Helena. Between Helena and the Arizona roster that we know of (i.e., not counting young Latino players who are stateside from the DSL), the Brewers have 2 or 3 guys that play the infield: Joey Paciorek, Kyle Dhanani and Kevin Berard. That's it. I would imagine Hitaniel Arias will play for Arizona or Helena as well, but he's just a 1B.

 

I agree, though... I too hope the Brewers generally gravitate towards high school kids. The system needs to be rebuilt, not patched with limited ceiling college guys.

See i see it the exact opposite because you can field a competitive team by loading up on college late round picks like Hopkins, Vucinich, Shaw, Rogers and etc. I figure Roberts & Rivera will be sent down once the season starts because both so far have been overmatched in A and are still pretty young. They have a quality OF with Walla, Allison, Stang, Bivens. So load up on young guys 4 Arizona early and fill the Helena roster with later picks.

 

Seid really needs to focus on building a young, energized, high ceiling system. Right now his approach has got us to having the worse system in baseball (the trade killed use but those were all Jack Z guys) I like Bruce but really would like him to go very young this draft. With all the extensions, its not like we need all these guys NOW, so take the highest ceiling prospects, load up on youth, and develop them.

[And That]

Bivens was released, and who knows what Allison and Walla will do in Helena? Could be boom or bust. And then there's next year. Hopkins, Vucinich and Shaw all stink.

[And That]

You need an ESPN Insider subscription to read more about it, but Keith Law has the Brewers drafting Taylor Jungmann and Mikie Mahtook. The more I've looked at Jungmann, the less I like him. Mahtook is a decent idea for 15.

[battlekow]

You need an ESPN Insider subscription to read more about it, but Keith Law has the Brewers drafting Taylor Jungmann and Mikie Mahtook. The more I've looked at Jungmann, the less I like him. Mahtook is a decent idea for 15.

About Jungmann:

This is the Brewers' normal pick, so they could go over slot here for Jungmann or George Springer.

And Mahtook:

I've heard [Cory] Spangenberg here, and they did send a small army to see Larry Greene last week, although two sources told me he's not the leading candidate for this unprotected pick. All three of those players would likely agree to slot here.

He has Spangenberg going with the previous pick to the Marlins. We talked about Mahtook a bit last month in the other thread; colby wasn't a fan of taking him.

 

[narwhalattack]

I don't like the Jungmann pick at all. I've heard too many times that he's a mid-rotation starter. The Brewers have plenty of mid-bottom-rotation starters in the farm system. They need frontline starters.

[DHonks]

I'm in the group that craves young (HS) talent. I'm tired of college players not panning out. I would focus the first 15 rounds on high school pitchers and hitters from all levels. After 15, I'm fine with a mix of players, especially college hitters. We'll need to draft 3-4 shortstops along with our usual 3-5 catchers, too.

[And That]

I'm thinking that they're looking at Greene for the 2nd or 3rd round selection. I just can't believe they would reach so far in the first round in such a deep draft.

 

Jungmann's violent head snap at the end of his delivery makes my neck sore to look at, his mechanics aren't very clean and his third pitch, a changeup, is questionable. I like that he attacks the zone and all, but there's too much that makes me pause about him to think it would be a good idea at 12.

 

I'm thinking 15 might end up being a college position player, but Wong instead of Mahtook.

 

I'd like a HS player at 12. I love Swihart, but a pitcher would be ok, too. I've soured on Baez quite a bit.

[brewmann04]

I really hope we get the best Possible Pitcher @12 whether it HS or College we need a top of the rotation guy.

[YoungGeezy]

To me Taylor Guerrieri may be the best available. I have read all over he could have been the top hs pitching prospect ( hatd to buy better than Bundy) if he had more consistant prior to this season. He is there we need to jump

[narwhalattack]

Guerrieri definitely sounds like a good idea for the 12th pick. Already hitting 98, with room to grow, and with a plus breaking ball

[brewerguy71]

I really hope we get the best Possible Pitcher @12 whether it HS or College we need a top of the rotation guy.

 

 

Matt Barnes or Archie Bradley are your guys then. Heck they could probably get both if they wanted to forgo taking a bat in the first round.

[brewmann04]

Brewerguy Is Bradley a 2 sport guy?

[brewerguy71]

He is, has a QB scholarship to Oklahoma or something like that.

[battlekow]

Kevin Goldstein has (free) write-ups on his top 20 draft prospects. Some of the guys we've talked about:

8. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (SC)

Pros: Guerrieri's 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame is the kind that scouts like to dream on, and he has consistently reached 97-98 mph with his fastball while sitting comfortably at 92-96. His power curveball is already a plus pitch that has torched high school hitters.

Cons: While his arm action is clean, his overall delivery is sloppy, too mechanical, and too complex. He hasn't needed a third pitch on the South Carolina high school circuit, so his changeup will need development.

9. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas

Pros: Jungmann has performed under the spotlight all spring with a ridiculous 0.86 ERA in 104 2/3 innings. He has excellent command of a low-90s fastball and a slow, looping curve. He gets a nice downward plane on his pitches thanks to a 6-foot-6 frame. He should reach the big leagues in short order.

Cons: Star-level upside is questionable based on his stuff, and he rarely throws his below-average changeup. He has not missed as many bats in college as one would expect from a top-flight starter.

10. George Springer, OF, Connecticut

Pros: It's rare to find college players with Springer's kind of tools and athleticism. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, he grabs your attention the second he walks off the bus, and his power, speed, and arm strength all earn 60-plus grades on the scouting scale.

Cons: Springer has plenty of holes in his swing, and there are questions about just how much he'll hit. He has reduced his strikeout rate significantly this spring, but he's still prone to chasing and often gets beat inside.

13. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt

Pros: Gray generates plenty of swings and misses with a low-90s fastball, but his true out pitch is a plus-plus curve that some think is the best in the draft. He's a bulldog-style pitcher who attacks hitters, understands his craft, and knows how to set up hitters and get them to chase.

Cons: If Gray was 6-foot-3, he might be a top-five pick; the stuff is certainly there, but he's less than six foot tall, has far from the easiest delivery, and leaves scouts wondering about his ability to throw 200 innings per year. Based on shorter-stint performances in summer leagues, he could end up a late-inning reliever with mid-90s heat and that wonderful breaking ball.

17. Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU

Pros: Mahtook is one of the few college hitters with a breakout season despite the new bats. Good swing mechanics and a patient approach have him hitting .371/.482/.691 in 52 games for the Tigers, and his 13 home runs represent more than 40 percent of his team's total. He has average-to-plus power to all fields, but he's not just a slugger; he's a 50-55 runner who is playing center field and has a good arm.

Cons: Few think he can play an up-the-middle position in the big leagues, so Mahtook's bat will have to develop to profile as a corner outfielder. He's more of a guy with no real weaknesses than one with star-level tools.

19. Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River JC (FL)

Pros: Spangenberg is the best junior college player in the country and has been flirting with a .500 batting average for much of the spring. He has outstanding bat speed and an intrinsic feel for contact. His well above-average speed makes him dangerous on the basepaths.

Cons: He's not a good defender at any infield position, and scouts expect him to move to center field as a pro. He lacks the strength to project for more than gap power with 10-12 home runs per year.

20. Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii

Pros: He just drives opponents nuts with his ability to reach base and then cause trouble with his baserunning ability. He works the count exceptionally well and laces line drives all over the park when he gets his pitch. Think of him as Wally Backman with more gap power and no platoon issues. Excellent performances in the Cape Cod League leave scouts confident his abilities will translate.

Cons: He's just 5-foot-9, so there isn't much to project, and he's merely an adequate defender. Second basemen are always a risk because they either project as big-league starters or they aren't prospects.

[TooLiveBrew]

8. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (SC)

Pros: Guerrieri's 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame is the kind that scouts like to dream on, and he has consistently reached 97-98 mph with his fastball while sitting comfortably at 92-96. His power curveball is already a plus pitch that has torched high school hitters.

Cons: While his arm action is clean, his overall delivery is sloppy, too mechanical, and too complex. He hasn't needed a third pitch on the South Carolina high school circuit, so his changeup will need development.

How common or uncommon is it for HS prospects to need as much work on delivery as it sounds like Guerrieri might? All I can think when hearing HS prospect with a huge FB, great breaking pitch, & messy mechanics is Mark Rogers.

[And That]

Guerrieri and Rogers have/had different mechanical issues coming out of high school. Rogers did (and still does, to some extent) throw across his body, putting tremendous stress on his arm. The Brewers felt the need to radically overhaul Rogers' entire pitching motion, to obviously poor long-term results.

 

Guerrieri has a pretty clean, 3/4 arm slot delivery. He has a few little hitches that need to be cleaned up, leading to his plant leg coming down late and his arm coming through late, which leads to command problems. There's nothing to radically alter here, and IMO Goldstein is being a bit hyperbolic in his analysis of Guerrieri's delivery "issues." It's clean and repeatable, just needs to be tweaked.

 

The biggest knock against Guerrieri might be some off the field problems that have teams researching his character a little bit.

 

Here's a pretty good view of his delivery:

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, Toby. I got the impression the mechanical stuff was different for Guerrieri than it was for Rogers (the "arm action is clean" note). Sounds like nothing more than many prospects would go through, in terms of changes to delivery.