2011 General Draft Discussion

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks Patrick. I hope these are the kinds of contributions/updates you can continue to lend to Brewerfan. I think we'll gladly send some traffic PG's way http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Keep an eye on PG's draft page later this afternoon for Rawnsley's second mock draft. I think people would be pretty happy if draft day shook out the way he has it going...

 

And for the record, he got the Ben Sheets comparison from me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[battlekow]

Rawnsley:

12. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Sonny Gray, rhp, Vanderbilt

I have frequently compared Gray to former Brewers all-star Ben Sheets, so slotting him here is irresistible. Many scouts will think this is too low for the Vanderbilt star, but that’s a reflection of the overall talent level in this draft, not a negative reflection on Gray.

15. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (For failure to sign 2010 first-round pick Dylan Covey)

George Springer, of, Connecticut

The Brewers’ already-thin farm system was gutted this off-season for seasoned starting pitching to win this year in the big leagues, so the organization is in a “best prospect available” mode. That means a player like Springer, a high-ceiling, 5-tool type talent.

Getting Gray sure would be nice.

[And That]

I'd think about Swihart over Springer there, but it would be hard to be disappointed by that haul.

[TooLiveBrew]

Many scouts will think this is too low for the Vanderbilt star, but that’s a reflection of the overall talent level in this draft, not a negative reflection on Gray.

 

This draft is exciting.

[tstads20]

I've heard some say this could rival the 2005 draft in talent, but that's saying a lot considering the results from that draft thus far. If Alex Gordon continues his breakout year, it makes it look that much better.

 

Still, plenty of reasons to be excited about this one.

[battlekow]

Baseball America's first mock draft is up (comments are subscriber-only):

12. BREWERS: [/b]Milwaukee lost out on one of the best high school arms in the 2010 draft, Dylan Covey, when he discovered he had Type 1 diabetes and decided he'd be better off adjusting to his condition while attending college. The Brewers can make up for that by getting their pick of any of the prep pitchers except for Bundy, such as righthanders Taylor Guerrieri (South Carolina) and Archie Bradley (Oklahoma) or lefty Daniel Norris (Tennessee).

Projected Pick: [/b]Taylor Guerrieri.

15. BREWERS: [/b]Georgia prep outfielder Larry Greene has the best raw power in the draft and is attracting interest from a handful of teams in the first round. One of those is Milwaukee, which should be able to sign him easily for MLB's slot recommendation for an unprotected pick received for the loss of Covey.

Projected Pick: [/b]Larry Greene.

[paul253]

Larry Greene? I hate the terms "raw" and "should be able to sign him easily" when talking about Brewer draft picks. The Brewers need the most talented player in the system, not the cheapest. The fact that teams have been dealing with these "signability" issues for years now just underscores to me how pathetic the MLB draft has become. The TB Rays, who won the AL East, get 10 picks before the Pirates, the worst team in baseball, get their second pick. Something about that just screams BS to me.

 

Anyway, as far as the picks go, I just can't get on board with an outfielder right now, especially one who would be picked for signability reasons. I'd rather take the best available pitcher over the best available outfielder. I'd also be ok with someone like CJ Cron or Blake Swihart. I am really, really crossing my fingers that Lidnor falls but I can't see it happening. Other than that though, I think you have to go for pitching. Since we seem to be a little more well of pitching prospect wise than hitting prospect wise, I think you can go with a couple of HS pitchers who may take longer to develop but may have a higher ceiling.

[battlekow]

I hate the terms "raw" and "should be able to sign him easily" when talking about Brewer draft picks.

I definitely hate the idea of a signability pick too, but we're probably going to have to live with it at 15 because the pick is unprotected.

[YoungGeezy]

12 is the risky pick where the Brewers can go out a take anyone with signability issues (a Starling if not gone, Archie Bradley, & so on) at 15 you need to know you stand a good chance of signig the guy. Doesn't mean he needs to be a bumb not worth the pick...this is an extremely deep class they just can't take a person who is extremely commited to college ball or has a shot to be a stud football player at 15. You look at the draft, it so deep that a lot of guys like Springer could go top 5 or 10 or fall to top 20.

 

Another Plus...draft is loaded with good high-ceiling SS even after Lindor is gone Christian Lopes would make me pretty happy.

[paul253]

I definitely hate the idea of a signability pick too, but we're probably

going to have to live with it at 15 because the pick is unprotected.

 

I understand you can't take someone who is not likely to sign for anything even remotely close to slot but that doesn't mean you have to take someone who would otherwise go in the 30s just because you don't want to spend an extra million dollars. The farm system is in terrible shape and this is the best shot you have at revamping it. You can't ruin that chance by being cheap.

[RyDogg66]

I agree 100% with paul.

[battlekow]

No one disagrees with paul. But saying what the Brewers should do and predicting what they will do are different things.

[And That]

I really don't think the Brewers are going to take a signability guy with #15. What I think they will do is target a guy or two whom they think will likely be there at 15 - e.g. Swihart, Cron, Baez, Wong, Mahtook - and talk to them, to make sure that they are in the same ballpark for a contract. Obviously there are no guarantees that the guy will sign, but they will take the necessary precautions without reaching out of the first round in a tremendously deep draft class.

 

Which is why I don't believe they'll draft Larry Greene.

 

I can definitely dig Guerrieri at 12, despite the Brewers' ineptitude at developing HS pitchers.

[YoungGeezy]

Yeah no one is saying draft some 2nd rate player, you take most talented player is somewhat signable. U can not take Bradley @ 15 because if he goes and plays football Brewers pisses away a huge pick. Also this draft is deep as heck, it is very hard to be caught majorly reaching.

 

Big fan of Guerrieri some say he is 2nd best available if he'd be more consistant, id love Norris or Bradley as well. This draft will be crazy, who knows how it will play out.

[DHonks]

no offense, but I'm reading things terribly different from others. It's possible to be a) raw/toolsy, b) best player available, and c) signable.

 

I don't think that these are mutually exclusive as others seem to be indicating. Remember, Prince was raw/toolsy, arguably the best player available, and quite signable.

[narwhalattack]

I really hope that Bundy falls to the Brewers. If not then Guerrieri will be a good pick as well. Archie Bradley would also be a good pick, if the Brewers can and are willing to sign him, though.

[colbyjack]

Interesting news on Larry Greene. He's limited to a OF corner or possibly even 1B down the road, but I've been impressed with him in the past. While his power potential is his best tool, he's a pretty good athlete for his size (he's strong as an ox), consistently hits line drives and knows how to square up the ball.

 

Since Archie Bradley was brought up (one of my favorite prospects eligible for this year's draft, but an unlikely target of the Brewers given his $6M asking price) my PG mates Ben Collman and Todd Gold were at his most recent start as he propelled his team to the OK state championship vs. Dylan Bundy's Owasso team (Bundy didn't pitch). Check out the story, which includes some video:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5650

 

No way Bundy falls to the Brewers. Guerrieri is intriguing as his velocity often gets better as a game progresses. That's a very good sign for future success, as he was 90-93 last summer, touching the mid-90s, and has been 93-96 this year touching 97/98.

[HiAndTight]

no offense, but I'm reading things terribly different from others. It's possible to be a) raw/toolsy, b) best player available, and c) signable.

 

I don't think that these are mutually exclusive as others seem to be indicating. Remember, Prince was raw/toolsy, arguably the best player available, and quite signable.

Nobody's saying they're mutually exclusive, but when you look at sign-ability as your primary concern, that's troubling.

 

Also, being "raw and toolsy," in an process that already has an incredibly high potential for busts is just an additional concern.

[WV Brew]

www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals- ... _blog.html

 

Link for the Nats draft ideas. Interesting that teams like the Rays may face money issues because they have so many picks. Could be they will draft for signability some of these picks?

[narwhalattack]

What would you guys think if the Brewers draft Guerrieri 12th and Meyer 15th?

[ListachRides]

I don't doubt the Brewers are interested in Greene, but in a draft this loaded I have a hard time thinking there won't be better options available. Hopefully they see better players on the board and take the chance he falls to them in the second round.

 

Additionally, if given a choice between raw, high-upside players, I'd much rather gamble on the player with a chance to play a demanding defensive position. I just can't support taking a guy like Greene, who will be relegated to LF or 1B, over Baez, for example, who if everything goes right could play a plus 3B to go with a plus bat.

[colbyjack]

Keep in mind that with the rumored changes to the draft after this season there are a lot of players out there, regardless of their agent affiliation, that are rumored to be looking for big money. This could be the last year they have the opportunity to do so. I confirmed today that Bubba Starling wants Bryce Harper money, and Archie Bradley wants money north of what Zach Lee got last year ($5.25M). Their scenarios are a little different since they have football to contend with, but I have heard there are a lot of players out there that know their value relative to the draft that are going to be asking for a lot. This is the time of year in which those aspirations are discovered, and as I believe someone else noted, the Rays are already looking at all of their extra picks wondering how they are going to sign them all. Look for them to take some players not usually associated with the top 1-3 rounds, kind of like the A's did I think in 2002.

 

Remember this name for the early rounds: Eric Haase, a prep catcher from Michigan.

[narwhalattack]

Hey Colby, if the Brewers were to draft a prep pitcher, then who do you see them drafting?

[colbyjack]

I could see them going with Guerrieri, Norris or possibly even one of either Jose Fernandez or Robert Stephenson.

 

I had the conversation today that in any other Dylan Bundy would be talked a lot about more for the #1 overall pick (and there is some buzz out there that the Pirates could go that direction) and guys like Archie Bradley and Taylor Guerrieri would never slide out of the top 10. While it looks less and less like Rendon and Cole are the slam dunks they were thought to be entering the spring scouting season, the emergence, or at least the consistent improvements, of college lefties such as Danny Hultzen and Jed Bradley have helped to stabilize the top of the class.

 

In what is considered a strong year, I could see a lot of surprises at the top. I think the overall depth is proving to be this draft's strength, and not necessarily the talent available at the top. That is what makes it different from 2005, or even 2008, when so many impact college bats were available (I believe BA had a story on the same thing the last day or two). That is why I don't think it is as surprising that big bats like CJ Cron or Larry Greene could be targets of the Brewers (although I agree with the point above about taking Javier Baez instead, although he may not even be available).

 

One player that I think has to be taken at #12 if he's there is Francisco Lindor. I'll put my Casey Kotchman stamp of approval on that pick (hopefully with better results http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif). However, Lindor is another player that could surprise some people by how high he could be taken. It's just a really hard year to project.