2011 General Draft Discussion

[colbyjack]

Gray is going to continue to have skeptics due to his size. I love his stuff, as he has arguably one of the best 1-2 punches in the game, as he's consistently 90-94 with a hammer curveball, and can dial it up to 96-97 in the early innings. I have compared Gray to Ben Sheets in the past, as Gray for the most part is a 2-pitch pitcher.

 

Bauer touched 95 this past weekend, and has a similar big bender. Both are incredible competitors, and Gray is a good athlete overall who can swing the bat a little too.

 

Jim Callis revealed yesterday that Esposito is another player that will be advised by Boras. Check out his AskBA segment for all of the players he's aware of at this point in time:

 

http://www.baseballameric...ask-ba/2011/2611319.html

 

Related to this subject, I usually get asked which players the Boras Corp. will be advising in the draft. Known Boras advisees include Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon (No. 1 on the Top 50), UCLA righthander Gerrit Cole (No. 2), South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley (No. 7), Starling, Searcy (Ark.) High righty Dillon Howard (No. 20), Jesuit College Prep (Dallas) outfielder Josh Bell (No. 21), Vanderbilt shortstop Jason Esposito (No. 26), Miami Dade outfielder Brian Goodwin (No. 28), Kentucky righty Alex Meyer (No. 34), Hedges, Georgia outfielder Zach Cone (No. 50), Stanford lefty Brett Mooneyham, Southern California first baseman Ricky Oropesa, Arizona State first baseman Zach Wilson and Cal State Fullerton righty Noe Ramirez.

 

That's a pretty long list of prospects, and since this year's draft likely will be the last without some kind of revised slotting system, these players undoubtedly are going to be asking for a lot of money. The draft overall is so deep, some players are going to have to fall regardless of their affiliation, which is why I don't think it would be a big surprise that Owens is at the tail end of the first round.

[paul253]

If Sonny Gray fell to that point in the draft (13th) the Brewers would be insane to pass on him.

The one thing I would be concerned about with Gray, and I am only getting this from the scouting report I read off of the website, is him ending up in the bullpen. If the Brewers really feel like he can stick in the rotation I'd be thrilled to get him. But I wouldn't ever want to make a first round pick, particularly one so high, on someone who is likely to be a reliever.

After losing Covey last season they need to select college-pitching in this ultra-deep once-every-seven-year-type drafts.

 

I used to think that they should draft at least one hitter, maybe even two, with their top two choices due to what I consider a real lack of top tier hitting prospects in the system once Lawrie got traded. But now I am definitely thinking they should go pitcher-pitcher with their top two picks. This draft is as deep in pitching as any draft in recent memory. If you can get a pitcher would be usually be a top 6-7 pick with the 15th pick, you have to go for it.

[ListachRides]

Law's got a new top 50 up at ESPN for insiders only:

 

http://insider.espn.go.co...eith&page=FutureFifty2.0

 

To me, Alex Meyer just screams Brewer pick. Tall guy with power stuff and control problems who is finally producing results in his draft season - just sounds like he hits all of the scouting department's erogenous zones. That's not an endorsement, more of a nagging fear actually. The unprotected pick at 15 is harder to predict, but the guy I'd keep an eye on is Brandon Nimmo. As a raw, toolsy position player lacking conventional amateur competition, he reminds me a bit of the Lawrie and Max Walla picks, along with the Brewers' reported interest in Anthony Hewitt during the Lawrie draft.

[colbyjack]

Coincidentally enough, Nimmo was profiled in my most recent Dandy Dozen that went live earlier this evening:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/...-dandydozen-3-22-11.html

[nate82]

colby I was just going to ask you about McCann. Do you think he will slip into the 2nd or 3rd round if his offense doesn't improve this year? I know he has been doing good lately but I am still not sold on his ability to hit at the major league level. His defense and leadership looks as though he would be ready to play in the majors right away at catcher. Also if the scouting reports I have been reading about Bradley lately are correct shouldn't his stock be dropping even further with the possibility of him not being able to play CF. If he can't play in CF his bat doesn't really play all that well in a corner spot and he doesn't really have speed so am I missing something here on Bradley?

I know it is rather early but do you believe that the Brewers could get Bell? I like Bell the most behind Lindor but I believe he will be gone well before the Brewers pick.

[colbyjack]

McCann might slip to the 2nd round, I would doubt the 3rd. Catchers are frequently drafted higher than expected given the demand for them.

 

Who doesn't think Bradley can play CF? And who doesn't think he has speed? He may not steal a ton of bases, and I don't like that he thinks he's a power hitter at times, but he is one of the more polished players available for this year's draft.

 

Bell would be a good pick for either of their first-round picks, but I don't see it happening given the Boras connection. I haven't heard how Bell has been faring this spring, but he was stellar to close out 2010, and is one player that entered the year with relatively quiet draft pub. He and Derek Fisher are among the best high school positional prospects along with Lindor, Baez (another player on the rise), Swihart and Starling. Starling only falls due to money, Lindor is looking like a top 10 pick, and people may be surprised by how early Baez goes.

[ListachRides]

Colby, thanks for the great work over at 5 Tool Talk, I read every update you post. Baez is very intriguing. What position do you see him playing? I prefer both Baez and Fisher to Nimmo, who I mentioned earlier because he struck me as Brewer-type pick. I was impressed by this interview I found with Fisher http://yankees.scout.com/2/1056616.html.

[nate82]

Who doesn't think Bradley can play CF? And who doesn't think he has speed? He may not steal a ton of bases, and I don't like that he thinks he's a power hitter at times, but he is one of the more polished players available for this year's draft.

A friend of mine who is a scout doesn't like Bradley at CF but he has been wrong before about things like this. He doesn't really like his speed and his potential for power. I am not sure I agree with the assessment that he gave me but I have concerns over Bradley. I don't think the Brewers would shy away from a Boras guy if he is the best player available at that time and they thought they could sign him.

If Dickerson is still available in the second round wouldn't that be a good gamble on the Brewers side to take him if he is available in the 2nd round. I don't think he will last beyond the compensation picks as I think the Rays would take the risk on a player like that.

[colbyjack]

Thanks ListachRides, I appreciate your support (and I've always loved the handle). I've been told that Baez is looking pretty good at shortstop this spring and is making some rather athletic plays. He didn't play there last year, and is doing so this year since the team's starter is injured (or something else happened). Baez usually plays third base, and a lot of people, myself included, just kind of assumed he couldn't play short. Whoever was playing SS ahead of him must have been pretty good there.

 

And if he doesn't play SS, he could play just about anywhere else he wants, including behind the plate, which has been tossed around (but would be a waste IMO).

 

I DVR'd last night's South Carolina game and just got done watching it. I was reminded by just how smooth Bradley is in CF, taking perfect routes and angles to fly balls. His head doesn't bob and he keeps his eye on the ball as he follows it. He didn't have a chance to show off his arm, but I've seen it before, and it's another plus tool.

 

He does have a propensity to swing for the fences as I mentioned before, and while SC was playing the College of Charleston (in a butt-kicking), Bradley put a nice swing on an outside fastball going with it the other way for a 3-run home run in the 2nd inning. It was a good sign of his bat speed as well as the strength in his hands and forearms.

 

He has a patient approach, which leads to BBs and Ks alike, and he isn't afraid to hit with 2 strikes. I like him quite a bit, and as noted above, I think he's one of the most polished and complete draft-eligible prospects out there.

[LouisEly]

I'll never argue with drafting pitching because you can always trade pitching. Same kind of goes with catching. Don't know that I could get behind spending a first round pick on an OF this year. I think you can get OF bats later in the draft. Gamel was a 4th, Hart a 10th, Cain a 17th, Gindl a 5th, Schafer a 3rd, Komatsu an 8th, Khris Davis a 7th. They don't necessarily need to go SS in the first round, but if they don't I think they need to draft about six of them in the first 20 rounds with half of them college guys who have the potential to move up quickly.

 

Daniel Norris at #12 and Blake Swihart at #15 would be dandy as far as I'm concerned.

 

Oh yeah, and they HAVE to draft Dante Bichette, Jr.

[paul253]

I am hoping they go pitcher-pitcher, unless for some reason Lidnor falls. If he does, you have to take him. I just think with the depth in this draft class where you have to opportunity to get two pitchers who would ordinarily be top 10 picks you have to do it. With the shape the system is in though, I'm just hoping that they sign both picks, whoever they are.

[DHonks]

I like the idea of drafting pitching. Given that we have Hart, Weeks, Braun, CF options, Lucroy, Gamel, and McGehee for several seasons, I'm not worried about hitters right now. Yes, I miss rooting for stud hitters, but if we draft a bunch of pitchers early, we'll have plenty of time in the draft for hitters. Plus, we've now had 2 or 3 pitching heavy drafts in a row. It'd be nice of some of HS arms (like Hall and Lintz) start to pan out.

[colbyjack]

When it comes down to need, why not take an OF, especially a centerfielder? The Brewers haven't had a long-term solution in CF in a long time. We've had a lot of contenders to take that role, but no one has panned out. Lorenzo Cain was the latest to assume the role of our seemingly CF of the future, and I suppose Mr. Plush has endeared him to enough fans to lead many to believe he could be that player (along with those still holding onto Gomez putting it all together).

 

There are still options in the minors, but there isn't that one can't-miss guy at the position that leads me to believe the position can't be significantly upgraded.

 

A similar conversation could be had at shortstop, although there have been more recent options there between Hardy and Escobar.

 

That said, I agree 100% that you can never have too much pitching, but at least recently the Brewers were able to trade some key pieces, mostly hitters, for impact pitching. And that includes what they gave up for Sabathia 2+ years ago. And if you're good at something, like identifying and developing impact bats, don't get away from it.

[ListachRides]

Colby, who would be your preferred targets for CF or SS? Assuming Lindor is gone by the time the Brewers pick, is Bradley Jr. the only mid-first round option at either position or is there someone else you'd consider? Do you think he'd be safe to take with the unprotected pick at 15 despite Boras advising? That would allow the Brewers to use the 12th pick on a tougher sign such as one of the top high school arms. At shortstop do you like one of Gaines/Lopes/Michael/Story if available in round 2 or 3?

[battlekow]

Baseball America has a mock draft of sorts; it's not actually who they project teams would pick, but rather who they themselves would pick were they calling the shots:

12. BREWERS (Jim Callis)[/b]: Milwaukee has had much more success developing hitters than pitchers, prompting its offseason trades for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. With the front of their rotation looking good and their system deeper in arms than bats, George Springer makes more sense than Taylor Jungmann here. After Bubba Starling, Springer has the best tools in this draft and is the center fielder Milwaukee needs. Though his bat is his least polished tool, he has recovered nicely after a slow start to 2011.

15. BREWERS (Jim Callis)[/b]: With my second straight Milwaukee pick—an unprotected choice as compensation for not signing 2010 first-rounder Dylan Covey—I'm not necessarily looking to balance the Springer selection by taking a pitcher. If Matt Purke were 100 percent, he'd be the guy, but he also wouldn't be available at No. 15. College outfielders Jackie Bradley (South Carolina) and Mikie Mahtook (Louisiana State) are considerations, as is Daniel Norris (Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.), the top prep lefthander in the draft. But give me the best catcher available: Blake Swihart (Cleveland HS, Rio Rancho, N.M.). He's athletic, he's a switch-hitter and has more offensive upside than most players in this draft, too.

[paul253]

I know you're not supposed to draft based on need, but I don't agree with drafting an outfielder. I'd argue that four of Milwaukee's top five position prospects are outfielders (Gindl, Kentrail Davis, Komatsu, and Schaeffer) and all of them can probably play center. They also have Richardson who apparently has a lot of tools and Kh. Davis who has a ton of power potential. Couple this with both Braun and Hart being signed long term, the dearth of infield prospects and the fact that you can never have too much pitching, I REALLY hope they don't pick an outfielder in the first round. I'd be ok with Swihart though.

[ListachRides]

A potential choice between Jungman and Springer with the 12th pick would be very interesting. I'd be pretty happy with either.

[greeg35]

I know you're not supposed to draft based on need, but I don't agree with drafting an outfielder.

 

 

We all saw what having/trading good prospects can net a team this off season. I think it is imperative to draft BPA if we are going to stay strong as an organization.

[paul253]

I agree, but if BPA is more or less a toss-up, I'd go pitcher ahead of outfielder. Obviously if Milwaukee thinks Springer is far and away better than anyone else available you take him. But if there is little, if any, difference between Springer and, say, Jungmann, I'd hope they select Jungmann.

[LouisEly]

There are still options in the minors, but there isn't that one can't-miss guy at the position that leads me to believe the position can't be significantly upgraded.

The Brewers are really, really high on Logan Schafer. Great arm, above-average speed, hits lefty, and put up an .815 OPS at pitcher-friendly Brevard in 2009. He's your CF of the future.

 

I don't disagree with CF, just not in the first round. Schafer was a 3rd round pick, as was Grady Sizemore. I think you can get good OFs in rounds 3-5.

[colbyjack]

Colby, who would be your preferred targets for CF or SS? Assuming Lindor is gone by the time the Brewers pick, is Bradley Jr. the only mid-first round option at either position or is there someone else you'd consider? Do you think he'd be safe to take with the unprotected pick at 15 despite Boras advising? That would allow the Brewers to use the 12th pick on a tougher sign such as one of the top high school arms. At shortstop do you like one of Gaines/Lopes/Michael/Story if available in round 2 or 3?

 

Sorry I missed this before. SS and CF are tricky at #12 and #15 since you're not going to get Lindor, Bradley Jr. is injured (and advised by Boras), and Springer may be best long-term in RF. Javier Baez has been creating more and more noise this spring to put himself as a legitimate player to be drafted in this range, but I'm not so sure he's a SS. Gaines and Story may not make it to the team's 2nd round pick, and I'm not sure if Lopes can stick at SS.

 

The Brewers are really, really high on Logan Schafer. Great arm, above-average speed, hits lefty, and put up an .815 OPS at pitcher-friendly Brevard in 2009. He's your CF of the future.

 

The Brewers were pretty high on Darren Ford at one point in time as well. Lorenzo Cain was the most recent prospect to be thought of as the team's CF of the future, and how can you forget about Dave Krynzel? Throw Charlie Fermaint and Stephen Chapman into that discussion, and even if you are the most obscure Lee Haydel fans like SessileFielder and myself, do you really believe he's going to hit enough to be a solid everyday player? I like Schafer, but he has missed significant time the last two years due to injury. Even if you have any notion of drafting for need, how can you take solace in him, or Gindl, or Komatsu, Ke. Davis (none of whom are true CFs IMO). You could make the argument that the Brewers have been less successful developing an everyday CF in recent years than they have catchers.

 

I don't disagree with CF, just not in the first round. Schafer was a 3rd round pick, as was Grady Sizemore. I think you can get good OFs in rounds 3-5.

 

You could find an example for any player in any round to support a similar argument for a different position.

 

As for BA's mock draft, I'm surprised by how slow they are to recognize how good Dylan Bundy has been this spring. He's getting comps to Josh Beckett as one of the best prep pitchers ever. If he makes it to #11, I will seriously be surprised (and it's hard to surprise me when it comes to the draft). That said, getting both Springer, one of the most athletic and toolsy players in this draft, and Swihart, one of the best hitters, would be pretty exciting, even if you're convinced at least one of the picks should be spent on a pitcher. It's quite possible that the team's first two picks will immediately become the system's #1 and #2 prospects.

[Wesrob1]

I can go for Springer at 12 but, I'm not a fan of Jungmann's delivery and hope the pass on him. I realize that Purke is having some issues right now, but the Brewers can't possibly let him pass by if he's available at the 15 slot(Crossing my fingers!) I could see them also go for C.J Cron and would love Bauer if he's their at either pick.

[colbyjack]

I'm not so sure anyone takes Purke in the first round given his situation. He has been shut down with an ailing shoulder. The prognosis has yet to be determined, but for a guy that was asking for $6 million two years coming out of high school, who is going to take that risk? His velocity has been down this year, and there already were concerns about his delivery. I love his approach and the way he pitches, but there are enough red flags for every team in baseball to pass on him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return for his junior year (he's draft-eligible this year as a sophomore).

[paul253]

I'm just really excited about this draft. I'll probably be ok with anyone they pick so long as it's not a reach or a player they pick for signability reasons. Springer, Jungmann, Swihart, Norris, etc. I'd be ok with all of them. Ideally you get an SS in the second round.

 

The Brewers were pretty high on Darren Ford at one point in time as

well. Lorenzo Cain was the most recent prospect to be thought of as the

team's CF of the future, and how can you forget about Dave Krynzel?

Throw Charlie Fermaint and Stephen Chapman into that discussion,

 

The problem I see with this argument is that guys like Ford, Fermaint, and Chapman never hit well at any level. Lorenzo Cain probably would be the Brewers CF right now but they needed to trade him in order to land one of the best pitchers in baseball. Krynzel....I don't know how to explain him, he just couldn't put it together in the majors. Schaeffer can hit, and has hit at every level he's played at. I'm more worried about his health than his hitting. I'm confident that either he or Komatsu will turn out. Komatsu is raking in Huntsville right now and should be in Nashville by the end of the year. He may very well be Milwaukee's starting centerfielder next season.

[colbyjack]

I obviously think CF is a much bigger organizational need than some have made it out to be. The team has only had one regular CF that was procured entirely from within the system since Robin Yount, and that was Daryl Hamilton, who didn't even play a full season, in 1995. I like both Schafer and Komatsu, but I'm not as confident as you are to think either one will be the team's CF of the future. I hope so, I just don't think so.

 

Thanks to Toby for tweeting about the launch of Perfect Game's draft coverage. If you haven't checked it out, be sure you do so, as there will be regular features up on the site every day leading up to the draft, and most of it will be available for free.

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/

 

Today you can join the 2pm chat with PG scouting director David Rawsnley and college baseball guru Kendall Rogers:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5555