2011 General Draft Discussion

[narwhalattack]

how about getting Barnes, Henry Owens, and Dillon Maples through the span of the 1st and early 2nd round? And which is more likely: getting Barnes, Jungmann, or Archie Bradley for the 12th pick?

[colbyjack]

Bradley is the most likely to fall to 12, due to his dual-sport commitment to Oklahoma (check out this story I wrote on the subject). Jungmann is a legitimate candidate to be among those considered for the first overall pick, and if Matt Barnes continues to trend upward, I don't think he'll make it out of the top 10.

[narwhalattack]

Bradley is the most likely to fall to 12, due to his dual-sport commitment to Oklahoma (check out this story I wrote on the subject). Jungmann is a legitimate candidate to be among those considered for the first overall pick, and if Matt Barnes continues to trend upward, I don't think he'll make it out of the top 10.

if the Brewers do draft Bradley, then I will be both thrilled and worried. Thrilled because I know he is a talented pitcher, worried because I know he'll demand a lot of money, possibly more than the Brewers are willing to pay him

[Tbadder]

Based on value I hope the Brewers continue to go heavily in the direction of pitching. I'd guess you could get two nice hitting prospects for the price of one nice pitching prospect.

And I really hope they don't reach for a shortstop just because it's an organizational need.

[brewmann04]

i always like pitching but ss is a major need here on the brewers depth chart.

[narwhalattack]

I think the Brewers should get a shortstop in the later rounds, or maybe they should get an international ss

 

by the way, an interesting pick for the Brewers would be Dylan Bundy. A HS pitcher with low-90s heat with a hard curveball at 79, according to Baseball Beginnings. Similar to Covey, but hopefully without the diabetes. Also would be cheaper than Archie Bradley, I think

 

other pitchers of interest: Michael Kelly, Jose Fernandez, Robert Stephenson

[colbyjack]

The 2011 draft crop stands to get a little stronger, as it has been learned that Brian Goodwin will be eligible for the 2011 draft.

 

Here is a report I did on Brian Goodwin here on these forums a couple of years ago. He's long been a favorite of mine, and I'm pretty excited about his availability, and think he would be a good fit for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks (especially if they're looking for a relatively quick sign with the Covey compensatory selection). Miami-Dade's season (and many to most of the warm weather jucos) starts at the end of January, roughly 3 weeks before the beginning of D1 baseball.

[ramssuperbowl99]

The 2011 draft crop stands to get a little stronger, as it has been learned that Brian Goodwin will be eligible for the 2011 draft.

 

Here is a report I did on Brian Goodwin here on these forums a couple of years ago. He's long been a favorite of mine, and I'm pretty excited about his availability, and think he would be a good fit for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks (especially if they're looking for a relatively quick sign with the Covey compensatory selection). Miami-Dade's season (and many to most of the warm weather jucos) starts at the end of January, roughly 3 weeks before the beginning of D1 baseball.

How does Lindor at 12 and Goodwin at 15 sound? We get better defensively, really toolsy, and address the two spots vacated by the Greinke trade while not reaching for either. Then we can go after some high quality HS pitching later in the draft (especially because the upper minors have a good mix of sleepers with upside).

Any guys we should be looking at in the 2nd or 3rd round?

 

[narwhalattack]

The 2011 draft crop stands to get a little stronger, as it has been learned that Brian Goodwin will be eligible for the 2011 draft.

 

Here is a report I did on Brian Goodwin here on these forums a couple of years ago. He's long been a favorite of mine, and I'm pretty excited about his availability, and think he would be a good fit for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks (especially if they're looking for a relatively quick sign with the Covey compensatory selection). Miami-Dade's season (and many to most of the warm weather jucos) starts at the end of January, roughly 3 weeks before the beginning of D1 baseball.

How does Lindor at 12 and Goodwin at 15 sound? We get better defensively, really toolsy, and address the two spots vacated by the Greinke trade while not reaching for either. Then we can go after some high quality HS pitching later in the draft (especially because the upper minors have a good mix of sleepers with upside).

Any guys we should be looking at in the 2nd or 3rd round?

 

I'd rather get the pitchers first. Even though the upper minors have guys with upside, there's really no guarantee that they'll turn out well. I mean most of these guys are projected to be mid- bottom of the rotation starters. There's some good pitching talent in the draft and it's better to get the pitchers early and then settle for the position players later. Usually the guys at the 1st round are the guys with the most upside. I'd rather see the Brewers go after high upside pitchers instead of position players

 

[colbyjack]

I would take two bats in the first round just because I feel as though you have a better bet to get an impact bat in round one, and it's easier to find arms, or at least have more luck with arms exploding, past the first round than you do with hitters. I'm also a big fan of Blake Swihart, Derek Fisher, Jackie Bradley, Jr. Bradley in particular could be in Milwaukee within 2 years, as his defense and intangibles aren't going to slow him down one bit.

 

GT's Jed Bradley is one of my favorites among the pitchers that may be available at 12 or 15.

 

It's hard to project the 2nd and 3rd rounds at this point, because so many players in that range could move one way or the other pretty significantly. Among some hitters, Daniel Camarena and Dan Vogelbach could be interesting prep first basemen. Vogelbach is the second coming of Prince Fielder, and I personally like Camarena's ability at the plate probably more than most. Prep infielder Sean Trent, TCU outfielder Jason Coats, St. John's SS Joe Panik and Virginia 3B Steven Proscia are also among some of my faves.

 

Some college pitchers in that area include Adam Conley, Logan Verrett, Sam Stafford and Noe Ramirez. Philip Pfiefer, John Magliozzi, Bryan Brickhouse and John Curtiss are a handful of talented prep arms that could be in that range.

 

If the Brewers get a sandwich pick should Hoffman sign elsewhere, that opens another discussion about a huge pool of players that currently project to go somewhere between #15 overall and the team's 2nd round pick.

 

Locals that could factor into the early mix include two players from the Chicago area, Nick Burdi and Charlie Tilson, as well as Brendon Hayden from Twin Lakes.

[narwhalattack]

I would take two bats in the first round just because I feel as though you have a better bet to get an impact bat in round one, and it's easier to find arms, or at least have more luck with arms exploding, past the first round than you do with hitters. I'm also a big fan of Blake Swihart, Derek Fisher, Jackie Bradley, Jr. Bradley in particular could be in Milwaukee within 2 years, as his defense and intangibles aren't going to slow him down one bit.

 

GT's Jed Bradley is one of my favorites among the pitchers that may be available at 12 or 15.

 

It's hard to project the 2nd and 3rd rounds at this point, because so many players in that range could move one way or the other pretty significantly. Among some hitters, Daniel Camarena and Dan Vogelbach could be interesting prep first basemen. Vogelbach is the second coming of Prince Fielder, and I personally like Camarena's ability at the plate probably more than most. Prep infielder Sean Trent, TCU outfielder Jason Coats, St. John's SS Joe Panik and Virginia 3B Steven Proscia are also among some of my faves.

 

Some college pitchers in that area include Adam Conley, Logan Verrett, Sam Stafford and Noe Ramirez. Philip Pfiefer, John Magliozzi, Bryan Brickhouse and John Curtiss are a handful of talented prep arms that could be in that range.

 

If the Brewers get a sandwich pick should Hoffman sign elsewhere, that opens another discussion about a huge pool of players that currently project to go somewhere between #15 overall and the team's 2nd round pick.

 

Locals that could factor into the early mix include two players from the Chicago area, Nick Burdi and Charlie Tilson, as well as Brendon Hayden from Twin Lakes.

But because there is no guarantee that Greinke's gonna sign in Milwaukee long term, I think that the Brewers should stock up on arms. There's gonna be a lot of pitchers in the 1st round who have great talent, and it'll be a shame to miss drafting them. Are bats needed? of course! But buying bats is easier than buying arms, and growing arms drafted from the 1st round would put the Brewers on solid foundation in terms of the farm system. As for defense, yes it's tougher to find them in the market, but with great pitching, the defense would only have to be average, right?

[colbyjack]

I should have re-phrased my comment from above in which I said that I would take two bats in the first round. I should have said that I would support taking two bats in the first round.

 

You could make an argument for any combination. All I know that after spending a lot of premium picks on pitchers over the years, the Rays certainly wish they had an impact bat or two to turn to these days. It's not always so easy to say that finding replacement bats is easier, or cheaper. You need to do a good job developing all kinds of talent to succeed.

[colbyjack]

I expanded my top 50 prospect list to 100 yesterday:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/...pects-top100-1-9-11.html

[colbyjack]

With Trevor Hoffman retiring, and Kevin Gregg signing with the Orioles, there are only six unsigned free agents that could effect the 2011 draft order. One of them, Carl Pavano, is expected to re-sign with the Twins, which would reduce the 'worst-case' scenario sandwich round to 29. Last year, the sandwich round lasted only 18 picks. Two years ago, 16.

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/...fadraftcompensation.html

 

Bummer for the Brewers regarding Hoffman, but congratulations to him on his Hall of Fame career. I'm grateful he finished it with the Brewers.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Really good work colbyjack! I appreciate all this stuff, just so I have an idea on what the draft will be like.

Any chance that we see a Wil Myers type fall for Archie Bradley? We've seen guys fall out of the top 10 down to the 3rd round before.

Also, a guy I really like is Michael Kelly. Velocity isn't everything, but good lord can that kid throw hard. I'd feel really good about getting him too.

[colbyjack]

I've written before that both Bradley and Bubba Starling could fall due to their potential 2-sport careers, coupled with what Zach Lee got last year from the Dodgers when everyone thought he was a lock to attend LSU. Starling has made things more interesting by aligning himself with Boras.

 

On the flip side, sometimes it is more appealing to teams to take such a player knowing they can spread their bonus over 5 years, making it less of an initial blow.

 

That said, the Brewers have yet to make that big of a splash in the later rounds of the draft. They have made more modest ones like Gennett, Howell or even how they used to handle their DFE candidates. I'm not saying that is what you were suggesting, that the Brewers may hit the jackpot with someone like Bradley in the 3rd, but I'll believe a scenario like that when it happens based on the team's history.

 

I too like Kelly (and Bradley) quite a bit, and he's one of the more projectable pitchers available in next year's draft. I wrote him (and Bradley) up here in my breakout of some of the more impressionable Aflac All-Americans, as well as here in my Dandy Dozen reports.

[colbyjack]

Since we're closer to the 2011 draft than the 2010 one, I figured it was time to un-stick the 2010 topics, and added those links to the first post of this thread. I will be sure to add the final draft order once the last potential compensatory pick related free agent signs, and also will be revising my mock draft at that time.

[colbyjack]

Felipe Lopez is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Rays, meaning the final draft order has been determined.

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/...der-finaldraftorder.html

[sheetskout]

Brushing up on the potential 2011 draft, I have been speculating on how the Brewers are going to use their selections. As I see it they have no real choice to me other than to go pitcher-pitcher with the twelfth and the fifteenth. I would be absolutely thrilled to see Sonny Gray fall to that level because of questions regarding his size, but I don't think that'll happen.

 

The Brewers would be smart to go college pitcher-college pitcher with the picks. I would be against drafting any young position players unless their names are Starling or Bradley. I don't believe in signing high-school, first round catchers so for me Swihart is out.

 

My bet right now is that Bauer, Barnes, Hultzen, or Gray is one of the two selections. I would be open to one of the two being a high-schooler as well but I would go big with the "ultraprojectable" Henry Owens or more polished Archie Bradley.

 

I want to see two pitchers atop the Brewers top-ten prospects next season.

[paul253]

I think you have to take at least one position player, ideally a shortstop. But if the best players available are both pitchers, I have no problem taking two pitchers.

[colbyjack]

I revised my mock draft last Friday since the draft order has been finalized. A pair of prep players, LHP Daniel Norris and OF Derek Fisher were the picks at #12 and #15.

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/2011-mockdraft-2-11-11.html

[paul253]

I don't know much about Derek Fischer but I'd be thrilled with Daniel Norris. Colby would Jason Esposito be too much of a reach at 15? I'd love a college bat with that second pick.

[colbyjack]

I have a report on Fisher up at 5 Tool Talk under the Dandy Dozen archives if you're interested in learning more about him. And no, I don't think Esposito would be a reach, and think he could be a player the Brewers legitimately target there. Not only does he have a good bat, but he also runs and plays defense well.

[paul253]

I did find those scouting reports on the players and spent a good half hour reading them on numerous players. Thanks for all the hard work!

[sheetskout]

I revised my mock draft last Friday since the draft order has been finalized. A pair of prep players, LHP Daniel Norris and OF Derek Fisher were the picks at #12 and #15.

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/2011-mockdraft-2-11-11.html

If Sonny Gray fell to that point in the draft (13th) the Brewers would be insane to pass on him. Gray has top-five potential. I actually think Gray and Bauer should be flopped here and the Brewers will target Bauer. After losing Covey last season they need to select college-pitching in this ultra-deep once-every-seven-year-type drafts.

 

I would be super-surprised to see Owens last until the 33 overall and Esposito should go higher as well. I don't feel, however, that college bats are the first need as we have Davis, Morris, and a couple others waiting in the minors.