2011 General Draft Discussion

[TooLiveBrew]

Man, the D-Backs must be equal parts excited & nervous about this draft. They could really make a big-time impact with those two picks, given how deep this year's class is regarded as being.

[Roderick]

Money not spent this year simply becomes profit and increases the value of the franchise. It doesn't carry over into next years budget.

 

Yes, net income does become retained earnings. That does not mean that the club can't budget to make money one year and lose money (and use retained earnings) the next year. If that is your plan, than yes you can "carry over" your budget or restrict that share of retained earnings for next year costs.

[uwisfan]

depressing watching the Crew underplay all year, and now its depressing watching them finish strong when it only hurts them.. way to go, Crew..

[colbyjack]

My weekly column up at PG today focuses on the depth of left-handed pitching available for next year's draft:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5030

 

Left-handed pitching IMO is the Brewers most lacking asset in their system. Zach Braddock, Daniel Merklinger, Del Howell, Jon Pokorny and Chuck Lofgren are the only lefties on the P50, and Braddock, who looks like he will continue his career as a reliever, is the only one before Merklinger checks in at #35. Lofgren barely made the cut, and Pokorny also projects as a reliever.

 

While I don't think any team should simply draft a pitcher because they are left-handed, I wouldn't be surprised to see a greater emphasis placed on this. Not too long ago the system was pretty light on left-handed bats, and now the system is fairly loaded with them (Ke. Davis, Gennett, Morris, Dennis, Komatsu, Gindl, Schafer, Green, Haydel), as I'm pretty sure that wasn't an accident.

[uwisfan]

Brewers have lost their spot to the Astros, who are competing with the Cubbies for that 9/11 spot now.

 

I dont know how the tiebreakers play out, but hopefully we lose the finale and avoid the possibility of dropping from 12 to 14. A win by the Dodgers & Marlins today would mean its safe to root for the Crew in the finale..

 

EDIT: with the Marlins win tonight and the Dodgers leading, it looks like the Crew will be picking at #12..and we can safely root for a Brewer win over Cinci tomorrow

[trwi7]

Tiebreakers are based on last year's record. Whoever had the worst record the previous year between the two tied teams gets the highest pick. The Marlins and Dodgers both had better records than us, so we would've gotten the higher pick had we been tied.

[trwi7]

Now that the season is over we have the official draft order.

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. Seattle Mariners

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Kansas City Royals

6. Washington Nationals

7. Arizona Diamondbacks (for failure to sign 2010 1st round pick Barret Loux)

8. Cleveland Indians

9. Chicago Cubs

10. San Diego Padres (for failure to sign 2010 1st round pick Karsten Whitson)

11. Houston Astros

12. Milwaukee Brewers

13. New York Mets

14. Florida Marlins

15. Milwaukee Brewers (for failure to sign 2010 1st round pick Dylan Covey)

16. Los Angeles Dodgers

17. Los Angeles Angels

18. Oakland Athletics

19. Detroit Tigers

20. Colorado Rockies

21. Toronto Blue Jays

22. St. Louis Cardinals

23. Chicago White Sox

24. Boston Red Sox

25. San Diego Padres

26. Texas Rangers

27. Cincinnati Reds

28. Atlanta Braves

29. San Francisco Giants

30. Minnesota Twins

31. New York Yankees

32. Tampa Bay Rays

33. Philadelphia Phillies

[brewmann04]

we wnt from 9th to 12 in a week what a waste rather have the higher draft pick than the wins

[paul253]

I am really excited about the draft with 2 picks in the top 15. I really, really hope the Brewers don't go cheap on the second pick for signability concerns and end up drafting a reliever or something. Spend the extra million or so and get someone with a higher upside.

[brewmann04]

i am very sure they will do their homework this draft is very impotant to the brewers future.

[colbyjack]

I just want to point out that there is a difference between spending slot value for a pick and going cheap. The Brewers wanted to spend slot value, or slightly higher, on Covey, and he was the #14 pick (and Lawrie went 16th in '08). Good players can be had at #12 and #15 even if the team doesn't break the bank for players that fall due to their financial demands.

[paul253]

I understand that. What I meant is that I hope they don't select someone at #15 who probably shouldn't go until the 40's because they think he'll be easier to sign than someone with more talent. In other words, I hope they go with best player available with both picks, not best player available who I think we can sign for what we want to sign him for.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I understand that. What I meant is that I hope they don't select someone at #15 who probably shouldn't go until the 40's because they think he'll be easier to sign than someone with more talent. In other words, I hope they go with best player available with both picks, not best player available who I think we can sign for what we want to sign him for.

The first round is important, and I hope we don't take a supplemental player 15th overall. I doubt we will, Melvin has always been pretty good about taking prospects right around where they should go - Covey was a top 20 talent, so was Lawrie, so was Arnett.

The area where the Brewers need to go get some guys with upside is the 2nd-5th rounds and beyond. While we went out and got Jimmy Nelson, who projects as an innings eater, the Pirates got upside-filled Stetson Allie, the Nats got AJ Cole and his 95 mph fastball, etc. etc. Let's go get some of those guys so that if we don't sign our 1st round pick, the whole draft still has some upside.

 

[logan82]

We lose the #15 pick if we don't sign the guy. If we don't sign the #11 guy we will get the #11 pick the next year.

[filthyfrog]

I agree that the Brewers need to take the top available players, but we have to be realistic. Drafting a high-profile high schooler with an unprotected pick is a big risk. I think it's safe to assume the 15th pick will be someone they're very confident they can sign. If you look at recent unprotected picks, I think most of them have been "safe" picks.

[colbyjack]

We lose the #15 pick if we don't sign the guy. If we don't sign the #11 guy we will get the #11 pick the next year.

 

Minor nitpick, but if we don't sign the guy at #12 (check the revised/finalized draft order above), the Brewers will get the #13 pick in 2012.

 

As for safe picks, signability and the Brewers two first-round picks, the Crew proved in both the 2008 and 2009 drafts that they budged appropriately and signed each and every one of their early picks for slot value. I fully expect them to do the same next year, and will have something like $1.9M for the #12 pick and $1.7M for the #15 pick. I don't think they'll have to reach too far to find a player they like that will sign for $1.7 or so million, but certainly they're likely going to be a little snake-bitten by what happened this past year.

 

However, keep in mind, that the Brewers are known to like certain players more than most teams. They took first-round picks such as Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Mark Rogers higher than where most thought they would go, even if all of those players were heavily linked to the Brewers prior to their respective drafts.

 

Don't forget the Brewers were reportedly heavy on prep lefty Jesse Biddle prior to the draft, as well as Luke Jackson. Biddle went late first last June and Jackson went in the sandwich round. These are the type of players that the Brewers may target with that #15 pick, and I'm actually not opposed that they take a risk on a guy they really like, a guy they know won't make it to their 2nd round pick, knowing they have that pick at #12 as well.

 

Basically, just because top prospect lists provided by the usual suspects may not support a certain pick at a certain place doesn't necessarily mean its a bad pick.

 

On the flip side, historically they don't dabble with players that fall much further than they should. You may not like that fact, but expecting that (and I'm not saying anyone is) is unrealistic.

 

Not related to anything being discussed, but not really worthy of its own thread, but D-Backs scouting director and former Brewers crosschecker Tom Allison was fired:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2965

[logan82]

Minor nitpick, but if we don't sign the guy at #12 (check the revised/finalized draft order above), the Brewers will get the #13 pick in 2012.

 

Oops. Good to know.

[LouisEly]

If they go somewhat conservative with #15 because of signability, I would be all in favor of them going after a top college bat with that pick, preferably one that can play on the left side of the infield. Or find the next Lawrie.

 

I'm in favor of BPA, but I think they need to lean quite a bit towards SS early as they have nothing in the system. A JJ Hardy-type 2nd round pick would be fantastic, or break the bank on one who slips into the mid-rounds like Gennett (but actually projects long-term at SS).

[paul253]

I am usually not in favor of high school pitchers, but two high ceiling HS pitchers who can throw mid 90's would be nice. I know it's probably unlikely they'd take a HS pitcher with the second pick because they have to sign the player they take. I agree with Louis, an SS would be nice too. As much as I think we could use some bats in the system, I think history shows that you need pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The 2009 draft with the two Davis's and Gennett produced some nice results last year. So ideally, I'd like two high ceiling HS pitchers, but I also think BPA is always a good way to go.

[brewmann04]

I just hope the Brewers hit it big with these 2 picks it mean alot to the organzation.

[colbyjack]

My Perfect Game colleague Allan Simpson has been working hard to compile scouting data for the top prospects for the 2011 draft. Here's the beginning of his hard work, a lead-in to some of the stories to watch between now and next June, as well as a link at the bottom to the top 100 prospects (81 of which I have seen play):

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5049

[colbyjack]

I always stress the importance of not drafting for need, but after dealing Escobar, the Brewers have a pretty gaping hole at SS. I think this entire offseason has proven that shortstops in general are at a premium, and as we've talked about a lot over the years, shortstops in general are typically the best athletes on the field.

That said, after dealing Escobar I think the Brewers need to aggressively find their SS of the future, even if that means 3-5 years down the road. Francisco Lindor immediately becomes one of my favorite targets for the Brewers first pick (#12 overall) in next June's draft.

[filthyfrog]

Having two picks so close together offers the luxury of using one to fill a need and one to find the best player available. As long as it's not a huge stretch, I have no problem with straying from the BPA strategy for one pick.

[madbad2000]

I've never been a big fan of not taking BPA. I don't care if the pick is not protected. Take BPA and pay like you would for any other 1st rounder.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing a SS drafted but I'd rather see best bat available taken at both slots unless there are obviously better pitchers available. My preference would be for the impact stick. Our minors can fit any impact bat in at any position.

 

My list of top three positions of need would probably be along the lines of SS, 3B, Corner OF.

 

SS for obvious reason

3B since they are so valuable and by the time they are ready it will be McGehee decision time

Corner OF because it will be Hart/Braun decision time when ready.

 

I like to focus on these positions because they are more movable positions. SS can be moved to 2b, CF, etc. 3B can probably play corners and 1b, Corner OF can play 1b as well.

 

I like to get catchers but it is so hard to find an impact stick that can stay there.

 

HS Vs College...take impact ceiling. That is what 1st round is for. Highest ceiling and highest impact. Don't go cheap and negate the value of doubling your chances of impact from your first rounder.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've never been a big fan of not taking BPA. I don't care if the pick is not protected. Take BPA and pay like you would for any other 1st rounder.

 

And ironically, the Covey situation backs up this stance. Teams can miss on signing a player for any kind of fluky & unpredictable reason.