2011 General Draft Discussion

[TooLiveBrew]

And wow, I don't envy the D-Backs, with the #7 overall being unprotected. That could lead to an ugly pick.

[Bankjob]

Really hoping for Gray @12. As for 15, Tyler Anderson seems to be getting late buzz. I am hoping for Guerrieri, Springer or Mahtook. Gray and Guerrieri would be my preffered picks.

[And That]

...and here are my predictions/odds for the 15 pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for the work on those writeups, Toby. Nicely done.

[And That]

Baseball America's final mock draft has the Brewers taking Baez at 12 and Guerrieri at 15.

 

Interesting that they have us passing on Gray and Anderson for Guerrieri.

 

Lindor went to the Astros at 11. Guh.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think I'd rather see the Brewers take Gray, but I'm curious what the character issues you keep referring to about Guerrieri actually are.

 

Gray sounds like a 'safe' pick to me in the sense that his stuff looks like he has a very good shot to be an impact player. Whether it'd be as a SP v. RP is the uncertain part. He's not a safe pick in just the signability sense, the sense it's typically used in.

[And That]

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his final mock draft up, and is going with Baez at 12 (shocking!) and Gray at 15.

 

That's about the best realistic scenario the Brewers would be hoping for.

[heresrobin]

This guy attempts to predict who will have the best chance to succeed at the MLB level among college position players:

http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/06/05/2011-rendon-leaders

 

Jace Peterson from McNeese St. sounds a little bit like a Brewers pick to me.

[ListachRides]

Kevin Goldstein projects Baez and Gray. Piliere thinks the Mets like Gray but if they pass, sounds like it could be realistic for Brewers.

Toby beat me to it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here's the most informative snippet I can find on the character concerns' regarding Guerrieri:

 

"Questions about the switch in schools and Guerrieri's makeup persist among scouts, who declined to discuss it on the record. Guerrieri brushes all of it off as nonsense."

 

Scouts won't even talk about it on record? Can it really be that big of a deal?

 

 

And Baez+Gray or Baez+Guerrieri would be a very nice haul.

[patrickgpe]

i find it interesting to read in Goldstein's mock that their are rumors that the crew may already have a pre-draft deal in place with Baez.

[TooLiveBrew]

To be fair, what he said he's hearing is that the Brewers have a pre-draft deal in place. Not that it's necessarily with Baez, but to then go on & project Baez as the pick... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[And That]

Scouts won't even talk about it on record? Can it really be that big of a deal?

I would interpret the statement that scouts won't talk about it on the record as a bad thing, not as an absolution.

 

Edit: But like I mentioned in the linked piece, some teams think his personal issues aren't a big deal. I don't know which side of the fence the Brewers are on.

[reillymcshane]

For what it's worth, this was an interesting approach to drafting at the top by Jim Bowden.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/t...he-gms-role-in-the-draft

 

He argues that top 5 pitchers are less likely to succeed than top 5 hitters.

[YoungGeezy]

If Brewers have a pre-draft deal with a high school payer already that is huge! I really hope that this year not everything is forced to go to the wire. At this point I think I'm Trout type heart broken if we don't get Baez. I was so excited for Trout then the Angels one pick before stole him and left us with Arnett...hate to feel that pain again ha

[TooLiveBrew]

I would interpret the statement that scouts won't talk about it on the record as a bad thing, not as an absolution.

 

That's a good point. Just seems to me that if so much talk is going to be floated about his character/reputation, it should be backed up instead of just being behind the scenes. That's just me, though.

[RyDogg66]

Dont like the idea of a predraft deal at picks 12 or 15. Tells me they are reaching for someone they know will be available because they have no business being drafted that high.

[And That]

Baez could go before the Brewers pick. He isn't a reach by any means.

[RyDogg66]

Right, so why work out a deal with a guy who could be long gone? I know Baez isnt a reach, but they didnt say the deal was with Baez either. Just that the Brewers had one in place.

[And That]

Verbal agreements, or at least verbal parameters, are made a little more often than you think. It gives the team a certain comfort level taking a guy, reach or not, that they know they can sign. And many don't even come to fruition because the guy is taken earlier than expected. Teams may even have verbal agreements with more than one guy at a certain spot.

 

I wouldn't read too much in to it.

[YoungGeezy]

How does it effect you if you have a deal in place and the guy goes earlier? It has zero effect. Win scenerio if you get him because he is signed, if he is draft well you just go back to square one with the next guy.

[RyDogg66]

Then I feel better if it is common to have these verbal agreements and have a guy taken ahead of the team. I just didnt know that they did it often with guys who could go before their pick. Thought it was done with a guys who were projected to be late rounder but taken mid round for a slightly better deal than they would get late round but cheaper than slot value.

[And That]

It is done for that reason, too. But not only for that reason.

 

I'm not worried about the Brewers doing a "signability" reach pick, especially at 12.

[trwi7]

First round begins at 6 Central, not 7 as it says in the title.

[ListachRides]

This was just posted at Bernie's Crew

 

[uPDATE 1:11 PM]

 

>> Received an email from a source who said the Brewers "covet" 3B/SS Javier Baez. He says the Brewers will absolutely grab him if available -- but SS Francisco Lindor could throw the draft board up in the air, if available.