2011 General Draft Discussion

[colbyjack]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I have a friend who works as an advance scout for Vanderbilt. I asked him about Sonny Gray. He said he likes him, but he wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a reliever because he really only has two pitches. He likes him in the closer's role in the future--said he's really competitive and has that "mentality," whatever that is.

 

What I found more interesting were his comments on another Vanderbilt pitcher, Grayson Garvin. He's a 6'6" lefty, which gets your attention right away. Here's what my buddy had to say: "I think he would fly through the Brewers' system. Coach Corbin says he is better than Mike Minor at this point in their careers." He is projected to go Supplemental/2nd round, but he's hearing the Yankees like him with their first pick.

 

That's pretty much the book on Gray, and that's exactly why I compared him to Ben Sheets. Remember when Sheets was a Brewer and he was constantly questioned as a started because he only used two pitches? That's Gray. Sheets too was often scrutinized in a similar fashion, with people wondering why he didn't throw a changeup more, or why he didn't try to throw a 2-seamer more than he did, with some wondering if he would be best used as a closer. Gray can succeed, like Sheets, with those two pitches. He maintains his velocity well, not only deep into games, but on a game-by-game basis.

 

Garvin was the focus on our (Perfect Game) 50 in 50 scouting profile today. He's the exact opposite of Gray in that he has a more projectable frame, throws more, different pitches for strikes but doesn't overpower batters with anything he has in his repertoire. I personally take Gray 10 times out of 10 if I had the chance, not to take anything away from Garvin, but that's why one is considered for the first half of the first round and the other is a sandwich to second round pick.

[Oxy]

It would be neat to get Vanderbilt's Son Gray in the first round and Vanderbilt's Grayson in the second round.

[heresrobin]

My potentially realistic Brewers wishlist for the 1st Round:

Bats: Fransisco Lindor, Javier Baez, or CJ Cron

Pitchers: Sonny Gray, Taylor Jungmann, or Taylor Guerrieri

And I have a slight lean on the Bats listed above before the Pitchers. I would like Archie Bradley before any of them, but I'm not sure it's as realistic that he'll be there. I'm not totally sold on guys like Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes, George Springer, or Mike Mahtook.

[tstads20]

I like that list, but I actually wouldn't mind Springer if we landed him. We'll see though, I'm sure a lot of us have our fingers crossed for Lindor to fall, though I've really warmed up to the idea of Baez in the last couple days. I love bat first guys, but it'd really be nice to get someone whose glove isn't a liability.

 

The slight lean on bats is understandable, I just read an article today discussing why it's smarter to go for a hitter early in the 1st round instead of a pitcher, since most pitchers from the top ten picks don't pan out at all. You can read it here if you'd like. It's an interesting point to be made too, since many are expecting 4 of the first 5 picks tomorrow to be pitchers.

[jmeks23]

Hey guys, long time reader first time poster.

 

My ideal draft would probably be Lindor and Guerrieri. Baez I wouldn't mind either, but the Brewers severely lack SS depth organizationally and Lindor projects to be even better at SS (bat and defense) then Escobar did which I like. Baez would be nice specifically for a bat, and maybe if he could maintain defensively could be a Troy Tulowitzski type of player. I'm not a huge fan of Cron as he's mediocre at basically everything but the bat, and who knows if that's enough if he can't do anything else well. 1B seems to be relatively shored up with Gamel, and Morris behind him. Not to mention free agent 1B are not too hard to come by these days. Springer and Mahtook, not a huge fan of and I'm not sold their game projects to the MLB.

 

As far as pitching there's a TON of interesting names out there, but I think Guerrieri seems like a very nice bet. Has top of the rotation stuff and has been maintaining a solid mid 90's FB. I'm not a big fan of Jed Bradley, or Alex Meyer, I think they're both busts in the making. Anderson is interesting, but not sure he could ever be a good MLB starter. Jungmann was looking nice but his last start his FB velocity was down in the 80's and I believe he got roughed up as well, not a good sign with the draft right here in front of us. A guy I've liked for a while is Daniel Norris, but he's demanding a high price I guess. Still, he has top of the rotation stuff and is a LHP, which makes him pretty valuable. Barnes is another interesting option but I'm not totally sold on him either.

 

 

Overall, in this particular draft I'd be fine with "best available talent" but I'd like them to get at least 1 pitcher as they will be severely lacking in SP in a few years, while most of their position players will still be under contract.

[heresrobin]

Thanks for the article MadtownStadley.

In other news, I just saw where Jungmann's fastball was only at 88-91 mph in his loss on Saturday against Kent St. He got blasted giving up 7 ER in 5 2/3 on 8 hits, striking out 3 and walking 2. The dip in velocity is troubling.

[SenatorShriv]

Like most of my posts in other forums - this one will add no value to the thread.

 

I just wanted to say that I'm more excited about this draft than I have been about any since 2005. Thanks to everyone who has been providing links to good articles and quality insights over the last month that I've been reading the Draft Forum!

 

Also wanted to put out an advance thank you to the BF.net staff for compiling all of the info on our draft picks. Its great to have a one stop shop!

[Cracked Bat Collector]

I went to the Vandy game last night where Garvin pitched and I liked what I saw, would be pumped if we took him. I'm no scout by any means but to me it looked like he had an easy motion and his pitches had some giddyup on them (didn't see a speed gun at the park). He seemed to throw a lot of strikes too which I like watching. Not a fan of watching guys work the corners a lot and nibbling. So pumped to see who we get!

[YoungGeezy]

More and more everyday I'm falling in love with Baez, I'd even take him over Lindor. I really like the explosive Lawrie type bat except the nice thing with Baez is that he is actually a good defender from what I have read, even at SS, the issue is from my understanding is his body will simply outgrow the postition. SS or 3B we really don't have much depth. On twitter late last night I read Lindor was going #2 to Seattle but that is just a rumor. Really curious to see where he ends up. Bell & Shihart have both send out letter saying don't draft me so that takes them completely out of talk. Last thing we need is a player holding out until deadline, missing all the rookie season and demanding a huge some of money. Lindor, Baez, Guierrieri all seem like guys who want to sign but that is from me looking in. Wrming up to Cron a little more. I compared him a lot to LaPorta but that isnt accurite since Cron is actually a great all-around hitting who has good power, where as Laporta was mostly all power. Only bad thing is Gamel, Halton, and Morris seem like pretty good depth right now and Cron doesn't have another position. I like Springer more than Mahtook because he is an all-around better athlete and player (speed, arm, quick wrist, body type, and etc) both I wouldn't mind either.

 

This is kind of a rough draft board but in this order

 

Top Targets at #12

A. Bradley, J. Baez, F. Lindor, Guierrieri

 

Top targets at #15

(Same as above first, whoever is left) Gray, Norris, Springer, Mahtook, Cron, Barnes, Anderson, Fisher (one of my favorite prospects), Michaels, Fernandez

[paul253]

I am realistically hoping for Lindor at 12 and Guerrieri at 15. If that doesn't work out, Baez at 12 and Norris at 15. I'd really love for Archie Bradley at 12 but I don't think he'll be around. My absolute ideal draft would be Archie Bradley at 12, Taylor Guerrieri at 15 and a bat like Jason Esposito, Larry Greene, Aaron Westlake or Brett Austin in round 2.

[YoungGeezy]

I think it is going to be pretty tough for the Brewers to blow this, there are just so many good options. Alex Meyer is the deal breaker who will give the Brewers a giant F for the draft. But that is 100% IMO and my confidence that Alex Meyer is make Arnett look like a 10x Cy Young winner or Evan Fredrickson part 2. Even if we got Lindor, A. Bradley or anyone else, the Meyer pick will just sour the whole draft. Mr. positive I know but lol I really do not want Meyer.

[And That]

My handicapping of the 12th pick at Disciples of Uecker is here: link.

 

Same thing with the 15th pick will be out later today.

[greeg35]

After reading all of this I'm going to be hoping for Baez and Lindor in the first round.

[brewmann04]

Draft is schedulded to start at 7 PM EST and 5 Mins between picks so we should know the Brewers top 2 pick by 8:15 eastern time.

Can't wait looking foward to this draft to see who the Crew add to their system.

[ListachRides]

Klaw's final mock is up. Has Baez going 9 to the Cubs, Lindor to the Astros at 11 and gives us Jungmann at 12 and Gray at 15. He seems to be guessing at the Baez-Cubs connection. On the other hand, both him and Piliere seem convinced the Padres are taking Spangenburg at 10 which should may increase the likelihood of a player like Jed Bradley or Matt Barnes being available for the Brewers to consider.

Toby, loved your draft handicap. One question: why do you have the odds so low on Jungmann?

[And That]

I think they'll go more "upside" with the 12th pick. If Baez and Lindor are both gone, that's where Guerrieri and Springer come into play.

 

If Gray and Jungmann are both there and they force themselves to take one, I've heard they like Gray more.

[ListachRides]

Thanks for the reply. Looking forward to the handicap for the 15th pick.

[brewmann04]

If the two batters are gone hope they go with the top two Pitchers.

[patrickgpe]

i agree Toby, the 15th pick they need to go with a safe sign since the organization cannot loose a first round pick. That doesn't mean i want them to take a Kyle Peterson type player, but you should be able to get a player that is looking to sign. After reading up on the draft over the weekend and going through this entire thread, I'm hoping for one of the 2 shortstops at 12. I heard good things about Gray but I know the brewers tend to shy away from shorter starting pitchers in the draft. That leads me to think Tyler Anderson, Matt Barnes, or Taylor Guierrieri at 15.

[And That]

I doubt the Brewers risk trying to sign Guerrieri at 15, and I'm not sure where they are on his character issues either.

[jmeks23]

Still baffles me that Selig and the MLB haven't put in a salary cap for rookies yet. On the Law draft he mentions Hultzen could be falling due to a big contract demand. Why are these kids so stupid? You had a chance to be a top 3 pick now you might fall out of the top 5 just because you want more money when you haven't even thrown a professional pitch yet. Just absurd IMO.

 

 

As far as the draft, I still think Lindor and Guerrieri would be a tremendous draft (first round) for the Brewers. However, I'm fine with Baez, Barnes, Archie Bradley (though he might go top 5 now), Gray, and Norris. Some others I'm on the fence about. And I agree with the general sentiment here that Meyer is a total bust waiting to happen. Who knows though.

 

I'm just really hoping the Brewers aren't sticking with their 'we can only draft big tall pitchers' theory. Personally I hate that theory. There's far more average height superstar pitchers then big tall ones. Plus they can get hurt just as easily (ie Josh Johnson). They should just take a look at their current rotation and realize you don't have to be 6'5+ to be a good pitcher. Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum are all average height.

[brewmann04]

I agree it the same in the NFL large money before they even play a down,but don't think the Players union wants to go for a rookie cap.

ps what do you guys feel about Springer @15.

[patrickgpe]

i don't think springer will be around. I think the team needs to come out of the draft tonight with a shortstop and starting pitcher anyway.

[crewcrazy]

To be fair, bonus demands are going to be insane this year because it's likely the last year players will be able to do so with the new CBA coming up. Might as well squeeze all the juice out of the orange. It goes both ways, though -- many teams are going to be willing to spend more, too, because it's likely the last year to do so.

[TooLiveBrew]

At this point, I've heard so much love for Baez that I'll be disappointed if he isn't there at #12

 

Baez has a

strong, square-shouldered build, but is a loose, agile athlete with

plenty of quick-twitch ability. He has outstanding bat speed from the

right side with an extended, aggressive swing with plenty of lift that

enables him to drive balls up the alleys and over the fence to any part

of the field.