2011 General Draft Discussion

[paul253]

After looking over the latest power 50, I'm kind of changing my feeling towards loading up on higher ceiling HS kids. Archie Bradley or Gurrieri would be a good pick, as would Baez. I'd love to somehow come away with Lindor and Bradley but that may be wishful thinking. I'd settle for Gurrieri and either Lindor or Baez. I just don't want the Brewers to baby these kids like they seem to have been doing.

[Mass Haas]

WSSP AUDIO: Jim Callis from Baseball America joins Sparky

[ListachRides]

Piliere has an updated mock this morning. Baez and Guerrieri.

[Nader Raider Tim]

I have to admit I am starting to fall in love with the idea of a Javier Baez and Fransisco Lindor haul for the Brewers. Both players seem to have the excitingly high ceilings that the Brewers need, plus both are Bats so hopefully the Brewers can continue their trend of having a higher probability of developing offense. Unlike normal Brewers moves though it seems like both players could have ++ potential with their gloves, which is somewhat of a rarity in the Brewers system. The more I think of it the more I like the idea of drafting the duo (if available, blah blah blah) and pairing them together and just trying to develop them together. A Brewers infield of Braun, Weeks, Lindor and Baez is something I could dream about for a few years.

 

 

 

As a tangent, Washington seems to be looking like it will pull down a pretty dang sexy player again this year in Bubba Starling. A three year haul of Strasburg, Harper and Starling looking pretty Franchise changing.

[justwinbb]

Just give me 2 guys that go immediately to the top 5 of the power 50 and I'll be happy.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[paul253]

Just give me 2 guys that go immediately to the top 5 of the power 50 and I'll be happy.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Unfortunately (or fortunately, I guess depending on how you look at it) I have to imagine that's pretty much a given. I can't imagine any pitcher they take would be lower on the list than Rivas, who currently sits at four.

 

I have to admit I am starting to fall in love with the idea of a Javier Baez and Fransisco Lindor haul for the Brewers.

 

I was thinking about that before two, and as much as I think they need I pitcher I would not be disappointed by that at all. A shortstop and a third basemen, both HS, and they could probably come up together. Similarly, if they go pitcher-pitcher, I'd love to see Norris and Guerrieri.

 

I was thinking about who might be around for the second round pick. The Brewers pick #70 I believe. Just looking at the BA top 200 prospects, guys that rank in the area of #70 include Larry Greene, Jason Esposito, and a couple of prep shortstops in Tyler Greene and Connor Barron. I'd love Esposito or Greene in the second round if they fall.

[ListachRides]

I'd expect the two first rounders to be #1 and 2 on the power 50 as soon as they sign, and the second round pick should be close behind them.

 

Colby previously provided a good list of potential second round targets. Assuming the Brewers don't take an outfielder like Mahtook or Springer in round 1 but instead stick to the infielders and pitchers we've been discussing, I like some of the high school outfielders that could be available with their second round pick. My personal favorite would be Carl Thomore. There's also Greene, who you mentioned and who the Brewers have reportedly scouted heavily. If they're willing to spend Derek Fisher and Charlie Tilson might still be there as well.

[narwhalattack]

I'm praying for A. Bradley for 12th and Lindor, Baez, or Gray for 15th.

[Nader Raider Tim]

While I undoubtably love the idea of adding high end pitching talent I can't help but go back to the fact that the Brewers seem to have better luck (skill) at evaluating and developing bats. I am no expert here just a relatively casual fan who pays quite a bit of attention to the minor league side of things. When was the last Brewers 1st or 2nd round pick that was a bat that hasn't panned out? With pitchers the track record is much more sketchy. So I guess all I am saying is if the Brewers draft offense in round 1 I as a casual observer will feel more comfortable with it. Round 1 go bats. Round 2-3 go best available (ex Stetson Allie from last year) and rounds 4-10 stockpile your pitching depth and try and hit on the Thornburgs of the world.

[battlekow]

Actually, the last second-round pick that panned out was Gallardo. Since then: Brewer, Adams, Dykstra, Lintz, Garfield, Walla, and Nelson. Obviously some could still figure it out, but the results haven't exactly been promising.

[And That]

Dykstra indirectly panned out, at least.

[YoungGeezy]

I am praying we go HS, thats all. Baez, Bradley, Guierrieri, Norris, Lindor, Swihart being the main targets, wouldnt mind Fernandez at 15. While I really like to go HS i would have no issue with Springer, Gray, Jed Bradley, Barnes, Mahtook, and maybe Anderson.

 

A guy like Jungermann wouldn't be so bad but my issue with him is he is just like our whole system. has a big body, can get groundballs, be effective but won't K many guys. Which we can live with, we are right now, I just prefer high ceiling over floor.

 

Really as long as Alex Meyer (Arnett 2.0) is not a Brewer I am a happy man

[Never Outhustled]

While I really like to go HS i would have no issue with Springer, Gray, Jed Bradley, Barnes, Mahtook, and maybe Anderson.

 

A guy like Jungermann wouldn't be so bad but my issue with him is he is just like our whole system. has a big body, can get groundballs, be effective but won't K many guys. Which we can live with, we are right now, I just prefer high ceiling over floor

Why are you OK with the strikeout ability Jed Bradley and Sonny Gray but not Jungman? They all have the same K rate. The only difference is Jungman has been more effective than Gray and significantly more effective than Bradley. What does Bradley have that gives him any kind of ceiling?

[trwi7]

I think they're talking about his declining strikeout rate. It was near 10 per 9 innings his first two years and down to 8.5 this year. It doesn't really concern me however so I'd be fine with Jungmann.

[Never Outhustled]

While I undoubtably love the idea of adding high end pitching talent I can't help but go back to the fact that the Brewers seem to have better luck (skill) at evaluating and developing bats. I am no expert here just a relatively casual fan who pays quite a bit of attention to the minor league side of things. When was the last Brewers 1st or 2nd round pick that was a bat that hasn't panned out? With pitchers the track record is much more sketchy. So I guess all I am saying is if the Brewers draft offense in round 1 I as a casual observer will feel more comfortable with it. Round 1 go bats. Round 2-3 go best available (ex Stetson Allie from last year) and rounds 4-10 stockpile your pitching depth and try and hit on the Thornburgs of the world.

I completely agree. I've argued for years that The Brewers would be better off picking power bats and then later on trade for pitching. The opposition argued this couldn't be done, but now I have proof that it can be. The Brewers now have a great staff with a few offseason trades.

 

Now imagine where we'd be if the Brewers had drafted 4 more position players instead of the 4 1st round pitchers they've drafted (Jones, Rogers, Jeffress, Arnett. Jeffress was a trade chip, but I doubt a major piece. I'm not including the Covey pick since he didn't sign and we still have the pick). Stick to what we excell at, let other teams gamble on developing pitching. There will always be a team in need of a power hitter that will give up pitching.

 

Make it Baez and Cron for me.

 

[RyDogg66]

What are the chances that the Brewers select someone we havent discussed in the past 10 or so pages with their top two selections?

[LouisEly]

After looking over the latest power 50, I'm kind of changing my feeling towards loading up on higher ceiling HS kids.

 

I am praying we go HS, thats all.

 

Past Brewers 1st/2nd round HS picks: JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Prince Fielder, Josh Murray, Mark Rogers, Yo Gallardo, Jeremy Jeffress, Brent Brewer

 

Past Brewers 1st/2nd round College picks: Ben Sheets, Kade Johnson, Rickie Weeks, TGJ, Ryan Braun Matt LaPorta

 

Maybe it is the recency effect of the success of Lawrie & Odorizzi and the failure of Fredericksen, Cody Adams, and Arnett (so far), but history is littered with plenty of Brewers high school picks who failed. (Let's also not forget about Lintz and Walla, other HS picks not tracking to even get to AA, and Heckathorn and Kentrail Davis, college players who have had some success.) Picking HS is no guarantee of success and neither is college. Yes they hit home runs with Fielder and Gallardo, but they also hit home runs with Sheets, Weeks, and Braun. And other high college draftees include Thornburg, Schafer, Lucroy, Cole Gillespie, and Gamel (JC).

[YoungGeezy]

It doesn't concern me, I just feel he is the same type of pitcher we have gone for. I noted that I would have no issue if we drafted him it is that I just feel he will be that typical big horse college righty who is a good prospect gets ton of groundballs but won't be an over powering strike out pitcher. I think he is could be a #2 or #3. I'd prefer something different from the norm however. Bradley has one MAJOR plus that over shadows the strikeout rate for me and that is he is a lefty. Our system to be nice, has crap for lefty prospects. Merklinger is closer to 25, still in AA and has not been great. Howell is 23 and still is managing to have an awful FIP over 6 in the MWL against younger and should be inferior players. Oh and Meadows and Nieves are the others.

 

As for ceilings, while Jungmann as been the same dominate power arm workhorse for one of the top programs in the country. He was gatorade player of the year in Texas and is the similar to the prospect people have thought he would be. Bradley has only gotten better every year and continued to grow. He is a kid who was not drafted out of high school because while he was a crafty lefty who could hit spots he only throw 86 on the gun. Now he hits 94, sits around 92 but still has the abilty to throw all three pitches in any count of a strike. To me there has been a lot more progression in his game over the past 3-4 years than Jungmann explaining the higher-floor for Jungmann and higher ceiling for Bradley. Just because Bradley doesn't light up the gun doesn't mean he doesn't have a high ceiling. Gallardo is a great example of how a 92 fastball is good enough when you can throw all you off-speed pitches for strikes. It would be nice if Bradley could pick up one more pitch (only fb, change, slider) but I think we will continue to improve what hes has now and is a possible #1-#2 pitcher in the future. Doubt Brewers have a shot at him but I'd love the pick.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, you had me thinking we wouldn't see you on here for weeks at a time. It's like you never got your awesome new job.

 

Thanks guys. I said in my announcement of my new gig that I was a Brewers fan first and foremost, and that will never change. Brewerfan.net is a fist full of awesome, and while I won't contribute on a regular basis to the site's features, I never intended to go away entirely.

 

That said, I need to find a way (and some time) to follow the Brewers better than I have that last month+. Maybe my move away from Milwaukee had a reverse affect on the teams winning (losing) ways. I'm coming back for next Friday's game, so if they lose, my bad http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

Since last night I'm hearing the top 6 is pretty well set (but not concrete, of course). The D-Backs at #7 could really set off a chain of reaction, particularly for the Brewers who covet Javier Baez.

 

1. Cole

2. Rendon

3. Hultzen

4. Bundy

5. Bauer

6. Starling

[Oldcity]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I have a friend who works as an advance scout for Vanderbilt. I asked him about Sonny Gray. He said he likes him, but he wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a reliever because he really only has two pitches. He likes him in the closer's role in the future--said he's really competitive and has that "mentality," whatever that is.

 

What I found more interesting were his comments on another Vanderbilt pitcher, Grayson Garvin. He's a 6'6" lefty, which gets your attention right away. Here's what my buddy had to say: "I think he would fly through the Brewers' system. Coach Corbin says he is better than Mike Minor at this point in their careers." He is projected to go Supplemental/2nd round, but he's hearing the Yankees like him with their first pick.

 

I'd be pretty excited if the Brewers got Garvin in the second round.

[YoungGeezy]

After looking over the latest power 50, I'm kind of changing my feeling towards loading up on higher ceiling HS kids.

 

I am praying we go HS, thats all.

 

Past Brewers 1st/2nd round HS picks: JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Prince Fielder, Josh Murray, Mark Rogers, Yo Gallardo, Jeremy Jeffress, Brent Brewer

 

Past Brewers 1st/2nd round College picks: Ben Sheets, Kade Johnson, Rickie Weeks, TGJ, Ryan Braun Matt LaPorta

In fairness they had have had great hits on Neugebauer and Jones as prospects but bad luck kills. Both could have been frontline starters if it weren't for the injuries (which still counts as busting i know). Jones held his own in AA as a young 20 year old and career was looking so promising then the injuries came.

 

Gold, Murray, and Brewer were pretty bad misses, Krynzel was an exciting prospect to follow but was a dud at the end. Book is still open on Rogers as he walks the line on Neugy/Jones and being a success. Jeffress minus drugs has been good and I think we will have a very nice pro career, Lawrie I think will be a very good pro.

[TheCrew07]

I completely agree. I've argued for years that The Brewers would be better off picking power bats and then later on trade for pitching. The opposition argued this couldn't be done, but now I have proof that it can be. The Brewers now have a great staff with a few offseason trades.

 

Now imagine where we'd be if the Brewers had drafted 4 more position players instead of the 4 1st round pitchers they've drafted (Jones, Rogers, Jeffress, Arnett. Jeffress was a trade chip, but I doubt a major piece. I'm not including the Covey pick since he didn't sign and we still have the pick). Stick to what we excell at, let other teams gamble on developing pitching. There will always be a team in need of a power hitter that will give up pitching.

I thought the idea was to spend a hitting prospect or 2 to get near MLB ready pitching talent, not spend 3-4 prospects at a time getting temporary solutions to the organizational pitching problem. There simply aren't enough prospects in a system to make the Sabathia/Greinke deals on a consistent basis. I'm certainly down with trading prospects for prospects and always have been, I am not down with continually trading multiple prospects for temporary solutions, the ship never gets righted that way.

 

Out of curiosity, what did the Marcum/Greinke trades prove that the Sabathia trade did not? Or the Halladay trade? Or the Lee trade? Or any trade of a frontline starter for multiple prospects? The concept is hardly new?

 

I really liked the idea of trading bats for pitching when I thought both you and the organization were talking about prospect swaps, the reality of trading 8 prospects for a little under 5 years of service hasn't sat so well with me.

[Oldcity]

TheCrew07 wrote:

I really liked the idea of trading bats for pitching when I thought both you and the organization were talking about prospect swaps, the reality of trading 8 prospects for a little under 5 years of service hasn't sat so well with me.

How often do you see prospect swaps? Off the top of my head, I can't think of any deal that was just prospect(s) for prospect(s).

[Never Outhustled]

I really liked the idea of trading bats for pitching when I thought both you and the organization were talking about prospect swaps, the reality of trading 8 prospects for a little under 5 years of service hasn't sat so well with me.

 

If we would have had another power hitter in the system, maybe we could have been the team to get Garza from Minnesota. If we had more position players, maybe we deal Fielder for young pitching. Not every deal will be like the last 2.

[LouisEly]

Here's to hoping that in addition to three great picks in the first two rounds that the Brewers find the next Thornburg/Lucroy/Grady Sizemore in the 3rd round, the next Hellickson/Gamel in the 4th, the next Brooks Hall/Jake Arrieta in the 5th, the next Andrew Bailey in the 6th (or 16th), the next Michael Brantley in the 7th, the next Corey Hart/Matt Latos in the 11th, the next John Jaha in the 14th, and the next Braddock in the 18th round.