2011 General Draft Discussion

[battlekow]

I said in the other thread I was surprised the Brewers hadn't been connected to Michael, but nevertheless, that's the first I've heard of them being interested in him.

[heresrobin]

For what it's worth, it was not a good day for potential Brewer targets Matt Barnes and George Springer today in their Regional game against Coastal Carolina. The Huskies got blasted 13-1.

Matt Barnes took the loss giving up 7 ER in 4 1/3 IP with 6 Ks, 3 BBs, and 9 Hits.

George Springer was 0-4 with 2 Ks.

http://www.ncaa.com/game/baseball/d1/2011/06/03/coastal-caro-connecticut

[colbyjack]

Similar to Piliere's pick of Archie Bradley, Goldstein seems to be guessing with Springer and Michael in that mock. Kudos to Toby for his report on Baez, and as good as Guerrieri has been this spring, he has enough issues to stay away from. Keep in mind that no one had the Brewers associated with Dylan Covey at this time last year. I think Spangenberg and Cron are more likely at #15 than some of the other names being brought up.

[patrickgpe]

link

 

i love sonny gray but understand he will probably be gone at 12. if the draft does like mymlbdraft.com projects it, i will be extremely happy. i still like barnes at 12 and baez at 15.

[YoungGeezy]

Colby, like you mentioned about no one seeing Covey last year, how do you feel about Dillion Howard? I have thrown his name out a few times but no one has really gave much feed back towards him. I think Howard could be a bit of a sleeper that people have been very quit on. Hear alot about all the college arms then the preps like Bundy, Norris, Bradley, Guierrieri but seems like everyone forgets about Howard and even Fernandez (I think you are the only person I have seen through his nmae out there) who in a normal draft would garner much more talk.

[paul253]

I just can't shake this feeling that I am going to come away disappointed by this draft. If we walk away with two of A. Bradley, J. Bradley, Gray, Jungmann, Barnes, Gurrieri, Norris, Lindor, Baez, or Swihart I will be ok with the draft. Considering that's ten names and guys like Cole, Bauer, Hultzen, Rendon, Bundy, and Starling are sure to be gone, there will certainly be the chance for Milwaukee to take two of those. Whether or not they actually will is what's bothering me.

[Never Outhustled]

Some statistical analysis of Jungmann, Mahtook, Michaels and others from one of the guys at College Splits http://insider.espn.go.co...er/news/story?id=6615121 (ESPN Insider only).

 

Pretty depressing take on Jungmann and Mahtook if they're two of our top targets as gets so frequently mentioned. Suggests Mahtook might have some serious platoon issues and expresses concern about Jungmann's strikeout rate. Of the two, I'd say Mahtook worries me more.

 

Good stuff here. I thought there look at Michael was even more damning. I didn't like him even before this. He simply isn't a good hitter. I agree with what you said in another post, that he's the least exciting pick the Brewers could make. I also agree with you and YoungGeezy that Mahtook doesn't interest me. If we're taking a defensive position limited player, we should take the best hitter, which is Cron.

 

I have to take issue with their assessment of Jungman. They project as a 4/5 starter because of his K rate, yet they don't mention Gerrit Cole's K rate at all in his assessment. Those 2, along with Matt Barnes and Sonny Gray, all have the same K rate. Plus, Jungman proved he could K at a higher rate last year. Now he's just so dominant he's getting batters out too quickly to get huge K totals. Jungman's K rate is quite good for a pitcher with an extreme groundball rate.

 

 

 

[Never Outhustled]

Very interesting to hear of the Brewers interest in Baez. He certainly has awesome tools. He also comes with some concerns. There is some family issues. He has an explosive personality. That doesn't work for many players, though it works fine for Fielder. Baez has awesome HS numbers, and is great in batting practice, but can anyone answer how good he was on the showcase circuit against top pitching?

 

Is he as raw as the guy Philly took in round 1 in 2008, Anthony Hewitt? The Brewers were connected to him that year. He too was a SS with great bat speed. Now he's an OF, and is mediocre in A ball. Luckily Lawrie fell to the Brewers, or we might be stuck with Hewitt.

 

If the Brewers draft Baez, should they let him play off SS, or should they move him right to 3B? I say 3B right away, or we'll have another bad defender. IMO, 3B requires more years of experience than other other position besides catcher. Baez could be a great defensive 3B if he starts there in rookie ball, but he'll have a tough transformation if it happens in AA.

 

If the Brewers pick the huge ceiling/low floor Baez, should they counterbalance that with a higher floor player like Jungman ( if somehow available) or Cron?

[narwhalattack]

Very interesting to hear of the Brewers interest in Baez. He certainly has awesome tools. He also comes with some concerns. There is some family issues. He has an explosive personality. That doesn't work for many players, though it works fine for Fielder. Baez has awesome HS numbers, and is great in batting practice, but can anyone answer how good he was on the showcase circuit against top pitching?

 

Is he as raw as the guy Philly took in round 1 in 2008, Anthony Hewitt? The Brewers were connected to him that year. He too was a SS with great bat speed. Now he's an OF, and is mediocre in A ball. Luckily Lawrie fell to the Brewers, or we might be stuck with Hewitt.

 

If the Brewers draft Baez, should they let him play off SS, or should they move him right to 3B? I say 3B right away, or we'll have another bad defender. IMO, 3B requires more years of experience than other other position besides catcher. Baez could be a great defensive 3B if he starts there in rookie ball, but he'll have a tough transformation if it happens in AA.

 

If the Brewers pick the huge ceiling/low floor Baez, should they counterbalance that with a higher floor player like Jungman ( if somehow available) or Cron?

The Brewers should draft high ceiling players for both the picks. They should refraining from "counterbalancing" with higher floor players such as Jungmann. Their farm system is in such a bad shape right now, that drafting high-floor players with limited upside would be just counterproductive (I'm assuming that you're talking about high-floor, limited ceiling guys?). However, if you're talking about high-floor, high-ceiling guys, then maybe they should, but I'm gonna cringe a little if they do.

[Never Outhustled]

If the Brewers pick the huge ceiling/low floor Baez, should they counterbalance that with a higher floor player like Jungman ( if somehow available) or Cron?

The Brewers should draft high ceiling players for both the picks. They should refraining from "counterbalancing" with higher floor players such as Jungmann. Their farm system is in such a bad shape right now, that drafting high-floor players with limited upside would be just counterproductive (I'm assuming that you're talking about high-floor, limited ceiling guys?). However, if you're talking about high-floor, high-ceiling guys, then maybe they should, but I'm gonna cringe a little if they do.

 

So your saying they should gamble more because their system is poor? I think gambling is a luxory for the rich. And no, I'm not saying low ceiling guys, I've argued repeatedly that Cron and Jungman have high ceilings, though not as high as possibly Baez.

[And That]

Seems the Pirates will take UCLA RHP Gerritt Cole first overall, which means the Mariners will almost assuredly take Rice 3B Michael Rendon.

 

If the Pirates had gone with Rendon at #1, there's a chance the Mariners would have passed on all the pitchers and gone with Lindor. Now it's likely that either Lindor or Baez will fall to the Brewers at #12.

[Kelbysdaddy]

are there any signabilty issues with Daniel Norris? that kid seems like a beast from what i've seen of him.

[ListachRides]

Piliere just tweeted the following: "Sources telling me the Astros are trying to cut a pre-draft deal with Stanford lefty, Chris Reed at #11"

 

If that happens, that's one less team the Brewers have to worry about taking Lindor, Bradley, Jungmann, Barnes, Guerrieri or whomever.

[tstads20]

Yeah, but I'm starting to get a little nervous we're gonna be doing an overdraft at #15 now, or so the rumor goes. Kevin Goldstein having them take Levi Michael is very groan inducing, so I hope that Toby's report on Baez is at least true in that respect. Should be signable, even if he's not considered a "very" safe pick.

 

Hopefully whoever we take at #12 is worth our while regardless. I still just don't see how the Brewers pass up on a pitcher with one of these picks, and barring Lindor being there at 12, it almost has to be a pitcher based on principle alone.

[Kelbysdaddy]

if the brewers decide on 1 pitcher and 1 position player, what are the chances they take c.j. cron. i know short is a big need but so is 1b. i just hope they dont take an of in the first round. he looks like he can take a walk(31bb/21k) and has a bunch of power. although he could become another brad nelson.

[colbyjack]

Colby, like you mentioned about no one seeing Covey last year, how do you feel about Dillion Howard?

 

I had one person tell me they fully expect Howard to go to college (Arkansas). He's a strong kid, not overly tall, but he may have maxed out. He's still good even if he has maxed out, as he has been throwing in the low-to-mid-90s with a good slider since his sophomore year in high school. He also is advised by Boras, which of course complicates matters.

 

As for Baez, he has hit well on the showcase circuit, and hits good pitching. His bat is clearly his best tool, and is a similar prospect to both Brett Lawrie and even Ryan Braun at a similar stage in his career. I don't think he sticks at shortstop, but I have heard he has been making some acrobatic plays this spring. He's far from the type of prospect Anthony Hewitt is/was, but may eventually settle in at third or even an outfield corner.

 

Chris Reed is a name that has been on the rise, with a few rumors of teams in the 20-30 range considering him with their pick. The Astros at #11 is an interesting fit, and I agree it's one less team to contend with should someone like Lindor get past the top 7-8 picks.

 

I haven't heard any signability issues with Daniel Norris. He has top of the rotation stuff, but needs consistency.

[Never Outhustled]

As for Baez, he has hit well on the showcase circuit, and hits good pitching. His bat is clearly his best tool, and is a similar prospect to both Brett Lawrie and even Ryan Braun at a similar stage in his career. I don't think he sticks at shortstop, but I have heard he has been making some acrobatic plays this spring. He's far from the type of prospect Anthony Hewitt is/was, but may eventually settle in at third or even an outfield corner.

 

Thanks. That really puts me at ease. As someone who begged for both Braun and Lawrie, I'm surprised I hadn't shown more interest in Baez before. So Patrick, if you were pulling the trigger for the Brewers at 12, would Baez be your guy, and would you recommend him to the staff as a SS or 3B?

[tstads20]

Is it really the end of the world if they draft Baez and he becomes a 3B? Feels like there isn't much depth in the system at any position on the left side of the infield...kind of a win-win, especially if he's a bat first who could handle 3rd better.

[colbyjack]

If I were pulling the trigger I'd put Baez at 3B from day one, because I don't believe he stays at SS long-term and would want him to get as many reps at 3B so he's as close to MLB ready in all phases of his game when he gets there.

 

I like Baez, but in some of the projections I'm seeing there's a chance guys like Matt Barnes, Sonny Gray and Jed Bradley could fall to the Brewers pick. Tyler Anderson is another guy I like that I would consider, and Trevor Story is a guy I may take at #15. While the extra first-rounder is nice this year, it certainly would be fun to have a comp pick or two (or more) this year.

[narwhalattack]

According to the latest mock draft on Perfect Game, the Brewers are projected to draft Sonny Gray 12th and George Springer 15th. I like the Sheets comparison for Gray, and I love the idea of the Brewers drafting Springer 15th

[sfl2hnq17]

Colby, though both of these guys haven't really been connected with the Brewers at 15, who would you rather take Daniel Norris or Tyler Anderson? (May be a dumb question but I like what I've read about both and the Brewers obviously have a lack of any left-handed pitching prospects)

[colbyjack]

Hard not to go with Norris, who as I noted above has top of the rotation stuff, but I'm a big Anderson believer. He's the type of guy that has good, not great stuff, but that stuff can play bigger the way he pitches. And that could happen at the big-league level a lot sooner than it likely will for Norris.

 

Also, I noted above that Norris isn't expected to be a signability risk. It circulated today that he's looking for $3.9 million, or what Tyler Matzek got a few years ago. So, there is a signability risk, as that's top 3-5 overall type of cash. I still don't think he ends up at college.

[TheCrew07]

Colby, thanks for continuing to come here and offer opinions, it's truly appreciated.

[brewmann04]

I am still hoping for a front line starter and either Lindor Baez or Springer or Croon if they go hitter.I still not will be upset with two top pitchers with picks 12and 15.

[TooLiveBrew]

Colby, thanks for continuing to come here and offer opinions, it's truly appreciated.

Yeah, you had me thinking we wouldn't see you on here for weeks at a time. It's like you never got your awesome new job http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif