2011 General Draft Discussion

[tstads20]

I really don't mind a college bat, but not sure I'd wanna see them take any of them at 12 unless it's Lindor.

 

I wonder how much they're planning on spending, hopefully they're willing to open their wallets a little bit to sign some better talent, Bradley looks like a nice player.

[ListachRides]

In today's chats Piliere described Jungmann as nearer to a front of the rotation guy than back of the rotation guy, and both he and Law indicated that Jungmann could start in AA, though I doubt the Brewers would do that. Piliere also seems convinced the Mets will take Jungmann if he's there at 13, so if the Brewers want him, they might have to take him at 12.

 

Archie Bradley is easily the most exciting new name connected to the Brewers. I didn't think the Brewers would seriously pursue a guy with that price tag and I hope to be proven wrong.

[BoKnowsBall]

From reading scouting reports am I correct in picturing Ben Sheets as a comp for Bradley?

[YoungGeezy]

With the Brewers current state of their system, the worse one in all of baseball, they can't afford to be scared or shy away from a price tag. If the person with the tag is the best available on their board, pull the trigger. I think I can get the Sheets comp. 93-96 fastball, great 12-6 curveball and a good change up.

[paul253]

I'd be really excited to see them take Archie Bradley and not excited at all to see them take Mahtook. A Bradley/Norris, Bradley/Gray, Bradley/Barnes combo would really make me happy. Unless Lindor or Baez is available, I'd rather they just take their top two pitchers in round 1 and then grab someone like Greene, Esposito or as prep SS with their second round pick.

[YoungGeezy]

Would love a Bradley/Norris combo....Brewers have nothing really for lefties in the system and lack strike out pitchers, Norris gives you a south paw and both can rake up some k's. I really want a nice pitcher like Odorizzi who doesn't walk many and can rack up some k's. Sick of having a whole system of contact/ground ball pitchers who we may go in shock if they get 6-7 k's in an outing. Thornburg, Peralta (at times), Rogers (if he is'nt walking 6-7) Scarpetta (when his lower body is right) and Ross (as of right now against inferior comp.) are about the only guys that you can usually count on for raking up a few k's. Love Greinke but as a big minor league guy, I REALLY miss Odorizzi....we need a replacement bad!

[heresrobin]

Just a guess, but I would think the comparison between Bradley and Sheets is because they both rely on 2 pitches: fastballs and a similar 12-6 curveball. And then perhaps that neither one really uses a change up - but maybe with Bradley it's because he hasn't developed it yet or had to use it.

 

YoungGeezy, I don't remember Sheets having a good change-up. In fact, I hardly remember him ever using it. But maybe I just don't have a good memory...

 

As far as body type, I don't see a comparison at all. Bradley is extremely well put together. If you had to build a stud right-hander pitcher or a stud QB or a stud WR from scratch, he's sort of what that would look like. Sheets has to be at least 3 inches shorter and not nearly the athlete Bradley looks to be.

 

I don't particularly see any kind of delivery comparison either.

[DHonks]

YoungGeezy, just a couple of thoughts to your posts. The Brewers have every reason to be afraid of pricetag. The correlation between bonus and performance doesn't always work out. For every Stephen Drew there's been a bunch of Matt Harrington, Matt Bush, etc types. Jeff Clement was supposed to be a stud but hasn't worked out. Hochevar was a stud that has been mediocre at best. The Brewers need to get the highest ceiling and the best possible player, but they also need to consider the cost. They will not go cheap. But they had better be wise.

[colbyjack]

Anyone a little suspicious of Guerrieri's sudden helium? He didn't get noticed that much until either January or February, and then suddenly shot up through draft boards. Is he really gonna sustain his stuff and velocity? Eric Arnett also had a sudden helium and saw a jump in velocity, and when he got to the minors, he just crashed and burned. Not saying that Guerrieri = Arnett, but I'm a little suspicious about the sudden helium.

 

Guerrieri didn't come out of nowhere though, as he was well known to scouts particularly when he was throwing in the 93-95 range last July. He's a guy that was rated as a top 20-30 prep prospect, putting him in the 50-60 overall range prior to the spring. That's still sandwich to 2nd round range, as I had him 65th in my top 100 rankings as of January 9th:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/...pects-top100-1-9-11.html

 

Just a guess, but I would think the comparison between Bradley and Sheets is because they both rely on 2 pitches: fastballs and a similar 12-6 curveball. And then perhaps that neither one really uses a change up - but maybe with Bradley it's because he hasn't developed it yet or had to use it.

 

You nailed it heresrobin. Ben Sheets and Archie Bradley are nowhere near the same other than the fact they throw FB/CB. Bradley's is a knuckle curve in which he curls in his forefinger to snap off the pitch the way he does. Bradley is much bigger and more physical than Sheets.

 

I really respect Piliere's work, but I didn't get the impression that he said the Brewers were actually considering Bradley like he did with a few of the other players. It sounded more like a guess. I would be pleasantly surprised if Bradley were the pick, although remind myself that at least with whatever they sign him for they can spread it out over five years since Bradley is a 2-sport guy.

 

And DHonks brings up a good point. There's a difference between being cheap and spending slot value. You could have argued that the Brewers went cheap when they took Braun over Cameron Maybin back in 2005 depending on your view of how they approach and spend on the draft.

 

Also, I hope everyone at least checks out Perfect Game come draft day. We're rolling out a new draft tracker so to speak that is going to be side-by-side with a CoverItLive chat window that we're calling Draft LIVE! You'll be able to see the picks and read commentary from myself and other PG experts as they occur. The links to the players will take readers to their PG profiles, and we also made all of our 2011 draft coverage free of charge, including Allan Simpson's one-of-a-kind state-by-state follow lists.

[DHonks]

colby, in the past I always asked who compares to Sheets (our biggest draft success on the mound in recent history). However, let's turn the page. All of these guys seem to have 2/3 pitches. Which players (HS/College) compare most to Yo?

 

Some things to consider (doesn't need to fit all criteria, but these are just some guidelines for your answer(s)):

-Yo throws 4 pitches (doesn't throw the changeup much now, but as a rookie he had a pretty good one).

-He doesn't need to throw 96, but instead regularly 91-92 and touching 94 is sufficient

-perhaps has some deception. Yo records a huge amount of K's looking on fastballs, and I remember that even in his MLB scouting bureau video as a prep he was catching guys looking as well.

-cool demeanor, but doesn't seem to ever mentally take a pitch or two off

[narwhalattack]

And Colby, who would you rather see the Brewers draft, Taylor Guerrieri or Archie Bradley?

[brewmann04]

If they had to go the safe route so to speak i like the Uconn players George Springer or Matt Barnes.I really think we need to go with the Highest celing player at 12.

The Brewers really need to to find a top flight pitcher with their 1st pick.

[YoungGeezy]

YoungGeezy, just a couple of thoughts to your posts. The Brewers have every reason to be afraid of pricetag. The correlation between bonus and performance doesn't always work out. For every Stephen Drew there's been a bunch of Matt Harrington, Matt Bush, etc types. Jeff Clement was supposed to be a stud but hasn't worked out. Hochevar was a stud that has been mediocre at best. The Brewers need to get the highest ceiling and the best possible player, but they also need to consider the cost. They will not go cheap. But they had better be wise.

My main poin to that is though is that is the guy you feel is the best play available and think he will be an all-star you cant say, oh well he is going to want to but money so I am going to pick this "safer, cheaper" guy who is not as good but affordable. Doing that is what helps land teams in the red area for there system. Sure some will hit, some will miss but you never know who those ones will be so you must go off what all your scouts, cross checkers, and scouting director say they feel is the highest ceiling, best player available. If if his tag is high, you still need to pick them UNLESS there is someone equal to or close to that same ceiling or potential. AKA Bradley vs Guierrieri, both are fairly close in ceiling however one isnt a star QB will will cost an arm and a leg. In that case you can go cheaper.

 

In the end it is all how the scouts rate the players and how equal the others are to them but I firmly believe if a Bubba Starling somehow drop to the Brewers at #12 because of price tag, I won't even have to think twice (to me Starling is the top prospect in the draft but that is 100% IMO) I am paying up and getting the BPA. Bradley is a little more tough to say if he is worth the much heftier price tag since there are guys around him who are pretty close in talent and cheaper, but I still think Bradley would be an outstanding pick.

[colbyjack]

Great question DHonks, and a nice wrinkle to your previous, annual inquiry (and you do know my answer to your old question for this year, the most apt one ever, right?).

 

The answer is Joe Ross. He's the younger brother of Tyson Ross, who pitches for the A's. Joe isn't as tall but has a better and more projectable/wiry frame than Tyson. He sits in the upper-80s to low-90s with the ability to touch higher than that (and a lot of room for added/consistent velocity) with a very good 3-pitch mix (slider/changeup). He repeats his delivery well and commands the zone well, particularly for his age. Definitely the type of guy that can get a lot of Ks looking (and swinging) simply by his pitching moxie. He likely goes somewhere between the Brewers pick at #15 and their 2nd rounder. I could definitely see him being the pitcher we're all scratching our heads wondering how he wasn't a premium pick a few years from now.

 

Keep in mind, I had Yo going 10th overall to the Rangers the Brewers took him in the 2nd round. I don't bring that up to toot my own horn, but to point out that his talents were plenty recognized when he was draft eligible.

 

And Colby, who would you rather see the Brewers draft, Taylor Guerrieri or Archie Bradley?

 

Bradley, 10 times out of 10 without thinking twice. Money may make that difficult but based strictly on talent, I really like Bradley and think he's a good bet to succeed.

[brewmann04]

I would be very Happy with Jim Callis 6/3 mock the Brewers would walk away with Lindor and Gray

[patrickgpe]

my ideal situation is barnes and gray.

[RickyWeeks4Prez]

Ideal situation would be Lindor and Guerrieri! Our future shortstop and top of the rotation starter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Welcome, RW4P http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brewmann04]

If they took the best Pitcher and Springer i would be ok with that too

[ListachRides]

New Klaw mock. Has the Brewers going with Jungmann and Baez. First time one of the major mocks has linked us with Baez. Suits me fine, I'm a big fan. He lists Springer, Gray and Guerrieri as other possibilities. Also mentions Mahtook, but has him going to the Cubs at 9. I've really soured on Mahtook lately and will be really happy if the Cubs save us from ourselves.

[And That]

Speaking of Baez, I wrote about him yesterday at Disciples of Uecker.

 

If he's there at 12 (and assuming Lindor is not), I bet they'll take him.

 

Edit: In other words, I think the odds that they get either Baez or Lindor are relatively high. Outside, extremely unlikely possibility that they get both.

[And That]

The new Baseball America "expert draft" is up (link for subscribers). Important to note that this mock draft isn't who they think teams will pick, it is who they would pick if they ran the teams.

 

They have the Brewers taking Guerrieri at 12 and Gray at 15. Lindor and Baez had already been taken by the 12th pick.

[ListachRides]

BA's new projection mock (who they think will be picked) is up. Here's a link to the free version without analysis. http://ht.ly/59RxU Have the Brewers taking Baez at 12 and Guerrieri at 15. Lindor goes 17.

 

Thanks for the write-up on Baez' workout Toby. That's great info and it appears the rest of the draft pundits are following your lead.

[YoungGeezy]

By any chance Toby do know anyone else the Brewers have brought in for workouts?

[ListachRides]

One more mock from Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus. Has us taking Springer and Levi Michael. Easily my least favorite recent projection.