2011 General Draft Discussion

[nate82]

As far drafting guys without a position, anyone drafted this summer is likely at least 2 years away from contributing. There will be plenty of holes to be filled by the time these guys arrive. The only players we have under contract more than 3 years are Braun and Lucroy, we'll potentially have openings at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, CF, and RF by the time these draftees would be ready.

Not to be nit picky or anything but Weeks has a vesting option also which could take him past the three years. Weeks vesting 4th year is almost guaranteed if he is healthy. For the most part I agree with you TheCrew but I like Cron as he will add something that you alluded to in your post. When drafted Cron will be the best hitting prospect the Brewers will have. If he is there at 15 I would take Cron depending on who else is available. I would select either Bradley or Jungmann at the 12th pick. The Brewers really should be drafting the player with the most tools either it be in college or a high school player. If the Brewers really wanted to take the best player out of the high school crop they could spend #1 type money on Bell which is what it would take to get him away from Texas.

Where the Brewers are picking I don't see a player that will be available where it would be a bad pick unless the Brewers take a signability player at the 12th or 15th pick. The upside of the high school picks could be just that of where the college player is at right now or lower it could also be higher but you never really know that. I just want the Brewers to select the most athletic player whoever it maybe and I don't really care if they are from college or high school. It really should just be best player available.

[brewmann04]

I still hope they Draft the Best two Pitchers out there unless a true Hitter who can move up the system quickly.

[DHonks]

TheCrew07, It's quite conceivable that Schafer and Komatsu could both be in the outfield together in a few years. We currently are a team built around power with iffy OBP. I'd rather we build around high OBP and mediocre SLG.

 

I, like many others, prefer high ceiling younger players (think HS, not college in most cases). I also would love to draft some SS/3b types. The key is that there's always flexibility. We can't draft solely based on need, but if two players are rated equally, we should take the need-based player.

 

Having said all of that, I'm worried about the state of the system. We've now had 3 pitching heavy drafts in a row, with little to show for it. There's still lots of time, but instead of taking all these college pitchers in rounds 5-15 with minimal upside, why don't we take toolsy players with a high upside? I see we released Trey Watten....his stuff never really impressed and he was a 9th rounder because?????

[brewmann04]

I would like to see them draft at least least on good Defensive 3rd baseman and draft a few SS prospects.

But in Round one i still like to see them go after Pitching who has a celing to be a #1 or #2 type.We really don't have those types of pitchers in our syatem. The Breweres then after round round can address their othere needs system wide.

[nate82]

I would like to see them draft at least least on good Defensive 3rd baseman and draft a few SS prospects.

I never want to see the Brewers drafting a good defensive anything unless it means the player is also good offensively. It doesn't matter how good a player is at defense if they can not hit they are not going to be on a MLB roster and that right there is a wasted draft pick.

[YoungGeezy]

You can almost always make a great bat work (you can somewhere to hide them) but you can't always make a great defender work (Defense is no good if you have to sit on the bench) I'd take a Lawrie or Baez 100x over before I go good defender. With prospects how well they hit is the most important thing.

[TheCrew07]

Pitchers drafted in this range in recent years include Tim Lincecom, Mike Leake, and Mike Minor.

Actually I was thinking specifically of a player like Leake when I posted that, I think he'll settle in as a good #3, but his FB velocity is awful average, not to mention that he was drafted #8 overall. I had read someplace that his FB touched 94, but when I checked fangraphs his velocity is in that 88-89 range. I was thinking specifically about guys in that top tier velocity wise, the mid 90s FB with control and a full arsenal of pitches. Lincecum was a top 10 pick, actually the 10th overall, and prior to his success not the type of big bodied pitcher the Brewers would have gone after. As a sidenote I'm still somewhat pleasantly surprised they drafted Thornburg. As for Minor he was drafted 7th overall, the same spot as LaPorta and Fielder. Again a top 10 pick, and not where we'll be picking any time soon.

 

I agree that in theory there isn't much difference between the 10th pick and the 12th pick, but the best college pitcher taken #12 overall in the last 20 years is probably Joe Saunders? I guess one could argue Aaron Crow or Billy Wagner who are/were RP, but we're talking legit starting pitching aren't we? It's even worse with the 13th pick, Kyle Peterson is arguably the best starting pitcher in that group. Jeff Weaver is the cream of the crop at #14... and at #15 the outlook is a little bit better, Alex White has legit velocity and decent 3 pitch arsenal, but he's the only college pitcher to make it as a SP in the last 20 years from that slot. #16 Kip Wells, #17 no college pitcher (unless you count Ben Diggins), #18 R.A. Dickey, #19 Andrew Cashner (used in relief last season and hurt now, not sure if he's a SP long term or not), #20 Eric Milton... I think you get the idea.

 

Just to use the #15 pick as an example: Kazmir and Carpenter were HS SP picked at that slot who ultimately became top of the rotation starters. The college bats actually faired well in that slot with Stephen Drew and Chase Utley being taken there, and who can forget our very own Gabe Gross!

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't take a college player who has polish and upside if there is one at that slot in this draft, I'm just disputing the notion that that type of college pitcher has existed in the Brewers current draft range in the past. It's much more realistic to grab an impact college hitter in that range than a college pitcher, not a single 1-2 pitcher has been drafted out of college in that range in 20 years.

[nate82]

2006 Max Scherzer was selected by Arizona at the 11th pick. Still undecided on what he will be yet while the Cubs drafted Tyler Colvin a college player at the 13th pick in 2006. I do agree with you that we are not going to be getting a #1 or a #2 type starter from the college ranks at the picks we are at. I like Cron with the 15th pick as that would be a good pick while I am undecided on who the Brewers should take at the 12th pick. The Brewers could end up with another Jeffress take that whatever way you want to take it either good or bad.

[LouisEly]

Just to use the #15 pick as an example: Kazmir and Carpenter were HS SP picked at that slot who ultimately became top of the rotation starters.

 

IIRC, the reason Kazmir lasted that long was his (and his agent's) signing demands. IIRC, Kazmir was talked about as the #1 overall but no one was willing to pay his demands until the Mets picked.

[paul253]

This draft is deeper than most of the ones in recent memory. A #15 pick this season may very well have been an 8-12 pick any other year. Just saying.

 

The thing I don't like about Cron is that he is stuck at first base. If there is no opening when he ready, what do you do with him? You either make a trade, which you don't have a whole lot of leverage, or HOPE he can handle the outfield. And even if he can you're stuck with yet another below average defender.

 

Really the only position players I'd want with the first two picks who still have a chance of being there would be Lindor, Baez, Swihart or maybe Springer.

[UeckerPowell]

Frankie Piliere came out with his second mockdraft yesterday. Interesting he has the Brewers drafting Archie Bradley and Mikie Mahtook while passing on Francisco Lindor who fell all the way to the Angels at 17.

 

 

12. Brewers - Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow H.S. (Okla.)

 

Milwaukee has been linked to a boatload of names, and they may believe they won’t get their shot at Archie Bradley. It’s hard to see them resisting his arm twice in the same round. Jungmann and Mahtook also lead their short list.

15. Brewers - Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU

 

Mahtook probably won’t fall any further than this. He has a lot of takers, including the Cubs at pick nine. Again, Milwaukee is letting this thing play out and are considering a large variety of names.

[paul253]

Does anyone know how the Brewers actually feel about Archie Bradley? Obviously the talent is there and I'd love for them to grab him but my biggest question is whether or not they'd be willing to sign him.

[ListachRides]

Can you imagine coming away with Bradley and Lindor? Boy would that make me happy.

[brewmann04]

I think the Brewers will have the Money to sign both their picks and they will go after the higher celing player instead of a signable guy.

Hopefully we add a pitcher that projected to be a top of the Rotation guy.

[YoungGeezy]

Yeah I don't think the Brewers are in a position to pick safe or worry about signing bonuses. As of right now, our system is not good and we really lack top end talent. Take the best two guys with the highest ceilings available at those spots. They have it budgeted and if they pay a little more all that means is we can't spend as much on the 15-20 rd guys. Brewers have proved that they will do everything in there power to lock up there top 20 or so picks. Not many sneak through the cracks.

 

A. Bradley, Lindor, Guierrieri, Baez, Swihart, Norris, Springer, Mahtook, Gray, Barnes, are all guys i'd take with open arms in this draft at 12-15 Howard, Nimmo, Fernandez, Fisher, Hedges are outside shots for 15 but in a normal draft class they would usually fit right in there. Cron and Michaels would be okay. Not as high on but hey another LaPorta wouldnt be the end of the world, Levi Michaels is said to be a poor mans S. Drew.

 

Some of the guys I'd like to see in round 2 or 3

3B Bichette Jr. SS Christian Lopes, SS Phillip Evans, 1B Dan Vogelbach, 2B Joshua Tobias, SS Tyler Greene, OF Larry Greene, SS/RHP Trevor Story, 3B Jason Esposito, C/1B Nicky Delmonico, RHP Kyle Winkler, OF Billy Flamion, LHP Sean Gilmartin, SS Brandon Loy

[UeckerPowell]

I think if they feel Archie Bradley is the best player available at pick #12 they will pick him regardless of price but if they don't pick him at 12 they really can't consider him at 15 because he has way too much levage to risk an unprotected pick on. I could be wrong though since they can sign him to a two sport contract and spread out his bonus.Francisco Lindor on the otherhand would be consider with both picks because even though he is going to want over slot money he is more than likely going to sign.

[YoungGeezy]

I think this draft may the most exciting one to watch unfold since I begun following closely in 2003 (was big into the Young or Weeks debate, that kinda got me into it). So many guys can either be top 5 picks or drop down to the Brewers #15 because of how deep this draft is. You have guys like Lindor and Springer who both at times have been locked in as high a #2 or #3 now you see them ranging all the way down to 17-18 and there is a lot of cases like that. Cole, Rendon, Hultzen are top 5 locks it appears but then Starling, Bundy, Lindor, J. Bradley, Bauer, A. Bradley, Jungmann, Gray, Purke, Guierrieri, Barnes, Springer, amongst others all could really fall in anywhere in the top 15 picks and not be a reach. I'm excited

[ListachRides]

Some statistical analysis of Jungmann, Mahtook, Michaels and others from one of the guys at College Splits http://insider.espn.go.co...er/news/story?id=6615121 (ESPN Insider only).

 

Pretty depressing take on Jungmann and Mahtook if they're two of our top targets as gets so frequently mentioned. Suggests Mahtook might have some serious platoon issues and expresses concern about Jungmann's strikeout rate. Of the two, I'd say Mahtook worries me more.

[brewmann04]

Please take the two guys with the highest celings we don't need a 4th outfielder or a middle of the rotation guy.

[LouisEly]

but the best college pitcher taken #12 overall in the last 20 years is probably Joe Saunders?

Or this guy, who makes a pretty good argument for not passing over college pitchers at #12.

 

In that same year, a left-hand hitting college shortstop who has averaged a .800 OPS over the last two seasons was picked at #15 and was in the majors two years later.

 

I don't think many would have an issue with that outcome this year at all.

[YoungGeezy]

Asking for way to much money was the issue with both of them. Both were thought of as top prospects in the draft and could have gone from 1-5 easy. So if Gerrit Cole and and the likes of Anthony Rendon were to set extreme standards for signing such as Weaver and Drew and fall to 12 and 15 that would be incredible but doubtful. Weaver and Drew were strongly considered by Padres for number 1 spot before Towers made one of the worse pick in baseball history, Matt Bush.

 

So if this plays out like 2004 I would be the happiest man in the world!!! Even more if it is the price of Starling and Bradley that bring them to us but once again not too likely.

[trwi7]

Frankie Piliere has the Brewers taking Archie Bradley at 12 and Mahtook at 15. Says the Brewers are considering "a large variety of names" and will let it play out. Also says the Cubs are interested in Mahtook at 9.

[YoungGeezy]

Id be happy if Cubs went Mahtook, no knock on him but I personally would rather have Springer at 15. He is bigger, faster, supier arm, quicker wrist and swing, better college performer, and I think has a higher ceiling as where Mahtook is a little lower ceiling with close to equal floor. If we went Mahtook though 15 id be fine with that. Both will be 22 to start next season so not as excited about more old guys stuck A ball. Maybe they will get Hunter Morris treatment though to off-set it

[narwhalattack]

Anyone a little suspicious of Guerrieri's sudden helium? He didn't get noticed that much until either January or February, and then suddenly shot up through draft boards. Is he really gonna sustain his stuff and velocity? Eric Arnett also had a sudden helium and saw a jump in velocity, and when he got to the minors, he just crashed and burned. Not saying that Guerrieri = Arnett, but I'm a little suspicious about the sudden helium.

 

Also, any chance the Astros skip out on A. Bradley (so the Brewers can draft him)?

[trwi7]

Just tweeted Piliere about options at 12 and 15 (he doesn't like doing anything after the 1st round).

 

Says Archie Bradley is a real option for them. I'm kind of surprised, I never really thought he would be an option due to bonus demands. Says they're looking at college bats like Springer and Mahtook. Everything is on the table.