2011 General Draft Discussion

[ListachRides]

Just an update for the Josh Bell fans: he apparently sent a letter to MLB scouting services saying he doesn't want to sign and wants to go to school. Klaw suggested it's a common negotiating tool, but the BA writers seemed to think it's pretty serious. Callis said Bell wouldn't go first round, but someone might roll the dice later in the draft and see if a boat load of money will change his mind.

[RyDogg66]

I would wet myself if we got Lindor and Gray, much less one of them. Gray is most fav. pitching prospect given where we are picking and Lindor is my favorite hitting prospect, again given where we are picking.

[YoungGeezy]

Since we all know we will be snagging a couple of Canadians in the draft here is a nice site to check out: http://www.canadianbaseba...ork.com/draft-list/2011/

 

So of the most interesting guys I have found on the list are:

 

Tom Robson: 6'4 200 lbs RHP, top prospect in Canada. Doesn't throw to hard but has overall good stuff. Is projected to go 3-6 rd

 

Dustin Houle: Another Catcher-3B prospect from the Langely Blazers. Is suppose to have a pretty solid bat and is rated number 2 for HS pitchers.

 

Cory Scammell 6'5 200 OF. "Pro body now with projection ... Arm is below average now but will be a plus in pros ... Has loft in swing and power to all fields but is raw ... May go faster and further than anyone in draft" Seems to have a ton of upside.

 

Vaughn Coverington: 6'4 210 RHP. Pitches 90-92 but had TJ Surgery in 2010. If not for the injury may be considered the top prep Canadian pitcher in the draft.

 

Jalen Harris- 6'2 210 3B Prospect. Outstanding defensive 3B with good hands, feet and arm. He lacks fundamental approach at plate but has good hand quickness, natural loft and bat speed. Once he masters weight transfer look out Effortless arm, Runs a 6.8. Is an okay pitcher (some may look at him there) The weight transfer and watch out part reminds me of Jose Batistau.

 

Trevor Gretsky-Dual citizen but lives and plays in California, and is a 6'4 205 1B prospect who happens to be the son of the "Great One," is a guy I think could be a good snag. Commited to SDST so tough sign 356th on PG top 500 HS list, 42nd on California's top 116 HS list.

[paul253]

Teams do what you suggest in the later rounds all the time.... in the

20s they start looking to fill out roster spots on the rookie teams so

they can field a complete team at each level

 

Sorry, we can move on, but I just wanted to clarify. This is not what I am suggesting. Again, I have never suggested we take a player because of need. I have only 2 arguments. One is spefically Cron vs. Lindor in which I said I'd rather have Lindor. The other is that if you grade a first basemen and a shortstop equally, I'd rather pick the shortstop. I don't care if we don't take any shortstops in this draft because it means that at the time of our selection we obviously didn't think the available shortstops were taking. But if Lindor is available when the Brewers pick, I hope they take him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Cory Scammell 6'5 200 OF. "Pro body now with projection ... Arm is below average now but will be a plus in pros ... Has loft in swing and power to all fields but is raw ... May go faster and further than anyone in draft" Seems to have a ton of upside.

This guy screams Milwaukee Brewers pick

[ListachRides]

Two new mocks up:

 

KLaw's (ESPN insider only) http://insider.espn.go.co...ith&page=LawMockDraft2.0

 

Has Jungmann at 12 and Cron at 15. Says Brewers would probably take Mahtook over Cron, but projects Marlins to take Mahtook at 14. Called Guerrieri an outside possibility.

 

 

Sickels' http://www.minorleaguebal...eball-mock-draft-mark-ii

 

He has Guerrieri at 12 and Mahtook at 15. Has Brewers passing on Lindor twice.

[narwhalattack]

I hope the Brewers don't draft Jungmann. I really don't like the idea of drafting a mid-rotation starter

[YoungGeezy]

Junggmann AND Cron...going the wrong direction there, we need youth and high ceilings. Jungmann is good but not sure if he really is the guy I want. The only words that would come to mind if this was our 12 & 15 are wasted draft and missed opportunity.

[paul253]

I'd be good with some combo of Guerrieri, Gray, Lindor, Baez, Norris or Barnes.

[ListachRides]

What the Brewers need is for the guys they take, whoever they are, to work out the way they're supposed to. Jungmann and Cron aren't my first choices either, but both have high enough ceilings that if they actually reach those ceilings they'll be good picks. Cron's ceiling is a first-level middle of the order hitter. Jungmann could be a #2 starter (scouting reports on his ceiling vary). If the Brewers come away from one draft with a future hitter for the 4/5 spot and a future 2/3 starter that's a terrific draft. It's only a wasted draft if the guys they take don't make significant major league contributions, regardless of ceiling on draft day.

[UeckerPowell]

Keith Law added this to the comment section of his mock draft

"Since posting, I've also heard that the Brewers would consider both Jed Bradley and Taylor Guerrieri at 15, probably over Cron."

[ListachRides]

Good to hear. Was wondering whey they weren't considering Bradley, or why Guerierri would be in the mix at 12 but not 15.

[narwhalattack]

If they're considering Guerrieri and Jed Bradley for 15th, then who are they considering for 12th? I hope it's Archie Bradley

[LouisEly]

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to compare Cron to drafting Fielder in that they are/were both hitting prospects with limited defensive options and skills. If Cron projects to be the next Fielder then you make him the pick if he's available. I don't know that Cron scores a perfect 80 on the power scale like Fielder did, so that coupled with his limited defensive options/skills makes him less valuable. In other words, Cron would have to project to be the next Fielder to really justify the pick and I don't know if he does.

 

One other difference is that back in 2002 Milwaukee had nothing at the major league level and very little in the minor league system, so it was a stronger argument that you take the person who both projects to have the biggest impact regardless of position because they weren't going to be blocked. Now that they have talent at the ML level - and if the talent leaves they will get compensation back in the form of players via trade or draft picks via free agency - I think taking a player with limited defensive options presents more of a risk because there's a greater chance that player may be blocked at the major league level. While it is likely that Fielder leaves, if the market isn't there and he resigns with Milwaukee, then the only value Gamel has is what he can return in a trade as he is out of options next year.

[UeckerPowell]

Also in the comment section of Keith Law's mock draft. When asked if the Brewers will take George Springer with the 12th or 15th pick? He reply "I understand they'll consider him, but he's unlikely to be their choice."

[YoungGeezy]

Cron equals LaPorta and would be possibly in the similar position depending on Fielder( staying or going), Gamel ( how well he preforms), and if a guy like Morris or Haton, Hawn stake claims to the position. Cron like LaPorta is limited and 1B/DH will be his home. Fielder was a hs kid with power up tha wazzoo, famous bloodlines,and extremely high ceiling.... Cron may some power and d questions but all comparisons stop there.

[LouisEly]

I'll take a stab here at a few rounds, knowing quite well that I'm probably completely off-base about everyone other than the two first round picks:

 

1a (#12) - Matt Barnes, RHP, UCONN

1b (#15) - Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon (walks fewer than Alex Meyer)

2nd - Charlie Lowell, LHP, Wichita St. (won 3-way coin flip over Brett Austin, C, HS, and Joe Panik, SS, St. John's)

3rd - Dante Bichette Jr., 3B/OF, HS

4th - Jake Hager, SS, HS

5th - Blake Snell, LHP, HS

6th - Jack Armstrong Jr., RHP, Vanderbilt

7th - Jake Lowery, C, James Madison

...

11th - David Herbek, SS, James Madison

...

18th - Sean Jamieson, SS, Canisius

 

A little college heavy at the top, but I didn't pick them based on signability - I picked them because I though they were better than other HS prospects ranked around the same spot.

[Never Outhustled]

Junggmann AND Cron...going the wrong direction there, we need youth and high ceilings. Jungmann is good but not sure if he really is the guy I want. The only words that would come to mind if this was our 12 & 15 are wasted draft and missed opportunity.

 

Both would be great selections. Picking polished, proven players with long track records of success has worked in the past for the Brewers. Both players were good as freshman, have made impressive improvements each year, and have been absolutely dominant this year. The Brewers failures came when they picked unpolished hard-throwing HS pitchers, or college players without long track records.

 

I don't see how Cron could be considered to have a low ceiling. He was simply far and away the best hitter in college baseball this year, he not only has terrific power, (80 raw power), but is also an outstanding pure hitter with very good bat control. He has way more flexibility in his swing than LaPorta. LaPorta is 12th in the majors in 1B OPS. Cron is also the son of a former major leaguer who is now a coach. He'll adjust easily to pro ball.

 

I also think it's silly for a couple of scouts to say he might not be able to play 1B. He started at catcher in college for 2 years. He's 6'4". I guarantee he'll be a better defensive 1B than the 5'10" extremely over-weight kid with stiff hands and poor fundamentals that played 1B for the Brewers the last several years.

[paul253]

I think with two picks you can afford to be a little riskier with one of them. Cron would be a great pick if the Brewers had one pick. A good hitter, though very limited defensively, who would immediately become one of the best hitters in the system. I understand Geezy's point though. Instead of trying to get on base with a couple of singles why not go for the home run, or at least a double? I think Lindor would be a great pick if he's around. I think Guerrieri and Baez would be good picks if they are around as well. If you're going to go pitcher I want guys with at least the upside of a #2. I've read Barnes could be a #2. Maybe Gray. Like I said Guerrieri. Not sure what Norris profiles as but we could use another lefty. Who knows. It's going to fun to watch.

 

On a side note, is the draft being televised again? If so, ESPN or MLBTV?

[DHonks]

dang, I just realized I won't be able to watch the draft as I'll be driving cross-country. Perhaps I can load the draft updates on my phone at rest stops

[TheCrew07]

Picking polished, proven players with long track records of success has worked in the past for the Brewers.

Unless you are talking about a Price, Strasburg, or Prior type, someone who's got top of the rotation stuff and MLB ready coming out of college... college pitchers with polish means high floor/low ceiling type players to me. We just aren't going to get that kind of top tier college pitcher drafting in the teens, unless one falls to injury or signability, in which case we probably aren't taking him anyway. We have a plethora of 3-5 starters in the system, but we have little legitimate impact talent.

 

I guess it depends on what you mean by polished, I would guess you're talking offensively with position players because I'm struggling to come up with a college bat that was MLB ready defensively. LaPorta wasn't even ready as they tried to convert him to the OF to build his value, though Cleveland has him playing where he belongs.

 

Teams that went the polished college player route throughout their drafts killed their systems, even Oakland. You might graduate more players that way and you'll certainly win more games through the minors, but I'd rather have a losing record at every single level with 3-5 legit prospects on each team than win the way Helena did. Yes graduating someone is better than graduating no one, but then what exactly are we building towards? More mediocrity? Honestly that's my greatest fear is that Seid tries to replenish the system quickly with that kind of college talent, making a bad situation that much worse. I'd rather he continue on the patient developmental approach.

 

As far drafting guys without a position, anyone drafted this summer is likely at least 2 years away from contributing. There will be plenty of holes to be filled by the time these guys arrive. The only players we have under contract more than 3 years are Braun and Lucroy, we'll potentially have openings at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, CF, and RF by the time these draftees would be ready. Gamel certainly has the potential to stick someplace, but until he proves otherwise attitude questions will continue to dog him. I say this, if the bat is that special, you take the bat position be damned, even if you have to trade him for a different piece down the line, grab the talent.

 

Looking at our system, what hitters can we feel really good about? Kris Davis is about it for me personally, he does everything well, is ascending with age and level, and gets glowing reports for his work ethic. They could slide Braun over to RF to make room for Davis, or maybe Davis ends up playing 1B if Gamel stinks it up. It just stinks that his arm is weak enough that RF isn't an option, he'd make a nice replacement for Hart otherwise. Erik Komatsu probably deserves to be in the conversation, I'm just not sure where he fits either because I'm not sure he'll for enough power to be a starter at a corner OF spot. I definitely wouldn't mind his OBP skills and limited power in the line-up someplace, we could use a couple of hitters like him, but again I'm not sure where he fits.

[YoungGeezy]

Standing O for thecrew07! Awesome post, couldn't put any of your main points better. The exact reason I hammer youth so much.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i really like matt barnes and the high school kid from tennessee. i think they would be great for the crew if they go 2 pitchers. is matt purke's arm issue the main reason he has dropped so much? wasnt he back on the mound after just a couple weeks? he was a top 15 pick a couple years ago and from what i've seen has done very well in college. kinda surprised to see him drop into the second round(or supplemental) in most mock drafts.

[narwhalattack]

My mock draft through the first 15 picks:

 

1) Pirates- Anthony Rendon

2) Mariners- Gerrit Cole

3) D-Backs- Danny Hultzen

4) Orioles- Dylan Bundy

5) Royals- Bubba Starling

6) Nationals- Jed Bradley

7) D-Backs- Trevor Bauer

8) Indians- Taylor Jungmann

9) Cubs- Sonny Gray

10) Padres- George Springer

11) Astros- Francisco Lindor

12) Brewers- Archie Bradley

13) Mets- Alex Meyer

14) Marlins- Taylor Guerrieri

15) Brewers- Matt Barnes

 

Taylor Guerrieri COULD be the Brewers' 12th pick, due to the Brewers' heavy interest in him, but I think that Archie Bradley's stuff, athleticism, and upside will be very tough to resist.

[Never Outhustled]

Unless you are talking about a Price, Strasburg, or Prior type, someone who's got top of the rotation stuff and MLB ready coming out of college... college pitchers with polish means high floor/low ceiling type players to me. We just aren't going to get that kind of top tier college pitcher drafting in the teens

Good thing we're picking 12th then instead of in the teens. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Pitchers drafted in this range in recent years include Tim Lincecom, Mike Leake, and Mike Minor. Not sure how you call Lincecom low ceiling. All 3 of those pitchers were under-drafted while teams ignored there production. I'm guessing it's the same scouts who called those pitchers low ceiling that are calling Jungman a #3. Jungman has #1 upside. There's more to an ace than throwing 98. Command matters too. In a draft loaded with college pitching, it's easy to believe the Brewers can get a top pitcher with the 12th pick.

 

 

Teams that went the polished college player route throughout their drafts killed their systems, even Oakland.

Obviously I'm not talking about doing this through the whole draft, only when the polished colligiate players are dominant players that are the best available. Rounds 2 and 3 could be HS talent if the the best available. Also, The Brewers could use the money they save at 12 ands 15 to draft and sign a Brooks Hall or Scooter Gennet type later in the draft, or actually sign a Kyle Winkler type that they drafted but didn't sign in the past.

 

Gamel certainly has the potential to stick someplace, but until he proves otherwise attitude questions will continue to dog him

True, not to mention that he will be 27 next year. He's only a couple years away from be past his prime years.