2011 General Draft Discussion

[colbyjack]

(1/13/11):  I am updating this thread to include links from pertinent conversations from last year's draft, including the 2010 draft resource thread, the official draft pick selection and signing thread as well as the individual discussion threads.  Once the draft order is finalized, I will make a not of that as well, but feel free to use this thread for any and everything leading up to the draft in June.

 

2010 Official Draft Pick Selection & Signing Thread2010 General Draft Discussion2010 Official Draft Pick Discussion - Rounds 1-52010 Official Draft Pick Discussion - Rounds 6-202010 Official Draft Pick Discussion - Rounds 21-502010 Official Draft Resource Thread

 

Now that the signing deadline has come and gone, with three unsigned first-rounders, here is how the draft would shake out if the season ended now.  Tie-breakers awarded to the team with the worse record the previous season.

 

 

1.  Pirates .339

2.  Orioles .353

3.  Mariners .387

4.  D-Backs .395

5.  Royals .415

6.  Indians .415

7.  D-Backs (Barret Loux)

8.  Cubs .420

9.  Nationals .432

10.  Padres (Karsten Whitson)

11.  Astros .436

12.  Brewers .462

13.  A's .487

14.  Marlins .487

15.  Brewers (Dylan Covey)

16.  Tigers .492

17.  Mets .500

18.  Dodgers .504

19.  Angels .504

20.  Rockies .521

21.  Blue Jays .534

22.  White Sox .531

23.  Cardinals .560

24.  Giants .563

25.  Red Sox .563

26.  Phillies .564

27.  Reds .568

28.  Rangers .573

29.  Twins .576

30.  Braves .585

31.  Padres .598

32.  Rays .610

33.  Yankees .610

[paul253]

Dbacks are looking to be in a good position.

[HiAndTight]

This is likely a bit naive, but I'd really love to see them hold back just a bit this year on Free Agency, cut their big league payroll about 10 million and just go wild next year. Grab the two BEST players at 12 and 15 and just make sure they sign, and then if a Stetson Allie type falls, lock him up. Go after a couple of the big names on the LA market.

 

A little bit of luck, a little bit more money, and a lot of aggression and you could have a franchise changing draft/FA period next year.

[RyDogg66]

Cant the brewers be just as aggressive next year with their pick given that they have 1.7 million they didnt spend this year? What good is having the 15th pick if we spend it on Kyle Peterson?

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers pick conservatively most years, and have still had a lot of success. Matt LaPorta at $2 million was a better buy than Andrew Brackman at $3.3 million. Picking early to mid 1st round makes it possible for the Brewers to get high quality talent picking conservatively. If the Brewers start picking late 1st round, then conservative picks might be more problematic. Mike Minor and Mike Leake were criticized for being conservative picks in last years draft, I wish we had picked high enough to make those conservative picks.

I do wish we'd spend more on the draft, but I'd like to do that in rounds 2-4, pick up guys like Tim Mellville, Will Myers, and AJ Cole. We did add Kentrail Davis that way, and thats turned out better than I anticipated.

This is likely a bit naive, but I'd really love to see them hold back just a bit this year on Free Agency, cut their big league payroll about 10 million and just go wild next year. Grab the two BEST players at 12 and 15 and just make sure they sign, and then if a Stetson Allie type falls, lock him up. Go after a couple of the big names on the LA market.

The baseball budgett is based on projected revenue, not previous seasons revenue. So if the team decides to go cheap with the MLB team, that would lead them to project reduced attendance, thus projecting less revenue. The extra $10 million dollars wouldn't be there to spend. Money not spent this year simply becomes profit and increases the value of the franchise. It doesn't carry over into next years budget. The best way to increase the draft budget is expect to win big and make money at the MLB level.

[paul253]

I agree with HiandTight. Forget picking conservatively. Pick the two bet players and sign them. Most players who get picked that high don't want to risk going back to school or playing in independent ball. So even though they would have more leverage than Milwaukee, I don't think they would dramatically increase their demands just because Milwaukee picked them. I know it's still very early, but this past draft looks very underwhelming. Go for broke next season and inject into your team the two best players you can get. If it costs you an extra million dollars or so, who cares.

[colbyjack]

With all due respect, its easy to say that the team should draft aggressively. Who doesn't want their team to draft like the Boston Red Sox and drop a ton of money into players that drop further than they should?

 

As X pointed out, just because teams, including the Brewers, don't do that, doesn't make them bad at what they do when it comes to the draft, as good talent can still be had. I don't think money really played a single part of not signing Covey this past year, and I wonder how much the team's re-opening their DR academy effective their signings from this year's draft class. However, and I would have to go back to confirm this, but it did seem that they signed most of their picks for more than what the recommended values were. That may not seem like much, but it does add up.

 

I'm pretty excited about next year. I paid extra close attention to the '11 talent on hand in Regional, Super Regional and College World Series play in May/June, along with those that played on the Cape, the Northwoods League and other college summer leagues, as well the most prominent high school showcases and tournaments (PG National, East Coast Pro, Area Codes, UA All-America and Aflac), and think there is good reason to be excited about next year's draft pool.

[colbyjack]

Here's an update through games played on 9/1/10:

 

1. Pirates .331

2. Orioles .368

3. Mariners .391

4. Indians .398

5. D-Backs .410

6. Royals .421

7. D-Backs (Loux)

8. Nationals .425

9. Cubs .425

10. Padres (Whitson)

11. Astros .466

12. Brewers .466

13. Angels .485

14. Mets .489

15. Brewers (Covey)

16. Tigers .489

17. A's .492

18. Dodgers .507

19. Marlins .508

20. Blue Jays .519

21. Rockies .523

22. Cardinals .527

23. White Sox .549

24. Giants .552

25. Rangers .564

26. Phillies .564

27. Red Sox .564

28. Padres .576

29. Twins .579

30. Reds .586

31. Braves .586

32. Rays .617

33. Yankees .624

 

I think it's clear that the Brewers will likely be drafting either 11th or 12th overall with their "own" pick. They play the Astros 3 times in August, and my money would be on the Astros finishing the year with a better record than the Brewers. Of their remaining 26 games in which they don't play one another, the Astros opponents' winning % is .462 and the Brewers' is .527. Both teams do face the Reds 6 more times each, while 16 of the Astros remaining 26 games are against the Pirates, D-Backs, Nationals and Cubs.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd like the Brewers to spend the most money in the draft the next 2 years. Sign players over slot. Teams don't want to draft certain players in the first round because of the money they would ask for. I'm wanting the Brewers to throw money at them and that would give the Brewers additional 1st round picks. I don't understand why they don't do this?

[colbyjack]

I finally got around to getting the top 50 prospect list up at 5 Tool Talk. I have notes and observations up (most available from the homepage) from most of my work this past summer. Check the archives in the features and notes sections for more info pertaining to some of the top players. The talent at the top could be pretty special.

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/topprospects.html

[colbyjack]

Since the Packers/Bills game didn't provide any Sunday stress, I was able to put the finishing touches on the first 2011 draft-related Dandy Dozen during the game:

 

http://www.5tooltalk.com/dandydozen.html

 

I'm going to try and get a new one up every 2-3 weeks so that by the New Year I'll have 50+ reports on the site before the spring scouting season starts back up, so stay tuned for updates.

[CheezWizHed]

Cole, who was selected in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Yankees but decided to honor his commitment to UCLA....

 

An unsigned first-round pick out of high school in the 2009 draft... (Matt Purke)

 

Interesting that two of the dandydozen (not to mention two of the top rated) were former unsigned 1st round picks... I hate that Covey "got away", but it happens. But at least it rarely happens to the Brewers.

[monkeyman343434]

Colby, do you think Cole or Purke have a chance to fall to the Brewers at #12, and if either of them would, do you think the Brewers would come up with the money to sign either?

[sveumrules]

I would guess that neither of them fall (barring some type of unforeseen incident prior to the draft) to the Brewers at 12, though if they did I would certainly hope Mark A could find the requisite cash somewhere in his seat cushions to get it done.

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers are presently sitting at pick #11, and they're actually closer to pick # 9 than they are to #12. The Cubs are red hot, and are really moving up. This draft looks so much better than last years, simply based on the quality college bats available.

[colbyjack]

Already mentioned, but I don't see Cole or Purke falling past the top 3-5 picks. If they do, money and/or injury is involved, both of which more than likely would cause them to continue to fall.

 

The 2011 draft has a handful of interesting college bats, but it's not loaded there. If anything, that's one thing keeping next year's draft from being considered special, a la 2005. Rendon and Springer are pretty exciting at the top, and while there is some interesting depth, there aren't really any true impact hitters. The arms once again should define next year's crop.

[ListachRides]

I'd love to get Barnes or Gray with the 9th or 11th pick. I'm curious how you think Barnes compares to Matt Harvey.

 

Any idea how you see the 15th pick playing out? I'm obviously not looking for specific names this early, just wonder how you think the Brewers would approach an unprotected pick. Probably has to be an overdraft of some kind. I figure the two possibilities are a lower-ceiling college guy (hopefully not a reliever) or a slightly overdrafted high schooler with reasonable bonus demands along the lines of the Biddle/Jackson rumors this past year. I'd prefer the latter approach.

[colbyjack]

I think the 10th-15th area will be an excellent range to pluck up some of the top prep players. There should be some good college arms in that range (even if they don't profile as future aces), including Jed Bradley, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer and possibly even Gray if scouts are still concerned with his height (and Austin Wood of USC and Ryan Carpenter of Gonzaga are players I have rated more highly than other places). I do agree that they will probably target more of a safe pick with the 15th selection, although that doesn't mean they necessarily have to reach for such a player.

 

Barnes is getting a lot of love after his summer performance for the top 5-7 overall picks, so if he continues to improve, I wouldn't expect him to make it to the Brewers picks. I'm not sure if Harvey is a good comp. Barnes' secondary stuff is still developing, but he has a loose arm and a live fastball, and may be more similar to Asher Wojciechowski or Tanner Scheppers.

[ramssuperbowl99]

The Brewers are presently sitting at pick #11, and they're actually closer to pick # 9 than they are to #12. The Cubs are red hot, and are really moving up. This draft looks so much better than last years, simply based on the quality college bats available.

The Brewers are now just 1 game "back" of the Cubs for the 9th pick. Since the Padres get the 10th pick for not signing their first rounder, finishing a game or two behind the Cubs would really improve the talent available to the Crew. Specifically, I'd like them to target one of the top 3 prep arms in the country (Archie Bradley, Daniel Norris, and Dylan Bundy). Then at 15, you can pick a college pitcher who falls or a pitcher who can run through the system quickly - someone like an Alex Wimmers, Mike Minor, or Kyle Gibson.

In the later rounds, I'd like to see the Brewers spend some of their high picks on additional 1st round high school talent. If we could devote $4M of the money we save in Prince, our farm system will go from fringe top 10-12 to one of the top 5 in the game immediately.

 

[ListachRides]

I think the 10th-15th area will be an excellent range to pluck up some of the top prep players. There should be some good college arms in that range (even if they don't profile as future aces), including Jed Bradley, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer and possibly even Gray if scouts are still concerned with his height (and Austin Wood of USC and Ryan Carpenter of Gonzaga are players I have rated more highly than other places). I do agree that they will probably target more of a safe pick with the 15th selection, although that doesn't mean they necessarily have to reach for such a player.

Thanks for the response. If any of Bradley/Hultzen/Bauer are realistic targets for the unprotected pick at 15, sign me up. One of those three plus a high-upside guy at 9 or 11 would make a great start to a draft. Because whichever of those guys we got would presumably move quick, it would also help make up for losing out on Covey this year, the way a comp pick is supposed to work.

[jjkoestler]

The Brewers are now just 1 game "back" of the Cubs for the 9th pick. Since the Padres get the 10th pick for not signing their first rounder, finishing a game or two behind the Cubs would really improve the talent available to the Crew.

On one hand, I'd love for the Brewers to finish ahead of the Cubs for the obvious satisfaction of outplaying your rival and it would mean a free case of beer (really expensive beer as we are allowed to build our own case) for me from my buddy who is a Cubs fan.

 

On the other hand selecting in the top 10 would be pretty great given the talent in this draft (thanks for all the draft info Colby), but it would cost me bragging rights and a case of beer.

 

Colby/All - Is there a huge difference on your draft board between 9th and 13th?

 

All - Are you rooting for the Brewers to finish behind the Cubs? I'm torn.

[colbyjack]

If I had a case of tasty beer and bragging rights on the line, I'd root for the Brewers.

 

I'm not rooting for the Brewers to finish with a worse record than the Cubs, but I would like it to happen, if that makes sense. Just having the ability to jump 2 spots by finishing worse than the Cubs seems like worthwhile jump, and being in the top 10 may give the Brewers a chance to take one of the premium college arms such as Barnes or Gray.

 

If one of those premium college arms isn't at the Brewers first pick, I would probably take a prep bat like Blake Swihart and then a polished college arm (Bradley/Hultzen/Bauer as suggested) that shouldn't pose a signing risk at #15. The organization needs another impact bat in the system, and while I like guys like Jackie Bradley and Francisco Lindor, they don't exactly project to be impact hitters at the next level. Swihart is the second best pure hitter in this draft after Rendon IMO.

[monty57]

I was given skybox tickets to the Cubs/Cardinals game this Saturday. With the Cardinals as the opponents, and the chance for the Brewers to gain two draft spots, I'll be pulling for the Cubs while I'm there. I won't be able to outright cheer them on, but I can hope they'll win, which I haven't said in a long time.

[trwi7]

All - Are you rooting for the Brewers to finish behind the Cubs? I'm torn.

I've been rooting for the Brewers to finish with the worst possible record since about late May.

[colbyjack]

One week to go...at least we're not a part of Piratesfan.net.

 

1. Pirates - .355

2. Mariners - .381

3. Orioles - .394

4. Royals - .406

5. D-Backs - .410

6. Indians - .417

7. D-Backs (Loux)

8. Nationals - .429

9. Cubs - .452

10. Padres (Whitson)

11. Brewers - .471

12. Astros - .474

13. Dodgers - .481

14. Angels - .484

15. Brewers (Covey)

16. Mets - .490

17. A's - .497

18. Marlins - .497

19. Blue Jays - .516

20. Tigers - .516

21. Cardinals - .516

22. White Sox - .535

23. Rockies - .535

24. Red Sox - .555

25. Red - .558

26. Braves - .558

27. Padres - .561

28. Rangers - .561

29. Giants - .564

30. Twins - .594

31. Phillies - .596

32. Yankees - .596

33. Rays - .600