If JJ Hardy is non-tendered - Utility IF?

[BREWCREW5]

 

Bottom line is this - if Hardy was as good as many on here are trying to imply that he is, he wouldn't be a non-tender candidate for the Twins.

Exactly, Hardy has been brutal the last two seasons now. I am glad we have Escobar.

[Never Outhustled]

Hardy continues to hit well in the 2nd half, and has increased the margin that he's been better than Escobar. Hardy was 2 1/2 times more WAR when the thread started, now he's just a tick under 4 times more WAR. Hardy's OPS is up to 722, while Escobar's down to an embarassing 628.

 

Wasting 1 of Escobar's cheap seasons this year is just another brutal Doug Melvin move. Escobar is in dire need of another year in AAA.

[MNBrew]

Wasting 1 of Escobar's cheap seasons this year is just another brutal Doug Melvin move. Escobar is in dire need of another year in AAA.

That's utter nonsense on so many levels. Escobar's playing a full 162 game schedule for the first time. He's worn down a bit, just like so many rookies playing everyday, but that PT in the bigs is helping his development in the long run. You can't get the equivalent of September (6th full month of the season) experience by still playing in AAA, anyway.

 

When Hardy couldn't hit a barn wall from inside the barn the 1st half of his rookie year, then got so hot to elevate his whole year to the levels of offense Escobar's maintained all year, no one was talking about a cheap year being wasted. Hardy needed that developmental time in the bigs then just like Escobar did now.

 

The premise seemingly behind your Melvin-bashing remark is that any half-decent rookie should arrive in the bigs as a fully-polished product, so to speak. Most rookies don't have a realistic chance of an All-Star first year. And some who do flame out quickly. I'll take the gradual path with the hope that it bodes better for the long run. . . . Escobar's still quite young and should be better at age 28 than Hardy. If he's not, I'm sure we'll have another SS prospect on which to pin our hopes by then, anyway.

 

(Alright, now roast me. Pretty much no other comments in this part of the thread are coming away unscathed.)

[trwi7]

That's utter nonsense on so many levels. Escobar's playing a full 162 game schedule for the first time. He's worn down a bit, just like so many rookies playing everyday, but that PT in the bigs is helping his development in the long run. You can't get the equivalent of September (6th full month of the season) experience by still playing in AAA, anyway.

This is wrong. Escobar played 147 games and compiled 555 at bats last season between Nashville and Milwaukee and then played for Cardenales de Lara in the Venezuelan Winter League where he played 45 more games and got 173 more at bats.

 

 

[logan82]

I don't think playing the whole year in the majors this year is necessarily helping Escobar's development but there really was little reason to leave him down in AAA this year. I like holding guys back a little to preserve service time and I have little doubt that he will be much more valuable in 2016 than he is this year. I really don't believe in having a guy repeat AAA just for service time considerations. If we had kept Hardy Escobar in AAA wouldn't be a terrible option.

[ELCABALLO45]

That doesn't change the fact that Hardy has been better on both sides of the ball this season, which as best I can tell, is what was being discussed. Escobar has been healthier, but that's where his edge over Hardy this season ends.

Escobar has 428 PA vs. Hardy's 270 PA's this season. Someone would have to make up the Hardy missed games and it would have been Escobar getting called up. Thier OBP's are pretty much identical. The only difference is in slugging. Hardy has 104 total bases in 270 PA's and Escobar has 147 TB in 428 PAs. So if you rate Escobar down to Hardy's lower PA's he would have 12 few bases than Hardy in 270 PAs or if Hardy had the same PA's as Escobar and kept his slugging up that would be 17 more bases than Escobar.

 

Of course Hardy is as slow as can be and wasn't the greatest base runner so I would also remember an earlier post someone referenced Escobar scoring from 1st or 2nd when you know Hardy wouldn't have.

 

Escobar also has 10 steals with 4 caught for a net of 6. Hardy is at 0 with one CS and 1 steal. Even giving Escobar something like .66 of a base for his net steals subtracts about 4 bases from that 17 base deficit.

 

All in all given the negligible difference in OBP, basically a 13 base difference in slugging, and better scoring from 1 or 2nd, and just the sheer number of games missed by Hardy I would say their offense is pretty much a wash or even slighly favors Escobar because of the durability and the fact he would have been playing anyway.

I don't know why your going through all this work to figure out the value of these players, when all the factors you mention are included in the formula for WAR, except their formula is properly weighted.

 

WAR shows Hardy as more than twice as valuable as Escobar this year.

 

 

If anything the trade of Gomez for Hardy was pretty much an even swap or even in the Brewers favor. Two guys with poor OBP, limited offensive games who can play defense. The difference being the Twins have to pay Hardy $5.1MM for that production while the Brewers only have to pay $1.1MM to Gomez.

Hardy has been almost 4 times more valuable than Gomez. Gomez is awful. Beyond awful.

Not really

[logan82]

That's utter nonsense on so many levels. Escobar's playing a full 162 game schedule for the first time. He's worn down a bit, just like so many rookies playing everyday, but that PT in the bigs is helping his development in the long run. You can't get the equivalent of September (6th full month of the season) experience by still playing in AAA, anyway.

This is wrong. Escobar played 147 games and compiled 555 at bats last season between Nashville and Milwaukee and then played for Cardenales de Lara in the Venezuelan Winter League where he played 45 more games and got 173 more at bats.

 

I hate when guys who are going to be full time players for our MLB team play winter ball. I hope Escobar doesn't play this year.

[MNBrew]

The biggest problem right now is that Escobar's totally hit the wall here in September, hitting below .200 and with only 2 RBIs over 2.5 weeks so far. We all know how our most recent memory often makes the strongest argument....

 

If, during September, Escobar had only been keeping up his average monthly production for the year prior to September, the intensity of this discussion might be a bit different.

[Never Outhustled]

The biggest problem right now is that Escobar's totally hit the wall here in September, hitting below .200 and with only 2 RBIs over 2.5 weeks so far. We all know how our most recent memory often makes the strongest argument....

 

If, during September, Escobar had only been keeping up his average monthly production for the year prior to September, the intensity of this discussion might be a bit different.

 

Nope. Escobar was bad all season. He didn't have a single good month. He has a homerun hitters swing but the strength of a 14 year old. He needs to dramatically change his approach, and that change shouldn't happen in the majors.

 

When Hardy couldn't hit a barn wall from inside the barn the 1st half of his rookie year, then got so hot to elevate his whole year to the levels of offense Escobar's maintained all year, no one was talking about a cheap year being wasted.

We talked about it non-stop. Most think it was Melvin's 1st bad move with the Brewers. Good minor leaguers eventually might need MLB development time, but Escobar wasn't good in AAA last year. He had a 768 OPS. It was easy to foresee his failure this year.

[LouisEly]

1) Hardy's .722 OPS isn't setting the world on fire either.

 

B) If we had kept Hardy and Escobar in AAA we still wouldn't be competing for a playoff birth.

 

3) Hardy wouldn't be any more valuable in the trade market now than last offseason.

 

Much ado about nothing.

 

Back on topic to the intent of the poster - yes, if Hardy is non-tendered and Counsell isn't brought back I think he would be a great backup utility IF as he could play SS, 3B or 2B.

[ELCABALLO45]

1) Hardy's .722 OPS isn't setting the world on fire either.

 

B) If we had kept Hardy and Escobar in AAA we still wouldn't be competing for a playoff birth.

 

3) Hardy wouldn't be any more valuable in the trade market now than last offseason.

 

Much ado about nothing.

 

Back on topic to the intent of the poster - yes, if Hardy is non-tendered and Counsell isn't brought back I think he would be a great backup utility IF as he could play SS, 3B or 2B.

You got to realize the value of OPS at shortstop. It may only be .720 but compared to the rest of the AL with guys who are head of Hardy with at least 300 at bats

 

1. Yunel Escobar - .768

2. Alexei Ramirez - .740

3. Mike Aviles - .727

[MNBrew]

....Good minor leaguers eventually might need MLB development time, but Escobar wasn't good in AAA last year. He had a 768 OPS. It was easy to foresee his failure this year.

Many hitters aren't power hitters, including a lot of shortstops. For someone guys like Escobar who aren't power hitters, I'm FAR more concerned about BA & OBP than OPS, to the point where any argument on their worth being predicated primarily against the measuring stick of the .800 OPS seems extremely flawed.

[Invader3K]

We talked about it non-stop. Most think it was Melvin's 1st bad move with the Brewers. Good minor leaguers eventually might need MLB development time, but Escobar wasn't good in AAA last year. He had a 768 OPS. It was easy to foresee his failure this year.

Hardy looked like garbage all of last season in the majors. At least Escobar looked good in his limited MLB time. Yes, I know it was a small sample...but Melvin made those moves to get younger and cheaper. Imagine how this team would have looked had Hardy and Cameron been retained...

We know you hate Escobar, Gomez, and most of what Melvin has done. No need to keep drilling over the same points ad nauseum.

[endaround]

If Cameron and Hardy would have been retained the team would have been better off. Cameron gets injured, that means more Edmonds and then Cain. Hardy would have played with Escobar filling in during injury. It wouldn't have changed anything greatly but the Brewers would have been better.

[Never Outhustled]

Many hitters aren't power hitters, including a lot of shortstops. For someone guys like Escobar who aren't power hitters, I'm FAR more concerned about BA & OBP than OPS,

Exactly, this is why Hardy is so much more valuable to winning than Escobar. Hardy is the rare SS with power, while Escobar is a poor OBP hitter. The most disappointing thing about Escobar is that the more he hits in the majors, the more teams exploit his sloppy approach.

[TheCrew]

Exactly, this is why Hardy is so much more valuable to winning than Escobar. Hardy is the rare SS with power, while Escobar is a poor OBP hitter. The most disappointing thing about Escobar is that the more he hits in the majors, the more teams exploit his sloppy approach.

Let's not confuse Hardy with Tulo here - Hardy is a career .260 hitter with 2 20+ HR seasons under his belt. He has shown nothing over the past 2 seasons that indicates he will be returning to that 20+ HR plateau.

 

Escobar meanwhile hit over .300 from 2007-2009 in the minors and also can steal plenty of bases - unfortunately his manager refuses to take advantage of that. The Brewers don't need more HR hitters that strikeout a lot - they need guys to get on base in front of the HR hitters they already have.

 

Escobar also possesses the ability to play elite defense if he can put it all together - While Hardy plays solid defense, I wouldn't call it elite.

 

Reality is that people had the bar set too high for a rookie this season - I still love Escobar's potential and expect him to continue to make strides next season.

[logan82]

The Brewers don't need more HR hitters that strikeout a lot - they need guys to get on base in front of the HR hitters they already have.

 

Escobar doesn't fit that description right now.

 

 

Escobar also possesses the ability to play elite defense if he can put it all together - While Hardy plays solid defense, I wouldn't call it elite.

 

Until he does though Hardy is the superior defender. Over the past 3 years Hardy has the second best SS defense in baseball according to UZR/150. I don't know about you, but I think that could be considered elite.

Reality is that people had the bar set too high for a rookie this season

- I still love Escobar's potential and expect him to continue to make

strides next season.

 

Maybe some people did but he fell short of even my low expectations. He couldn't even post an OBP close to .300 this year. .288, ugh, that is pathetic. I am sure everybody hopes he will make strides next year. Another sub .300 OBP and we may be looking for a new SS towards the middle of next year.

[TheCrew]

Never said Escobar does fit that description - but based on his minor league numbers over the past 3 years, he seems like a good fit to do so. I'm also pointing out that Hardy doesn't fit that at all and we don't need another HR/K guy (which Hardy doesn't really even fit anymore since he isn't hitting HR's that often).

 

As for the UZR/150 - this is a perfect demonstration of why the metric is flawed. Most of us watched Hardy play for years - sorry, but I haven't seen anyone calling him an elite SS or one of the top 5 in the game even - nor do I believe he is. That said, he is very good and above average - but elite he is not. He seems to get that high of ranking with UZR because, according to fangraphs, he is far and away the best in the RngR stat:

 

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

 

I can buy into the fact that hardy is one of the best in the game to get to balls hit in his vicinty - but his vicinty is much smaller than say, a Reyes or Rollins.

 

Escobar is 23 years old..... how many 23 year old, defensive first, players come in and set the league on fire?