Brewers Pitching Since the All-Star Break

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Narverson 4.40 ERA 1.19 WHIP

Gallardo 4.55 ERA 1.55 WHIP

Wolf 5.79 ERA 1.55 WHIP

Bush 6.68 ERA 1.76 WHIP

Parra 7.48 ERA 1.63 ERA

 

I'm really concerned about Yo since his return from injury. Other than getting a full season out of him, is there any reason not to shut him down. He just hasn't had it since his injury. I see no reason not to give some of our kids a chance to get their feet wet in September.

[Ennder]

Shutting Gallardo down at some point would make sense to me. At this point it is probably best if they start thinking of Parra as a RP next year, it is obvious his fastball is not major league quality.

 

Gallardo, Wolf, Narveson and 3-4 random FA or minor league guys.

 

Not really looking good for next year.

[dadofandrew]

Horribly small sample on top, and Parra throws as hard as anyone not named Yo or Axford. He is inconsistent and loses focus.

[joepepsi]

Yo's stats are badly skewed due to the July 27nd outing when he left in the 3rd inning. Otherwise he's been fine, including two very good outings.

 

Wolf has pitched better in the last month except for the Pittsburgh game when he gave up a bazillion runs.

 

Guess I agree, it's a small sample size. But things don't look great for next year's rotation.

[Ennder]

Horribly small sample on top, and Parra throws as hard as anyone not named Yo or Axford. He is inconsistent and loses focus.

 

Statistically speaking Parra has had one of the worst fastballs in baseball each of the past 3 years now. He is throwing it less and less because it is just so hittable. He can throw hard but there is basically no movement on it.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Small sample size? Maybe... but that covers 25-30 starts. Our pitching is simply awful. The laws of statistics would show that atleast one of our pitchers should be reaching their potential. If that is true, and that player is Narverson, we are really really hurting for any decent pitching

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

In my opinion the real issue with Manny is that he is ineffective out of the stretch. I don't know if there are any numbers to support my claim or not. He seems to struggle more with his control out of the stretch and it appears to me that his fastball slows down and flattens out when he is in the stretch. Granted, my "eye test" is not very scientific and is easily disputed.

[logan82]

Small sample size? Maybe... but that covers 25-30 starts. Our pitching is simply awful. The laws of statistics would show that atleast one of our pitchers should be reaching their potential. If that is true, and that player is Narverson, we are really really hurting for any decent pitching

Where are you getting 25-30 starts from? That would be almost a full season and the stats you listed are just since the all star break. Even a full season is a small sample with ERA.

[wisconsinfan47]

Yovani's going to be fine. He's struck out 32 compared to 7 walks in 27.2 innings and hasn't allowed a homer since the break.

[kramnoj]

Where are you getting 25-30 starts from?

 

The topic is Brewers pitching since the ASB. There have been 26 starts since the ASB.

[jerichoholicninja]

If we shut down Gallardo this year do we shut him down every year that we don't make the playoffs? His agent and the Players Union isn't going to like that.

[kramnoj]

Why? He gets paid either way, and his service time isn't affected.

[jerichoholicninja]

Why? He gets paid either way, and his service time isn't affected.

Less money. If he misses 5 starts for no reason that's less stats that he can use to get a bigger contract.

[kramnoj]

Gallardo is signed through 2014, and if he's still good, the Brewers will pick up his 2015 option.

 

The Brewers can't disable Gallardo without his consent. If he gets shut down early this year, it will have no bearing on how much money he gets in 2016.

[JohnBriggs12]

Narveson's WHIP as a starter this season is a very respectable 1.369. That's much better than either Bush (1.567) or Parra (1.732). Considering he's in his first season in a major league rotation, I think he's done quite well though his ERA doesn't reflect it. The team is also 10-10 in his starts. Any team would take that from it's 5th starter. Throw in the fact he doesn't reach arbitration for a couple more years, a very potent and timely bat, and you have your 5th starter for 2011.

 

It should be obvious that this team needs a number 2 and a number 4 starter for next year and that guy isn't on the roster now.

[Invader3K]

It should be obvious that this team needs a number 2 and a number 4 starter for next year and that guy isn't on the roster now.

Yeah, I'd be fine with keeping Narveson and letting Bush walk. Trade Parra or move him to the bullpen (he's had enough chances as a starter). It might be tough to acquire two quality starters this off-season, though.

[LouisEly]

In my opinion the real issue with Manny is that he is ineffective out of the stretch. I don't know if there are any numbers to support my claim or not. He seems to struggle more with his control out of the stretch and it appears to me that his fastball slows down and flattens out when he is in the stretch. Granted, my "eye test" is not very scientific and is easily disputed.

Yes, there are stats that back this up, and back this up very well. ERA with:

- Bases empty: 1.65

- Runner on 1B: 2.37

- Runner on 2B: 1.23

- Runner on 3B: 13.50

- Runner 1B, 2B: 12.38

- Runner on 1B, 3B: 23.40

- Runner on 2B, 3B: 22.50

- Bases loaded: 21.60

 

Small samples, yes. But the trend is pretty obvious. The stats that I would like to see are OPS-A based on inning and #of pitches - i.e. what is his OPS-A in the first inning, 2nd inning, 3rd inning, etc; I'd be willing to bet that it is very good in innings 1-4 or 5 and then skyrockets in innings 6/7. Same with # of pitches - I'd bet it is very good for pitches #1-75, but skyrockets after pitch #75.

 

If in fact the issue is in the stretch vs windup, then it would not be good to put him in the bullpen.

[rluzinski]

How can you have a base-state split for ERA? Meaning, he gives up more earned runs when men are on base? Here is his career splits:

 

http://www.baseball-refer...01&year=Career&t=p#bases

 

All his other career splits:

 

http://www.baseball-refer...01&year=Career&t=p#bases

 

Every starter does worse as the game goes on. We'd have to compare Parra to a league average starter.

[Ennder]

His OPS against splits for his career really do suggest pitching from the stretch could be part of the problem. His OPS against with runners on 1st is higher than without. His OPS against with RISP are actually better than his overall number. I don't know where to find numbers specific to pitching from the stretch though.

[NYChez]

At this point it is probably best if they start thinking of Parra as a RP next year, it is obvious his fastball is not major league quality.

I initially read "RP" as Right-handed Pitcher. For a second, I thought, "That's Parra's problem, he's throwing with the wrong hand".

Regarding the opening post, those are some eye-opening numbers. Looking at major league team stats, all but 2 AL teams have much lower ERA's than the Brewers do, and they've got a DH to deal with. The AL has a lot of pitching depth, and it would be a good idea to take a chance on their leftovers than on NL scrubs like Davis, Hoffman, and Wolf.

[LouisEly]

How can you have a base-state split for ERA? Meaning, he gives up more earned runs when men are on base? Here is his career splits:

 

MLB.com

[Baldkin]

How can you have a base-state split for ERA? Meaning, he gives up more earned runs when men are on base? Here is his career splits:

 

MLB.com

I think Russ's point was that every pitcher in baseball history will have a significantly higher ERA the more runners there are on base. You can't score 4 runs with the bases empty.

For example: Yovani Gallardo

 

ERA

Leading Off 0.53

Bases Empty 0.49

Runner on 1B 1.63

Runner on 2B 4.85

Runner on 3B 16.20

Runners 1B, 2B 3.21

Runners 1B, 3B 17.18

Runners 2B, 3B 40.50

Bases Loaded 14.73

[Fatter than Joey]

Horribly small sample on top, and Parra throws as hard as anyone not named Yo or Axford. He is inconsistent and loses focus.

 

A few things about Al's statement....

 

1.) No sample is too small that it can't be discussed

 

2.) With regard to Parra's velocity -- velocity is behind: location, movement, and secondary pitches. There are scores of pitchers that have had much better careers without Parra's velocity.

 

3.) Parra has been very consistent as a starter -- just not good. In his last 11 starts, 10 of them he has not made it out of the 6th inning, throwing around 100 pitches. If you look at his starts they are really all about the same.

 

4.) You have no idea if focus is his problem any more than you know if he wears his jockstrap backwards.

 

At this point it is probably best if they start thinking of Parra as a RP next year, it is obvious his fastball is not major league quality.

 

I agree with this -- I think Parra could be a good reliever, but I think there is not a lot of hope for Parra as a starter.

 

Over at brewcrewball, we were doing a lot of BRef play index queries looking at Parra's career numbers they are certainly unique. Based on these inquires, I think the initial temptation is to conclude that Parra is a special pitcher -- however I tend to think that what is unique about Parra, is the opportunity he has gotten. There are only a handful of pitchers that have gotten as many starts as he has, while sucking so loudly.

 

In my opinion the real issue with Manny is that he is ineffective out of the stretch.

 

This may be an issue -- I think the real issue though is facing batters the second and third time through the lineup. Maybe it is a stretch issue in some part, but I would tend to think that would be something coaching would pick up on.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Wouldn't a much better stat to use would be BAA or SLG instead of ERA? If Parra allowed a BAA of .225 with the bases empty, and .325 with runners on, i think that would support the notion that he gets uncomfortable

[davego]

Augie makes an interesting point on Manny.