Hawkins back to DL (shoulder weakness); Mike McClendon called up; Zaun to the 60-day DL

[dadofandrew]

Crim was listed at 6-0, but he was not a hard thrower, so it did not make much difference. McClendon, being a ground ball guy, likely does not throw that hard either. Macha suggested he hides the ball well.

[Baldkin]

This explains who #58 was warming up today in the bullpen... I was in the bleachers and couldn't see the scoreboard for the info.

[monty57]

Riske made a comment a while back that when he came to the Brewers they insisted that he start throwing a curveball, which he blames for screwing up his arm.

 

If you don't have a farm that can produce MLB caliber arms, you need to get them somewhere, so yes, it is very nice to see some relievers coming from our system. It's nice that we shouldn't have to pay middle relievers to multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. If we can keep our bullpen and bench homegrown and cheap, it will allow us to use our money on more important positions in the future.

[And That]

I'd be surprised if Riske's contract hasn't been mostly covered by insurance. Maybe Hawkins' too. FWIW, I still think Riske was a good signing, given what we knew at the time.

IIRC, Haudricourt reported that Riske's contract was not covered by insurance.

[Invader3K]

Riske had basically no injury history, and then suffered as severe an injury a player can have; while still being able to eventually return to the game. Hard to blame Melvin for that move.

[FVBrewerFan]

No more multi-year contracts to middle relievers. Especially guys on the wrong side of 30.

Agreed, we've finally got a lot of young power relievers. We should have at least 4-5 guys in our BP the next several years who are promoted from within, not signed from outside the org.

 

Well, I agree there's no reason to sign a vet middle reliever to a Hawkins/Riske type contract next year. But that doesn't mean Melvin made a mistake doing so in the past. Hawkins and Riske were both proven, consistent relievers. I understand what Melvin was trying to do. When you have a rotation that includes Narvy/Parra/Bush/Cappy/Johnny 5 innings then you better have a bully that can eat a lot of innings. So how would we have felt if the opening day pen included Loe, Axford, Chris Smith, Villy, etc.? Sure, some look good now, but I don't think most would have been comfortable with a bullpen full of guys who are unproven, or in the case of Villy, Narvy, Smith, etc. guys that ARE proven- but proven to be mediocre at best. So you sign a proven guy like Hawkins for the 8th, Hoffman for the 9th, and a cast of thousands for middle relief. So I get it, it just didn't work.

[thebruce44]

HiAndTight[/b]]

RockCoCougars[/b]]No more multi-year contracts to middle relievers. Especially guys on the wrong side of 30.

Agreed, we've finally got a lot of young power relievers. We should have at least 4-5 guys in our BP the next several years who are promoted from within, not signed from outside the org.

 

Well, I agree there's no reason to sign a vet middle reliever to a Hawkins/Riske type contract next year. But that doesn't mean Melvin made a mistake doing so in the past. Hawkins and Riske were both proven, consistent relievers. I understand what Melvin was trying to do. When you have a rotation that includes Narvy/Parra/Bush/Cappy/Johnny 5 innings then you better have a bully that can eat a lot of innings. So how would we have felt if the opening day pen included Loe, Axford, Chris Smith, Villy, etc.? Sure, some look good now, but I don't think most would have been comfortable with a bullpen full of guys who are unproven, or in the case of Villy, Narvy, Smith, etc. guys that ARE proven- but proven to be mediocre at best. So you sign a proven guy like Hawkins for the 8th, Hoffman for the 9th, and a cast of thousands for middle relief. So I get it, it just didn't work.

 

If you didn't expect significant regression from Hawkins you were setting yourself up for disappointment. Best case scenario was that Hawkins was worth his $3 mil this year and $4 mil next year. Most likely case was that he came in below value, but still near it. Worst case is that he gets injured and doesn't pitch both years. Considering he is an older reliever, thats a lot of risk for very little upside. I would call that a mistake and I did when the signing took place this offseason.

[monty57]

Best case scenario was that Hawkins was worth his $3 mil this year and $4 mil next year. Most likely case was that he came in below value, but still near it. Worst case is that he gets injured and doesn't pitch both years. Considering he is an older reliever, thats a lot of risk for very little upside.

 

But that's only if you are considering it on a "value over contract" basis. If you forget the contract, the best case was that he would be an above average setup man in 2010 and a good closer in 2011. The probable case would be that he pitched somewhere south of his last few years, which were pretty good. Worst case (as it is with any player) is an injury which doesn't allow the player to perform.

 

If you simply look at "value over contract," than a team filled with the best players in baseball all signed to market value contracts would have "very little upside." If you look at actual value, and forget the contracts, you have an All Star team. GM's (other than maybe Cashman) can't simply "forget the contracts," but they also can't base everything on "value over contract." Most of your guys who provide value over their contract are guys who you bring up through the minors, trade for while they're young, or pick them up off a scrap heap and hope for "lightning in a bottle." With everyone else, you really hope to get equal value to the contract. Unfortunately, we have received far less value than the contract from most of our high money free agent signings, but that doesn't mean signing free agents can't work. Otherwise, no one would pay the high prices, and market value would drop to the level of production.

 

Melvin went into the season with a number of players which were likely to provide a lot of value over their contracts, a few (Suppan, Riske, Hall) who were very likely (or certain) to provide far less value than their contracts, and he tried to fill in some holes at SP (Wolf, Davis), RP (Hoffman, Hawkins) and C (Zaun) that he hoped would perform to their contracts. The fact that we ended up 0-for-5 on the last group goes a long way towards our disappointing season.

 

The easy answer is to say that we just need to build our entire team from the minors, so that everyone's contributing excess value vs their contract, but that's not very realistic. Every team needs to use free agency to some extent... it would just be nice to see more of our FA signings pan out. To topic, it looks like Hawkins will fail to live up to his contract. I hope he will be able to rest up over the winter and become a solid, veteran bullpen arm in 2011 to go along with a lot of young talent from the minors. Overall, his deal won't have too much negative value, but it will probably go down as a bad signing, mainly due to an injury for which you can't really blame Melvin.

[thebruce44]

monty57[/b]] Best case scenario was that Hawkins was worth his $3 mil this year and $4 mil next year. Most likely case was that he came in below value, but still near it. Worst case is that he gets injured and doesn't pitch both years. Considering he is an older reliever, thats a lot of risk for very little upside.

 

But that's only if you are considering it on a "value over contract" basis. If you forget the contract, the best case was that he would be an above average setup man in 2010 and a good closer in 2011. The probable case would be that he pitched somewhere south of his last few years, which were pretty good. Worst case (as it is with any player) is an injury which doesn't allow the player to perform.

 

If you simply look at "value over contract," than a team filled with the best players in baseball all signed to market value contracts would have "very little upside." If you look at actual value, and forget the contracts, you have an All Star team. GM's (other than maybe Cashman) can't simply "forget the contracts," but they also can't base everything on "value over contract." Most of your guys who provide value over their contract are guys who you bring up through the minors, trade for while they're young, or pick them up off a scrap heap and hope for "lightning in a bottle." With everyone else, you really hope to get equal value to the contract. Unfortunately, we have received far less value than the contract from most of our high money free agent signings, but that doesn't mean signing free agents can't work. Otherwise, no one would pay the high prices, and market value would drop to the level of production.

 

Melvin went into the season with a number of players which were likely to provide a lot of value over their contracts, a few (Suppan, Riske, Hall) who were very likely (or certain) to provide far less value than their contracts, and he tried to fill in some holes at SP (Wolf, Davis), RP (Hoffman, Hawkins) and C (Zaun) that he hoped would perform to their contracts. The fact that we ended up 0-for-5 on the last group goes a long way towards our disappointing season.

 

The easy answer is to say that we just need to build our entire team from the minors, so that everyone's contributing excess value vs their contract, but that's not very realistic. Every team needs to use free agency to some extent... it would just be nice to see more of our FA signings pan out. To topic, it looks like Hawkins will fail to live up to his contract. I hope he will be able to rest up over the winter and become a solid, veteran bullpen arm in 2011 to go along with a lot of young talent from the minors. Overall, his deal won't have too much negative value, but it will probably go down as a bad signing, mainly due to an injury for which you can't really blame Melvin.

I understand what you are saying, but in a situation like our bullpen this last offseason, value over contract is exactly what should be measured. We hardly had any payroll to spare, had young cheap guys available, and have been consistently bitten by FA bullpen signings while picking up a scrap heap guy almost yearly. With all of this information available, how could you not evaluate Hawkin's signing based on a value over contract?

 

 

[monty57]

With all of this information available, how could you not evaluate Hawkin's signing based on a value over contract?

 

If you are dealing with a normalized/efficient free agent market, then any time you sign a free agent, you should expect to get contract value in return, not excess value. I'd guess that if our offseason free agent signings had simply played up to the level of their contracts (providing no excess value over what they're being paid), we would be in contention for the Central Division title. However, Wolf, Davis, Hawkins and Hoffman have all played well below their contracts and Zaun was probably playing to his contract until his season-ending injury. Hawkins lost six or seven MPH off of his fastball, so it appears his "regression" has been mainly due to injury and/or fatigue. Had that not happened, he might actually be the one bright spot among our offseason moves.

 

Small/mid market teams like the Brewers do need to continue to look for players with "value over contract," but when you are making decisions, you have to weigh the opportunity costs. Melvin had several options in developing the bullpen coming into 2010. With hindsight, it's easy to say that our best option would have been to pass on Hoffman and Hawkins, and instead simply bring Axford, Braddock, Loe, Smith, etc (guys with potiential to provide a lot of excess value over contract) up to start the season. However, going into this season, we had our sights set on how to make the playoffs. With that in mind, Melvin chose to go with what would appear to be the safer route, as both Hoffman and Hawkins have long, successful track records, while the guys in the minors were far from proven (other than the injury-riddled Braddock, they were mainly a bunch of castoffs... Loe was in Japan, Axford was in Independent League, etc.).

 

Melvin took the information at hand, looked at all of the available opportunities and chose a decent path. The problem is that the free agent players went from being good to being horrible while the guys in the minors performed well above even the rosiest of expectations. As far as the FA signings, even considering the players' ages, their aggregate magnitude of failure has to be off the charts. I'm fine with a few players on the roster getting no excess value, as when you sign a FA, you don't expect excess value, but it's getting tiring seeing so many players play so far below expectation as soon as they sign with the Brewers.

[thebruce44]

I guess my point is that bullpen pitchers tend to be much more volatile than starters or position players (especially when they are older). Melvin knows this as it has repeatedly happened to this team while the track record for finding nobodies who pitch in for a year or two has been surprisingly good. I have no problem expecting to get contract value in return for position players or even starting pitchers. With this knowledge in mind though, I just don't see the upside to signing an older reliever.

 

Again, lots of risk and very little to gain. Young reliever from AAA...no risk and lots to gain. Just my opinion though.

[monty57]

I understand and agree that the bullpen isn't the best place to spend money. It's really pretty sad that we haven't been able to develop many pitchers (including bullpen arms) over the recent past, so it's nice to finally see some talented young arms come up. Hopefully this will allow us to focus our attention and resources elsewhere in the future and we won't have to spend more on our bullpen and bench than we do on much more important positions.

 

I'm still not upset about the Hawkins signing, as I can understand where Melvin was coming from when he made the deal... I'd have been scared to go into the season depending on Axford, Smith, Loe, etc. However, I really hope we don't see any free agent relievers signed for a long time, as we should be able to "grow our own."

[Roderick]

No more multi-year contracts to middle relievers. Especially guys on the wrong side of 30.

Agreed, we've finally got a lot of young power relievers. We should have at least 4-5 guys in our BP the next several years who are promoted from within, not signed from outside the org.

Do we have enough young guys to replace Riske, Hoffman, and potentially Coffey (do you pay him arby? $2.5M?) and Capuano? I'm thinking they are going to have to sign 1 more multiyear free agent reliever yet to get them through to the arms that were drafted lately.

[thebruce44]

I understand and agree that the bullpen isn't the best place to spend money. It's really pretty sad that we haven't been able to develop many pitchers (including bullpen arms) over the recent past, so it's nice to finally see some talented young arms come up.

 

I think we have developed or rather stumbled onto quite a few guys who have gotten hot recently. Maybe thats why we disagree on the Hawkins signing. It seems like whoever we sign for whatever roll eventually gets replaced with a nobody who pitches well for a year or two. I just feel like we all should have seen this coming from a mile away.

[trwi7]

Do we have enough young guys to replace Riske, Hoffman, and potentially Coffey (do you pay him arby? $2.5M?) and Capuano? I'm thinking they are going to have to sign 1 more multiyear free agent reliever yet to get them through to the arms that were drafted lately.

Bullpen next year. Axford, Braddock, Villanueva, Coffey, Hawkins, Loe, Kintzler. Then you have guys like McClendon and Dillard as well. There's really no need to spend big money on relief pitchers. Even if the cheap guys from the farm are worse, they're not going to be that much worse and there's just not a ton of value in relief pitching.

 

 

[JJHardy7]

Bullpen next year. Axford, Braddock, Villanueva, Coffey, Hawkins, Loe, Kintzler. Then you have guys like McClendon and Dillard as well. There's really no need to spend big money on relief pitchers. Even if the cheap guys from the farm are worse, they're not going to be that much worse and there's just not a ton of value in relief pitching.

 

Hawkins might be on that list too if healthy, right? I also think it doesn't hurt to take a one-year flyer on a guy if necessary in terms of free agents. Something cheap and see if you can get lucky for a year. I don't think we'll need to go out and sign a lot of guys.

[trwi7]

Bullpen next year. Axford, Braddock, Villanueva, Coffey, Hawkins, Loe, Kintzler. Then you have guys like McClendon and Dillard as well. There's really no need to spend big money on relief pitchers. Even if the cheap guys from the farm are worse, they're not going to be that much worse and there's just not a ton of value in relief pitching.

 

Hawkins might be on that list too if healthy, right?

Hawkins is on that list. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JJHardy7]

My bad trwi7. I should have been more clearer...with the 'news' that Hawkins is going to maybe go under the knife my point was related to two things:

 

- What is his status next year in terms of his contract? (he doesn't have an option...does he?)

- And do we haven insurance on his deal?

 

I liked the Hawkins signing at the time. And trwi7 I agree with your bullpen...my question relates to Hawkins health. I believe he's on the team no matter what, but I am nervous about whether or not he'll be healthy next year. I do think we've started to build a very good bullpen internally. Again trwi7, I apologize for my crappy response to your post. I think you have the bullpen filled out very well if it works. I worry about Hawkins though and again we can take a flyer.

 

I also think having the bullpen resolved or mostly resolved should allow us to focus more on starting pitching.

[trwi7]

No idea if we have insurance on his deal, but there's no option. It's $4 million guaranteed.

[Roderick]

Bullpen next year. Axford, Braddock, Villanueva, Coffey, Hawkins, Loe, Kintzler. Then you have guys like McClendon and Dillard as well. There's really no need to spend big money on relief pitchers. Even if the cheap guys from the farm are worse, they're not going to be that much worse and there's just not a ton of value in relief pitching.

I guess I assume that we will have a bullpen of 8 guys again next year, and I only see Axford, Braddock, Villy, and Loe as "knowns". Hawkins - injury or lost it? With Coffey's injury and pricetag? Capuano? I can assume 1-2 Kintzlers or McClendons show enough during the spring to make the team, but that doesn't get you to 7-8 guys. I think a "better" veteran signed to a two year contract (as Hawkins salary is gone after 2011) would be a good bridge. A guy willing to settle for a 1 year contract, is going to be even more of a crapshoot than the usual bullpen guy is.

 

Of course the starting pitching needs to be figured out before I would work on the bullpen. And, if after signing a free agent, there is nothing left in the budget, then so be it.

[Invader3K]

I hope if Hawkins' injury is severe, he owns up and just retires rather than trying to come back for another disappointing season.

[monty57]

If he retires, he loses the money the Brewers owe him, so that's probably not likely to happen. He could sit the whole year on the DL if he's injured, but won't retire.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I get that. It would just be nice if the diagnosis is bad, he's just honest with himself and the team. I get that it probably won't shake out that way, though.