Dave Bush Reality Check

[MNBrew]

They've said before about Vazquez that he's not someone built to succeed in New York, and that he's much more comfortable in other markets. The previous time he pitched in NY, his stats took a serious dip, too (14-10 record, but 4.91 ERA and the fewest strikeouts of any year right around that point in his career).

 

Yes, he could be on the career downslope. But he's also shown that pitching for the Yankees has an adverse affect on his performance. It's hard to know which is the more prevalent factor.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sort of interested to know, out of those QS, how many did Bush win

and for the ones he lost, what was the run support/average runs allowed

for them?

4/14 @ CHC: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 R -- N (7-6 loss) 4/20 @ PIT: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 R -- W (8-1) 4/30 @ SDP: 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 R -- L (3-0) 5/11 v ATL: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 R -- L (11-3) 5/16 v PHI: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 R -- L (4-2) 6/01 @ FLA: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 R -- N (6-4 loss) 6/15 @ LAA: 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 R -- W (7-1) 6/25 v SEA: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 R -- W (8-3) 6/30 v HOU: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 R -- L (5-1) 7/05 v SFG: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 R -- N (6-1 loss) 7/10 v PIT: 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 R -- W (4-3) 7/15 @ ATL: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 R -- L (2-1) 7/25 v WAS: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 R -- W (8-3) 8/06 v HOU: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 R -- N (6-5 win)

Here's the link to Bush's 2010 game logs. "N" = no decision above, if that wasn't clear.

[jeffy]

I suppose they could keep one of: Capuano, Davis, or Bush...whichever one will be the cheapest?

 

OTOH, maybe they'll just fill that spot with Narveson or young pitcher x for about $400K, instead.

[Invader3K]

If that's the 2011 rotation, I'm cancelling my season tickets now- unless "pitcher x" is Cy Young.

Well, I really haven't seen anyone lay out a more realistic scenario. Going after Javier Vasquez or some other mediocre FA this off-season doesn't excite me, and it's not like we're going to land Cliff Lee.

[reillymcshane]

Bushie should move on. San Diego would be perfect. Take a one year deal. Assuming they'd want him. His home run tendencies would be muted at a place like Petco, meaning he'd look better than he was, and he could turn that into a bigger deal.

 

In the past, I looked at Bush's peripherals - low walks, decent whip, and then note the long balls as his Achilles heel. Now his peripherals are looking weaker and weaker. Unless it's cheap - $3 million or so - we can probably survive without him.

 

I'd rather throw the dice on a AAAA starter who's just looking for a chance or a Looper type vet who would work for $2 million than over pay Dave.

 

I happen to like Bush a lot, but I just don't see him helping us much in the future.

[Principessa21]

MNBrew]They've said before about Vazquez that he's not someone built to succeed in New York, and that he's much more comfortable in other markets. The previous time he pitched in NY, his stats took a serious dip, too (14-10 record, but 4.91 ERA and the fewest strikeouts of any year right around that point in his career).

 

Yes, he could be on the career downslope. But he's also shown that pitching for the Yankees has an adverse affect on his performance. It's hard to know which is the more prevalent factor.

In his first year with the Yankees, he was good the first half, but got hurt the second and it showed in his performance. So far this year, he stunk the first month+, but has been good/QS the past several months. So I don't believe his performance has anything to do with the team he's on. The problem is that his velocity has been down from last year, and generally all over the place this year. I still believe he'll finish the season solidly, but I wouldn't sign him to anything over a year.

[LouisEly]

I don't think you are appreciating how weak evidence is when it's based on the the results of 122 IP. I think the fact that there was little or no interest in him at the trade line is strong evidence that other teams understand that.

If we go by that argument, then Fielder and Hart have no value either because there was little interest in them at the deadline too. It was a buyers market. And unless DM got a good offer for Bush, if they traded him who would start? Chase Wright? Sam Narron? Marty McLeary? Chuck Lofgren? That would put even more stress on the bullpen, and we don't need to overwork Braddock, Axford, and Loe and risk blowing their arms out on a lost season. Bush has value being kept. And I did reference last year prior to him getting hurt on the arm, so the sample size is bigger than 122 innings. You can expand it to 2008 and outside of a half-dozen or so starts after he got hit on the arm last year he has had a pretty good 3-year stretch. I don't think you are appreciating how good his 3-year stretch has been.

 

There really is no reason to pay a premium for what is available for shrewd waiver claim (whatever happened to Estrada anyway?)

 

Oh, there is definitely a premium to pay over Estrada - small sample, but a pretty awful one. (And then the stunt he pulled after being told he was being sent down - is that someone who is good for team chemistry?) Take a look at what the Brewers AAAA-level replacement starters have done over the last few years - Estrada, Mike Burns... yeah, there's a premium to be paid over that.

 

If you read the post closely you would have recognized that twice I said that the top priority was to find a #2-level starter - this is in the event that they are not able acquire one in a reasonable deal. For those of you who think they should acquire two good starters... how do you think they are going to do that? Who are they going to trade? Look at the Power 50 - four of the top 7 are now in the majors. Don't you think other teams have scouted Gamel and realize he is a defensive liability at 3B and might have to switch positions? If they trade Fielder they have to keep Gamel because they don't have any other LH hitters. I could see parting with Lawrie, but only if they sign Weeks to an extension. Would you trade Odorizzi, Peralta, or Heckathorn for someone who is closer to the majors? Rivas could be ready by the middle of next year, and could even make the jump - he could be up to 175 innings next year since he did 133 in 2008 - do you trade him? What other value do they have to trade that would bring value back?

 

What the Brewers need to stay away from are the deals like they gave to Suppan and Wolf, or to relievers like Riske and Gagne. If you look at Bush's body of evidence over the last three years, save for about a half-dozen starts after he got hit on the arm, you might be surprised at how good it has been. What's not working isn't Bush - it's Suppan, Davis, Hoffman, Riske, Hawkins, Estrada, Vargas, Villanueva, to an extent Wolf, and flip-flopping Parra and Narveson back and forth from the pen. Bush is among the least of their problems.

 

You mean like Brandon Morrow? He was dealt last offseason for Brandon League.

 

And a 21-year-old Venezuelan who is putting up a .955 OPS in high-A ball this year. Do the Brewers have anyone outside of Lawrie at any level of the minors putting up the equivalent of that production? Gamel and Cain are doing it at a higher level but are both 24, and Katin is 27 - those are the only others who are close.

[trwi7]

Do we have anyone who gets to play half their games in High Desert anymore?

[Never Outhustled]

You mean like Brandon Morrow? He was dealt last offseason for Brandon League.

 

And a 21-year-old Venezuelan who is putting up a .955 OPS in high-A ball this year. Do the Brewers have anyone outside of Lawrie at any level of the minors putting up the equivalent of that production? Gamel and Cain are doing it at a higher level but are both 24, and Katin is 27 - those are the only others who are close.

Like Tri7 already pointed out, High Desert stats are a joke. Do you forget Jason Belcher and Dave Clark? Chavez was a throw in. Our equivilent is Caleb Gindl. I'd gladly throw in Gindl to get a young starter who is more WAR than 4/5s of our rotation combined.

[JohnBriggs12]

take a look at what Brewers replacement level starters have done over the past few years-Estrada, Mike Burns etc

 

Okay, lets look. The Brewers were 4-4 in Mike Burns' 8 starts in 2009. If we play the "Dave Bush" game of throwing out his 2 worst starts (which by comparison to Bush's implosions aren't all that bad and in fact they won one of those), Burns had an ERA of 4.09. Now Burns did only have 2 "quality starts" out of 8 (he missed one more by one out), but I do think the bashing of Mike Burns is way overblown.

 

As for Estrada, he only made one start. He did piggyback Parra very effectively in his first appearance. The only "stunt" I'm aware of was the one by Macha to use him on two consecutive days after he threw 52 pitches the day before. I have a hard time blaming a marginal major league pitcher for complaining of arm fatigue only after being told he was being sent down.

 

As for who would replace Bush? Loe has been a starter most of his career. There's absolutely no reason he couldn't give you results similar to Bush if they reverted him back to a starter. Yes, he's been very valuable in the pen, but bullpen arms are much more readily available and they may have several in their own system. If you're worried, his credentials far surpassed Burns' too. Loe was had for next to nothing as minor league FA. But it doesn't have to be Loe either. There is probably another guy out there who's next year's Kameron Loe. That's what I meant by shrewd waiver claim. It doesn't necessarily have to be a waiver claim it can be a minor league contract given to someone. Let's not forget that the year prior, they picked up Narveson.

 

There's no reason to pay significant dollars to a 5th starter type.

[SenatorShriv]

If Bush leaves via free agency would we get a draft pick in return?

[TooLiveBrew]

Only if he qualified as a Type A or B free agent, declined an offer of salary arbitration, and then signed with another team.

[SenatorShriv]

I guess I was asking if he will qualify as a type A or type B player?

[RobertR]

I don't mind if Bush walks, but he's been solidly above replacement level and durable other than the freak incident of getting hit by a ball while pitching. Considering the Brewers really only have 3 starting pitchers that have been above replacement level, he's been someone that's been more of a help than a hurt.

 

Gallardo, Wolf, ???, ???, and Parra/Narveson isn't promising for 2011. Now, I don't think the Brewers have to sign Bush, after all what Bush did when healthy in 2008 to 2010 isn't necessarily the same as what can be expected from 2011 and forward. But, if he's willing to sign a reasonable deal, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with him coming back next year either.

 

Robert

[reillymcshane]

What is Bush worth on the open market?

 

I'll offer up Jon Garland and Doug Davis - who each just got over $5 million on a one year deal. Another comparable is Braden Looper - and he didn't sign. I don't think anyone was offering him much, but I don't recall if there was anything firm offered to him. Jarrad Washburn might even work as a comparable (I believe he was offered a 1-year $5 million contract by the Twins).

 

Bush is younger than most of these guys by 3-4 years, but he's pitched worse than all of them.

 

I'd say that Garland is the best comparable - they are the same age - and Garland has better numbers and has been more durable and more consistent than Bush.

 

So if Garland can only get $5.3 million this year, my guess is that Bush will be lucky to get a $3-4 million offer. Maybe someone will see something differently, but Bush's numbers, coupled with pay trends of similar players, simply don't add up to more than that.

 

The Crew should non-tender Bush, and unless he's taking a reasonable one or two year deal, cut ties.

[Ennder]

after all what Bush did when healthy in 2008 to 2010 isn't necessarily the same as what can be expected from 2011 and forward

 

My issue with Bush is the pretty clear downward trend in his peripherals.

 

xFIP has gone - 3.76, 4.36, 4.67, 4.79, 4.98. He has gotten worse 4 years in a row now. His K/9 has slipped under 6 and he is walking more than 3 per 9 now and his ground ball rates have gone down. This is not the type of pitcher you want to sign at all, you are just hoping he has some luck with ERA each year. Back in 2006/2007 I thought he could be a pretty effective #3 but all of his peripherals have taken a dive since then and now he is lucky to be a #4.

[kramnoj]

Bush will not qualify as an A or B FA.

[reillymcshane]

Bush will not qualify as an A or B FA.

kramnoj is correct on this one. At this time, he's not either a A or B free agent. Here's info on the latest rankings.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/elias-rankings-update-1.html

[LouisEly]

Like Tri7 already pointed out, High Desert stats are a joke. Do you forget Jason Belcher and Dave Clark? Chavez was a throw in. Our equivilent is Caleb Gindl. I'd gladly throw in Gindl to get a young starter who is more WAR than 4/5s of our rotation combined.

I do remember Jason Belcher. He had a .816 OPS in High Desert with only 5 HRs. Can you provide me a link to said Dave Clark? There is only one Dave Clark with minors stats on baseball-reference.com and three "David Clark"s, and none of them played for the Brewers. If you are referring to Daryl Clark, he had an OPS over 1.000 at High Desert but that was only for 50 games as a 23-year-old; his only full season there as a 22-year-old he had a .829 OPS. And IIRC the Brewers played in High Desert before PED testing.

 

So not good comparisons to a 21-year-old with a .955 OPS and 27 HRs there now during the period of PED testing. Bill Hall as a 21-year-old had a .876 OPS in High Desert with 15 HRs. Your best comparator might be Corey Hart, who had a .928 OPS with 22 HRs there as a 20-year-old. Otherwise I can't find any Brewers prospects who had >.900 OPS with at least 350 PAs in a season there under the age of 25. So methinks you are undervalueing this prospect.

[MNBrew]

Tonight was further evidence that Dave Bush just isn't what the Brewers need any longer. It's not a perfect parallel at all, but he's kinda turning into the pitching version of Bill Hall:

 

- always some legit promise and a number of decent stats, but

- also several scary stats & trends...

 

...but most of all...

 

At the end of the day, he doesn't do enough to help the team win enough of the time -- no matter what the other numbers say.

 

In Bill Hall's early days in the bigs, I often contended that everything about him indicated that he wasn't the sort of player who you typically see on a contender -- he's just not a winner. As time goes by, and especially since his injury in FL last year, I feel more & more that way about Dave Bush. And for that reason, I'd be disappointed if the best the Brewers can do this offseason includes bringing him back.

[Roscoe Chill]

At the end of the day, he doesn't do enough to help the team win enough of the time -- no matter what the other numbers say.

 

Exactly. And the same goes for the other pitchers I keep seeing people STILL include in next year's rotation. As my buddy said last night, if two of Bush, Narveson, and Parra are in the rotation next year, he will not spend dollar 1 at Miller Park next year.

[Funketown]

MNBrew wrote:

In Bill Hall's early days in the bigs, I often contended that everything about him indicated that he wasn't the sort of player who you typically see on a contender -- he's just not a winner. As time goes by, and especially since his injury in FL last year, I feel more & more that way about Dave Bush. And for that reason, I'd be disappointed if the best the Brewers can do this offseason includes bringing him back.

Good players help their teams win games, bad players don't. This whole "he's not a winner" argument has been made about so many players that it's laughable. Last year A-rod wasn't a winner. Now he's got that clutch instinct.

 

Bill Hall is one player. There are 25 players on a roster. If you put Bill Hall on the Yankees, they will still be dominant. If you put him on the Royals, they will still suck.

 

As for Bush, it's not that he doesn't have some killer instinct for winning, or that he isn't a grinder, or that he can't pitch on a winning team. He just isn't very good anymore.

 

 

[HiAndTight]

Agreed. Look at Bill Hall this year. Putting up a pretty nice year for a utility player in the American League.

 

.800 OPS, 15 HR's and he's played all over the place for that team this year. I don't understand what about him suggested he wasn't a "winner"? This of course is early in his career when you say you initially felt this way.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Now that he's on the Red Sox, does Billy Hall have the winner quality that he didn't have in Milwaukee?