Dave Bush Reality Check

[LouisEly]

With 70% of the season done and 122 IP, what we have in Dave Bush is a guy without great peripherals but just gets the job done. Among NL pitchers with at least 100 innings, Bush is 20th in the NL in Quality Start %. When he get hit he gets shelled, but almost 2/3rds of the time he gives you a QS. If you look at 2009 before he got hit on the arm he was pitching very similarly if not better.

 

Ideally the Brewers would like to get a pitcher with a higher upside. Realistically... what would it cost them via prospects to trade for that, and how much would they have to pay that pitcher? There isn't the quality in free agency, and we know what free agent pitching costs - look at how much they are paying for Wolf. A not-too-different pitcher in Piniero signed a 2yr/$16M deal with the Angels last year.

 

Reality check - no one is giving up cost-controlled high upside ML starting pitching. So the options are to trade prospects for a better starter AND pay the subsequent salary of that type of starter ... but if it costs you a couple of good prospects and $12M/year in salary would bringing back Dave Bush be so bad? The Brewers have a good enough offense that if they get a QS from their pitcher they should win most of those games. If they can't get a reasonable deal for a #2 starter, which I agree is priority #1, but they can bring Bush back for a reasonable salary - say, 2-year/$12M deal ($6M/year) - would you do that?

 

I know what some are going to say. Lack of Ks, WHIP, etc.; but what you need out of your starting pitcher is a quality start. As a golf pro once told me, "You don't draw pictures on the scorecard." The bottom line is the result, regardless of how pretty it is. Bush is keeping the Brewers in the games that he pitches better than a majority of pitchers in the NL.

 

 

(edit: made specific topic title more specific --1992)

[Invader3K]

If it was something like a 2 year/$12 million total deal like you're suggesting, yes, I'd probably do it. Bush isn't an exciting pitcher, but he generally gets the job done. If he was demanding a third year or significantly more money than that, I'd say, "Thanks for your time here and good luck, Dave."

 

Davis will probably be gone next year, so essentially slotting in Bush as his replacement as the veteran "reliable guy" at the bottom of the rotation wouldn't be horrible.

[rluzinski]

I don't think you are appreciating how weak evidence is when it's based on the the results of 122 IP. I think the fact that there was little or no interest in him at the trade line is strong evidence that other teams understand that.

[dlk9s]

I have zero problem having Bush as a number 4/5 starter. Obviously, the lower in the rotation the better, as that likely means we have other guys who are better, but I think he's a perfectly decent back-end starter. This season has also been odd when it comes to walks (I'm not looking at the stats now, but I believe he historically doesn't walk many batters), so maybe it's a fluky thing this year.

 

Unless we see all our young guys come up in the next few years and kick butt, we're just not going to have five starting pitchers who are all 1's and 2's. There are always going to be one or two "lesser" pitchers in the rotation, just like not every position player in the starting lineup is going to go for 25 HR and a .300 BA. No, I wouldn't want Bush as my 1 or 2, but at a reasonable price, I'm fine with bringing him back.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd take Bush over Parra but that's not saying much. For all the "quality starts" the Brewers are just 9-14 when he starts. In only one of his 5 seasons as a Brewer were the Brewers over .500 when he started and that was when they were 15-14 in 2008. A lot of his quality starts just barely qualified and still resulted in losses. He gives the team zero chance to win when he has one of his awful starts which is about once a month.

 

He'd be worth a contract as a 4-5 starter for teams lacking a minimum salary option that could match those numbers, but not more than one year with an option and certainly not for more than $5 million. There's usually a glut of guys like that on the market.

[MNBrew]

The difference between the Brewers of 2010 vs. the building Brewers of 4-5 years ago is that whereas Dave Bush used to be rather assured of a spot in the rotation, now that's not so much the case. Bush had to earn his spot in the rotation this year in ST. I'd figure in 2011 that would be no different.

 

Much as it's counter to many folks' recent assertions about Melvin's intelligence, the Brewers ARE smarter enough now not to be fooled by certain stats. As evidence, last year, Braden Looper leads the team w/ 14 wins. Do the Brewers bring him back? Heck no! He gets bought out and isn't even in the majors WITH ANYONE in 2010.

 

I wouldn't be totally surprised if Bush is still wearing a Brewers uniform in 2011. But what Dave Bush hasn't shown much of over most of his Milwaukee tenure is substantial improvement -- and maybe not even much at all, really. Given that, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he's not back, either.

 

One thought did cross my mind in reading this thread, though: When the Brewers are considering proposals to trade Prince this winter, I wonder if adding Bush into a deal would help solidify that much more the return they'd get on their elite slugger. . . . You've gotta figure that for many teams, as LouisEly deftly points out, having Dave Bush in their rotation would represent an appreciable upgrade.

[kramnoj]

Bush is a free agent after this year. Melvin was willing to trade him before the deadline, and mentioned QS, but didn't have any takers.

 

The Brewers will have money to retain Bush for one more year, and I don't know that they have anyone that projects to be much better than him to start the season. I don't know that I'd offer him more than one year, but a year for $6M or so wouldn't be horrible.

[Never Outhustled]

We can't find what we're looking for if we settle for what we already have.

[Boy Jeenius]

Sure he could be a nice 5 for the Brewers next year. So could 40 other guys including Davis and Narveson. How many 5's do they need? Is he a 5 on a potential championship team? Nope. Not to say the Brewers are destined to be champs, but for me, I'd pass.

[Tbadder]

I'd agree. Time for Bush to move on. I can't imagine a turn around. That there were no takers is not surprising and probably indicative of his real value.

[logan82]

Depends how much Bush wants and what we get back in trade this offseason. I don't want Bush for $6m a year. However, we do have a gap year next year before most of our MiLB pitching will be ready. We have Parra, Gallardo, Wolf and possibly Capuano next year. That leaves quite a few SP spots to fill(need about 7 SP for the year) since I believe Parra and Capuano to be question marks.

[Never Outhustled]

Reality check - no one is giving up cost-controlled high upside ML starting pitching.

You mean like Brandon Morrow? He was dealt last offseason for Brandon League.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Time to say goodbye to Bush. I'm done with his ups and downs, and hopefully so are the Brewers. But truthfully, if we get another starter in any manner, he's the odd-man out.

[Ennder]

I wouldn't bring him back. His skills are slipping and he didn't have a great skillset to begin with. ERA is utterly useless over 120 IP and quality starts are a sham, I'll go with his peripherals which are worse than his career norms on the year.

[AJOHNSON104]

I liked Bush when he looked like he'd keep getting better. He is what we thought he was. I'd like to keep him if the price was right, but I'd be a little hesistant to pay him anything more that $4-4.5 million per year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Dave Bush is the perfect example of a pitcher the Brewers need to get as far away from as possible - Just another arm that could be a decent #5 for a good team, but he's reached free agency and will cost much more than what a younger pitcher with more upside would. Doug Davis also fits that mold.

 

I think the Brewers need to wish Bush well and move on.

[Invader3K]

You mean like Brandon Morrow? He was dealt last offseason for Brandon League.

Well, given how little interest there seemed to be in Fielder in July (our only realistic trade chip this off-season), I'm not optimistic Melvin is going to be able to get anyone comparable to Morrow.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ennder]I wouldn't bring him back. His skills are slipping and he didn't have a great skillset to begin with. ERA is utterly useless over 120 IP and quality starts are a sham, I'll go with his peripherals which are worse than his career norms on the year.

I agree. The Brewers are paying Narveson $406,500 and the team has won half of his 18 starts. There really is no reason to pay a premium for what is available for shrewd waiver claim (whatever happened to Estrada anyway?), or a minor deal could net you. Every year there are arms available that are capable of doing what Bush is for minimal investments.

[Invader3K]

Gallardo, Wolf, "Pitcher X", Parra, Narveson.

 

A lot depends on who can be picked up in the off-season, if we aren't going to retain Bush.

[jackalope02ca]

If you retain Bush over Davis you have to add the million dollar buyout figure to things realistically. Unless Bush is willing to stick around at less than 4 million I'd as soon go with Davis. I think Davis would have had better numbers had he not been hurt all year. I don't think even when he pitched he was feeling normal. I'm also hoping that somehow we find a way to make Narveson or Parra disappear, at least as starters.

[Beast Light]

I would like to echo the thoughts of those who want to move on. At some point, people need to realize that what we have is not working.

 

Bush, Parra and Narveson are all pitchers that any team interested in winning should be looking to upgrade. People can make the case that they are fine as back of the rotation types. The bottom line, however, is that this starting pitching staff is horrible and at least 2 of the aforementioned need to be replaced.

 

Finally, I would prefer to see the 5th spot in the rotation used to break youngsters into the league and not wasted on 30+ year old pitchers with zero upside and veteran salaries.

[FVBrewerFan]

Gallardo, Wolf, "Pitcher X", Parra, Narveson.

 

A lot depends on who can be picked up in the off-season, if we aren't going to retain Bush.

If that's the 2011 rotation, I'm cancelling my season tickets now- unless "pitcher x" is Cy Young.

 

[wishicouldhit]

Invader3K[/b]]Gallardo, Wolf, "Pitcher X", Parra, Narveson.

 

A lot depends on who can be picked up in the off-season, if we aren't going to retain Bush.

I cant handle both Parra and Narveson in the same rotation. Let Parra, Narveson, Rivas, and Butler fight for the 5th spot. For the Brewers to be competitive they need to bring in 2 pitcher as upgrades. Hopefully Fielder can be exchanged for one and sign a guy like Vazquez as a stop gap until Rivas, Scarpetta, Peralta, Heckathorn, Odorizzi are ready to produce.

[MessiahRp]

Invader3K[/b]]Gallardo, Wolf, "Pitcher X", Parra, Narveson.

 

A lot depends on who can be picked up in the off-season, if we aren't going to retain Bush.

I cant handle both Parra and Narveson in the same rotation. Let Parra, Narveson, Rivas, and Butler fight for the 5th spot. For the Brewers to be competitive they need to bring in 2 pitcher as upgrades. Hopefully Fielder can be exchanged for one and sign a guy like Vazquez as a stop gap until Rivas, Scarpetta, Peralta, Heckathorn, Odorizzi are ready to produce.

"Dead arm" Vazquez? No thanks.

 

I'm sort of interested to know, out of those QS, how many did Bush win and for the ones he lost, what was the run support/average runs allowed for them?

 

 

[logan82]

MessiahRp24 wrote:

I'm sort of interested to know, out of those QS, how many did Bush win and for the ones he lost, what was the run support/average runs allowed for them?

Doesn't really matter. Those things are mostly out of his control.