Is the Wild Card out of the question?

[craigharmann]

OK, I was a doom and gloomer about 10 days ago, but it seems like the team is starting to put it together. Between now and the end of the year, they've got 9 games against the Reds and I believe 5 or 8 games against the Cardinals. They've got some tough competition, but they're currently 10 games out of the wild card. Granted, it's a huge hole to dig out of, but do you think it can be done?

[logan82]

Yes, completely out of the question.

[craigharmann]

Yes, completely out of the question.

Based on?

[logan82]

Our crappy record and .500 record over our "good" stretch.

[Invader3K]

They're not mathematically eliminated, but it's just really, really unlikely. It's not even so much that they're 10 games out. It's the fact that there are seven teams ahead of the Brewers in the race for the Wild Card.

[jeffy]

I would think they have a better chance of winning the division than the do of winning the wild card, because they have to pass "only" two teams to do that.

 

Yep...5.5% chance of winning the division and 2.2% chance of wild card.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...m/statistics/ps_odds.php

[Baldkin]

I would think they have a better chance of winning the division than the do of winning the wild card, because they have to pass "only" two teams to do that.

 

Yep...5.5% chance of winning the division and 2.2% chance of wild card.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...m/statistics/ps_odds.php

You're misreading that. That is a 0.055 percent chance at the division. As in, 5.5 times in 10,000 not 5.5 in 100. They are out of it.

 

As for why they are out of it? They'd have to win at least 90 to win the WC or the division, most likely.

 

They are 52-59 with 51 games remaining. They'd have to go 38-13 to get to 90 wins. That's .745 winning percentage, or 120 wins over a full season. That just doesn't happen.

[jeffy]

Thanks for the correction.

 

Not much chance of either, but the odds of the division are still about 2.5 times greater than the wild card.

[pitchleague]

and yet, the Rockies did something that amazing just 3 years ago.

 

Believe me, I am pretty darn sure the Brewers are not going to come remotely close to anything except being able to finish .500 or better, but it COULD happen. I mean, nobody (not even the Rockies) thought it could happen in '07. They just happened to get uber hot and the other teams hit snag after snag after snag.

 

I would agree with the 0.055 percent chance, though. It's not a bet I'd take to Vegas.

[Invader3K]

and yet, the Rockies did something that amazing just 3 years ago.

 

Believe me, I am pretty darn sure the Brewers are not going to come remotely close to anything except being able to finish .500 or better, but it COULD happen. I mean, nobody (not even the Rockies) thought it could happen in '07. They just happened to get uber hot and the other teams hit snag after snag after snag.

 

I would agree with the 0.055 percent chance, though. It's not a bet I'd take to Vegas.

Not to pick on you pitchleague, but how often does a comeback like the Rockies had actually happen? I mean, they won 20 games in a row at the end of the season. That just does not happen more than once every few decades, I would guess.

[trwi7]

They have to pass seven teams including three that are at least 9 games ahead of them. That's why it's out of the question. Maybe if they get to 5 back with two or three teams ahead of them heading into September you could bring it up, but it still would be incredibly unlikely.

[craigharmann]

Thanks all for snapping me back to reality.

[GAME05]

Thanks all for snapping me back to reality.

i liked the optimism better, despite the odds. it's refreshing.

[Funketown]

I would think they have a better chance of winning the division than the do of winning the wild card, because they have to pass "only" two teams to do that.

 

Yep...5.5% chance of winning the division and 2.2% chance of wild card.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...m/statistics/ps_odds.php

You're misreading that. That is a 0.055 percent chance at the division. As in, 5.5 times in 10,000 not 5.5 in 100.

So you're saying there's a chance!

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0JjK2c-5-N0/Sx_jiEha7mI/AAAAAAAAD3I/yw1FQU16BjU/s320/a_chance.jpeg

[MJLiverock]

The Brewers have a bad record in probably the worst division in baseball. This is just not a good team. A few wins vs a horrible Astros team doesn't change it and will likely be offset by some losses to another bad team.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would think they have a better chance of winning the division than the do of winning the wild card, because they have to pass "only" two teams to do that.

 

Yep...5.5% chance of winning the division and 2.2% chance of wild card.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...m/statistics/ps_odds.php

You're misreading that. That is a 0.055 percent chance at the division. As in, 5.5 times in 10,000 not 5.5 in 100. They are out of it.

 

As for why they are out of it? They'd have to win at least 90 to win the WC or the division, most likely.

 

They are 52-59 with 51 games remaining. They'd have to go 38-13 to get to 90 wins. That's .745 winning percentage, or 120 wins over a full season. That just doesn't happen.

 

The White Sox were 38-13 between June 9th and last Thursday. They certainly aren't a super team, but they don't have a Manny Parra in their rotation either.

[MNBrew]

The odds certainly are stacked against them -- hugely, to say the least. However, to use the overused cliche, the game's not played on paper. If they get on a serious roll (careful not to hurt yourselves laughing at that one), you never know what can happen.

 

A week ago, they were 10 under .500. Now they're back to 6 under. Next up is Arizona. Taking 3 out of 4 from them is possible, maybe even a sweep, if the Brewers play as well as they're capable of playing. . . . Sure, it might not happen. But it might. They're in a stretch of a lot of games against non-dominant teams. If they can make serious hay, they may just have a chance, however slim.

[sbrylski]

Here are the top comebacks of all time: http://www.coolstandings.com/comebacks.asp?i=1&sn=2010

 

At 0.1% odds of making the postseason (rounding up), only one team in baseball history made a comeback with worse chances - the 1914 Boston Braves. There are a couple recent teams with under 1% odds that ended up making the postseason, but don't get your hopes up.

[TooLiveBrew]

A week ago, they were 10 under .500. Now they're back to 6 under. Next up is Arizona. Taking 3 out of 4 from them is possible, maybe even a sweep, if the Brewers play as well as they're capable of playing. . . . Sure, it might not happen. But it might. They're in a stretch of a lot of games against non-dominant teams.

 

I think the alternating sweeps by the Astros and now the Brewers is a good microcosm for this season. The team is capable of being a dominant force offensively, but lacks the pitching necessary to truly contend.

[pitchleague]

and yet, the Rockies did something that amazing just 3 years ago.

 

Believe me, I am pretty darn sure the Brewers are not going to come remotely close to anything except being able to finish .500 or better, but it COULD happen. I mean, nobody (not even the Rockies) thought it could happen in '07. They just happened to get uber hot and the other teams hit snag after snag after snag.

 

I would agree with the 0.055 percent chance, though. It's not a bet I'd take to Vegas.

Not to pick on you pitchleague, but how often does a comeback like the Rockies had actually happen? I mean, they won 20 games in a row at the end of the season. That just does not happen more than once every few decades, I would guess.

I kind of thought my final sentence summed up that I had no faith in that happening, as I think we all know how rare an occurrence that was. I guess I thought wrong.

[DHonks]

the team needs to get very hot. We're talking "the Rockies in September a few years back" or "Oakland winning 20 straight" kind of hot. If we only lose 3 or 4 more games this month, yes, we could win the division or the wildcard

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, not happening. There's no way our pitching will ever be consistent enough to go on a big enough winning streak to even get close.