I want Paul DePodesta to be the New GM of the Brewers

[Baldkin]

Alright, Thunder, here is what I want to know: What are your expectations for a team who is a distant 4th in payroll in it's own division (and closer to being 5th than to being 3rd)?

[Thundercat32]

Alright, Thunder, here is what I want to know: What are your expectations for a team who is a distant 4th in payroll in it's own division (and closer to being 5th than to being 3rd)?

According to Cot's baseball contracts this just isn't true. The Brewers are in 4th, but not a distant 4th. In fact, they're much closer to 3rd than 5th and also less than $4 mil from 2nd.

Cubs $144.3 mil

Cards $94.2 mil

Astros $92.6 mil

Brewers $90.4 mil

Reds $76.1 mil

Pirates $39 mil

 

regardless, my expectations for Melvin is to make optimal decisions and steer this organization in the right direction. I think he's underachieved making decisions, and this organization is going in the exact opposite direction signing so-so veterans to "get by" instead of making a committment to young talent. Disbanding the DR academy is a clear sign of what I'm talking about.

[Never Outhustled]

 

Jack Z drafted well, but he did not draft pitching well. When you only have ONE quality major league starter in drafts from 2000 to 2005

Z didn't land pitching because he rarely drafted it, the best players available when he selected were hitters. In the 6 years from 2000-2005, Z only 9 picks in the 1st 2 rounds, and only used 3 of them on pitchers. They were Jones, Rogers, and Gallardo. Rogers still could be an outstanding pitcher. Of the 7 hitters, 6 made it to the majors, 5 are starters, and 4 had outstanding seasons as Brewers. Compare that to the success rate of other teams (only about %50 of 1st rounders make the majors, and its worse for 2nd rounders) and you quickly realize why Z is now a GM.

[jjfanec]

Jack Z drafted well, but he did not draft pitching well. When you only have ONE quality major league starter in drafts from 2000 to 2005

Z didn't land pitching because he rarely drafted it, the best players available when he selected were hitters. In the 6 years from 2000-2005, Z only 9 picks in the 1st 2 rounds, and only used 3 of them on pitchers. They were Jones, Rogers, and Gallardo. Rogers still could be an outstanding pitcher. Of the 7 hitters, 6 made it to the majors, 5 are starters, and 4 had outstanding seasons as Brewers. Compare that to the success rate of other teams (only about %50 of 1st rounders make the majors, and its worse for 2nd rounders) and you quickly realize why Z is now a GM.

There are rounds other than round one in the draft. That is where Gallardo was picked and according to people on this board he was not a Jack pick but a Melvin pick. I do not see any way to defend Jack Z's drafting of pitchers. It simply has not been very good. I have said all along that he is awesome at drafting bats, but his pitching leaves something to be desired. He was drafting bats in the top 10 picks so I would hope he had a decent success rate. But he did go above expectations with those picks. I have thought some on this board over-valued Jack Z, (and I really liked the guy) and I still believe it to be true.

[Thundercat32]

Baldkin,

 

To pick up on our conversation from In Game chat, you left before I could explain where I was going with that. Ok so Wendy Selig got her panties in a bunch and demanded costs were cut and the mlb team was improved so it could be sold. So Melvin had to close the DR academy. My only problem absolving him of that is Attanasio bought the team in Sept '04. Melvin didn't re-establish the academy until 2009. How does it take you 5 years to realize that mistake?

[TooLiveBrew]

Paul DePodesta is being played by Jonah Hill in the Moneyball movie. Maybe we can hire Hill.

http://images.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/_photos/2004-03-17-depodesta-inside.jpg

 

http://www.cinemablend.com/images/news_img/11981/11981.jpg

 

I totally see it.

[PeaveyFury]

Philip Seymour Hoffman is playing Art Howe? Is this movie a comedy?

[colbyjack]

There are rounds other than round one in the draft. That is where Gallardo was picked and according to people on this board he was not a Jack pick but a Melvin pick.

 

Gallardo was a 2nd round pick.

 

Without pasting the comment, I think from X, if I remember correctly, and this is usually true for most organizations, but Jack Z didn't oversee the Latin American scouting for the Brewers. That is a separate scouting operation from the domestic/amateur ones. There were stories of him going to see some of the players first-hand to provide his own opinion, but the same was true of Dick Groch.

 

Ok so Wendy Selig got her panties in a bunch and demanded costs were cut and the mlb team was improved so it could be sold. So Melvin had to close the DR academy. My only problem absolving him of that is Attanasio bought the team in Sept '04. Melvin didn't re-establish the academy until 2009. How does it take you 5 years to realize that mistake?

 

Again, IIRC, that's not how it went down. The Brewers re-evaluated their Latin American approach and decided to shut-down their DR academy when they recognized it wasn't doing much. They decided to take the money from the DR academy and put it into some more prominent signings (such as Rolando Pascual and Wily Peralta), enticing such prospects by sending a few of them directly to Arizona, since they had no academy to bridge the gap. In the meantime they increased their presence in Canada.

 

And I wouldn't diminish the fact that Jack Z as scouting director procured much of the team's current lineup. Without Jack, the team doesn't have Prince, Braun and Hart. Taking Fielder and Braun where he did took some courage since most didn't consider them that good of prospects, and as much flack as he gets for not procuring pitchers (much of which is deserved) he did provide the team with 2 of their current 5 starters (regardless of what you think of Parra), Zach Braddock and many of the pieces that allowed Melvin to acquire players such as CC Sabathia, if by reputation only.

 

I am frustrated with Melvin in that he hasn't been able to take his teams to the next level historically. I don't know what to think of his future, but at the same time, I'm not sure what to think of Paul DePodesta. As someone else mentioned, he, like Melvin, has been fired before, and I think I would prefer to find the younger diamond in the rough (or Terry Ryan as suggested) to help get the Brewers over the hump.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am frustrated with Melvin in that he hasn't been able to take his teams to the next level historically.

 

I think almost all of us can agree on this. However, how many GMs have been able to take their teams (esp. mid-/smaller markets) to the 'next level'? It's just not an easy thing to do, and I definitely understand the organization's goal should not be mediocrity.

 

I tend to waver back and forth as to whether or not I think Melvin is the guy the Brewers should keep for the long-term. I also think many posters here (myself included at times) take for granted -- almost to a ridiculous extent -- just how hard it is to build a consistent contender out of a mid-market team. I may be in the minority, but I think Melvin "gets" how to do that much more so now than he did previously with the organization. At this point, I think I'd like to see what the team's more recently-acquired arms (guys like Odorizzi, Peralta, Heckathorn, Rivas, Jeffress, etc.) can do before I'm ready to drop the hammer on Melvin. Additionally, he's not getting fired anytime soon if Mark A's comments are to be believed, so in that case I want to see what Melvin can find for Fielder.

[logan82]

However, how many GMs have been able to take their teams (esp. mid-/smaller markets) to the 'next level'?

 

Sort of a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts maybe. Guys don't hold onto their jobs long enough to get to the next level in many cases.

 

At this point, I think I'd like to see what the team's more recently-acquired arms (guys like Odorizzi, Peralta, Heckathorn, Rivas, Jeffress, etc.) can do before I'm ready to drop the hammer on Melvin.

 

That's where I am. I don't hate or even dislike Melvin. I think we will need about 2 more years to really get a good feel of how the minor league pitching is doing. At least one of those guys should reach the majors and most will be in AA or higher and we will have a pretty good idea where they sit.

[Team Canada]

Hopefully if Melvin's learned at least one lesson by now, it's that he should stop blowing money on the bullpen and give the kids a chance.

[Thundercat32]

TooLiveBrew wrote: Additionally, he's not getting fired anytime soon if Mark A's comments are to be believed, so in that case I want to see what Melvin can find for Fielder.

Attanasio was just quoted in the JS yesterday http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/100200869.html saying after the season "We are going to be back to the drawing board and figure it out". That doesn't imply anything in regards to Melvin, but you have to remember to keep things in context any time a player, a coach, gm, or an owner say anything to the media. And that context is what'd you think they were going to say? Like Attanasio isn't going to come right out and rip his GM and start a needless controversy. I find that statement along with several others in the article to be a clear sign Attanasio isn't pleased with where things are and I think he might be starting to question "where are things going?".

The best thing to come out of the article tho is the we worked harder at this trade deadline than we have in the last couple of years. Thats good to hear, I can live with not getting a deal done, but not due to lack of effort. Then again, you have to filter it with the, what'd you expect the owner to say, we sat on our duffs and let the phone ring? Still I think he was being genuine when he said it.

[Thundercat32]

colbyjack,

 

I don't want to be redundant so I won't go into detail, but I just disagree with the DR academy. I'm curious about Rolando Pascual and Wily Peralta, baseball reference has them both appearing in their first games for the Brewers Arizona Fall league team in 2006. The academy was shut down in 2003. You stated the money saved was used to sign these prominent players. I'm wondering why the delay or if I'm missing something else?

[Ennder]

Z didn't land pitching because he rarely drafted it, the best players available when he selected were hitters. In the 6 years from 2000-2005, Z only 9 picks in the 1st 2 rounds, and only used 3 of them on pitchers

 

It is also important to note that the Brewers needed to replace every single position on the team via the draft pretty much. This isn't the case of a team that can target certain positions because they were obvious needs, every single position was an obvoius need. I completely understand why the Brewers focused on hitting, it is more reliable in the draft and we needed reliability. What really bothers me with these years of drafting is the total disregard for defense. You can put a team full of sluggers on the field with mediocre pitching and find success as long as the defense isn't bad as well.

[benji]

I understand Ennder's point about defense, but guys like Weeks, Fielder, and Braun were picked in the draft when they were suppose to be. I don't think (I am not a draft expert by any means) the Brewers reached for any of these players. Hart was moved from 1st base. I guess my point is what player could they have drafted to make the defense better? Tulowitski instead of Braun is the only one I can think of right now, but with Tulo's injury history I don't know if that would have been a better pick. They also had Hardy in the mix during that draft.

[colbyjack]

I don't want to be redundant so I won't go into detail, but I just disagree with the DR academy. I'm curious about Rolando Pascual and Wily Peralta, baseball reference has them both appearing in their first games for the Brewers Arizona Fall league team in 2006. The academy was shut down in 2003. You stated the money saved was used to sign these prominent players. I'm wondering why the delay or if I'm missing something else?

 

With all due respect, it seems as though your background with the Brewers' recent presence in Latin America is a little misguided. Here is one of your previous comments:

 

You HAVE TO scout Latin America to be a successful organization in baseball these days. If the academy is lousy you make it better. Disbanding it is a self imposed death sentence, and among Doug "Get By" Melvin's many sins this is by far the most egregious.

 

It's not like they just dropped scouting in Latin America completely, and since they closed the academy they have signed and are currently developing talented young players such as Alcides Escobar, Wily Peralta and Amaury Rivas. That's a solid trio of Latin American talent. Sure, I'd like them to have more, but I'd like them to have more of just about everything. They also have had a few high profile/big money Latin American signees fail, or at least seemingly plateau, such as Pascual and Hitaniel Arias.

 

As I noted before, they stopped their training in the Dominican and Venezuela and decided to go with more quality and less quantity. Instead of filling out rosters for a Dominican and/or Venezuelan team, they decided to take the money that was used to run those camps, and sign all of those players, and try to get more competitive signing some of the more sought-after Latin American free agents. Then, these players reported directly to the Arizona rookie club. Also as noted, the additional resources went into hiring more Canadian area scouts, and area they obviously felt was somewhat untapped relative to other teams' focus.

 

And the idea is somewhat related to Moneyball. The overlying premise in Moneyball is to make the best of an under appreciated and/or untapped resource. OBP of course became a bigger phenomena, but since those years many of the statistical-minded teams have placed a greater emphasis on defense. Doug Melvin and co. were trying to do something similar, doing things differently from what everyone else was in an attempt to take advantage of that situation. It may not have worked out (yet) as much as we would like, but it was an interesting approach. One thing about Melvin that he has proven over the years, he definitely thinks outside of the box (he has been involved with some rule changes such as how waiver claims are made and the alternation of draft picks between leagues in both the Rule 4 and 5 drafts).

 

There are reasons to be disappointed with the Brewers and Melvin, but I don't think how the team approaches Latin America is one of them.

[BrewCrewForever]

DePo's blog is pretty good. A guy I work with tipped me to it a few years ago. It's always a good read.

[HiAndTight]

It needs to be constantly mentioned that Gallardo was Melvin going against Jack's opinion

Could you possibly give me a link for this, or anything to substantiate it?

 

I've had trouble finding this, but would like to be able to pull it out when Melvin gets blamed for EVERYTHING that went wrong while Jack Z continues to enjoy rock star like love in Milwaukee.

[HiAndTight]

Wat? Holy Cow I didn't even know this, I just assumed the Brewers sucked at international scouting, b/c who are the top latin american prospects in the organization? Not many is the answer........ God Bless America, holy mackrel...... ok so I'm reading about this from a Baseball America article. So the first thing Doug Melvin did when he got here in 2003 was shut down the Dominican Republic academy, b/c the players weren't developing like they wanted. My solution that would of just been hire better instructors. Not shut down resources, try and "get by" with a few scouts in the area and then send those players to the instructors in the Arizona league. Keep your resources there and bring your instructors to the talent. You're not going to have as much success convincing kids to leave the country to come to you. How do you screw that up so bad?

Here's the problem as I see it with your posts, and I'm trying to be as respectful as possible. You're coming to the party about 7 years late, without having been through it so you can understand the reasons behind the decision, you're looking at the weaknesses this team has and thus concluding, "Melvin stinks, he should be fired".

 

This post right here about not scouting international prospects and sucking at it is is proof positive that while you may have spent a month looking over this franchise, you haven't followed it like most of us have.

 

We would all like to have more international prospects, but so would every team. We signed Pascual when he was the top Dominican pitcher available and that didn't work out, but we made the effort. But we also have one of the strongest contingents of Canadian prospects headlined by Lawrie, we have Peralta and Escobar who both look to be key pieces moving forward as well as a handful of others.

 

And you're also completely and utterly mis-representing the reasons behind closing the DR academy.

 

So while you made the comment that you're trying "correct all the inaccurate" statements we're making, you're kinda just throwing things against the wall in your attempt to "inform us", and they're sliding right down to the floor.

[Never Outhustled]

And you're also completely and utterly mis-representing the reasons behind closing the DR academy.

He didn't make that statement, I did, and I don't see why you think you have the right to insult him just because he's not a Melvin apoligist.

 

We would all like to have more international prospects, but so would every team.

You can't possibly compare us to everyone and say we've done fine. Just compare Milwakee to Colorado. O'Dowd made Latin America a priority when he took over, and they've been awesome there. I'll take Ubaldo Jimenez over an unproductive SS.

[Never Outhustled]

It needs to be constantly mentioned that Gallardo was Melvin going against Jack's opinion

Could you possibly give me a link for this, or anything to substantiate it?

 

I've had trouble finding this, but would like to be able to pull it out when Melvin gets blamed for EVERYTHING that went wrong while Jack Z continues to enjoy rock star like love in Milwaukee.

 

 

Lets not forget that Melvin stated while Prince was in the minors that he wouldn't have let Z draft him if he'd been in charge then. Considering how bad the 1st round was that year I have to believe Melvin would have found someone better.

[Thundercat32]

You can put a team full of sluggers on the field with mediocre pitching and find success as long as the defense isn't bad as well.

 

Ennder,

 

what is your definition of success? If its win a title then I can't think of any teams who fit this formula who have won a title in the last 20 years. If its win the division then I'm sure there are a few examples of teams with this make up who have won a division, but I can't think of any off the top of my head.

[Thundercat32]

There are reasons to be disappointed with the Brewers and Melvin, but I don't think how the team approaches Latin America is one of them.

 

colbyjack,

 

I just don't see how you can feel this way. I asked this earlier and you haven't responded yet, but I'd like to know if the approach was quality over quantity. Then why did Pascual and Peralta not appear until 2006 in the Brewers Arizona league team, when the academy was shut down in 2003? From what you're saying they chose to shut down the academy so they could make these signings and yet it took them 3 years to find their way to camp?

 

Gallardo grew up in El Paso, and went to high school in Fort Worth so he can't count as a Latin American signing. Really what we're left with is Alcides Escobar and a couple of guys none of whom are above the AA level. At least thats what I think I'm hearing. I mean Melvin has been here since '02, so I would like to see a better return than one upcoming shortstop and a couple of high upside AA pitchers. And it should be pointed out Escobar was signed in 2003, the same year the academy was shut down. Which tells me he was likely on the Brewers radar for some time before he was signed. So where are the quality guys we were suppose to be finding in 2004 and later?

 

I also want to say I'm not a know it all, in fact I'm trying to learn. Its just the information I'm being told is incomplete and its leading me to more questions. But I'd like to learn from you guys. Hopefully, you will keep an open mind to my thoughts as well.

Edit: I should say I like your points about Melvin, Canada, and Moneyball.

Double Edit: found this information on Escobar's signing date and his relationship with the DR academy.

"Alcides Escobar worked out for the Brewers for a month before they offered a $30,000 bonus. He signed on July 9, 2003."

"It was Kelvim Escobar who turned on the Brewers to his cousin. He convinced legendary scout Epy Guerrero -- Mike Guerrero's father, who was working for the Brewers at the time -- to take a look at Alcides at the Brewers' academy in the Dominican Republic."

from this article

http://milwaukee.brewers....p;fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

[Thundercat32]

HiAndTight wrote: Here's the problem as I see it with your posts, and I'm trying to be as respectful as possible. You're coming to the party about 7 years late, without having been through it so you can understand the reasons behind the decision, you're looking at the weaknesses this team has and thus concluding, "Melvin stinks, he should be fired".

 

This post right here about not scouting international prospects and sucking at it is is proof positive that while you may have spent a month looking over this franchise, you haven't followed it like most of us have.

 

We would all like to have more international prospects, but so would every team. We signed Pascual when he was the top Dominican pitcher available and that didn't work out, but we made the effort. But we also have one of the strongest contingents of Canadian prospects headlined by Lawrie, we have Peralta and Escobar who both look to be key pieces moving forward as well as a handful of others.

 

And you're also completely and utterly mis-representing the reasons behind closing the DR academy.

 

So while you made the comment that you're trying "correct all the inaccurate" statements we're making, you're kinda just throwing things against the wall in your attempt to "inform us", and they're sliding right down to the floor.

I think you're angry at me or something, lol. I said a couple of things that weren't correct, but I'm new and trying to learn. I've cited several articles and sources in this thread, and nearly everything I say is based in some fashion from an article I read online.

As far as the DR academy goes. I read that in this thread on Saturday night, at the same time I was chatting in the In Game chat. Baldkin said I'm missing that Wendy Selig forced Melvin's hand and essentially forced him to close it down so the franchise could be sold for more money. My question, was if she forced him to close it down in 2003, then why did it take til 2009 to re-open, when Attanasio bought the team in 2004? Nobody's given me an answer on that. In fact, the only answer I've gotten sounds like it was regurgitated from the Brewers front office staff themselves and I quote "Instead of spending a lot of money on a lot of players, we would spend the same amount on fewer and higher-quality players and bring them right to the States." said Brewers director of player development Reid Nichols. Quoted from this article, sixth paragraph down http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090112&content_id=3740907&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Only no one has quoted Brewers assistant general manager Gord Ash, who said "What we thought might be a competitive advantage, wasn't. So we'll go back to the tried and true method of signing and developing players in their native land and then moving from the academy to the U.S. only those who have graduated." (ninth paragraph)

So even though the Brewers have since admitted it was a mistake and that if flat didn't work. I'm catching flack from Melvin supporters for saying the exact same thing Gord Ash said.

Also, please make a note HiAndTight, I can back up what I'm saying here. I'm not throwing things up against a wall.

[Thundercat32]

I'd like to make an observation so far from this thread. Most of the opposition to Paul DePodesta being the new GM of the Brewers is Doug Melvin ain't that bad, not Doug Melvin is better than DePodesta. Thats a huge difference.

 

I said in my OP Doug Melvin isn't terrible and he's probably an above average GM. My position is just DePodesta (or Friedman) would be better.