Brewers Running Game

[rickh150]

Even if the Brewers stole 30 more bases this year(and thrown out 15), they probably wouldn't be a .500 team. THAT being said, I have not been impressed at all at the Brewers running game. I see many flaws and have many questions for our team and manager while watching the Brewers from my couch at home and my seat at Miller Park. Here are a few flaws/questions:

1. How come Weeks only has seven, count'em seven stolen bases? -------------- He supposedly is fast. He is our lead-off hitter and has a respectable OBP at .373. This segways me to #2.

2. How come Brewer players rarely steal on the first or second pitch? I wish that I had a stat to back up my statement(I wouldn't be surprised if there was a stat on this somewhere with the quality of fan at brewerfan.net) on this one. Yet, from my possibly slanted view, I see Brewer players waiting until later in the count to go. Now, I know some counts are more beneficial to running... 2-1, 3-2..Still, if a Brewer has the steal sign, steal the base early. A hit now scores one. It boggles my mind to see Weeks standing at 1B to end the inning or any one with speed not running when there are two outs(except when Fielder is up, maybe.) Weeks always should be on the move when Hart and Braun are at the plate with 0 or 1 out.

3. How many times do you see a fast Brewer(Weeks, Braun, Hart, Escobar) stealing a base and then having the ball fouled away? Are we on the same page here? Some times, that base is stolen, easily. Yet, our player likes the pitch and fouls it away. I know, this happens all around baseball. Yet, I think it happens here more. This brings me to #4.

4. Do we have a steal sign? I hear Schroeder talking about how Gomez has the "green light" anytime that he is on the bases. Yet does he ever have the "red light" in situations? Is there a sign that says that a runner HAS to run on the next pitch. Does the "go" sign, if there is one, change with the pitch count. This would really be interesting news to here from Macha or Randolph since I can only remember once or twice that a double steal was attempted. I feel Macha is very uninterested in the cat and mouse games on the bases and prefers to ignore it with the belief that "it is better to be safe at first, than sorry at 2B."

These questions have been with me all season and last. Some were with me with Yost, as well. To answer myself, the easy answer is that the Brewers shouldn't be concerned with stealing bases since they hit home runs. And also to answer myself, the Brewers have the second(?) most runs in the NL, and pitching is the real problem, so take a chill pill. However, having an organized running attack can help win games. If Weeks can steal second more, if Brewers can steal early in the count, if Brewers have the heads-up to lay off a pitch early in a count to have a SB, and if the coaches can organize a double steal or hit and run in ideal situations with speedy guys on base, double play batter at the plate, and/or ideal count,,,,,, I would be less puzzled, and the Brewers might win an extra 4 or 5 games.

[jjkoestler]

I fell in love with the running game as a kid watching Rickey Henderson play. Stolen bases make the game more exciting, but there is a lot of evidence that suggests that they do not help a team all that much.

 

1: Do we want Weeks getting thrown out at second with Hart, Braun, and Fielder coming up?

2: I don't have the stats either, but I'm guessing the players are attempting to pick up the pitchers move.

3: Those could be failed hit and run attempts.

4: There are definitely red light situations. Gomez on first, runner on third, two outs, and Rickie/Hart/Braun/Prince at bat. Why would Gomez run in that situation?

There is a sign for hit and runs, and I'm not sure why the sign would change for specific counts.

[MNBrew]

I know it's not fashionable to advocate stealing more bases, but....

 

1. The 2010 Brewers seem to have more team speed and more genuine SB threats than any other Brewers team since 1992. Yet they have the 4th fewest SBs in the National League. Only two guys are in double digits (Braun w/ 13, Gomez w/ 10), and barely so at that! (Even w/ his crappy BA & OBP, Gomez should still easily have 30 SBs by now with his unbelievable wheels!)

 

2. With 54 SBs and only 19 CSs (74.0%), the Brewers are practically at that "deal-breaking" 75% success rate. Only Philly (61 SBs & 11 CSs), Florida (63 & 18), & the Mets (93 & 28) have better success rates this year.

 

3. The '92 Brewers stole 256 bases. Yes, they were caught 115 times (a "mere" 69% success rate -- how dare they run so much!). But those '92 Brewers were a constant threat on the bases and I remember on so many occasions that that seriously messed their opponents up. ELEVEN players, including all starters, stole at least 10 bases. It was an available weapon that they used to the fullest.

 

Macha is blatantly contradicting his offseason pledge to run more. In doing so, he's shooting himself & the team in the foot with his unwillingness to utilize one of the team's biggest natural assets. The 2010 Brewers aren't good enough to be able to afford under-utilizing any of its strengths, yet thanks to Macha's utter stubbornness on that point, they undeniably are!

 

There are a number of reasons I don't think Macha deserves to manage this team any longer. His unwillingness to utilize the team's natural speed with an aggressive running game (SBs, hit-and-runs, etc.) reduces the Brewers chances of scoring more runs & winning more games, which to me makes this failure one of the most glaring.

[jerichoholicninja]

At this point why not? I drafted Weeks in one of my leagues expecting a half season of ok offense and lots of SB. So far I'm wrong. I'll agree that stolen bases are a little impractical but when you have the guys to do it, you do it.

[RockCoCougars]

Basically, the answer to your question is that Macha is a dolt. Gomez, Escobar, Weeks, Hart and even Braun have above average speed, but it is not utilized. This team is stealing bases at about a 75% clip, so even the Moneyballers should admit that is a plus. A Tom Trebelhorn or Phil Garner managed team would have at least twice as many steals as this one (and likely many more wins too, but I digress).

[RightFieldCoder]

I don't think this team is having a problem scoring runs.

[The Truth]

Basically, the answer to your question is that Macha is a dolt. Gomez, Escobar, Weeks, Hart and even Braun have above average speed, but it is not utilized. This team is stealing bases at about a 75% clip, so even the Moneyballers should admit that is a plus. A Tom Trebelhorn or Phil Garner managed team would have at least twice as many steals as this one (and likely many more wins too, but I digress).

Yep, that's the whole egg in a nutshell right there. Fire Ken Macha = problem solved

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The whole egg in a nutshell imo is that SBs really don't do much in terms of a team's overall ability to score runs. The fans find them thrilling, and therefore think of them as more valuable than they really are. Not making outs on the basepaths is far more valuable than stealing bases.

 

The top three basestealing teams in the NL (NYM, SDP, & WSN) rank 13th, 11th, and 14th in the NL in runs/game. The top five in the AL (TB, CHW, SEA, OAK, TEX) rank 4th, 7th, 14th, 11th, and 3rd in the AL in runs/game.

 

There is really little to no correlation between stolen bases and runs, let alone stolen bases and wins. If you want a good offense, you want to get on base & slug the ball well. Not surprisingly, the top offenses in the league in runs/game have very good team OPS rates. The top 4 offenses in the NL (runs/game) rank 1st, 2nd, 6th, & 3rd in OPS. The top 4 in the AL rank 2nd, 1st, 5th, and 8th in OPS.

 

I should note the samples/cutoffs I chose in team offensive rankings were where there were clear dropoffs btw. one team & the next.

[topper09er]

Ryan Braun 2010:

___Split G PA SB CS

First Pitch 58 71 2 0

1-0 Count 29 33 2 0

2-0 Count 05 05 0 0

3-0 Count 08 08 0 0

0-1 Count 40 44 2 0

1-1 Count 36 40 0 0

2-1 Count 27 33 3 2

3-1 Count 21 24 0 0

0-2 Count 27 32 1 0

1-2 Count 49 63 3 1

2-2 Count 44 55 0 0

Full Count 53 62 0 0

 

Braun has 16 SB attempts and has

2 on the first pitch

4 on the second pitch

1 on the third pitch

9 on the fourth pitch

0 else

 

So it seems like he actually is running fairly early in the count, although this is just 1 example.

[Ennder]

Weeks is probably just trying to stay healthy.

[viaarete]

I don't think this team is having a problem scoring runs.

Scoring runs does not depend on stolen bases. In fact, attempting steal bases often negates the possibility of scoring runs. Overall, the difference in runs-scored for a team that is base-stealing-happy vs. a team that is base-stealing-afraid is very nearly zero (all else being equal).

The basic logic that (I assume) Macha is using is this:

P1. If attempting to steal bases leads to more runs, then attempt to steal bases when opportunities present themselves.

P2. If attempting to steal bases does not lead to more runs, then do not force the base-steal.

P3. If attempting to steal bases leads to less runs, then do not steal bases.

F4. Stealing bases does not lead to more runs.

C5: Do not force the base-steal.

Statistics show that F4 is true. Therefore, we derive the truth of Premise 2; Do not force the base-steal. If the opportunity presents itself, and the chances are likely that you'll steal a base, take it; if the chances are against you, don't; if the chances are even, don't.

The number of times a runner is on base and the odds are likely that he will steal the next base, is rather small. I would guess that the number of times that a runner has a better-than-average chance of stealing a base are roughly equal to the number of times that Brewers base-runners have attempted to steal bases. There are not many pitcher-catcher combinations that provide statistical-advantage for base-stealers, nor are there many situations that provide a similar advantage; since base-stealing is generally an even-split bet. If the only times the Brewers are taking it is when they're in a better-split bet, it doesn't surprise or annoy me that they're attempting fewer stolen bases.

[topper09er]

F4. Stealing bases does not lead to more runs.

C5: Do not force the base-steal.

Statistics show that F4 is true.

This is clearly false, if you look at every possibel stolen base situation and you assume the runner advances it ALWAYS increased a teams chances of scoring runs.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php

 

You are talking about the correlation between runs scored over an entire season with stolen bases for a team. This correlation is low because runs are most strongly correlated with OPS so they follow that trend and number of stolen bases do not always correlate well with OPS so runs and SBs have a lot of scatter.

 

However, just because leading the league in SB will not cause you to lead the league in runs does not mean they will never cause you gain some runs. They only weakly correlate to runs over a long season. This is where good managing can come into the picture, just because you know you should not run at every oppurtunity does mean there are no good oppurtunities to run. Example, base stealer on first, 2 outs, Counsell up. The chances of scoring from 1st are much less that from second since Counsell is mostly a singles hitter. The famous RoSox Dave Roberts stolen base in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS added 10% win probability, which is much, much higher than an average stolen base. That is an example of a good manager knowing when to take advantage of the stolen base. The reason Macha is a horrible manager is because he just plays it safe all the time. He knows overall you should not steal a lot so he just decides to never steal because he cant figure out the times when you actually should, thus making him a terrible manager.

 

[GAME05]

thanks for some great research in those posts, guys.

 

despite numbers contradicting me, i'm still more old-school in thinking that having running threats on base is still an advantage. it seems like an opposing pitcher would feel a lot more free to throw changeups and curveballs when the guy on first likely isn't going to steal. if we stole more bases, wouldn't an opposing pitcher be forced to throw a lot more fastballs to get the ball to the plate sooner? suddenly the pitcher would become a lot more predictable, not to mention distracted by a guy leading off too far. and certainly we've got a lot of good fastball hitters on this team. this is the biggest reason why i dislike Macha, because he is going to manage whatever team he's with according to his set style and not adjust his approach to suit a team's strength, which in our case is speed.

[Baldkin]

this is the biggest reason why i dislike Macha, because he is going to manage whatever team he's with according to his set style and not adjust his approach to suit a team's strength, which in our case is speed.

I'm pretty sure the team's strength is hitting HR's. The 'Crew could very well have 6 of 8 positions hitting 20+ HRs this season. 4 of them hitting 30+. They are 2nd in the NL (Cincinatti) and 5th in MLB in slugging.

As for pitchers changing their approach, the count and hitter will always be more important than whether someone is on 1B. Wouldn't the pitcher be more likely to throw a sinker in hopes of getting a double play grounder?

[TooLiveBrew]

However, just because leading the league in SB will not cause you to lead the league in runs does not mean they will never cause you gain some runs

 

Of course successful stolen bases will help to score more runs. The problem, to me, is that getting caught stealing does far more harm than a successful SB does good. Iirc 75%-ish is the minimum threshold that makes stealing bases an acceptable risk, right? Wouldn't that mean that if you steal at a 75% rate that you're just barely not hurting yourself overall? If that's the case, you'd have to steal at a much better rate to really have it make a noticeable impact.

 

Who on the team really should be running more? Hart has lost speed from when he first entered the league, Braun runs at about the right frequency imo, Gomez has been an efficient basestealer this season but has only gotten on base 29% of the time, and Weeks has (imo) both lost some speed and I think Ennder's point on his health factors in. That leaves Escobar, who also has done poorly in the OBP department, and most often has been in front of the pitcher in chances to steal. Clearly getting thrown out is bad, but getting thrown out and then having your pitcher lead off the next inning is really indefensible. And Escobar hasn't been too efficient stealing bases this season, to boot.

 

Getting caught stealing is a really, really bad way to make an out. Add in the point Baldkin underscores, that this team's strength is slugging, and it really isn't a bad thing that the Brewers don't steal more bases.

[The Truth]

The top three basestealing teams in the NL (NYM, SDP, & WSN) rank 13th, 11th, and 14th in the NL in runs/game. The top five in the AL (TB, CHW, SEA, OAK, TEX) rank 4th, 7th, 14th, 11th, and 3rd in the AL in runs/game..

Sincerely I think you have a better grasp on stats and how they effect baseball than I do. And I can't argue with the above in regards to the NL teams mentioned. However I would point to Tampa Bay and the White Sox as 2 teams who are in the playoff race in part specifically because of how well they steal bases and utilize speed on the bases (along with pitching and defense of course)

 

It is a heckuva lot easier to score from 2nd on a single than to score from first. It is also decidedly impossible to score from 2nd by tagging up on a fly ball. The Brewers have players like Escobar and Gomez who are elite baserunners being completely underutilized (plus Braun, Hart & Weeks). I believe that that the Brewers would score more runs if they ran alot more

 

[TooLiveBrew]

However I would point to Tampa Bay and the White Sox as 2 teams who are in the playoff race in part specifically because of how well they steal bases and utilize speed on the bases (along with pitching and defense of course)

 

I think I can agree on Tampa, but I can't on Chicago. Tampa's success rate is a stellar ~80%, while the ChiSox have actually hurt themselves overall more than helped so far, at ~67%. Overall, the main reason both of those teams are in the playoff race is their strong pitching.

 

The thing that I think gets lost in SB discussions is that attempting to steal bases more frequently does not = stealing bases more frequently. You have to have very, very good basestealers (like the Rays do) to make lots of basestealing attempts worthwhile. If you're going to get caught once every three times like the ChiSox so far this season, you're better off not running at all.

[RockCoCougars]

In my view, successful base stealing equals a greater chance to score runs. Think back to when Estrada was catching for the Brewers. How many runs do you think his pathetic arm cost the team? The point is that if you are playing a team with a poor throwing catcher, you should exploit it. I wonder how many games this season the Brewers have more than one steal. I would guess not many. Just another example of why Macha needs to go. I can hardly wait until Macha is gone, less than 60 days.

[topper09er]

TooLiveBrew[/b]]Iirc 75%-ish is the minimum threshold that makes stealing bases an acceptable risk, right?

 

Depending on where you look it is a little different but the threshold is more like 66%, 2 SB for every 3 trys is the cuttoff. Almost all base stealers, including the brewers mentioned here, are above that rate.

[TooLiveBrew]

Where are you getting 66%? I definitely remembered the threshold being higher than that. Not that I can provide a link off-hand... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[MNBrew]

Yes, the Brewers' main offensive weapon is the HR. Their record when they don't hit HRs, though, is atrocious. Those sorts of times are when they need to make things happen -- create opportunities to have better chances to score when they aren't happening so easily on their own.

 

The whole reason this relative lack of running is such a problem this year in particular is that they need to find more ways to create runs when they're NOT hitting HRs. SBs are one way to do so, and one this team has a the skills to really make the SBs happen. The problem is that Macha hardly takes advantage of that asset.

 

The point is utilizing as many ways as you can to gain an advantage. The more "diverse" your offense -- the more different things your offense can be quite good at -- the better chance you give your team to win. By being SO (and often solely) reliant on the HR, Macha limits the Brewers chances to score more runs and, therefore, ultimately, to win.

 

TLB, I agree w/ you on many things. But I don't believe the 75% SB success rate thing to be foolproof, iron-clad, and gospel, much as many believe it so. How do you possibly hurt yourself when you're successful gaining an extra base 2 out of every 3 times? I will agree that some of the "extra" outs create do hurt. But gaining the extra base 2/3 of the time will help you more than making an "avoidable" out hurts you 1/3 of the time. . . . Inevitably, you have to approach baserunning aggressively but still smartly & sensibly. But Macha just basically ignores it as an option altogether.

[TooLiveBrew]

How do you possibly hurt yourself when you're successful gaining an extra base 2 out of every 3 times? I will agree that some of the "extra" outs create do hurt.

 

I know no threshold would be iron-clad. Just asking about the 'accepted' discuss-able threshold. As for the 2/3 rate, I think of it this way -- you only get 27 outs in a game. Is advancing one base worth the 33% chance that you'll lose one of those 27 outs? When a team slugs the ball as well as the Brewers (not just HRs, mind you), I'm not sure that it's worth the risk.

 

 

Inevitably, you have to approach baserunning aggressively but still smartly & sensibly. But Macha just basically ignores it as an option altogether.

 

The first sentence I agree with wholeheartedly. The second sentence, I'm not sure. It's not like the Brewers were burning up the basepaths under Yost. I think Melvin's approach is one that views the risk involved with making outs on the basepaths as > the reward of stealing more bases.

[Baldkin]

The whole reason this relative lack of running is such a problem this year in particular is that they need to find more ways to create runs when they're NOT hitting HRs. SBs are one way to do so, and one this team has a the skills to really make the SBs happen. The problem is that Macha hardly takes advantage of that asset.

If you can identify ahead of time which games they will and will not be hitting HR's or doubles, then by all means, turn on the running game when they won't be.

I just don't think you can do that.

 

With a team with such a high slugging as the Brewers, the SB% would have to be much higher. Guys should be running when Lucroy, Escobar, Gomez and the pitcher are up as they need "more help" to get the run home. Not when Weeks through McGehee are hitting, which is why Rickie should almost never steal a base. The guys hitting behind him hit way too many HR's and doubles, which will score him from first anyway.

[topper09er]

Where are you getting 66%? I definitely remembered the threshold being higher than that. Not that I can provide a link off-hand... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

"One of the biggest Sabrmetric cons out there is the notion that you need a 75% success rate stealing bases to help your team. These are the actual era break-even values for SB% that Palmer’s model came up with:

 

1901-1920: ~62.5%

1921-1940: ~64%

1941-1960: ~65.5%

1961-1977: ~63%

 

 

That averages to about 63.5% from 1900-1977. In this offensive era of ours, the percentage is probably right around 66.6% -- 2/3 rather than the ¾ that stolen base naysayers would have you believe."

 

http://baseballevolution.com/keith/linearw.html

 

 

[MNBrew]

The whole reason this relative lack of running is such a problem this year in particular is that they need to find more ways to create runs when they're NOT hitting HRs. SBs are one way to do so, and one this team has a the skills to really make the SBs happen. The problem is that Macha hardly takes advantage of that asset.

If you can identify ahead of time which games they will and will not be hitting HR's or doubles, then by all means, turn on the running game when they won't be.

I just don't think you can do that.

Of course you can't. But if you make basestealing more a part of your game all the time, you've got a functional option already in place when the power part isn't happening.

 

What this different mindset would seem to do is help reduce or balance out the all-or-nothing factor that's been so much the Brewers' case in recent years. And they have the tools to do it this year.